6/7 @ The San Francisco Baseball Giants

[iortiz]

Shields has had a much better career than Porcello, and I would still rather hand the ball to him than Porcello.

 

He would've been a better bet. If Porcello wants to succeed in Boston, he needs to keep the ball in the park like in 2014 --HR/FB% 9%--. The problem is that his career HR/FB% is at 12% and keep growing.

[iortiz]

Three years ago? Hell yeah. 2016? Hell no. Be realistic.

 

Nope. Shields has been consistent in 2016. Porcello hasn't. Shields has had only one bad start. Before that bad start --which was his last one -- he had been a 3.0 ERA pitcher.

 

Also, Shields was better in 2013, 2014 and 2015. What are you talking about?

[a700hitter]

Three years ago? Hell yeah. 2016? Hell no. Be realistic.

He was much better than Porcello last season. You don't have to go back 3 years. This year Shield has had some problems, but if I had to hand someone the ball, I would rely on Shields track record and hand it to him instead of Porcello, who should be worshiping at the altar of of BC.

[User Name]

He was much better than Porcello last season. You don't have to go back 3 years. This year Shield has had some problems, but if I had to hand someone the ball, I would rely on Shields track record and hand it to him instead of Porcello, who should be worshiping at the altar of of BC.

 

2015: 94 ERA+ , 1.33 WHIP, 33 HR's allowed (led the Majors) pitching half his games at Petco. Sorry, don't buy it. He'd have gotten demolished at the AL East.

[a700hitter]

2015: 94 ERA+ , 1.33 WHIP, 33 HR's allowed (led the Majors) pitching half his games at Petco. Sorry, don't buy it. He'd have gotten demolished at the AL East.

Shields always gave up a lot of Home Runs, but was still very successful. Porcello is supposed to be a sinker ball pitcher. His Home Run rate spike is a new development, and he has not been successful with his new approach.

[iortiz]

2015: 94 ERA+ , 1.33 WHIP, 33 HR's allowed (led the Majors) pitching half his games at Petco. Sorry, don't buy it. He'd have gotten demolished at the AL East.

 

You don't have to look at sabermetrics. You don't even need to look at basic stats. Porcello was one of the worst pitchers in 2015 in all baseball --- if not the worst. It's not even debatable. Even a 10 YO kid can realize that.

[User Name]

Shields always gave up a lot of Home Runs, but was still very successful. Porcello is supposed to be a sinker ball pitcher. His Home Run rate spike is a new development, and he has not been successful with his new approach.

 

So last year's numbers aren't a sharp decline from career norms even while pitching in the weakest stadium for hitting in the Majors? Ted, this is an argument you are simply not going to be able to justify. I mean, Shields still provides IP and he's pretty good, but it's clear he's just not as good at run-prevention as he used to be. He's been giving up a ton more solid contact and home runs since last year, and that happens. Father time affects everyone.

[a700hitter]

So last year's numbers aren't a sharp decline from career norms even while pitching in the weakest stadium for hitting in the Majors? Ted, this is an argument you are simply not going to be able to justify. I mean, Shields still provides IP and he's pretty good, but it's clear he's just not as good at run-prevention as he used to be. He's been giving up a ton more solid contact and home runs since last year, and that happens. Father time affects everyone.

Sure he is in decline. I never said that he wasn't, but he did always give up a lot of Home Runs even in his bet season. And last year, he was still better than Porcello, imo.

[iortiz]

So last year's numbers aren't a sharp decline from career norms even while pitching in the weakest stadium for hitting in the Majors? Ted, this is an argument you are simply not going to be able to justify. I mean, Shields still provides IP and he's pretty good, but it's clear he's just not as good at run-prevention as he used to be. He's been giving up a ton more solid contact and home runs since last year, and that happens. Father time affects everyone.

Father time hasn't knocked his door yet. His run prevention estimators in the last 3 years have been solid. His SIERA and xfip in 2013, 2014 and 2015 are where -- if not better-- his career numbers say. Also the Ks still there. Not sure what you are talking about.

Edited June 8, 2016 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Sure he is in decline. I never said that he wasn't, but he did always give up a lot of Home Runs even in his bet season. And last year, he was still better than Porcello, imo.

 

Porcello was arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields was not in that category by any means.

[mvp 78]

You don't have to look at sabermetrics. You don't even need to look at basic stats. Porcello was one of the worst pitchers in 2015 in all baseball --- if not the worst. It's not even debatable. Even a 10 YO kid can realize that.

The worst? Nope. There were a dozen starting pitchers last year that had a worse WAR than Porcello.

[a700hitter]

The worst? Nope. There were a dozen starting pitchers last year that had a worse WAR than Porcello.

That must have been some Dirty Dozen!

[iortiz]

The worst? Nope. There were a dozen starting pitchers last year that had a worse WAR than Porcello.

As I said, one of the worst --- but to me the worst I saw last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Shields has a career ERA of 5.42 at Fenway in 13 starts with an .808 OPS against.

[a700hitter]

Shields has a career ERA of 5.42 at Fenway in 13 starts with an .808 OPS against.

If he played for the Red Sox, he wouldn't have to face them. Lackey i think also had some terrible Fenway #'s before joining the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

If he played for the Red Sox, he wouldn't have to face them.

 

True, but it may be more about how the ballpark fits his game.

[a700hitter]

Lackey's career ERA against the Red Sox is 5.25, and I would rather hand him the ball than Porcello.

[iortiz]

Lackey's career ERA against the Red Sox is 5.25, and I would rather hand him the ball than Porcello.

 

If Shields is declining, what can we say regarding Porcello? Is he in his prime or in decline?

I'm confused. LOL!

Edited June 8, 2016 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

If Shields is declining, what can we say regarding Porcello? Is he in his prime or in decline?

I'm confused. LOL!

 

Porcello does have some career-best numbers this year (WHIP & K/BB). He has an ERA+ of 109. I'm not his biggest fan either but at least there are some positive things in his numbers.

[iortiz]

Porcello does have some career-best numbers this year (WHIP & K/BB). He has an ERA+ of 109. I'm not his biggest fan either but at least there are some positive things in his numbers.

 

As I salid early, his K/BB and other metrics will be meaningless if he can't keep the ball in the field. That's the key. If he can make the adjustments and keep the ball inside the field he will be ok, otherwise expect to see a 2015 Porcello again moving forward, mostly because we still have a bunch of games against ALE teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Over his last 20 games, going back to when he came off the DL last year, he has pitched 133 innings - 6.65 per start - with a 3.65 ERA.

[illinoisredsox]

Home runs don't bother me. It's what damage is done with those home runs that matters.

 

Porcello has allowed 148 home runs in his career. 86 have been solo, 44 have been with 1 on, 17 with 2 on and 1 grand slam. That ratio really hasn't changed with Boston. For Boston, he's allowed 37 total, 22 solo, 13 2 run and 2 3 run. Solo homers don't mean much and 2 run homers normally don't kill you. Of course, you can't give up 3 or 4 of them in a game.

 

Put another way, a solo homer is 4 total bases and 1 run. 4 singles is also 4 total bases, but would normally score 2 runs and there's still 2 men on base.

[iortiz]

Also his k/9 and BB/9 has regressed significantly since April.

[Bellhorn04]

Also his k/9 and BB/9 has regressed significantly since April.

 

His BB/9 has been excellent all year. In his last 4 starts he's only given up 3 walks.

[iortiz]

Home runs don't bother me. It's what damage is done with those home runs that matters.

 

Porcello has allowed 148 home runs in his career. 86 have been solo, 44 have been with 1 on, 17 with 2 on and 1 grand slam. That ratio really hasn't changed with Boston. For Boston, he's allowed 37 total, 22 solo, 13 2 run and 2 3 run. Solo homers don't mean much and 2 run homers normally don't kill you. Of course, you can't give up 3 or 4 of them in a game.

 

Put another way, a solo homer is 4 total bases and 1 run. 4 singles is also 4 total bases, but would normally score 2 runs and there's still 2 men on base.

HRs are the key issue this year for him. He is not a better pitcher for this. His HR/FB% is at 15.4% That's insane.

[iortiz]

His BB/9 has been excellent all year. In his last 4 starts he's only given up 3 walks.

 

His K/BB by Month.

 

April 6

May 2.88

 

Yeah he is not walking too much people but I expect a regression here. He is a 5.9 K/9 and 2.15 BB/9. Also He is not a 15% HR/FB% but his career is at 12%.... That's what worries me. If you put those career numbers in a mixer, you will likely have a 4.5 ERA pitcher.

[User Name]

iortiz will never let facts get in the way of a good argument.

[mvp 78]

As I said, one of the worst --- but to me the worst I saw last year.

 

You not see any CC Sabathia starts last year?

[mvp 78]

That must have been some Dirty Dozen!

 

It included Rubby DelaRosa aka Pedro Jr.

[mvp 78]

Shields has a career ERA of 5.42 at Fenway in 13 starts with an .808 OPS against.

 

He too was worse than Porcello last year!