Lineup Discussions

[oldtimer]

Another win tonight cuts the magic number to three. A couple of comments about the lineup. First, it was great to see Pedey come out of his slump in such a meaningful way after many days of taking the collar. He has been nursing a sore knee and when he gets things going, the Sox are so much better.

 

The second comment is not a criticism but more of a question. Why put Young in against a RH pitcher when Beni was available? I can think of several possible reasons.

1. JF wants to keep both LF's sharp for the playoffs.

2. They want Beni to rest between games to get back to 100% following his injury.

3. Young has some history of hitting the starting pitcher.

4. JF wanted more balance in the lineup at the back end, going righty/lefty, etc.

 

 

As it turned out, Young didn't register a hit but that can happen to anyone. Bogey was also hitless tonight.

[Nick]

Another win tonight cuts the magic number to three. A couple of comments about the lineup. First, it was great to see Pedey come out of his slump in such a meaningful way after many days of taking the collar. He has been nursing a sore knee and when he gets things going, the Sox are so much better.

 

The second comment is not a criticism but more of a question. Why put Young in against a RH pitcher when Beni was available? I can think of several possible reasons.

1. JF wants to keep both LF's sharp for the playoffs.

2. They want Beni to rest between games to get back to 100% following his injury.

3. Young has some history of hitting the starting pitcher.

4. JF wanted more balance in the lineup at the back end, going righty/lefty, etc.

 

 

As it turned out, Young didn't register a hit but that can happen to anyone. Bogey was also hitless tonight.

 

Beni did not start the night before in favor of Holt. Probably nothing.

[Emp9]

Cute anecdotes aside, why would the Sox stand still when Ortiz retires? They will be losing much of the meat of the order. That is okay if you do not plan on trying to get better or at least try to keep pace with other teams that upgrade.

 

The question is what pieces will be brought in.

 

I don't believe the Sox will "stand pat" this off season.

 

I don't believe they will stand pat either. With the already post-season bound young core on this team, I think the FO will try to keep striking while the iron is hot while they can (even if that means another pricey long term contract to EE). Why waste the opportunity(s). At least thats how I think the FO & ownership will look at it.

[Nick]

I don't believe they will stand pat either. With the already post-season bound young core on this team, I think the FO will try to keep striking while the iron is hot while they can (even if that means another pricey long term contract to EE). Why waste the opportunity(s). At least thats how I think the FO & ownership will look at it.

 

FO was in full force at the trade deadline. Can you imagine this group sitting at a table and NOT one person bringing up the fact that our DH is not returning for 2017 season? It's DD's job to do everything he can to win the division again. It's silly to think we'll stand pat.

[Kimmi]

And still, not one person has suggested that the team will stand pat.

[Dojji]

I wouldn't mind if we brought in a lower-impact option. Say a 1 year rental of Kendrys Morales from the Royals. After a tough year I imagine KC will do some selling so he's likely available, and I think they'll pick up Morales' option in order to trade it. He'd be a decent fit here I think, as well, although obviously not anwhere near Papi's caliber. You're not going to replace Ortiz with another Ortiz, so just get a pretty good DH for a reasonable price and move on, find new value in other positions. I'd like to see them spend again on the pitching, that's really the area where you can't spend too much money. Edited September 25, 2016 by Dojji

[Nick]

And still, not one person has suggested that the team will stand pat.

 

Few are suggesting we can compensate the loss internally. I doubt FO is penciling in Pablo as a replacement without a back up plan. You know, the great one that got beat out by Travis Shaw that's part of worst 'position' producer for current Sox.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn't mind if we brought in a lower-impact option. Say a 1 year rental of Kendrys Morales from the Royals. After a tough year I imagine KC will do some selling so he's likely available, and I think they'll pick up Morales' option in order to trade it. He'd be a decent fit here I think, as well, although obviously not anwhere near Papi's caliber. You're not going to replace Ortiz with another Ortiz, so just get a pretty good DH for a reasonable price and move on, find new value in other positions. I'd like to see them spend again on the pitching, that's really the area where you can't spend too much money.

 

I tend to agree with this approach although I wouldn't be looking strictly for a DH, but instead a guy who could play third or first and also be a decent hitter. My goal would be to keep the length of contract down to a year or two if possible so we don't repeat some of our past mistakes. We can use pitching and I can see the need for 2 RP's and if a SP comes available that could help us at any reasonable contractual basis, it would be good if we are flexible enough financially to go for it.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't mind if we brought in a lower-impact option. Say a 1 year rental of Kendrys Morales from the Royals. After a tough year I imagine KC will do some selling so he's likely available, and I think they'll pick up Morales' option in order to trade it. He'd be a decent fit here I think, as well, although obviously not anwhere near Papi's caliber. You're not going to replace Ortiz with another Ortiz, so just get a pretty good DH for a reasonable price and move on, find new value in other positions. I'd like to see them spend again on the pitching, that's really the area where you can't spend too much money.

 

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Not necessarily Morales and not necessarily a strict DH, but it doesn't have to be Encarnacion either.

[Kimmi]

Few are suggesting we can compensate the loss internally. I doubt FO is penciling in Pablo as a replacement without a back up plan. You know, the great one that got beat out by Travis Shaw that's part of worst 'position' producer for current Sox.

 

I would not count on Pablo as being the guy, but I also would not count him out.

[cp176]

I wouldn't mind if we brought in a lower-impact option. Say a 1 year rental of Kendrys Morales from the Royals. After a tough year I imagine KC will do some selling so he's likely available, and I think they'll pick up Morales' option in order to trade it. He'd be a decent fit here I think, as well, although obviously not anwhere near Papi's caliber. You're not going to replace Ortiz with another Ortiz, so just get a pretty good DH for a reasonable price and move on, find new value in other positions. I'd like to see them spend again on the pitching, that's really the area where you can't spend too much money.

 

Not an unreasonable way to go for sure if there is a free agent starter out there who could be targeted. Who would it be next year? If there was a big pitching target available this year, I could see them doing this or maybe trying to solve the issue with the dh from within. But, if there is not someone out there, I don't think that we need to try to save any of Mr. Henry's money. I'm happy that he is willing to spend it.

[oldtimer]

Maybe this is the best place for discussion of the lineup going into the post season based on the game against the Blue Jays tonight. JF went with Holt in the two spot replacing Bogaerts. In addition, he moved Betts to 3rd in the order and pushed Ortiz to 4th. This has the impact of having righty/lefty through to Hanley. Bogaerts moved on behind Hanley. On the surface this looks interesting as Shaw has moved out of the starting lineup. In addition, Mookie has seemed to lose power over the last period so putting him up ahead of Ortiz as still a great hitter but more of a speedy on base guy seems smart.

 

One problem though is Holt may not be optimum at 3rd in that me didn't make a couple of fielding plays perhaps a Shaw would have made. It's just a case of trying to optimize results and Holt is the better hitter.

 

Clearly Benintendi has been a great addition to the lineup, starting the damage in the 4 run inning tonight with a nice double and then getting on again with an infield hit based on his good speed. He may also offer an option for top of the order instead of Holt.

 

At this point though we have Hanley cooling off from his great production of only a week or so ago and JBJ dangerous but not producing regularly. I think Bogaerts is starting to hit again although he is still getting fooled too often.

 

Great win for the Sox and congratulations to Ortiz for coming through in the clutch yet again. He hit the ball well tonight with 2 hits, 3 RBI and another liner that was caught on an excellent play.Pedroia also looked very good tonight.

[moonslav59]

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Not necessarily Morales and not necessarily a strict DH, but it doesn't have to be Encarnacion either.

 

How about signing Justin Turner to a 2 years deal as a bridge to Devers, and then trade Moncada, Swihart, Kopech, Owens, Johnson and Basabe for Quintana and Robertson.

[Kimmi]

How about signing Justin Turner to a 2 years deal as a bridge to Devers, and then trade Moncada, Swihart, Kopech, Owens, Johnson and Basabe for Quintana and Robertson.

 

Looking at the season that Turner had, I don't think he's going to be had for a 2 year deal. Outside of that, I'd be good with that if Dombrowski could pull it off.

[Kimmi]

Maybe this is the best place for discussion of the lineup going into the post season based on the game against the Blue Jays tonight. JF went with Holt in the two spot replacing Bogaerts. In addition, he moved Betts to 3rd in the order and pushed Ortiz to 4th. This has the impact of having righty/lefty through to Hanley. Bogaerts moved on behind Hanley. On the surface this looks interesting as Shaw has moved out of the starting lineup. In addition, Mookie has seemed to lose power over the last period so putting him up ahead of Ortiz as still a great hitter but more of a speedy on base guy seems smart.

 

One problem though is Holt may not be optimum at 3rd in that me didn't make a couple of fielding plays perhaps a Shaw would have made. It's just a case of trying to optimize results and Holt is the better hitter.

 

Clearly Benintendi has been a great addition to the lineup, starting the damage in the 4 run inning tonight with a nice double and then getting on again with an infield hit based on his good speed. He may also offer an option for top of the order instead of Holt.

 

At this point though we have Hanley cooling off from his great production of only a week or so ago and JBJ dangerous but not producing regularly. I think Bogaerts is starting to hit again although he is still getting fooled too often.

 

Great win for the Sox and congratulations to Ortiz for coming through in the clutch yet again. He hit the ball well tonight with 2 hits, 3 RBI and another liner that was caught on an excellent play.Pedroia also looked very good tonight.

 

You are way overanalyzing line ups.

[oldtimer]

You are way overanalyzing line ups.

 

I'll bet that JF and his coaches are doing just the kind of tradeoff thinking that I rambled through and more.

[oldtimer]

How about signing Justin Turner to a 2 years deal as a bridge to Devers, and then trade Moncada, Swihart, Kopech, Owens, Johnson and Basabe for Quintana and Robertson.

 

You certainly are willing to give up a lot. Hope DD is not so generous.

[Spudboy]

I'll bet that JF and his coaches are doing just the kind of tradeoff thinking that I rambled through and more.

 

Probably so. However, Kimmi has posted strong evidence that lineup construction ( batting order ) is far less a factor than everyone has been led to believe it is.

 

Just because a manager or team continues to subscribe to long held ideas and strategies, does not mean that those ideas and strategies are most effective or even relevant.

[moonslav59]

Looking at the season that Turner had, I don't think he's going to be had for a 2 year deal. Outside of that, I'd be good with that if Dombrowski could pull it off.

 

Well, if we had to go longer on Turner, who by the way has had 3 big years in a row, we could plan on moving him or Devers to 1B once hanRam's deal is up, or we move HanRam to DH.

[moonslav59]

You certainly are willing to give up a lot. Hope DD is not so generous.

 

I've been against almost very prospect trade we've made, but I've always been willing to give up a lot to get a lot. Quintana is an ace with one more year than Sale. Robertson solves our set-up man issue for 2 more years. Owens and Johnson are not much to give up. Basabe might turn out very good, so basically I'm giving up 3.5 top prospects. I'm thinking it might not be enough..

[oldtimer]

Probably so. However, Kimmi has posted strong evidence that lineup construction ( batting order ) is far less a factor than everyone has been led to believe it is.

 

Just because a manager or team continues to subscribe to long held ideas and strategies, does not mean that those ideas and strategies are most effective or even relevant.

 

True, but on the other hand managers often bring in relievers based on matchups, lefty on lefty and so on. When the lineup has with many of righties or lefties in a row, it makes it easier for the manager to match up. The Blue Jays are constructed that way. The Guardians have a lot of switch hitters and are not so easy. Of course you need quality hitters not just matchups. I believe every team sets their lineups up with table setter types followed by power hitters to try and produce the maximum runs. They also want to get their best hitters up the most often possible in a game so they bat them early in a game to maximize their AB's. There are time tested strategies that do work.

[oldtimer]

How about signing Justin Turner to a 2 years deal as a bridge to Devers, and then trade Moncada, Swihart, Kopech, Owens, Johnson and Basabe for Quintana and Robertson.

 

I agree that we could use a third baseman free agent and Turner is a reasonable FA to go after to bridge the gap until we can develop a rookie. Will that be Moncada or Devers? I don't have an answer there as both could use more development. The answer to which rookie would impact who we could trade to get pitching.The other question is what to do with Sandoval and could he bridge the gap. I am not a big Sandoval supporter here, but his salary means he has to be considered. At 32 now Turner probably has a couple of good years left in him but would have to make the switch to the American league

 

I like the idea of trading for Quintana if we can do so without stripping the team of too many of the solid prospects. I know it will take a lot to get him and he will be sought after by many teams with offers of their own. Giving up 3 of our 4 top pitching prospects is a lot, even if we get Robertson as well. I would rather trade one or two of our ML pitchers, say Barnes and Abad, and one pitching prospect. Also, I would find it difficult to let go of a 5 tool prospect without trying harder to develop him. Basabe has a high potential as well if he can fill out a little. Swihart I would reluctantly let go of and possibly Devers. I have trust in DD as a leader who will

[Kimmi]

I'll bet that JF and his coaches are doing just the kind of tradeoff thinking that I rambled through and more.

 

I'm sure that they are, and they would be overanalyzing lineups too. For every positive effect you have for moving a player up or down, their is a nearly equal countereffect elsewhere. In the end, it just doesn't matter much.

[Kimmi]

Probably so. However, Kimmi has posted strong evidence that lineup construction ( batting order ) is far less a factor than everyone has been led to believe it is.

 

Just because a manager or team continues to subscribe to long held ideas and strategies, does not mean that those ideas and strategies are most effective or even relevant.

 

It has been jokingly suggested that a manager could pull his lineup out of a hat everyday and win as many games over the season as he would by setting his lineup. There is more truth to that notion than most people believe.

[Kimmi]

True, but on the other hand managers often bring in relievers based on matchups, lefty on lefty and so on. When the lineup has with many of righties or lefties in a row, it makes it easier for the manager to match up. The Blue Jays are constructed that way. The Guardians have a lot of switch hitters and are not so easy. Of course you need quality hitters not just matchups. I believe every team sets their lineups up with table setter types followed by power hitters to try and produce the maximum runs. They also want to get their best hitters up the most often possible in a game so they bat them early in a game to maximize their AB's. There are time tested strategies that do work.

 

Now there is something to doing the lefty right thing. A manager is better off breaking up his lefties to avoid easy matchups for opposing managers than he is trying to micromanage every single spot in the lineup.

[moonslav59]

I think the lefty-righty thing is over-used by managers. I can see trying to avoid three straight like-sided batters, especially if they are close in batting skill levels, but the late game relief pitcher match-up is usually just 20-25% of a player's PAs in a given game, it doesn't even come up in many games, and when it does come up, pinch hitters are available, if needed.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the lefty-righty thing is over-used by managers. I can see trying to avoid three straight like-sided batters, especially if they are close in batting skill levels, but the late game relief pitcher match-up is usually just 20-25% of a player's PAs in a given game, it doesn't even come up in many games, and when it does come up, pinch hitters are available, if needed.

 

I think the idea is that the L-R thing can be crucial when it does arise in those late and close situations.

 

Pinch hitters are sometimes available and sometimes a complete non-issue - it could be the 3-4-5 hitters we're talking about.

[moonslav59]

I think the idea is that the L-R thing can be crucial when it does arise in those late and close situations.

 

Yes, it can be crucial, but so can having a lesser hitter up earlier for the first, second, third and sometimes fourth time around the line-up until you get to that late-inning situation that may not even occur in many games.

 

Sure, if players are close to being even, then mixing up the lefties and righties makes a lot of sense, but sometimes I think managers go over-board based on 1 PA out of 3-5 in a game. Early innings are "crucial" too.

 

Also, not all righty and lefty hitters are equally bad or good vs a certain armed pitcher. Some lefties are better than some righties on their own team vs lefties. Switching them around may not even create better match-ups, at times.

 

[moonslav59]

I'd rather adjust the line-up using the splits vs the starter. That way you maximize PAs and chances to score early or in a players first 2-4 PAs rather than just the last one.

 

Here's our splits from 2015-2016:

 

vs RHPs

1.047 Ortiz

.875 JBJ

.873 Betts

.816 Pedey

.766 Young

.761 Ramirez

.761 Bogey

.751 Shaw

.733 Pablo

.732 Holt

.727 Swihart

.705 Leon

.573 Hanigan

.527 Vazquez

 

vs LHPs

.986 Young

.916 Ramirez

.882 Bogey

.829 Betts

.822 Pedey

.808 Castillo

.777 Ortiz

.770 Hill

.761 Shaw

.759 Leon

.748 JBJ

.684 Holt

.673 Swihart

.649 Hanigan

.465 Pablo

 

As you can see, Pedey's splits are very similar, so moving someone around in order to avoid having a righty up before or after him makes little sense. Betts hits lefties very well, so I don't see how putting another lefty up before or after him matters much.

 

I think it's more important to put Young in every line-up vs LHPs and to put him in the top 5 hitters. It's easy to PH for him late in the game.

 

Some players have massive disparities in their splits, and I feel they should be dropped or raised in the order at least by 1 slot according to their strong preferences. Maybe something like this...

 

vs RHP

1) R Pedey

2) L JBJ

3) R Betts

4) L Ortiz

5) R Ramirez

6) R Bogey

7) L Beni

8) L Shaw

9) S Leon

 

vs LHPs

1) R Pedey

2) R Bogey

3) R Betts

4) L Ortiz

5) R Ramirez

6) R Young

7) L JBJ

8) S Leon

9) S Hernandez/ R Hill

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

I think the lefty-righty thing is over-used by managers. I can see trying to avoid three straight like-sided batters, especially if they are close in batting skill levels, but the late game relief pitcher match-up is usually just 20-25% of a player's PAs in a given game, it doesn't even come up in many games, and when it does come up, pinch hitters are available, if needed.

 

Perhaps it is overused. My point is that lineup changes are so insignificant that a manager will get a better advantage out of splitting his lefties than he will from worrying about whether someone bats 3rd or 4th.