07/10 Sox vs. Rays - Break out the brooms.

[illinoisredsox]

I thought Eckersley made a very good point about Price morphing into a different type of pitcher. He's no longer the flame thrower he was as a kid so he's adjusting his game accordingly. Luckily, Price has always been a pitcher as opposed to being a thrower and has decent secondary pitches, so the transition should go fine for him.

[mvp 78]

Eck is the greatest. He calls out Farrell. He adds to the baseball discussion rather than rag on someone's polo shirt. Plus, he's not Steve Lyons.

[Maxbialystock]

Could someone please explain to me why ERA is luck and team dependent? To me the ERA was designed if not arbitrated by pitchers to blame their failings on the defense. For example, if an error is made with two outs, all future runs are unearned no matter how many, dingers, walks, WP's,or other hits the pitcher then gives up in that inning. For another, runs are unearned when the pitcher is making the errors causing the unearned runs. This gets really funny when the pitcher gets a perfect GIDP one hopper with men on 1B and 2B and promptly throws the ball into centerfield. I just don't see how the ERA disadvantages pitchers. To me its the absence of the unearned run that would make a pitcher's runs average (vice ERA) luck and team dependent. Edited July 12, 2016 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

Could someone please explain to me why ERA is luck and team dependent? To me the ERA was designed if not arbitrated by pitchers to blame their failings on the defense. For example, if an error is made with two outs, all future runs are unearned no matter how many, dingers, walks, WP's,or other hits the pitcher then gives up in that inning. For another, runs are unearned when the pitcher is making the errors causing the unearned runs. This gets really funny when the pitcher gets a perfect GIDP one hopper with men on 1B and 2B and promptly throws the ball into centerfield. I just don't see how the ERA disadvantages pitchers.

 

This is literally the craziest thing about ERA.

[illinoisredsox]

Could someone please explain to me why ERA is luck and team dependent? To me the ERA was designed if not arbitrated by pitchers to blame their failings on the defense. For example, if an error is made with two outs, all future runs are unearned no matter how many, dingers, walks, WP's,or other hits the pitcher then gives up in that inning. For another, runs are unearned when the pitcher is making the errors causing the unearned runs. This gets really funny when the pitcher gets a perfect GIDP one hopper with men on 1B and 2B and promptly throws the ball into centerfield. I just don't see how the ERA disadvantages pitchers. To me its the absence of the unearned run that would make a pitcher's runs average (vice ERA) luck and team dependent.

 

Luck. Pitcher A gives up 3 infield choppers and reasonably deep fly ball will likely allow 1 earned run. 3 seeing eye singles or bloops and said fly will may yield 2 earned runs. No decent contact has been made but the pitcher has allowed 1-2 runs. Next/bottom half of the inning, Pitcher B has 3 fly balls hit to the triangle in center that go 419 feet but are caught on the run by the CF. No runs allowed, but who really had the better inning?

 

Team dependent: obviously a team with a great defense, especially infield, will probably allow fewer earned runs. The late 60s/early 70s Orioles had vacuum cleaners in Brooks Robinson and Mark Belanger on the left side of the infield. It took a howitzer shot to get the ball past them. The Sox of the same era had Rico Petrocelli at short and Guys like George Scott and Joe Foy at 3rd. Decent players but not exactly guys with a ton of range over there.

 

And I guess the deal with the pitchers' errors merely reflects that once a pitch is thrown, the pitcher is considered the same as any other fielder. I know the rules are different for number of bases awarded if a pitcher throws a ball into the stands as a pitcher (say trying to pick a guy off first) vs. any fielder throwing it there on a ball in play. I can see points on both sides of that discussion.

 

Like everything else in baseball, aa these things tend to even out over time and players rise or sink to the level they are supposed to.

[Bellhorn04]

Could someone please explain to me why ERA is luck and team dependent? To me the ERA was designed if not arbitrated by pitchers to blame their failings on the defense. For example, if an error is made with two outs, all future runs are unearned no matter how many, dingers, walks, WP's,or other hits the pitcher then gives up in that inning. For another, runs are unearned when the pitcher is making the errors causing the unearned runs. This gets really funny when the pitcher gets a perfect GIDP one hopper with men on 1B and 2B and promptly throws the ball into centerfield. I just don't see how the ERA disadvantages pitchers. To me its the absence of the unearned run that would make a pitcher's runs average (vice ERA) luck and team dependent.

 

It's team dependent because a pitcher with a good defense behind him will have more runs saved than a pitcher with a bad defense. For example JBJ will run down more balls than an inferior CFer. This has nothing to do with errors. It has to do with fielding range.

 

As for pitcher errors, ERA is meant to measure the pitcher's pitching, not his fielding.

 

As for the luck part, well, you're probably disgusted enough already.

[Kimmi]

You can declare victory if that makes you feel better.

 

It has nothing to do with declaring victory.

[Kimmi]

Discussions about 'luck' in baseball make me all tingly inside.

[a700hitter]

It has nothing to do with declaring victory.

Now you have lost me.

[Maxbialystock]

ERA eliminates some of the luck by not counting runs caused by errors or, for that matter, passed balls. But luck is also an intrinsic part of baseball that lessens as the statistical sample gets larger, and this especially applies to the ERA. Wins and losses are another matter.

[Kimmi]

ERA eliminates some of the luck by not counting runs caused by errors or, for that matter, passed balls. But luck is also an intrinsic part of baseball that lessens as the statistical sample gets larger, and this especially applies to the ERA. Wins and losses are another matter.

 

The main idea is that much of what happens after the pitcher makes his pitch is out of the pitcher's control, be it due to luck or to the team playing behind him. Therefore, ERA is not the best measure of how good a pitcher is. DIP stats like xFIP and Sierra do a better job of predicting future ERA than actual ERA does.

[mvp 78]

The main idea is that much of what happens after the pitcher makes his pitch is out of the pitcher's control, be it due to luck or to the team playing behind him. Therefore, ERA is not the best measure of how good a pitcher is. DIP stats like xFIP and Sierra do a better job of predicting future ERA than actual ERA does.

 

It's not a great number, but it has a decent amount of value as it is something we've all been familiar with for most of our lives. When you see a guy with a 2.25 ERA, it generally shows that he has been pitching well. If you see a guy with an ERA above 5, it shows that the pitcher has been knocked around and may not have kept his team in as many games as the fans would have liked.

 

It's why Price's ERA is spoken of more frequently on here than his FIP. His FIP is only .20 higher than his career average. However, his ERA is 1.2 above his career average.

 

We can talk about how a pitcher will do in the future, but it's just guesswork. We can definitively talk about the results from previous games.

[Kimmi]

It's not a great number, but it has a decent amount of value as it is something we've all been familiar with for most of our lives. When you see a guy with a 2.25 ERA, it generally shows that he has been pitching well. If you see a guy with an ERA above 5, it shows that the pitcher has been knocked around and may not have kept his team in as many games as the fans would have liked.

 

It's why Price's ERA is spoken of more frequently on here than his FIP. His FIP is only .20 higher than his career average. However, his ERA is 1.2 above his career average.

 

We can talk about how a pitcher will do in the future, but it's just guesswork. We can definitively talk about the results from previous games.

 

I do not disagree at all. I don't think ERA is worthless, by any means. I often use it myself, as I did in this discussion of Price. However, Price's 4.34 ERA is somewhat misleading in terms of how effectively he has pitched. All I'm saying is that it's not the best measure of how well a pitcher has performed.

[mvp 78]

ARR YOU READY FOR SOME BASEBALL?!?!? Are you? It's been a while.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox -- Yankee baseball. Good way to start the second half.