Christian Vazquez

[oldtimer]

We have a pretty good core of AAA back-ups for non-pitchers:

 

C (LF) Swihart (Romanski)

1B Travis (Craig)

2B, SS, 3B Hernandez (Marrero & Miller))

3B Dominguez

OF Lake & Brentz (Castillo/Craig)

DH Witte

 

 

 

Devers will likely make it to AAA sometime this year and should be considered a 3rd base prospect.

[moonslav59]

Devers will likely make it to AAA sometime this year and should be considered a 3rd base prospect.

 

I doubt he'll be viewed as ML ready for 2017, so I left him off the list.

 

He struggled out of the gate after his last promotion, but that doesn't mean he will at AA. There is a chance he jumps to AAA this year, and if he's doing very well, and we need a 3Bman, I guess there's a slight chance he could be 3B depth.

 

Right now, we have Holt, Rutledge, and Hernandez behind Pablo. If we have to go deeper than that, I can see a scenario where Devers passes Dominguez on the depth charts.

[moonslav59]

Blake Swihart is a 24 year old kid, so I'm pretty sure that he has some time to improve defensively, as well as offensively. There's a reason why it's always reported that the Sox have no interest in trading him.

 

Young, very athletic catchers who hit effectively from both sides of the plate don't exactly grow on trees, but "natural" catchers who can't hit seem to be pretty common in baseball.

 

It's too bad Swi got rushed into ML action and started his countdown to arbs and free agency. We still have 5 years of control, so there's time for him to develop into a decent defensive catcher and still get 3-4 years out of him.

 

Maybe I'm being pessimistic on Swi, but I still see him ending up in LF or at 1B/3B someday in the next year or two.

 

I know Sox management proclaimed he was going to be a catcher only in 2017, but I think they felt that way going into 2016 as well.

[notin]

It's too bad Swi got rushed into ML action and started his countdown to arbs and free agency. We still have 5 years of control, so there's time for him to develop into a decent defensive catcher and still get 3-4 years out of him.

 

Maybe I'm being pessimistic on Swi, but I still see him ending up in LF or at 1B/3B someday in the next year or two.

 

I know Sox management proclaimed he was going to be a catcher only in 2017, but I think they felt that way going into 2016 as well.

 

While I like the idea of moving Swihart to third and ditching Sandoval, it may never happen. But we do at least know Swihart is most definitely in the Sox plan for the immediate future. Dombrowski made two trades last week with teams that need catchers, and still held on to Swihart. I find it hard to believe the White Sox were more interested in Basabe and Diaz than Swihart. ...

[moonslav59]

While I like the idea of moving Swihart to third and ditching Sandoval, it may never happen. But we do at least know Swihart is most definitely in the Sox plan for the immediate future. Dombrowski made two trades last week with teams that need catchers, and still held on to Swihart. I find it hard to believe the White Sox were more interested in Basabe and Diaz than Swihart. ...

 

Do you think there was ever talk of Swihart instead of Kopech?

[notin]

Do you think there was ever talk of Swihart instead of Kopech?

 

Rick Hahn doesn't return my calls, but at some point you know he asked for Moncada, Kopech and Swihart. Probably Rodriguez as well. Look what he got Rizzo to give up for Adam Eaton. ...

[Hugh2]

Devers will likely make it to AAA sometime this year and should be considered a 3rd base prospect.

 

I suspect Devers will spend most of the year in AA. I can see a late season call up to AAA if he performs well but he's very young and has been a level a year guy to date.

[moonslav59]

I suspect Devers will spend most of the year in AA. I can see a late season call up to AAA if he performs well but he's very young and has been a level a year guy to date.

 

...and is still significantly younger than most players at the level he has been at.

[mvp 78]

We've seen with Beni and Moncada that they've promoted the guys they want fast tracked. If Devers has a strong start, I can see them pushing him to AAA just to have him closer to Boston in case of injury.

[Foe-Jarmer]

We've seen with Beni and Moncada that they've promoted the guys they want fast tracked. If Devers has a strong start, I can see them pushing him to AAA just to have him closer to Boston in case of injury.

 

They were also guys who had the talent to be fast tracked.. Not saying that Devers doesn't have that same talent but we should also keep in mind that we've been spoiled the last few years by super young guys like Machado, Trout, Betts, Xander etc bursting onto the scene in their early twenties and that's not really the norm for most.

 

I'm totally fine with giving Devers the time needed before promoting him. We can make due at 3rd for the next year or two while he develops.

[Hugh2]

We've seen with Beni and Moncada that they've promoted the guys they want fast tracked. If Devers has a strong start, I can see them pushing him to AAA just to have him closer to Boston in case of injury.

 

Benintendi is also almost 2.5 years older than Devers. Benintendi I believed turned 22 while in Portland while Devers will be 20 all year there. Also Benintendi had some exposure to high competition in college. He was much more polished than Devers.

 

Moncada was also a freak prospect, with freak athleticism that the Sox thought could help them in some capacity even if it was just his speed. He was obviously rushed.

 

Now, I'm not saint and I've been wrong before, but if the 3B situation isn't working out in Boston I suspect they will look to make a trade before they rush Devers. Devers is very young, and he's notoriously a slow starter. He's consistently taken time to adjust at every level, but he always has as well. I have very high optimism that he's going to be a star one day but he doesn't strike me as the next 20 year old in Boston. If he gets his cup of coffee at the end of 2018 he'll still of reached the majors by 21 which will be well below the average age of a MLB debut. I think we've been spoiled with a recent wave of young studs that make us hope they all can fly through the system.

 

If I'm wrong, and I am often, I'll be the happiest guy on the board next year.

[moonslav59]

I think we got Rutledge and Dominguez to fill the gap between AA and MLB 3B starter. Hernandez & Holt are also short term options with a chance at surprising us.

[mvp 78]

We've seen with Beni and Moncada that they've promoted the guys they want fast tracked. If Devers has a strong start, I can see them pushing him to AAA just to have him closer to Boston in case of injury.

 

I still stand by this statement despite your hand wringing.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have fast-tracked players in the past. Fred Lynn spent 53 games in AA and was promoted to AAA the next year with a September call up that same year. He never went back...just 678 minor league PAs total.

 

Bogey and Betts both moved through the farm quickly, but Bogey did get 378 minor league games under his belt before being rushed into 3B duty in 2013. Betts played 299 games on the farm. Both of these guys started out in the Sox system with no college or organized ball before hand. Beni and Moncada had different backrounds. If you count Moncada's Cuban games, he ended up with 298 games under his belt before his hasty call-up this year. Beni played 151 games hop-skipping through the minors, including jumping from AA to MLB, but he also played 126 games at Arkansas, so again, we see over 275 games under a player's belt before a ML call-up.

 

Although Devers has 313 games under his belt with the Sox, he started at age 17 and was still at A+ ball to end the 2016 season. I don't see the same tracking as others listed above. The fact that he struggled at his new level this year makes me think we may be more cautious with Devers, but if he starts out well, I think I side with MVP on this one.

Edited December 19, 2016 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Sox aren't fast tracking Devers. Every prospect is different, and Devers really seems like a year a level kind of guy. Guys can always force a teams hand, but I think Devers would have to play really really really really well to do that.

 

As I said earlier, if 3rd base turns into a mess this year I'd wager on the Sox trading for a stop gap.

[moonslav59]

Sox aren't fast tracking Devers. Every prospect is different, and Devers really seems like a year a level kind of guy. Guys can always force a teams hand, but I think Devers would have to play really really really really well to do that.

 

As I said earlier, if 3rd base turns into a mess this year I'd wager on the Sox trading for a stop gap.

 

Agreed, but I could see Devers in AAA at the end of the season...not MLB. That is, if he doesn't struggle out of the gate like he did in AA.

 

[sk7326]

The Sox have fast-tracked players in the past. Fred Lynn spent 53 games in AA and was promoted to AAA the next year with a September call up that same year. He never went back...just 678 minor league PAs total.

 

Bogey and Betts both moved through the farm quickly, but Bogey did get 378 minor league games under his belt before being rushed into 3B duty in 2013. Betts played 299 games on the farm. Both of these guys started out in the Sox system with no college or organized ball before hand. Beni and Moncada had different backrounds. If you count Moncada's Cuban games, he ended up with 298 games under his belt before his hasty call-up this year. Beni played 151 games hop-skipping through the minors, including jumping from AA to MLB, but he also played 126 games at Arkansas, so again, we see over 275 games under a player's belt before a ML call-up.

 

Although Devers has 313 games under his belt with the Sox, he started at age 17 and was still at A+ ball to end the 2016 season. I don't see the same tracking as others listed above. The fact that he struggled at his new level this year makes me think we may be more cautious with Devers, but if he starts out well, I think I side with MVP on this one.

 

Fast tracking vs not fast tracking is really about each individual player and the org plan. That is why looking at the numbers on the farm is such a dicey proposition. The job at the minor league level is not to win - a pitcher could have a 4.50 ERA because he is being told to throw his 3rd best pitch a lot. Benintendi was the Golden Spikes winner playing in the toughest college league in the country - the Sox started him in Lowell and Greenville, and he crushed them, but that was also inferior competition to what he had been facing at Arkansas. He had inferior superficial numbers to Moncada this season on the farm, but clearly was much better equipped to succeed with the big club. He showed the evaluators stuff that they needed to see from him

 

Devers is so young - he had a good season in Salem, making a lot of contact. Has he done enough to start at AA? Possibly - but it is really about whether he fulfilled the org goals. Devers was among the youngest regulars in High A and if he is in AA he will be the youngest regular there too.

 

I tend to believe the old adage - players make these decisions for the org largely.

Edited December 20, 2016 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

Fast tracking vs not fast tracking is really about each individual player and the org plan. That is why looking at the numbers on the farm is such a dicey proposition. The job at the minor league level is not to win - a pitcher could have a 4.50 ERA because he is being told to throw his 3rd best pitch a lot. Benintendi was the Golden Spikes winner playing in the toughest college league in the country - the Sox started him in Lowell and Greenville, and he crushed them, but that was also inferior competition to what he had been facing at Arkansas. He had inferior superficial numbers to Moncada this season on the farm, but clearly was much better equipped to succeed with the big club. He showed the evaluators stuff that they needed to see from him

 

Devers is so young - he had a good season in Salem, making a lot of contact. Has he done enough to start at AA? Possibly - but it is really about whether he fulfilled the org goals. Devers was among the youngest regulars in High A and if he is in AA he will be the youngest regular there too.

 

I tend to believe the old adage - players make these decisions for the org largely.

 

Great post.

[southpaw777]

Blake Swihart is a 24 year old kid, so I'm pretty sure that he has some time to improve defensively, as well as offensively. There's a reason why it's always reported that the Sox have no interest in trading him.

 

Young, very athletic catchers who hit effectively from both sides of the plate don't exactly grow on trees, but "natural" catchers who can't hit seem to be pretty common in baseball.

 

Theyre keeping him right now to get his value up and for insurance. My guess is the team values a more defensive catcher that can call games and pitch frame. Sure Swihart can learn to play any position. Hes one hell of an athlete.. My opinion, from seeing these situations is that the guy like swihart is usually a liability behind the plate....but hey, kids got a stick so screw the D right? EVERYONE has to hit for a high average...we have the best, or one of the best offenses in the game right now. If some of you value a better hitter and a worse defender behind the plate, well then I guess we will agree to disagree.

Swihart, although much more athletic, reminds me of Lavarnway behind the dish stabbing at balls and looking somewhat awkward...yes, he will get better, but ill go with the guy whos got the D, been catching since popping out of the womb, and all the intangibles catching for my team...swihart could possibly bring back a nice haul to restock the farm a little...im not saying I dont like or want him...I just prefer a defensive minded catcher.

Edited December 21, 2016 by southpaw777

[southpaw777]

I still stand by this statement despite your hand wringing.

 

They wouldnt have got Dominguez (3b) if they had those plans for Devers.

Theybwont rush him. Theres really no need to. Let him get off to a fast start and enjoy some sustained success and build that confidence. Now, if hes just dominating then of course he will force them to make a move if 3b is an issue...remember, if Pablo stays in shape and performs like he can then Devers will remain in the minors...

[mvp 78]

They wouldnt have got Dominguez (3b) if they had those plans for Devers.

Theybwont rush him. Theres really no need to. Let him get off to a fast start and enjoy some sustained success and build that confidence. Now, if hes just dominating then of course he will force them to make a move if 3b is an issue...remember, if Pablo stays in shape and performs like he can then Devers will remain in the minors...

 

That's all I was ever saying.

[Hugh2]

Agreed, but I could see Devers in AAA at the end of the season...not MLB. That is, if he doesn't struggle out of the gate like he did in AA.

 

 

That's the most realistic path for Devers. Of course there is a wide range of outcomes and players can always force the issue but I see very few paths to the majors for Devers next year....in 2018 it's a different story. I tend to not even think about a guy being MLB ready and thinking about where we can pencil him in until he's showing you something in AA.

[moonslav59]

They wouldnt have got Dominguez (3b) if they had those plans for Devers.

Theybwont rush him. Theres really no need to. Let him get off to a fast start and enjoy some sustained success and build that confidence. Now, if hes just dominating then of course he will force them to make a move if 3b is an issue...remember, if Pablo stays in shape and performs like he can then Devers will remain in the minors...

 

And, first we'll try Holt and Hernandez before even trying Dominguez (or some sort of L-R platoon with Dominguez).If they don't work out, we may go outside the system before rushing Devers.

[moonslav59]

The one big step Devers took this year that he needed to take, and what made me feel like Moncada was expendable was on defense.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Theyre keeping him right now to get his value up and for insurance. My guess is the team values a more defensive catcher that can call games and pitch frame. Sure Swihart can learn to play any position. Hes one hell of an athlete.. My opinion, from seeing these situations is that the guy like swihart is usually a liability behind the plate....but hey, kids got a stick so screw the D right? EVERYONE has to hit for a high average...we have the best, or one of the best offenses in the game right now. If some of you value a better hitter and a worse defender behind the plate, well then I guess we will agree to disagree.

Swihart, although much more athletic, reminds me of Lavarnway behind the dish stabbing at balls and looking somewhat awkward...yes, he will get better, but ill go with the guy whos got the D, been catching since popping out of the womb, and all the intangibles catching for my team...swihart could possibly bring back a nice haul to restock the farm a little...im not saying I dont like or want him...I just prefer a defensive minded catcher.

 

I don't think anyone is saying "screw the defense" or "everyone has to hit for a high average." I'm just not as ready as you are to trade Swihart and hand the reigns over to Vasquez, because he was a a "born catcher."

 

He needs to show that he won't be an automatic out, or he'll be a career backup. There are lots of "born catchers" who end up playing in local softball leagues. As things stand right now, out of Leon, Vasquez & Swihart, Vasquez is the current favorite to be the only guy who won't be a starting catcher somewhere next season.

 

As far as "intangibles" go, he was demoted last season for "doing things his way," so those intangibles might be in question.

 

By the way. I would love to see Vasquez win the job, not be an automatic out and give them stability behind the plate for a long time, but until he does, I'd hang on to a guy like Swihartt.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone is saying "screw the defense" or "everyone has to hit for a high average." I'm just not as ready as you are to trade Swihart and hand the reigns over to Vasquez, because he was a a "born catcher."

 

He needs to show that he won't be an automatic out, or he'll be a career backup. There are lots of "born catchers" who end up playing in local softball leagues. As things stand right now, out of Leon, Vasquez & Swihart, Vasquez is the current favorite to be the only guy who won't be a starting catcher somewhere next season.

 

As far as "intangibles" go, he was demoted last season for "doing things his way," so those intangibles might be in question.

 

By the way. I would love to see Vasquez win the job, not be an automatic out and give them stability behind the plate for a long time, but until he does, I'd hang on to a guy like Swihartt.

 

Each season, there are usually about 5-10 starting catchers who have an OPS below .700 and about 5 of those below .650.

 

Some might say Vaz hasn't proved he can even hit .620, but I can see Vaz as a starting catcher somewhere in MLB even at .620.

 

I also think Swihart would start for several teams as well, regardless of his defense, because his offense would make-up the difference.

 

Leon is a lot like Vaz, except that he has shown he can hit ML pitching at times.

 

[notin]

Theyre keeping him right now to get his value up and for insurance. My guess is the team values a more defensive catcher that can call games and pitch frame. Sure Swihart can learn to play any position. Hes one hell of an athlete.. My opinion, from seeing these situations is that the guy like swihart is usually a liability behind the plate....but hey, kids got a stick so screw the D right? EVERYONE has to hit for a high average...we have the best, or one of the best offenses in the game right now. If some of you value a better hitter and a worse defender behind the plate, well then I guess we will agree to disagree.

Swihart, although much more athletic, reminds me of Lavarnway behind the dish stabbing at balls and looking somewhat awkward...yes, he will get better, but ill go with the guy whos got the D, been catching since popping out of the womb, and all the intangibles catching for my team...swihart could possibly bring back a nice haul to restock the farm a little...im not saying I dont like or want him...I just prefer a defensive minded catcher.

 

No one is saying "screw defense," but at some point the offensive downgrades can more than negate the defensive upgrades.

 

For example, the best defensive catcher in any season is usually credited with about 12-15 defensive runs saved, per Fangraphs. So if the hitting catcher allows 15 more runs, but on offense can outproduce the defensive catcher by 20 runs created, id he still the worse option?

[S5Dewey]

No one is saying "screw defense," but at some point the offensive downgrades can more than negate the defensive upgrades.

 

For example, the best defensive catcher in any season is usually credited with about 12-15 defensive runs saved, per Fangraphs. So if the hitting catcher allows 15 more runs, but on offense can outproduce the defensive catcher by 20 runs created, id he still the worse option?

 

Good question. But it raises a question I'd been asking for some time.

 

If a good defensive catcher throws out a runner trying to steal 2B he uses up 1/3 of an offensive inning by the opposing team. Does fangraphs take into consideration the fact that the offensive team may have scored more runs had they had that 1/3 of an inning at their disposal?

 

If a poor defensive catcher fails to throw out a runner trying to steal 2B but an average or better catcher would have made the play it extends the offensive team's inning by 1/3. Does fangraphs take into consideration the runs that may have scored by the offensive team using that "extra" 1/3 of an offensive inning?

 

And conversely....

A good hitting catcher will make fewer outs, thereby sometimes extending his offensive team's inning bu 1/3. Is that a part of the 20 runs created in your example?

Edited December 21, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Good question. But it raises a question I'd been asking for some time.

 

If a good defensive catcher throws out a runner trying to steal 2B he uses up 1/3 of an offensive inning by the opposing team. Does fangraphs take into consideration the fact that the offensive team may have scored more runs had they had that 1/3 of an inning at their disposal?

 

If a poor defensive catcher fails to throw out a runner trying to steal 2B but an average or better catcher would have made the play it extends the offensive team's inning by 1/3. Does fangraphs take into consideration the runs that may have scored by the offensive team using that "extra" 1/3 of an offensive inning?

 

And conversely....

A good hitting catcher will make fewer outs, thereby sometimes extending his offensive team's inning bu 1/3. Is that a part of the 20 runs created in your example?

 

Throwing out runners (or not), as I'm sure you know, is just a small fraction of run prevention a catcher can influence in a positive or negative way.

 

I'm not sure the claim that great all around defensive catchers only save 12-15 more runs over the league average.

 

I'm not sure Vaz or Leon save that much over the average, but if they save 15 and Swihart loses 15 from the average, the gap could be 30 (or more).

 

Swihart has a good arm and pop time, so I doubt he loses much there, but in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking and handling the staff with pitch calling and affecting a pitcher's emotional and mental state of mind. These areas are very hard to quantify, but that doesn't mean they aren't real and highly influential.

 

[mvp 78]

I'm going to give CV a longer rope due to his injury, but his defense was mediocre last year. There was no noticeable drop off when Leon played. Not sure his glove is worth the noodle bat.