Christian Vazquez

[Station 13]

From a 2007 Baseball America scouting report on Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263051.html

 

From ACTUALLY watching Swihart hit, he makes contact and hits liners, unlike Salty.

[harmony]

From ACTUALLY watching Swihart hit, he makes contact and hits liners, unlike Salty.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 93 and 92, respectively, while Blake Swihart has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92.

 

Saltalamacchia has a career fWAR of 9.5 as he approaches his 32nd birthday in May. Swihart already has accumulated 1.9 fWAR as he approaches his 25th birthday in April. It should be interesting to see who finishes with a higher career WAR total.

 

I suspect the Red Sox would be happy if Swihart's age 25 season approximates the age 25 season of Seattle's Mike Zunino, another catcher who peaked at No. 17 on the Baseball America prospect rankings. Last year Zunino posted a wRC+ of 138 in 327 plate appearances at Triple A before posting a wRC+ of 115 in 192 plate appearances at the MLB level. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for most catchers but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects 2017 WAR of 2.4 for Zunino and 1.4 for Swihart.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

[oldtimer]

Agree - I actually think that both Vazquez and Swihart are unknown quantities. Leon certainly is no sure thing but we at least have an idea of what we might have. If Swihart is ever going to catch at the major league level, he needs to prove that he can catch better! that shouldn't happen in Boston. If Vazquez is ever going to start behind the plate in Boston, he needs to prove that he is a better overall catcher than Leon. No small task. I get what all of the projections say about both Swihart and Vazquez but to date they haven't reached those lofty projections. Sticking either one of them behind the plate in Boston and letting them learn as you go wouldn't be a very smart thing for this franchise to do in my opinion. For these two guys we should find out this year (if you will pardon the expression) whether or not the bear shits in the buckwheat! Time for these boys to get it done.

 

I keep thinking of Leon with his 5'11", 235 # frame and how unlikely he can last a season with his weight leading to a breakdown or at least exhaustion. Perhaps the Sox believe Sandy can play regularly at that weight, but I doubt it.

[moonslav59]

I keep thinking of Leon with his 5'11", 235 # frame and how unlikely he can last a season with his weight leading to a breakdown or at least exhaustion. Perhaps the Sox believe Sandy can play regularly at that weight, but I doubt it.

 

Maybe he'll be the next "Pudge".

 

On a more serious note, I'm not sure his weight is an issue.

[cp176]

I keep thinking of Leon with his 5'11", 235 # frame and how unlikely he can last a season with his weight leading to a breakdown or at least exhaustion. Perhaps the Sox believe Sandy can play regularly at that weight, but I doubt it.

 

He did look a little heavy even for a blocky solid type catcher I'll give you that. He is still young though and I have to say that I like the bigger body behind the plate. He might not last for long but I think that he is the best of the bunch right now. I might see it differently if I felt that Vazquez was better than Leon behind the plate but I don't.

[cp176]

Catchers are notoriously hard to project accurately.

 

There is also a significant subgroup of good catchers who don't really become "good" until they reach 30 and older.

 

We have three question mark catchers, but they all have significant promise. Flipping a coin three times to try to get one heads is not bad odds.

 

I'd say we have a 50-50 chance two end up being plus catchers overall (and I count how a catcher handles the staff).

 

If I am reading this correctly, I am hearing that you think Leon because of his age, could become even a better catcher than he is right now. Obviously I think that you are really talking Swihart and Vazquez but I think that people tend to think that Leon is older than he is. I am going to predict that if Vazquez or Swihart beat him out for that job in the near future, we are talking about an all-star caliber catcher. I would not take that bet. If Leon stays healthy, I don't think that it will happen.

[Fisk]

From a 2007 Baseball America scouting report on Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263051.html

They definitely missed on Salty, had many holes in his swing. If you actually watched Swihart there is a big difference.

[Fisk]

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 93 and 92, respectively, while Blake Swihart has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92.

 

Saltalamacchia has a career fWAR of 9.5 as he approaches his 32nd birthday in May. Swihart already has accumulated 1.9 fWAR as he approaches his 25th birthday in April. It should be interesting to see who finishes with a higher career WAR total.

 

I suspect the Red Sox would be happy if Swihart's age 25 season approximates the age 25 season of Seattle's Mike Zunino, another catcher who peaked at No. 17 on the Baseball America prospect rankings. Last year Zunino posted a wRC+ of 138 in 327 plate appearances at Triple A before posting a wRC+ of 115 in 192 plate appearances at the MLB level. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for most catchers but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects 2017 WAR of 2.4 for Zunino and 1.4 for Swihart.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

I would be very disappointed if he follows Zuninos career path , since he struggles to get above the Mendoza line, and is a strikeout machine. Projections are wrong quite often, again if you have watched Swihart you should know he is nothing like Zunino and Salty. Rushed to big leagues in 15 because of injuries a year before his time, he was very good in second half of 15.

[moonslav59]

If I am reading this correctly, I am hearing that you think Leon because of his age, could become even a better catcher than he is right now. Obviously I think that you are really talking Swihart and Vazquez but I think that people tend to think that Leon is older than he is. I am going to predict that if Vazquez or Swihart beat him out for that job in the near future, we are talking about an all-star caliber catcher. I would not take that bet. If Leon stays healthy, I don't think that it will happen.

 

I do like the odds of Vaz or Swi eventually beating out Leon, but I still include Leon in the mix. I'm just saying "plus catcher" not allstar. I'd say, in general, all three are close to 50-50 for becoming a plus catcher. That gives us very good odds one will make it there. If I had to bet, I'd bet two make it not one.

[moonslav59]

Remember Geaorge Kottarus?

 

There's another miss.

 

Lavarnway another.

[Fisk]

I do like the odds of Vaz or Swi eventually beating out Leon, but I still include Leon in the mix. I'm just saying "plus catcher" not allstar. I'd say, in general, all three are close to 50-50 for becoming a plus catcher. That gives us very good odds one will make it there. If I had to bet, I'd bet two make it not one.

 

I would be surprised if Leon hits anything like he did last year. Eventually I think Vaz will catch 100 games a year, Swihart the rest, but with the ability to play other positions.

[harmony]

I would be very disappointed if he follows Zuninos career path , since he struggles to get above the Mendoza line, and is a strikeout machine. Projections are wrong quite often, again if you have watched Swihart you should know he is nothing like Zunino and Salty. Rushed to big leagues in 15 because of injuries a year before his time, he was very good in second half of 15.

Mike Zunino was rushed as well by a Seattle organization notorious for poor player development, making his MLB debut at age 22 years, 79 days, in contrast to Swihart's debut at 23 years, 29 days (Jarrod Saltamacchia made his MLB debut on his 22nd birthday).

 

It's not as if a single rogue projection is down on Blake Swihart. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts are all bearish on Swihart, ranking him behind Zunino in the near future, including significant disparity in defensive abilities.

 

Indeed, projections are often wrong. Swihart could be better -- or worse -- than the current projections.

[Fisk]

I'm guessing they are down on him because of his injury last year, I look at the demand for him this offseason and the sox refusal to trade him. Very new behind the plate if you look at write ups on him most say he should be an above average catcher. If that doesn't happen should have the bat to move all around the field. Sorry do not want anyone in my lineup who strikes out 40% of the time, and this year barely hit over the Mendoza line.

[Spudboy]

I would be very disappointed if he follows Zuninos career path , since he struggles to get above the Mendoza line, and is a strikeout machine. Projections are wrong quite often, again if you have watched Swihart you should know he is nothing like Zunino and Salty. Rushed to big leagues in 15 because of injuries a year before his time, he was very good in second half of 15.

 

I've all but given up on reminding this board of Swihart's value. No one seems to care what he did in 2015. It was all too random and SSS!!!1!1!1

[harmony]

I'm guessing they are down on him because of his injury last year, I look at the demand for him this offseason and the sox refusal to trade him. Very new behind the plate if you look at write ups on him most say he should be an above average catcher. If that doesn't happen should have the bat to move all around the field. Sorry do not want anyone in my lineup who strikes out 40% of the time, and this year barely hit over the Mendoza line.

With career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92, and lower projections, Blake Swihart might have enough bat to stay behind the plate but I question whether Swihart has the bat to be a starter at any other position.

[Fisk]

With career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92, and lower projections, Blake Swihart might have enough bat to stay behind the plate but I question whether Swihart has the bat to be a starter at any other position.

 

You need to read scouting reports on him and watch his swing and discipline, there is such a thing called scouting . Also look up his second half stats from 15.

[Kimmi]

With career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92, and lower projections, Blake Swihart might have enough bat to stay behind the plate but I question whether Swihart has the bat to be a starter at any other position.

 

Swihart has not been given a fair chance to succeed yet. He has been put into situations before he was ready, because of the needs of the team. In both cases, he did an admirable job considering the circumstances. I wouldn't sell him short just yet.

[moonslav59]

I would be surprised if Leon hits anything like he did last year. Eventually I think Vaz will catch 100 games a year, Swihart the rest, but with the ability to play other positions.

 

I doubt anyone thinks Leon will hit like last year or even close to last year, but he could drop 200 points and Vaz gain 50, and he'd still be ahead of Vaz in OPS.

 

Leon has also pretty much proven he's good on defense.

 

I do still think the odds that Vaz or Swi pass Leon in overall value at some point in time-- maybe not this year, but it's just an opinion not based on anything but gut instinct.

 

[Fisk]

I doubt anyone thinks Leon will hit like last year or even close to last year, but he could drop 200 points and Vaz gain 50, and he'd still be ahead of Vaz in OPS.

 

Leon has also pretty much proven he's good on defense.

 

I do still think the odds that Vaz or Swi pass Leon in overall value at some point in time-- maybe not this year, but it's just an opinion not based on anything but gut instinct.

 

Leon looked so lost in September and October, have no confidence in him.

[Bellhorn04]

Leon looked so lost in September and October, have no confidence in him.

 

The pitching was great in September though, and Leon should get some credit for that alone.

[Fisk]

The pitching was great in September though, and Leon should get some credit for that alone.

 

It's probably his job to lose and he deserves that, would be surprised if he is our starting catcher in the second half.

[cp176]

It's probably his job to lose and he deserves that, would be surprised if he is our starting catcher in the second half.

 

I really think that it will boil down to which of these two is the better hitter with respect to the immediate future. They are both pretty good catchers. I can see that there is a lot of love here for Vazquez, but I really don't see him as a better catcher at this time than Leon. It may really boil right down to whether the Red Sox hang on to Swihart and how he progresses as a backstop.

[Fisk]

Vazquez is another year removed from tommy John surgery, should be better this year.

[moonslav59]

Leon looked so lost in September and October, have no confidence in him.

 

Vaz looked lost all season.

 

Like I said, I think all our 3 catchers have a close to a 50-50 chance of becoming a plus catcher someday.

 

I feel Vaz is already a plus on defense. Leon is probably a plus as well. Swihart needs growth on defense.

 

Swihart looks to have the best hit tool and should be better than the other two right now on offense, if given a chance.

 

Overall, hey are probably all close to average- maybe a little below, but I think all are young enough to expect improvement.

 

Remember, the Catcher OPS in MLB last year was .702.

 

Out of the top 30 catchers by OPS last year, here are some of their OPS numbers:

 

.568 Carlos Perez

.583 Derrick Norris

.587 Dioner Navarro

.629 James McCann

.629 Travis d'Arnaud

.630 Saltalamacchia

.631 Chris Iannetta

.684 Jason Castro

.684 Miguel Montero

.699 F Cervelli

.702 Tucker Barnhart

 

You only had to hit .631 to get out of the bottom quintile (5th) last year among starters.

[cp176]

Vazquez is another year removed from tommy John surgery, should be better this year.

 

That is a good point and it might turn out to be his year. I just want the best one that we can have back there doing the job.

[Fisk]

That is a good point and it might turn out to be his year. I just want the best one that we can have back there doing the job.

 

It's a good spot to be in to ave three major league catchers, looking at the bright side Swihart has the tools to be a good defensive catcher,just needs more reps. I think eventually Vazquez will be an average hitter with good plate discipline, but probably will never develop power.

[moonslav59]

It's a good spot to be in to ave three major league catchers, looking at the bright side Swihart has the tools to be a good defensive catcher,just needs more reps. I think eventually Vazquez will be an average hitter with good plate discipline, but probably will never develop power.

 

Remember, Swihart did not become a catcher until his junior year in college, so his age/growth curve should be given some slack. His injury last year prolonged that curve.

 

Vaz's injury set him back a big notch.

 

Leon has been around a lot, but he hasn't gotten many long looks over recent years. Innings as a catcher (minors + majors):

Leon

2012: 509

2013: 819

2014: 360

2015: 490

2016: 839

(~560/season over the last 3 years)

 

The median MLB starting catcher got about 900 innings last season.

 

Vaz

2012: 847

2013: 837

2014: 911

2015: none

2016: 790

 

Swihart

2012: 546 (first year in professional baseball)

2013: 868

2014: 845

2015: 835

2016: 182 (Injured) and 205 in OF

 

As you can see, other than the injury seasons, Vaz & Swi were catching more innings than Leon since 2012.

 

I think Leon has room for growth, even though he's 2-3 years older than the other two.

 

(Again, I still like Vaz and Swi better in projected future overall value.)

 

 

 

[harmony]

Remember, Swihart did not become a catcher until his junior year in college, so his age/growth curve should be given some slack. His injury last year prolonged that curve.

Blake Swihart, who never played in college after being drafted out of high school, has played six professional seasons (one season more than Mike Zunino, who in 2012 culminated a three-year college career with the College Player of the Year Award won by Andrew Benintendi in 2015).

 

Swihart played nothing but catcher in his first five professional seasons:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

Edited February 9, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Blake Swihart, who never played in college after being drafted out of high school, has played six professional seasons (one season more than Mike Zunino, who in 2012 culminated a three-year college career with the College Player of the Year Award won by Andrew Benintendi in 2015).

 

My bad. I meant junior year in HS. He played SS and pitcher beforehand.

[moonslav59]

Blake Swihart, who never played in college after being drafted out of high school, has played six professional seasons (one season more than Mike Zunino, who in 2012 culminated a three-year college career with the College Player of the Year Award won by Andrew Benintendi in 2015).

 

Swihart played nothing but catcher in his first five professional seasons:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

 

Swihart had 6 PAs in 2011 but never caught an inning. Hes' essentially played in 5 professional seasons (2012 to 2016). He only caught in 4 seasons before 2016.

 

His first "real" season saw him catch only 546 innings: his last season only 182. Swihart has 3275 total innings behind the plate (minors + Majors).

 

Zunino broke into professional baseball the same year as Swihart (2012). He has 4,146 innings behind the plate in his 5 professional seasons combined (minors+ majors). That's about 25% more than Swi.