Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Moncada, this from MLBTR...

 

Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada suffered a thumb injury while batting in the Arizona Fall League recently, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Moncada didn’t suffer any fractures but has been out for a few days already and could undergo further testing today. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tells Drellich that while it’s the same hand that Moncada has injured in the past, the issue isn’t believed to be serious at this time. Maintaining his health will be a key for Moncada as he looks to force his way back onto Boston’s roster in 2017. The 21-year-old struggled tremendously in his brief September call-up, collecting four hits and striking out 12 times in 20 plate appearances.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not an "expert" on the DH, but I know enough about it to know that not everyone has the mindset to be able to do it. Not sure where you went with the rest of this post, but I'm pretty certain that the Sox will know who will handle the bulk of the DHing by the end of spring training 2017, and it certainly won't be Swihart or Moncada, regardless of the fact that either of them could possibly be the "best option."

 

I'm not sure what the argument is. I have agreed that at the end of ST'ing, Moncada and Swihart will be in AAA.

 

It's about what happens if or when Pablo flops.

 

I think they'll bring in a DH, whether it's Beltran, EE, Bautista or someone else. Just a guess, but I think Sandoval either wins the 3rd base job or he won't be here. I'd also guess that Shaw is moved in a trade this off season. I also have a feeling that they will pull off some type of blockbuster trade this off season that will generate some excitement to help offset the loss of Papi.

 

I don't think they'll be in on Chapman, Jansen or Melancon, but I think that they'll make at least one significant move to improve the bullpen. I have a feeling that Koji will be back and it's not that far fetched that Tazawa comes back, either. My guess would be about a 40% chance Tazawa comes back. I think it's a given that Ziegler will sign with someone who has spring training near his home in AZ.

 

I think that the White Sox will hold onto their core and try to compete, but I think the Royals could be a matchup for the Sox. I also have a feeling that this off season will be more interesting than most people think.

[moonslav59]

Just a guess, but I think Sandoval either wins the 3rd base job or he won't be here.

 

If ever there was a player "cut out" to be a DH, it would be someone like Pablo (at least vs RHPs).

 

I do think he'll get a long look at 3B, and my hopes are not high on Shaw.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Just a guess, but I think Sandoval either wins the 3rd base job or he won't be here.

 

If ever there was a player "cut out" to be a DH, it would be someone like Pablo (at least vs RHPs).

 

I do think he'll get a long look at 3B, and my hopes are not high on Shaw.

 

I'm not sure Pablo has the mindset or the offensive talent to be the regular DH, especially after missing a full season. I think they'll aim higher. I have a feeling that if he isn't in good enough shape to take the 3rd base job, then he'll be gone. Just a hunch. You could be right.

[S5Dewey]

Just a guess, but I think Sandoval either wins the 3rd base job or he won't be here.

 

If ever there was a player "cut out" to be a DH, it would be someone like Pablo (at least vs RHPs).

 

I do think he'll get a long look at 3B, and my hopes are not high on Shaw.

 

Umm...yeah...about 3B now...

 

While I agree that even with the eye test 3B is the Sox weakest position, but some position has to be. And as Moon has pointed out, much of that wasn't due to Shaw's contribution. It was those other clowns who played there that dragged the position down. I see Shaw as probably not being a great solution but he is a decent solution - assuming of course that the real Travis Shaw wasn't the one who stood up during the last month of the season, requiring Holt to be our 3Bman during the playoffs. If that's who he is then we DO have a problem.

 

BUT.. if Shaw can play his defense at 3B and put up an OPS of ~.750 I can live with that if it means improving our BP.

[moonslav59]

Umm...yeah...about 3B now...

 

While I agree that even with the eye test 3B is the Sox weakest position, but some position has to be. And as Moon has pointed out, much of that wasn't due to Shaw's contribution. It was those other clowns who played there that dragged the position down. I see Shaw as probably not being a great solution but he is a decent solution - assuming of course that the real Travis Shaw wasn't the one who stood up during the last month of the season, requiring Holt to be our 3Bman during the playoffs. If that's who he is then we DO have a problem.

 

BUT.. if Shaw can play his defense at 3B and put up an OPS of ~.750 I can live with that if it means improving our BP.

 

I see the odds being pretty high that Shaw ends up below .725, let alone .750.

 

My guess is that he ends up below .700.

 

It's not out of any hatred towards him. He was my "sleeper prospect of the year" way back when.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I see the odds being pretty high that Shaw ends up below .725, let alone .750.

 

My guess is that he ends up below .700.

 

It's not out of any hatred towards him. He was my "sleeper prospect of the year" way back when.

 

I have nothing against Shaw, either, and he certainly has value. He's not going to hurt you at either corner position defensively, he's shown flashes of ability to hit MLB pitching and he's supposedly the anti-Middlebrooks when it comes to working on his game. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's back, but I just think that he's a guy who could thrive in a place like "Oakland." Shaw alone may not bring back a solid reliever, but he might good enough to be the centerpiece along with a minor league "arm."

Edited October 27, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[moonslav59]

I have nothing against Shaw, either, and he certainly has value. He's not going to hurt you at either corner position defensively, he's shown flashes of ability to hit MLB pitching and he's supposedly the anti-Middlebrooks when it comes to working on his game. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's back, but I just think that he's a guy who could thrive in a place like "Oakland." Shaw alone may not bring back a solid reliever, but he might good enough to be the centerpiece along with a minor league "arm."

 

While I'm not high on Shaw, I'm not high on Pablo either. I'm not sure we trade any of these guys until we know who the man will be.

[Eddy Ballgame]

While I'm not high on Shaw, I'm not high on Pablo either. I'm not sure we trade any of these guys until we know who the man will be.

 

That's very possible. Shaw, Pablo & Ramirez could handle 1st & 3rd with the occasional turn at DH. Just have a hunch that one of Sandoval/Shaw won't be here opening day

[moonslav59]

That's very possible. Shaw, Pablo & Ramirez could handle 1st & 3rd with the occasional turn at DH. Just have a hunch that one of Sandoval/Shaw won't be here opening day

 

I see two ways it might happen:

 

1) We pick up a 3Bman making both expendable

2) Pablo looks good and we are happy with Moncada's progress this winter (Shaw traded).

 

We're too weak at 3B to trade away one of our options, before we know what's up.

[mvp 78]

I don't see how they'd be able to dump Pablo at this point unless they are picking up 90% of the contract.

 

At his best, Pablo is the best option at 3b. We just don't know if he'll every get there again.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I don't see how they'd be able to dump Pablo at this point unless they are picking up 90% of the contract.

 

At his best, Pablo is the best option at 3b. We just don't know if he'll every get there again.

 

They'd definitely have to pay most of the freight, unless they take on another bad contract in return. They can't send him to Pawtucket & they won't waste a roster spot on him if he looks awful, either.

[Dojji]

I just don't see how so many people can blindly assume Pablo Sandoval is still a big league third baseman. The last time he played the position he immediately hurt himself, following a year in which he played the position very poorly, and he's only gotten older since then.

 

I understand that the last month of the season left a very bad taste in peoples' mouths vis-a-vis Shaw, but I really do think we need to not engage in binary thinking here. Sandoval will get his chance this Spring but until we have a better snapshot at where he is this march, weightwise as well as in terms of physical conditioning (the two are different things, which is how Sandoval was ever able to carry that much gut in the first place while playing a position normally reserved for a team's actual athletes), pencilling him in for a big league job right out the gate is extremely stupid.

 

Sandoval should be treated like a reclamation project -- as if we just signed him for league minimum on a flier to see if he can do the job. Forget the money, sunk cost is sunk, that's the level he's put himself at. I think it's extremely likely that Sandoval will be sent to Pawtucket for an extended "rehab" assignment (to continue to rehabilitate his gut) and we'll be breaking camp with Shaw this Spring. This is based on the fact that the last time we saw Pablo, he was clearly substantially overweight, perhaps by as much as 100 pounds, and it might take a very significant period of time to work him back into shape.

 

Now he could prove me wrong, but I think the team is going to move very slowly with Sandoval, especially on the defensive side of the ball, to make sure he's fully up to the task before throwing him to the wolves, and that we're going to go with a guy who got it done at a very effective level defensively and showed some good flashes at the plate and returned 2 WAR last year, over the guy who showed up to camp literally bloated last year and put up about -1 WAR between last year and the injury-aborted no-show this year where he showed up on the team rosters just long enough to have a ridiculous and embarrassing weight-related incident before hurting himself and hitting the showers for the balance of 2016.

 

As not-fun as September was for Shaw fans, April was a cataclysm for Pablo fans, and I think that needs to be remembered and to shape expectations for 2017, because I am nowhere near convinced we won't have further weight-related hijinks and shenanigans from the Sandoval camp going forward. I count on nothing from Sandoval until he proves he can be counted on. At least Shaw is a decent defender.

Edited October 27, 2016 by Dojji

[Slasher9]

Pablo has lost a ton of weight. as long as he doesnt go to his mom's house for Christmas i truly believe he will have a solid season at 3b next year.

if he spends a week or two eating mama's cooking...all bets are off.

[Dojji]

It would take all the salt in the North Atlantic to get me to swallow the narrative from the Pablo camp right now, remembering how such pronouncements ended last year. Do we have independent confirmation of this alleged loss of weight? Because being in a position of having been lied to once, I really don't feel like voluntarily letting myself be easily lied to a second time.

[harmony]

From today's MLB Trade Rumors chat:

 

Dean

2:13

Cheers from Ireland! Thanks or the chats Jeff. Any chance Eduardo Rodriguez could get dangled in the off-season?

 

Jeffrey Todd

2:14

 

Cheers! Love Ireland.

 

Sure I can see that -- he'd be the type of guy they could dangle to get a more established pitcher with less control, say.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1683

[Spudboy]

It would take all the salt in the North Atlantic to get me to swallow the narrative from the Pablo camp right now, remembering how such pronouncements ended last year. Do we have independent confirmation of this alleged loss of weight? Because being in a position of having been lied to once, I really don't feel like voluntarily letting myself be easily lied to a second time.

 

And while on this subject I will inject that to the naked eye he may have looked as though he had lost weight while working out with the varsity this fall. Looks can be deceiving.

 

Morbidly obese people can lose a lot of weight without looking significantly different. At the same time, they can lose a lot of weight and remain morbidly obese and way out of shape.

 

He still looked like Fatboy to me this fall.

 

He needs to show up in ST early with his weight hovering around 220 lbs ACTUAL ( not just reported in the media ) to be in close to game shape.

 

Of course there are those among us who will tell you that he played 3 WAR ball in SF at a higher weight. That is just dumb. He needs to get into acceptable shape to play 2016 in Boston or he needs to take a permanent hike.

[Bellhorn04]

It would take all the salt in the North Atlantic to get me to swallow the narrative from the Pablo camp right now, remembering how such pronouncements ended last year. Do we have independent confirmation of this alleged loss of weight? Because being in a position of having been lied to once, I really don't feel like voluntarily letting myself be easily lied to a second time.

 

Yeah, let's not even start with that. We can all check him out in April.

[Kimmi]

I just don't see how so many people can blindly assume Pablo Sandoval is still a big league third baseman. The last time he played the position he immediately hurt himself, following a year in which he played the position very poorly, and he's only gotten older since then.

 

I don't think anyone is blindly assuming that Pablo will be a decent third baseman, and I don't think anyone has him penciled in for next year. I've been his biggest supporter, and even I would not count on him for anything.

 

I think you're being a little unfair about the injury though. He got injured. It might not have had anything to do with his weight.

 

IMO, he gets a chance to win his job back in spring training. Personally, I think he will bounce back. Will he be better than Shaw? I don't know. But as much as he should not be counted on to do the job, he should also not be counted out.

[Kimmi]

And while on this subject I will inject that to the naked eye he may have looked as though he had lost weight while working out with the varsity this fall. Looks can be deceiving.

 

Morbidly obese people can lose a lot of weight without looking significantly different. At the same time, they can lose a lot of weight and remain morbidly obese and way out of shape.

 

He still looked like Fatboy to me this fall.

 

He needs to show up in ST early with his weight hovering around 220 lbs ACTUAL ( not just reported in the media ) to be in close to game shape.

 

Of course there are those among us who will tell you that he played 3 WAR ball in SF at a higher weight. That is just dumb. He needs to get into acceptable shape to play 2016 in Boston or he needs to take a permanent hike.

 

Not sure what's so dumb about it.

[moonslav59]

I'm not counting on Pablo for Jack, but I'm not writing him off either.

 

Yes, he's overweight and has been for his whole career.

 

Yes, he got hurt shortly after starting the season after not looking very good on defense all ST'ing.

 

Yes, he's a year older.

 

But, I will say this, you know the guy has heard everything said and has read much of what has been said about him. If the guy has a shred of pride, he's dedicated himself to proving us all wrong. That doesn't mean he'll be successful, but he's actually still young enough to turn things around, if he really wants it.

 

None of us know what's in his head. Even if he loses 100 pounds, he still might not be in the right frame of mind. He might still suck. He might get hurt again. The again, he might get over .780 and be an average fielder. He might become a successful DH, at least vs RHPs.

 

The only reason I keep mentioning Pablo is because I have little faith in Shaw. I'm not writing him off either, but the guy had a .715 OPS in AAA and hit .242 in AA, so let's temper our enthusiasm for him rebounding too.

[Spudboy]

Not sure what's so dumb about it.

 

He is 3 years older than his 3 WAR days. He is a lot fatter. He has a damaged shoulder. His name is mud in this town.

 

Showing up fat will perpetuate his problems when most of it could be avoided if he was much slimmer and in good game shape.

 

As I said. Dumb.

[Dojji]

I'm not counting on Pablo for Jack, but I'm not writing him off either.

 

Why not? It's an appropriate response for the level of "production" Pablo has provided over the last 24 months. When you're not even sure the guy can physically handle the rigors of his position anymore... you really need to be taking his recovery 1 step at a time and not even assuming he can start at 3B on Opening Day even a little bit. When a guy has essentially been utterly ineffective for 2 years, you need to take him for what he is, and NOT for what he used to be.

 

Like I said, if I'm the Sox, I start him part time at third base in the Spring, then full time in AAA for at least 4 weeks, and see how he handles the extended grind, before he plays one inning in Boston. Use the interval to test your other options like Shaw and Hernandez. Once Panda proves he can handle a month of regular 3B without either sucking or getting hurt, then you move him up to the big leagues and find out what he can give you -- not before.

 

When you're that heavy, being able to play third base for a game or two isn't enough information, the real problem when it comes to weight isn't so much game to game performance as increased wear-and-tear, you want to see how well he can weather the full grind, and that takes time to know. Like I said, I'm 100% convinced that we break camp with Travis Shaw as the nominal starter with Holt and Hernandez backing him up and Panda on extended rehab, even if The Plan is to eventually transition back to Panda.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

He is 3 years older than his 3 WAR days. He is a lot fatter. He has a damaged shoulder. His name is mud in this town.

 

Showing up fat will perpetuate his problems when most of it could be avoided if he was much slimmer and in good game shape.

 

As I said. Dumb.

 

He was pretty fat in SF.

 

SF was seriously bummed out he didn't come back with them.

 

That wasn't that long ago. Nobody knows, if he's fatter right now or will be by ST'ing than his "3 WAR days".

[Dojji]

It is not the nature of most fat people to get thinner as they age. IF they're going to accomplish that, it's going to take more and more hard work and sterner discipline every single year.

[moonslav59]

It is not the nature of most fat people to get thinner as they age. IF they're going to accomplish that, it's going to take more and more hard work and sterner discipline every single year.

 

I totally agree, and I don't want to sound like I'm a Pablo apologist.

 

I hated the signing the second it happened. The guy was declining long before the signing. Then, to fall off a cliff after already going through a long decline is not encouraging.

 

I've said over and over that I'm not counting on one inning from Pablo at 3B in 2017.

 

I'm also not writing him off or projecting him as having a significant chance at winning the FT 3B job on opening day or even by May. To me, his best chance at playing a lot is if we don't add a DH, and he platoons with Young as our DH. His chances at 3B are much less than as a DH, but it's not at zero.

 

If Shaw sucks in ST'ing, then Pablo has a shot at playing his way into the job. He might not take as long as you have mapped out, but certainly it might take that long or longer if ever.

 

He just turned 30. He's not the only fat player to play beyond 30. I'm not even sure how fat he actually is right now. I'd like to know his weight now vs last year at this time, and during his 3 WAR days with SF. Not that weight tells thew hole story, but it would clue us in a little more on how dedicated he has been since getting hurt this year.

[SoxHop]

I do hope Pablo shows up looking good and has his mojo back and is average at least next year.

 

But I almost hope he shows up looking like he didn't put in the work and can't play. This board will be pure comedy for weeks on end.

[SoxHop]

I'm thinking we may suffer without a big bopper like Papi in the lineup more than we know. And I'd hate to spend big on that bat. Bring back my boy Napoli!!!!?

[cp176]

I totally agree, and I don't want to sound like I'm a Pablo apologist.

 

I hated the signing the second it happened. The guy was declining long before the signing. Then, to fall off a cliff after already going through a long decline is not encouraging.

 

I've said over and over that I'm not counting on one inning from Pablo at 3B in 2017.

 

I'm also not writing him off or projecting him as having a significant chance at winning the FT 3B job on opening day or even by May. To me, his best chance at playing a lot is if we don't add a DH, and he platoons with Young as our DH. His chances at 3B are much less than as a DH, but it's not at zero.

 

If Shaw sucks in ST'ing, then Pablo has a shot at playing his way into the job. He might not take as long as you have mapped out, but certainly it might take that long or longer if ever.

 

He just turned 30. He's not the only fat player to play beyond 30. I'm not even sure how fat he actually is right now. I'd like to know his weight now vs last year at this time, and during his 3 WAR days with SF. Not that weight tells thew hole story, but it would clue us in a little more on how dedicated he has been since getting hurt this year.

 

I would be pleasantly surprised if Sandoval came into the spring in anything that resembles good physical shape for someone as young as he is. He is young. 30 ain't old for anyone unless you are obsessed with age. He has a good 5 year window where he could possibly thrive uninjured and in a healthy body. Do I expect that? No - but to just assume that he won't be able to get fit because he is 30 is laughable. Fat people get thinner. Motivated people get fit. he has the time to get healthy. Whether he will or not??? It's up to him.

[Slasher9]

It would take all the salt in the North Atlantic to get me to swallow the narrative from the Pablo camp right now, remembering how such pronouncements ended last year. Do we have independent confirmation of this alleged loss of weight? Because being in a position of having been lied to once, I really don't feel like voluntarily letting myself be easily lied to a second time.

 

check out his instagram account. he looks good right now. well, for him anyway....