Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[oldtimer]

I almost have more faith in Hernandez, Holt and Moncada. I won't go so far as to say Pablo.

 

Shaw reminds me too much of Middy. Big flash, then back to reality.

 

Shaw had 668 PAs at AAA and a .715 OPS. His .795 OPS at AA in 870 PAs is also unimpressive.

 

I think even expecting him to play at his career .754 MLB OPS is asking for too much.

 

I'm not writing him off, but I'm not betting on him winning the job either.

 

I agree that signing another 3B scrub makes little sense. Assuming no 3B pick-ups, here's how I would put the odds on who is the opening day 3Bman (barring injury) and who plays the most innings at 3B next year:

 

Opening Day:

33% Holt

25% Shaw

17% Moncada

10% Pablo

10% Hernandez

5% Swihart

 

Most 3B Innings by season end:

33% Moncada

20% Holt

20% Shaw

10% Swihart

10% Hernandez

7% Pablo

 

 

 

 

There is a very real chance that either Holt, Shaw, Swihart or Hernandez could be lost in trade deals for more pitching or even to get a DH. I wouldn't trade Moncada as I believe he will become a regular position player sometime in 2017 (probably to fill our need at 3rd). We probably can't trade Pablo, so may use him at DH or 1st, to fill a need. I wouldn't expect Swihart to play 3rd at all during the season but we may try to keep him based on his versatility (catcher, outfield, possibly 1st).

 

My own guess at PT at 3rd:

 

Opening day: Holt 50%

Shaw 40%

Moncada 10%

 

Most 3rd base innings by years end" Moncada 60%

Holt 30 %

Shaw 10%

 

All that could easily change if we trade away players like Holt or Shaw

[moonslav59]

There is a very real chance that either Holt, Shaw, Swihart or Hernandez could be lost in trade deals for more pitching or even to get a DH. I wouldn't trade Moncada as I believe he will become a regular position player sometime in 2017 (probably to fill our need at 3rd). We probably can't trade Pablo, so may use him at DH or 1st, to fill a need. I wouldn't expect Swihart to play 3rd at all during the season but we may try to keep him based on his versatility (catcher, outfield, possibly 1st).

 

My own guess at PT at 3rd:

 

Opening day: Holt 50%

Shaw 40%

Moncada 10%

 

Most 3rd base innings by years end" Moncada 60%

Holt 30 %

Shaw 10%

 

All that could easily change if we trade away players like Holt or Shaw

 

Nothing to argue with here. I do think we may trade a 3Bman, since we have so many of similar promise and concern. I think a lot depends on Pablo, but my expectations are that the best we can hope for is for him to be our DH vs RHPs and maybe 3rd string 3Bman and 2nd or 3rd string 1Bman, depending on Shaw's roster status.

[S5Dewey]

Does it bother anyone but me that we're putting an awful lot of faith in Moncada and his ability to be our 3B? This guy hasn't has a ML AB yet and we've anointed him as our savior at 3B with our Plan B being Sandoval, Holt, or Shaw.

 

I have NO faith in Sandoval - anything we get from him will be a pleasant surprise to me. Shaw could be "The Man" but in order for that to happen he's going to have to be the Travis Shaw we saw in spurts earlier in the year. And Holt... I see Holt as being serviceable enough but without enough power to fill a corner spot. That makes Holt as my favorite at Plan B, but barely. IMO we need to get more power at 3B to be a contender.

 

I can see the Sox making Shaw part of a pitching trade, keeping Holt as super-utility guy, and picking up a real 3B. Then giving The Fat Man a month or so to prove himself again assuming he shows up at ST at less than 300 lbs. /s/

If TFM shows that he can play 3B we then trade away our real 3B and if he doesn't show that he can play we have to accept that he's a sunk cost and get what we can get for him. It's a lousy option but a better one than having him occupy a spot on the 25 man roster, blocking someone who can actually play the game.

 

That leaves Moncada in competition with our 'real 3B' for that spot, which may be a very good thing.

[moonslav59]

Does it bother anyone but me that we're putting an awful lot of faith in Moncada and his ability to be our 3B? This guy hasn't has a ML AB yet and we've anointed him as our savior at 3B with our Plan B being Sandoval, Holt, or Shaw.

 

I have NO faith in Sandoval - anything we get from him will be a pleasant surprise to me. Shaw could be "The Man" but in order for that to happen he's going to have to be the Travis Shaw we saw in spurts earlier in the year. And Holt... I see Holt as being serviceable enough but without enough power to fill a corner spot. That makes Holt as my favorite at Plan B, but barely. IMO we need to get more power at 3B to be a contender.

 

I can see the Sox making Shaw part of a pitching trade, keeping Holt as super-utility guy, and picking up a real 3B. Then giving The Fat Man a month or so to prove himself again assuming he shows up at ST at less than 300 lbs. /s/

If TFM shows that he can play 3B we then trade away our real 3B and if he doesn't show that he can play we have to accept that he's a sunk cost and get what we can get for him. It's a lousy option but a better one than having him occupy a spot on the 25 man roster, blocking someone who can actually play the game.

 

That leaves Moncada in competition with our 'real 3B' for that spot, which may be a very good thing.

 

Moncada has such upside on offense, and he's such a great athlete that I think many feel that's going to be enough for him to win the 3B job over the 2017 season. I'm not convinced either, but our 3B position had the worst WAR in MLB last season, so an improvement may not take much. I hesitate to put much faith in the guy who played 3B more than anyone this year, Shaw. I think he may be traded.

[S5Dewey]

Moncada has such upside on offense, and he's such a great athlete that I think many feel that's going to be enough for him to win the 3B job over the 2017 season. I'm not convinced either, but our 3B position had the worst WAR in MLB last season, so an improvement may not take much. I hesitate to put much faith in the guy who played 3B more than anyone this year, Shaw. I think he may be traded.

 

Shaw is an odd case. He seems to be the personification of 'clutch' but can't produce in a regular game situation.

[moonslav59]

Shaw is an odd case. He seems to be the personification of 'clutch' but can't produce in a regular game situation.

 

The "clutch" sample size is too small. Besides, he had a .749 OPS in Late & Close situations this year- about in the middle of Sox players.

[Nick]

Only the Sox fans have no faith in #1 major league prospect.

 

No one thinks he'll win the job in the spring training. He maybe a midyear call up. I'm okay with that because that means we will have him under team control for next 7 years. If you give me another $60M bust, I'd fire everyone that was responsible his signing.

[moonslav59]

Only the Sox fans have no faith in #1 major league prospect.

 

No one thinks he'll win the job in the spring training. He maybe a midyear call up. I'm okay with that because that means we will have him under team control for next 7 years. If you give me another $60M bust, I'd fire everyone that was responsible his signing.

 

I got blasted for suggesting we play him at DH, until we found a position he can play well enough to not be a significant negative.

 

I still think LF may be the best spot for him, but we have a solid OF locked up for 3+ years.

 

I don't want to trade JBJ, the guy every GM seems to ask for, but the idea of moving Beni to CF and having a decent fielding Moncada in LF some day is inviting.

[Slasher9]

The "clutch" sample size is too small. Besides, he had a .749 OPS in Late & Close situations this year- about in the middle of Sox players.

 

plus he was the last out in our attempted comeback game 3 with winning run on base. not so clutch.

[Nick]

I got blasted for suggesting we play him at DH, until we found a position he can play well enough to not be a significant negative.

 

I still think LF may be the best spot for him, but we have a solid OF locked up for 3+ years.

 

I don't want to trade JBJ, the guy every GM seems to ask for, but the idea of moving Beni to CF and having a decent fielding Moncada in LF some day is inviting.

 

Sox should be open to all options....the goal is to put 9 best players on the field, no? It maybe that we have 9 position players for 8 spots. DH could be handled by a committee at that point. Do I think that will happen? Probably not because DD in my opinion will take long hard look at EE.

 

What we think really doesn't matter. We have fun with it. I try to listen carefully to what the management says and that's my starting point.

 

I get the sense that Sox FO is pretty content with the starting rotation going into winter trades. Picking up the club option for Clay B appears certain based on what I've read so far. I just don't want to give up E Rod at this point in any trade proposals.

 

FO does seem to be talking up Pablo's health. Are they talking themselves into thinking he can start at 3B? I just don't see it.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Nick

[oldtimer]

Sox should be open to all options....the goal is to put 9 best players on the field, no? It maybe that we have 9 position players for 8 spots. DH could be handled by a committee at that point. Do I think that will happen? Probably not because DD in my opinion will take long hard look at EE.

 

What we think really doesn't matter. We have fun with it. I try to listen carefully to what the management says and that's my starting point.

 

I get the sense that Sox FO is pretty content with the starting rotation going into winter trades. Picking up the club option for Clay B appears certain based on what I've read so far. I just don't want to give up E Rod at this point in any trade proposals.

 

FO does seem to be talking up Pablo's health. Are they talking themselves into thinking he can start at 3B? I just don't see it.

 

If we are fortunate enough to return to the playoffs, we need to think of who are starters could be. Porcello had a bad start but has the talent for the playoffs. I see E-Rod as a second likely starter in the playoffs but Price hasn't shown that ability nor really has Buchholz. Probably not Pomeranz and starting a knuckle baller in the playoffs would be unique. What speaks

to me is that we need to get that ace starter and we know the price would be high in prospects and maybe even 25 man roster personnel. In the end, if we can't improve our starting pitching we probably can't advance in the playoffs.

[Dojji]

I disagree with such an absolute statement. Our starting pitching played way below its talent level in the playoffs. To assess them as if the 1 start each they made against Cleveland are the only numbers that matter is ridiculous.

[sk7326]

Does it bother anyone but me that we're putting an awful lot of faith in Moncada and his ability to be our 3B? This guy hasn't has a ML AB yet and we've anointed him as our savior at 3B with our Plan B being Sandoval, Holt, or Shaw.

 

I have NO faith in Sandoval - anything we get from him will be a pleasant surprise to me. Shaw could be "The Man" but in order for that to happen he's going to have to be the Travis Shaw we saw in spurts earlier in the year. And Holt... I see Holt as being serviceable enough but without enough power to fill a corner spot. That makes Holt as my favorite at Plan B, but barely. IMO we need to get more power at 3B to be a contender.

 

I can see the Sox making Shaw part of a pitching trade, keeping Holt as super-utility guy, and picking up a real 3B. Then giving The Fat Man a month or so to prove himself again assuming he shows up at ST at less than 300 lbs. /s/

If TFM shows that he can play 3B we then trade away our real 3B and if he doesn't show that he can play we have to accept that he's a sunk cost and get what we can get for him. It's a lousy option but a better one than having him occupy a spot on the 25 man roster, blocking someone who can actually play the game.

 

That leaves Moncada in competition with our 'real 3B' for that spot, which may be a very good thing.

 

We're not really - Shaw and Sandoval will be perfectly acceptable - it would be nice to be better, but if that is your 7th or 8th best player, then the position lineup is pretty darn good. Moncada is the upside option - granted he has to be able to actually hit the baseball (and it is pretty good when that happens).

[moonslav59]

Our team 3B WAR was the worst in MLB this year.

 

Anyone who counts on Pablo to be the savior is a dreamer.

 

Moncada may fill the role at some point, but I doubt he'll be "ready" for 3B by opening day.

[S5Dewey]

We're not really - Shaw and Sandoval will be perfectly acceptable - it would be nice to be better, but if that is your 7th or 8th best player, then the position lineup is pretty darn good. Moncada is the upside option - granted he has to be able to actually hit the baseball (and it is pretty good when that happens).

 

I understand that someone has to have the distinction of being the worst player on the team but our 3B is the worst in all of baseball!. And I'm speaking of the eight position players when I say that.

 

When I project what we have going into next year I see six positions filled (3 OF, SS, 2B, 1B). That leaves catching and 3B to make an improvement. We've got Leon and two 'kids' in the pipeline and IMO two of those three are going to fill the catching spots. That means if we're going to make improvements in fielders (and I mean offensively and defensively) it's going to be at 3B.

 

I like what I'm hearing about Moncada but I think we're being awfully optimistic if we think that someone with '0' ML AB's is going to suddenly make a huge improvement in our team at that position. We need to pump the brakes just a bit on him, let him develop, and see if he's as good as advertised. If he is that's all well and good, but even if he is we don't know when he's going to be that good.

 

I think we may have gotten spoiled with Benintenti's coming from AA to the majors without a glitch. Players who do that are unusual. I don't object to finding out if Moncada is another of those players but if we're going to try that I believe our Plan B should be something other than continuing with the worst 3B position in baseball.

[moonslav59]

I understand that someone has to have the distinction of being the worst player on the team but our 3B is the worst in all of baseball!. And I'm speaking of the eight position players when I say that.

 

When I project what we have going into next year I see six positions filled (3 OF, SS, 2B, 1B). That leaves catching and 3B to make an improvement. We've got Leon and two 'kids' in the pipeline and IMO two of those three are going to fill the catching spots. That means if we're going to make improvements in fielders (and I mean offensively and defensively) it's going to be at 3B.

 

I like what I'm hearing about Moncada but I think we're being awfully optimistic if we think that someone with '0' ML AB's is going to suddenly make a huge improvement in our team at that position. We need to pump the brakes just a bit on him, let him develop, and see if he's as good as advertised. If he is that's all well and good, but even if he is we don't know when he's going to be that good.

 

I think we may have gotten spoiled with Benintenti's coming from AA to the majors without a glitch. Players who do that are unusual. I don't object to finding out if Moncada is another of those players but if we're going to try that I believe our Plan B should be something other than continuing with the worst 3B position in baseball.

 

I think the optimism is well founded. When's the last time we've had a number 1 prospect?

 

The issues to me, is timing and where his best position is. That could take months and months to determine.

 

I feel pretty certain Moncada will become an offensive threat. He may be at that point in his development right now or very soon. I don't think we should look at a few handful of September ABs to think he's a long way away from making an impact with his bat. He's got a great swing and all the "tools" a player could need. Is there a chance we get let down? Of course, but the chances are much better he becomes something special.

 

It's hard to play the waiting game, when you're trying to win a championship every year. I have mentioned trying to find a one year fix at 3B, but I'm not sure that's practical or possible.

 

The one good thing we have going for us is this: our two most high need areas beyond the staff are 3B and Catcher, Maybe 1B/DH is next, but our very best prospects and recent prospect grads play (or can play or may someday play) those 2-3 positions.

 

3B: Moncada, Devers (maybe Swihart and further away Dalbec)

C: Vazaquez & Swihart

1B: maybe Devers or Swihart plus Sam Travis (plus further away Ockimey/Longhi)

[oldtimer]

I disagree with such an absolute statement. Our starting pitching played way below its talent level in the playoffs. To assess them as if the 1 start each they made against Cleveland are the only numbers that matter is ridiculous.

 

Remember that Price has a long history of starting playoff games and has performed poorly in all his opportunities. I judged Porcello as to just have had an off day and worthy of starting a playoff again. If you can support what Buchholz will do for us as a playoff starter, then I question your judgment. E-Rod holds promise. You, seem to read a lot into my words that I didn't express.

[moonslav59]

Remember that Price has a long history of starting playoff games and has performed poorly in all his opportunities. I judged Porcello as to just have had an off day and worthy of starting a playoff again. If you can support what Buchholz will do for us as a playoff starter, then I question your judgment. E-Rod holds promise. You, seem to read a lot into my words that I didn't express.

 

Well, Price did have a good start in the playoffs as a RP'er in 2008:

 

5.2 IP

2 H

4 BB

8 K

1 ER

 

He hasn't stunk in every single playoff start either.

 

Deciding game 5 in 2010 vs Texas (not great/not bad):

6 IP

8 H

0 BB

6 K

3 ER

 

Elimination game 2014 vs BAL:

 

8 IP

5 H

2 BB

6 K

2 ER

 

2015 Playoffs vs KCR

 

Game 2: He went 6 IP with 0 ERs, before getting shelled in the 7th.

 

Game 6 elimination game (not great/not bad):

 

6.2 IP

5 H

1 BB

8 K

3 ER

 

Obviously, Price has fallen way short in the playoffs. He's never had even one shut down performance out of 9 games started. He's done okay to good in 3 of them.

 

[Nick]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/building-red-sox-bullpen-on-the-cheap-for-2017/

 

Here's a thought on how Sox can come up with a serviceable pen in 2017.

[Slasher9]

Obviously, Price has fallen way short in the playoffs. He's never had even one shut down performance out of 9 games started. He's done okay to good in 3 of them.

 

 

completely unacceptable from an "Ace". 1 of the many reasons i preferred going after Cueto over Price this past offseason.

[moonslav59]

completely unacceptable from an "Ace". 1 of the many reasons i preferred going after Cueto over Price this past offseason.

 

I liked Cueto better, because the money saved could have gotten us Miller too.

[Slasher9]

I liked Cueto better, because the money saved could have gotten us Miller too.

 

that was another of the reasons on my list.

[Slasher9]

HEY DAVID PRICE....this is what an "ace" looks like in the postseason:

7 ip / 1 er

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN201610200.shtml

[moonslav59]

that was another of the reasons on my list.

 

As was yours on mine.

 

I haven't given up on DP yet. There are plenty of examples of players who struggled in the postseason initially, but then improved.

[Bellhorn04]

As was yours on mine.

 

I haven't given up on DP yet. There are plenty of examples of players who struggled in the postseason initially, but then improved.

 

That is true, but his 'initially' is getting a little long in the tooth. And there are no guarantees how many more chances he'll get.

[saxina167]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/09/boston_red_sox_playoff_rotatio.html

I think this link will give some idea.

[cp176]

I understand that someone has to have the distinction of being the worst player on the team but our 3B is the worst in all of baseball!. And I'm speaking of the eight position players when I say that.

 

When I project what we have going into next year I see six positions filled (3 OF, SS, 2B, 1B). That leaves catching and 3B to make an improvement. We've got Leon and two 'kids' in the pipeline and IMO two of those three are going to fill the catching spots. That means if we're going to make improvements in fielders (and I mean offensively and defensively) it's going to be at 3B.

 

I like what I'm hearing about Moncada but I think we're being awfully optimistic if we think that someone with '0' ML AB's is going to suddenly make a huge improvement in our team at that position. We need to pump the brakes just a bit on him, let him develop, and see if he's as good as advertised. If he is that's all well and good, but even if he is we don't know when he's going to be that good.

 

I think we may have gotten spoiled with Benintenti's coming from AA to the majors without a glitch. Players who do that are unusual. I don't object to finding out if Moncada is another of those players but if we're going to try that I believe our Plan B should be something other than continuing with the worst 3B position in baseball.

 

By looking at and dissecting all possible statistics, if Shaw looks like the worst third baseman in the game, that tells me that all of the others aren't bad. It's not as though this young man gave us 0. If he returns as our third baseman it does not foretell impending doom for our team.

[Dojji]

Shaw returned 2 WAR. That is a solid-average performance out of 3B. If that's the "worst in the league" we're in a golden age of 3B.

[SoxnCycles]

Remember that Price has a long history of starting playoff games and has performed poorly in all his opportunities. I judged Porcello as to just have had an off day and worthy of starting a playoff again. If you can support what Buchholz will do for us as a playoff starter, then I question your judgment. E-Rod holds promise. You, seem to read a lot into my words that I didn't express.

 

Agreed.

Buchholz was the best ALDS starter out of the three this year, but that's not saying much.

I was surprised at Porcello after he was consistently good all year.

I wasn't a bit surrpised that Price spit the bit. It's what he does, when there's a some pressure involved.

If Buch's option is picked up, he'd be my fill in option next fall, if they make the playoffs again.

[SoxnCycles]

As was yours on mine.

 

I haven't given up on DP yet. There are plenty of examples of players who struggled in the postseason initially, but then improved.

 

If only we had a choice in the matter.

We're stuck with him until his opt out.