Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[S5Dewey]

This raises an interesting question...

 

Is that "formula" for comparing WAR with a player's worth skewed, or is there a glitch in the calculation of WAR that makes a player's WAR higher than his actual worth? Maybe it's impossible to compare the two.

[moonslav59]

 

You're right about the relationship between WAR and real dollars. Otherwise a guy with a 10 WAR is worth 75 million on the market.

 

If there was a guarantee that a player would put up a 10 WAR in 2017, he'd probably get a $40-50M/1 year deal on the open market.

 

WAR is not a tool to project future WAR or dollar worth. It is a measure of past performance level.

[Bellhorn04]

This raises an interesting question...

 

Is that "formula" for comparing WAR with a player's worth skewed, or is there a glitch in the calculation of WAR that makes a player's WAR higher than his actual worth? Maybe it's impossible to compare the two.

 

I believe that FanGraphs calculates the dollar value per WAR based on actual free agent contracts.

 

So I think what's going on is that the seemingly inflated dollar values results from so many free agent contracts being busts, which makes the guys that actually perform worth a ton.

[moonslav59]

Some notable starter 2016 values (326 pitchers with 50+ IP):

 

Top 13

$52.3 Kershaw

$51.8M Syndergaar

$49.2 J Fernandez

$44.9 Scherzer

$43.8 Cueto

$41.8 Porcello

$41.5 Verlander & Sale

$40.6 Kluber

$39.3 Bumgarner

$38.3 Quintana

$36.9 Tanaka

$36.0 Price

 

Others

15 Lester $34.7

28 Hellickson $25.6

29 JA Happ $25.6

30 E Santana $25.4

31 jansen $25.3

32 J Teheran $25.3'

33 Pineda $25.3

34 Archer $25.1

35 Lackey $24.6

40 Pomeranz $23.8

42 Hamels $23.7

43 A Miller $23.6

52 Wright $22.1

53 D Duffy $22.1

57 Chapman $21.7

76 M Moore $16.3

86 J Odorizzi $16.3

102 Melancon $14.3

115 Wade Miley $12.2

128 Zimmerman $10.4

131 Ziegler $10.2

139 ERod $9.6

155 King Feliz $8.3

192 R Ross $5.8

218 Buchholz $3.9

227 M Barnes $3.5

241 Hembree $2.7

322 Shields -$7.6M

 

 

[bosoxmal]

How about Rich Hill! People on the old board called me all kinds of names when I said, "give hime the 6 that he wants, and let's get on with it!" He was the best pitcher in baseball for the entire month of September, 2015, and the Sox Genius Board said, "so long, Rich, you're too old!" (Jackasses)

[S5Dewey]

How about Rich Hill! People on the old board called me all kinds of names when I said, "give hime the 6 that he wants, and let's get on with it!" He was the best pitcher in baseball for the entire month of September, 2015, and the Sox Genius Board said, "so long, Rich, you're too old!" (Jackasses)

 

I don't disagree with you at all. In fact I wanted him signed too. However, my understanding is that one of his 'demands' was that he be guaranteed being a regular starter at least at the beginning of the season and that was something the Sox weren't willing to guarantee. And I can understand that. In my world nobody is guaranteed a starting position (unless they're a proven commodity like Pedey). Imagine the hoop-la if Sandoval had been guaranteed being a starter!

 

I hated to see him go but both parties had their needs and their needs didn't match up.

[Nick]

Some notable starter 2016 values (326 pitchers with 50+ IP):

 

Top 13

$52.3 Kershaw

$51.8M Syndergaar

$49.2 J Fernandez

$44.9 Scherzer

$43.8 Cueto

$41.8 Porcello

$41.5 Verlander & Sale

$40.6 Kluber

$39.3 Bumgarner

$38.3 Quintana

$36.9 Tanaka

$36.0 Price

 

Others

15 Lester $34.7

28 Hellickson $25.6

29 JA Happ $25.6

30 E Santana $25.4

31 jansen $25.3

32 J Teheran $25.3'

33 Pineda $25.3

34 Archer $25.1

35 Lackey $24.6

40 Pomeranz $23.8

42 Hamels $23.7

43 A Miller $23.6

52 Wright $22.1

53 D Duffy $22.1

57 Chapman $21.7

76 M Moore $16.3

86 J Odorizzi $16.3

102 Melancon $14.3

115 Wade Miley $12.2

128 Zimmerman $10.4

131 Ziegler $10.2

139 ERod $9.6

155 King Feliz $8.3

192 R Ross $5.8

218 Buchholz $3.9

227 M Barnes $3.5

241 Hembree $2.7

322 Shields -$7.6M

 

 

 

Porcello was better than both Sales and Quintana.

Sox had two in top 13.

Sox had three in top 40. (I think Pomeranz will be better next year after first full season as a starter)

Sox had four in top 52 (would have been much higher if not for the injury)

E Rod at 139 has a chance to crack top 50 next year in my opinion. He has good stuff.

 

Our starting rotation looks pretty good. At some point, both Price and Porcello just needs to get through the playoff jinx.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if its more prudent for us to not to resign Clay and use his $13M plus Tazawa's and Hanigan's money to sign a premium reliever.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

Porcello was better than both Sales and Quintana.

Sox had two in top 13.

Sox had three in top 40. (I think Pomeranz will be better next year after first full season as a starter)

Sox had four in top 52 (would have been much higher if not for the injury)

E Rod at 139 has a chance to crack top 50 next year in my opinion. He has good stuff.

 

Our starting rotation looks pretty good. At some point, both Price and Porcello just needs to get through the playoff jinx.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if its more prudent for us to not to resign Clay and use his $13M plus Tazawa's and Hanigan's money to sign a premium reliever.

 

Moon had the payroll pegged at $185M (including arbitration raises (which he thinks will be close to what is being predicted) and Clay's $13M option). We should have money to stack our bullpen. Say we sign a premium guy to go along with Kimbrel and re-sign Koji. That should give us pretty good pen.

[Dojji]

Love to go after Kenley Jansen. I have a serious mancrush on the guy, he's an amazing reliever and was the catcher for the Netherlands team that humiliated the DR in the WBC a decade ago.

[Bellhorn04]

How about Rich Hill! People on the old board called me all kinds of names when I said, "give hime the 6 that he wants, and let's get on with it!" He was the best pitcher in baseball for the entire month of September, 2015, and the Sox Genius Board said, "so long, Rich, you're too old!" (Jackasses)

 

I thought they should have signed him too.

[Bellhorn04]

Love to go after Kenley Jansen. I have a serious mancrush on the guy, he's an amazing reliever and was the catcher for the Netherlands team that humiliated the DR in the WBC a decade ago.

 

He'll be very pricy I expect. You'd think the filthy rich Dodgers would be quite interested in retaining him.

[Nick]

Tanaka has an opt out clause after 2017 season. Surely he can command better than his current salary of $22M. Yankees probably won't let that happen without a fight.

[Eddy Ballgame]

He'll be very pricy I expect. You'd think the filthy rich Dodgers would be quite interested in retaining him.

 

The Dodgers have reduced payroll the last 2 years and Friedman has said they plan to try to continue that trend, but everything I've read makes it sound like they will at least try to retain him (4/60?).

 

I can't see Boston going there for a reliever who will be 30 next year, especially with Kimbrel in the fold and the likelyhood that they'll have to go well past whatever value that they assign to him.

[bosoxmal]

I don't disagree with you at all. In fact I wanted him signed too. However, my understanding is that one of his 'demands' was that he be guaranteed being a regular starter at least at the beginning of the season and that was something the Sox weren't willing to guarantee. And I can understand that. In my world nobody is guaranteed a starting position (unless they're a proven commodity like Pedey). Imagine the hoop-la if Sandoval had been guaranteed being a starter!

 

I hated to see him go but both parties had their needs and their needs didn't match up.

 

I remember you were one of the very few who would even consider it because of his age. The issue of his being guaranteed a starter role was mentioned, but the way I heard it is that he wanted to considered a member of the starting rotation until, or unless, he showed he couldn't handle it. If it was unconditional guarantee then I could see saying 'goodbye', but from what I heard (or read) that wasn't quite the case. Ah well, Lester's gone, too.

 

The old Connie Mack remark that pitching was 70% of the game, it's truer today then it ever was. Ted Williams said, when he retired, that he was getting out just in time, the slider was killing him! The slider is also killing the young pitchers. Who doesn't come up with sore arms these days. Whp goes out and throws 300 pitches anymore? The Staff might have to be renamed The Platoon pretty soon.

[S5Dewey]

I said...

However, my understanding is that one of his 'demands' was that he be guaranteed being a regular starter at least at the beginning of the season

 

And then Mal said...

the way I heard it is that he wanted to considered a member of the starting rotation until, or unless, he showed he couldn't handle it.

 

I think we're saying the same thing.

 

Now, will someone please tell me how to do the multi-quote thing??!!

 

Thanks.

[Spudboy]

I said...

However, my understanding is that one of his 'demands' was that he be guaranteed being a regular starter at least at the beginning of the season

 

And then Mal said...

the way I heard it is that he wanted to considered a member of the starting rotation until, or unless, he showed he couldn't handle it.

 

I think we're saying the same thing.

 

Now, will someone please tell me how to do the multi-quote thing??!!

 

Thanks.

 

Just click the far right "+ icon for any post you wish to quote and then on the last post you wish to quote click "Reply with quote".

 

Then when you see the box show up you need to be careful where you enter text. You will see.

[S5Dewey]

Just click the far right "+ icon for any post you wish to quote and then on the last post you wish to quote click "Reply with quote".

 

Then when you see the box show up you need to be careful where you enter text. You will see.

 

Great. Thanks!

[moonslav59]

Moon had the payroll pegged at $185M (including arbitration raises (which he thinks will be close to what is being predicted) and Clay's $13M option). We should have money to stack our bullpen. Say we sign a premium guy to go along with Kimbrel and re-sign Koji. That should give us pretty good pen.

 

That might still leave enough to get a journeyman left-handed batter to play 3B and/or DH.

[moonslav59]

With Hill it was always about his health. It seemed easy to guarantee him a slot (as long as he was healthy), and having to smooth over Kelly or Buch's ruffled feathers would probably not have been as hard as many of us imagined.

 

Bosoxmal deserves an "atta boy".

[Dojji]

That might still leave enough to get a journeyman left-handed batter to play 3B and/or DH.

 

We've already got one of those. Before spending money and tying up space on the 25 man roster to bring in another one, we really should see what Shaw could give us next year.

[moonslav59]

We've already got one of those. Before spending money and tying up space on the 25 man roster to bring in another one, we really should see what Shaw could give us next year.

 

I almost have more faith in Hernandez, Holt and Moncada. I won't go so far as to say Pablo.

 

Shaw reminds me too much of Middy. Big flash, then back to reality.

 

Shaw had 668 PAs at AAA and a .715 OPS. His .795 OPS at AA in 870 PAs is also unimpressive.

 

I think even expecting him to play at his career .754 MLB OPS is asking for too much.

 

I'm not writing him off, but I'm not betting on him winning the job either.

 

I agree that signing another 3B scrub makes little sense. Assuming no 3B pick-ups, here's how I would put the odds on who is the opening day 3Bman (barring injury) and who plays the most innings at 3B next year:

 

Opening Day:

33% Holt

25% Shaw

17% Moncada

10% Pablo

10% Hernandez

5% Swihart

 

Most 3B Innings by season end:

33% Moncada

20% Holt

20% Shaw

10% Swihart

10% Hernandez

7% Pablo

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

What do the odds for Pablo pay out? I'll take those.

[moonslav59]

What do the odds for Pablo pay out? I'll take those.

 

I don't bet anymore... not since "Black Sunday" many years back, when a bunch of buddies and I, I kid you not, lost 30 of 32 bets placed.

[Kimmi]

I kept saying during last season that we should hold off criticizing the extension, until the extension actually begins (in 2016). I loved the extension from day one for one reason: every year in the deal falls within his prime.

 

I liked the deal as well. Not only because of Porcello's age, but because of his peripherals and because of the awful defense that he had playing behind him in Detroit. There was every reason to believe that he would live up to the contract.

[Kimmi]

What that tells me is that WAR is on a sliding scale....it's not dollar for dollar increase as WAR increases.....how do I know? No one will give out $41M contract for Porcello's performance, irregardless of his outstanding season.

 

No, $41 million is not what he's going to get paid on the open market, but it is what he's worth to the team in terms of wins.

[Nick]

No, $41 million is not what he's going to get paid on the open market, but it is what he's worth to the team in terms of wins.

 

You will have to type slower so that I can understand what you just wrote.

[Dojji]

What she said was, basically, if you knew that a guy was always gonna give you 22 wins, 223 IP and an ERA in the low 3's, 41M isn't too much to pay for that player. That's the value in contracts for a win contribution of that magnitude. You have to admit, Porcello's year was pretty special.

 

Now it's ridiculous to expect Porcello to replicate this season next year, that's why he's not paid $41M/year, but it's an example of how big contracts CAN pay off. We are paying a lot for Porcello but it's hard to argue with the fact that a 22 win season returned us far greater value than we're paying. That's what that valuation means.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Dojji

[Kimmi]

You will have to type slower so that I can understand what you just wrote.

 

Basically, teams paid approximately $8 million per win through free agency this season. Therefore, Porcello's 5.2 WAR is worth $41.8 million to the team. Porcello would not make that much as a free agent for 2 reasons.

 

One, free agents get their worth in a contract through the length of the contract, not through $/year. Your really good free agents, like Price, sacrifice what they are actually worth per year to get the 7+ year contracts. Price may be worth $35 million this year, but he likely will be worth far less than that by year 7. If he were willing to sign a one year deal, he might have received a $50 mil/one year contract.

 

Two, while Porcello was worth $41 million this year, there is no guarantee that he will continue to be worth that much next year or any year after that. Regression due to aging is factored into free agent contracts, which sort of goes along with point one.

[Kimmi]

What she said was, basically, if you knew that a guy was always gonna give you 22 wins, 223 IP and an ERA in the low 3's, 41M isn't too much to pay for that player. That's the value in contracts for a win contribution of that magnitude. You have to admit, Porcello's year was pretty special.

 

Now it's ridiculous to expect Porcello to replicate this season next year, that's why he's not paid $41M/year, but it's an example of how big contracts CAN pay off. We are paying a lot for Porcello but it's hard to argue with the fact that a 22 win season returned us far greater value than we're paying. That's what that valuation means.

 

Basically, that's it.

[Nick]

Basically, that's it.

 

Thanks....