Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[oldtimer]

We are busy considering pitching moves we might make for the coming year. The area of starting pitching is one where we have elements of a decent staff. When considering changes, I would assume we are planning on keeping the format of 5 starters and 7 relievers. With half the games played at Fenway, I would think that would favor a right hand pitching bias due to park dimensions. We have Porcello, Price, Wright, E-Rod and Pomeranz with Buchholz as a possible as well. Since it is very unlikely that we can go through and entire season without some injuries to starters, we do need starting depth, whether it be expressed as a long reliever or from AAA or both.

 

I think we also understand that the regular season and playoffs, if we are so fortunate to make it in 2017 require somewhat different talents so we need to consider that when we look for acquisitions through trades or FA's. Since the FA market is not strong this year, the trade market is probably our best bet.

 

During the regular season, it is important to have inning eaters, starters who can often go 7 or more innings and by doing so reduce the wear and tear on the BP. Based on 2016 we may have 3 of those. Porcello was excellent in that regard, Price is a workhorse and Wright (if he can return to form) is also capable of going deep into games. E-Rod showed signs of really coming on but still is more of a 6 inning guy and Pomeranz may do well starting the season fresh and rested. Buchholz didn't really show the capability to stay in games. So, in my view, we have 5 likely starters, although 3 of those are left handed, (not optimum at Fenway). Buchholz or Pomeranz might be looked at as long relievers with a likelihood of picking up as starters should anyone get hurt.

 

In the playoffs, our starters didn't fare so well. Porcello went away from his two seamer and may yet show his ability to win in the playoffs. Price has had a lot of chances and was unable to win a game in many tries. We didn't get a chance to try wright and E-Rod may have had that potential, we just didn't get far enough to see.

 

Going forward, I would be looking to add Quintana over Sale, if possible and would be willing to cut Buchholz loose or even Pomeranz, but not E-Rod, Porcello, Price (not possible anyway) or Wright. I am assuming Quintana could bolster both the regular season and playoff pitching staff. I would think finding a long reliever if we lose Buch and/or Pom would be easy enough. We still have some young arms in AAA ball and should keep our best there for potential starting roles should our starters get disabled during the season.

 

Having a main rotation of Porcello, Quintana, Price, E-Rod and Wright would give the Sox one of the best in baseball and some of the AAA kids are improving as backups.

[Dojji]

Guys I'll be honest -- I have no idea where this meme comes from that Quintana is available. It sure as hell doesn't come from any credible source. And it doesn't come from an honest thoughtful analysis of the White Sox situation.

 

I'd write off Quintana as an acquisition target until there's ANY smoke -- at ALL. The price of a guy like that with no behavior question marks and years left on a very cash-reasonable deal, would be WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY outside even the scope of a guy like DD.

 

We're talking about probably the most individually valuable asset in all of baseball -- and Chicago really has no reason at all to consider trading it. Chicago wasn't that far out of contention this year, they were right around .500 and their biggest issue was a lack of consistent offense. That's not all that difficult to fix with FA and a few moderate trades, no responsible GM would give up on Sale or Quintana without taking a couple more years to patch the other holes in the roster and see if they can make the magic happen.

 

In short there's NO indiciation that the White Sox want to, need to, or even should blow it up and deal their crown jewels for a bag of maybes and prospects. Maybe in a couple years, but right now the White Sox' major issues seem solvable, so no sane GM would blow up the team at the moment.

 

All the White Sox need to get back into contention is to sign some impact bats, and they're by no means a poorhouse team, they easily have the money to throw some contracts around. IF they sign EE and grab a decent outfielder or two, they're right back in it for all intents and purposes, and then Quintana and Sale become their primary weapon to try to win championships. There is simply no credible reason for the White Sox to willingly part with either one of those pitchers.

Edited October 18, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Guys I'll be honest -- I have no idea where this meme comes from that Quintana is available. It sure as hell doesn't come from any credible source. And it doesn't come from an honest thoughtful analysis of the White Sox situation.

 

I'd write off Quintana as an acquisition target until there's ANY smoke -- at ALL. The price of a guy like that with no behavior question marks and years left on a very cash-reasonable deal, would be WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY outside even the scope of a guy like DD.

 

We're talking about probably the most individually valuable asset in all of baseball -- and Chicago really has no reason at all to consider trading it. Chicago wasn't that far out of contention this year, they were right around .500 and their biggest issue was a lack of consistent offense. That's not all that difficult to fix with FA and a few moderate trades, no responsible GM would give up on Sale or Quintana without taking a couple more years to patch the other holes in the roster and see if they can make the magic happen.

 

In short there's NO indiciation that the White Sox want to, need to, or even should blow it up and deal their crown jewels for a bag of maybes and prospects. Maybe in a couple years, but right now the White Sox' major issues seem solvable, so no sane GM would blow up the team at the moment.

 

All the White Sox need to get back into contention is to sign some impact bats, and they're by no means a poorhouse team, they easily have the money to throw some contracts around. IF they sign EE and grab a decent outfielder or two, they're right back in it for all intents and purposes, and then Quintana and Sale become their primary weapon to try to win championships. There is simply no credible reason for the White Sox to willingly part with either one of those pitchers.

 

The hint for me that this may all be a pipe dream was the rumor that the CWS wanted JBJ and other ML ready prospects (Moncada?) for Sale, the guy they have had issues with for quite some time. This was not a sign of "starting over" or some massive purge. It was just a sign of trying to keep competing but in a different way.

 

I realize the Quintana idea is probably just a dream, but there does seem to be more unrest on the CWS than just with Sale, so I'm holding out on a sliver of a dream.

[Dojji]

I don't mind dreaming, but people generally on the forum seem to be getting the impression that grabbing Quintana is possible or even practical. If this forum is going to be trying to live the Quintana dream all hot stove season, I will honestly and literally go insane. This isn't the first time this has happened with a pitcher who is completely unavailable and the creatively stunted among us keep pencilling them into our rotation next year anyway (Jake Peavey back in the mid oughts, I remember a Cliff Lee lustfest era, you get the idea) and it gets a bit tiresome after awhile.

 

You'd be doing me a favor, Moonslav, if, at the very least, you perpetuate more than one "dream."

[SoxnCycles]

I don't see the Sox adding another top of the rotation pitcher this off season.

As Moon stated in another post, the bullpen needs more help.

 

They'll add some depth at starting pitching but that's about it.

[moonslav59]

I don't mind dreaming, but people generally on the forum seem to be getting the impression that grabbing Quintana is possible or even practical. If this forum is going to be trying to live the Quintana dream all hot stove season, I will honestly and literally go insane. This isn't the first time this has happened with a pitcher who is completely unavailable and the creatively stunted among us keep pencilling them into our rotation next year anyway (Jake Peavey back in the mid oughts, I remember a Cliff Lee lustfest era, you get the idea) and it gets a bit tiresome after awhile.

 

You'd be doing me a favor, Moonslav, if, at the very least, you perpetuate more than one "dream."

 

Funny thing is Peavy and Lee changed teams several times in their prime, so I'm not sure those are good examples.

 

I think the real chance might come with Sale, but he likely won't be gotten by giving up far away prospects like Devers, Basabe or Groome. They'll probably want JBJ , Swihart and Kopech (or more), and that will just create another need.

 

However, having the ability to move Beni or Betts to CF and find a LF'er is much easier than finding an ace at such a reasonable salary. I don't want to be accused of beating the Sale horse to death (I already have), but there just aren't many aces available.

 

While I have said our more pressing need is the pen and 3B, getting an ace is always something that should be explored, especially when one seems to be on the block.

[moonslav59]

I don't see the Sox adding another top of the rotation pitcher this off season.

As Moon stated in another post, the bullpen needs more help.

 

I'd actually rather get an ace than a RP'er or two, but I'm not sure we have the pieces to get one without destroying another aspect of our roster. We already spent valuable prospects on a closer and mid level starter, so our choices are now limited.

 

Getting pen help and a bridge 3Bman is probably what will happen. (That doesn't mean I'd choose it.)

 

They'll add some depth at starting pitching but that's about it.

 

I think Buch is the depth we'll have.If we end up needing more, as we needed 16 starts beyond our "big 6", I think we'll have to hope Owens, Johnson, Elias, Kelly or eventually Kopech can fill the void. If not, we'll look for another PomPom-like trade mid summer.

[Dojji]

I think the most likely way we're going to land an ace in this offseason is to do a buy-low on a guy like Dallas Keuchel or Sonny Gray and count on a bounceback year. And frankly not only are the teams who hold those contracts likely to want to hold onto them and see if their value recovers and they can sell at a higher probe, but we already have some decent candidates for a bounceback or improvement already on the roster.

[moonslav59]

I think the most likely way we're going to land an ace in this offseason is to do a buy-low on a guy like Dallas Keuchel or Sonny Gray and count on a bounceback year. And frankly not only are the teams who hold those contracts likely to want to hold onto them and see if their value recovers and they can sell at a higher probe, but we already have some decent candidates for a bounceback or improvement already on the roster.

 

Good point, or just find someone nobody thought was an ace, but who becomes one.

[Dojji]

Given his performance last year I'm actually really interested in seeing what Steven Wright does in a full season next year. He was very effective over 150 innings. Borderline acelike for much of that. I want to see if he can build on that, because I think Wright is actually still a little underrated by some people.

[moonslav59]

Given his performance last year I'm actually really interested in seeing what Steven Wright does in a full season next year. He was very effective over 150 innings. Borderline acelike for much of that. I want to see if he can build on that, because I think Wright is actually still a little underrated by some people.

 

I've been a Wright supporter for years. I was bummed out when he missed his chance in 2015.

 

I also think ERod could be an ace waiting to blossum.

 

Pom pitched like an ace the first half with the Padres, but I don't see him ever being a true ace.

 

Buch can and has pitched like an ace, but usually for no more than a half season.

[Dojji]

That's a point worth pondering. One of the largest factors in a lot of recent playoff runs is a very deep bullpen. The Royals last year I don't think allowed a single run after the 7th inning in the WS, it was instrumental to their 3 comeback wins in the series. It would have played in their favor in 14 as well if the Giants didn't have Bumgarner being Bumgarner on short rest in game 7.

 

REally important to have those extra 2-3 arms you can count on to hang a donut on the board when you need it. That's the difference between an adequate bullpen and a great one. and a great bullpen can make a HUGE difference.

[Nick]

If healthy, out starting rotation is good enough to get us into the playoffs. We'll hopefully have a full year of Pomeranz, Wright and E Rod. Any drop off to Porcello should be picked up by uptick from Price.

 

Other teams are able to 'develop' good starting pitchers. I see no reason why E Rod can't similarly improve coming into his third year. His spring training injury set him back last year. He looked stronger to me in September. He has exhibited toughness in tight situations. He was the ONLY pitcher I wanted to watch in dog days of summer of 2015. I oppose any deal where E Rod is traded. Trade Kopech instead. No way I'm giving up on a 23 year old left-hander who maybe on the cusp of top of the line potential.

 

There's no reason not to expect better production out of likes of Kelly, Barnes and Ross Jr. It's as much crap shoot as acquiring relievers in open market. Really would be interested in knowing estimated time of arrival for Carson Smith.

 

I don't think we'll handle two of three positions (1B, DH and 3B with Hanley either at 1B or DH) by 'committee' but I'll pat myself on the back for not spending penny in my discussion.

[moonslav59]

If healthy, out starting rotation is good enough to get us into the playoffs. We'll hopefully have a full year of Pomeranz, Wright and E Rod. Any drop off to Porcello should be picked up by uptick from Price.

 

Other teams are able to 'develop' good starting pitchers. I see no reason why E Rod can't similarly improve coming into his third year. His spring training injury set him back last year. He looked stronger to me in September. He has exhibited toughness in tight situations. He was the ONLY pitcher I wanted to watch in dog days of summer of 2015. I oppose any deal where E Rod is traded. Trade Kopech instead. No way I'm giving up on a 23 year old left-hander who maybe on the cusp of top of the line potential.

 

There's no reason not to expect better production out of likes of Kelly, Barnes and Ross Jr. It's as much crap shoot as acquiring relievers in open market. Really would be interested in knowing estimated time of arrival for Carson Smith.

 

I don't think we'll handle two of three positions (1B, DH and 3B with Hanley either at 1B or DH) by 'committee' but I'll pat myself on the back for not spending penny in my discussion.

 

Good points all around, especially on ERod.

 

I think we can hope for more of the same from Ross, which has been pretty darn good, and good seasons from 3 or 4 out of C Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and Scott. A return to form from Kimbrel would also be a huge boost. I still think there's too much hoping and praying going on with the pen without Zeigler, Uehara and Tazawa. Assuming all starters are healthy (unlikely), we can add Buch or Pom to the pen, but even then, I think we fall short by at least 1 top quality pen arm. I can't see us standing pat with this pen.

 

The rotation shows much more promise, and you hit on a few reasons why. Last winter we were dreaming of Buch and Kelly having full productive seasons with Price, Porcello & ERod commanding the TOR. The ERod injury hurt, but it did provide a slot for Wright to come in and save the day. Looking at GS'd this year vs projected next year, there's a ton of room for improvement:

 

Price 35 GS'd to 33 (-2)

Porcello 33 to 33 (No change)

Wright 24 to 28 (+4)

ERod 20 to 28 (+8)

Pomeranz 13 to 25 (+12)

Buchholz 21 to 15 (-6)

Kelly 6 > 0

Owens 5>0

O'Sullivan 4>0

Elias 1> 0

 

[Nick]

Also having S Wright for 4 MORE YEARS under team control to me is very comforting. He should be solid, inning eater for us. He essentially replaced Wade Miley for us and may turn out much more effective. I still have some hopes for Pomeranz to get better, as last year was his first year as a full time starter. He may be someone we can also extend relatively cheap in the future.

 

I'm not sure if Kopech's future is in starting rotation but he too suffered spring training set back (self inflicted injury). He looks good on videos. Semi deceptive motion to go along with power pitching. At the very least, he seems to possess 8th inning set up guy ability.

 

Anyone else see Brian Johnson as another bullpen opton if there's not a spot available in starting rotation?

 

My hope is for Price to win next two Cy Young and World Series MVP and then opt out of his contract. I can dream right?

Edited October 18, 2016 by Nick

[Slasher9]

i was thinking of starting a new thread on this topic but suppose it should go here.

 

what does everyone predict for David Price 2017?

 

im going with: shelled in April followed by elbow surgery out for the rest of the year.

i dont suppose it's in the contract that the player controlled year 3 opt out turns into a team controlled opt out if significant arm injury????

[Bellhorn04]

i was thinking of starting a new thread on this topic but suppose it should go here.

 

what does everyone predict for David Price 2017?

 

im going with: shelled in April followed by elbow surgery out for the rest of the year.

i dont suppose it's in the contract that the player controlled year 3 opt out turns into a team controlled opt out if significant arm injury????

 

That's pretty pessimistic about a guy who hasn't had serious health issues before.

[Slasher9]

That's pretty pessimistic about a guy who hasn't had serious health issues before.

 

this may come as a surprise but im not really a David Price fan. i hated the signing. i wanted Cueto for less years and less $$$$.

my feelings for Price are the same as my feelings for Lackey were. the slight difference is Lackey shows up his fielders and Price doesnt show up for big games...

[moonslav59]

i was thinking of starting a new thread on this topic but suppose it should go here.

 

what does everyone predict for David Price 2017?

 

im going with: shelled in April followed by elbow surgery out for the rest of the year.

i dont suppose it's in the contract that the player controlled year 3 opt out turns into a team controlled opt out if significant arm injury????

 

I think Price will have Porcello's (2016) year, and Porcello will have Price's (2016) year.

[moonslav59]

Also having S Wright for 4 MORE YEARS under team control to me is very comforting. He should be solid, inning eater for us. He essentially replaced Wade Miley for us and may turn out much more effective. I still have some hopes for Pomeranz to get better, as last year was his first year as a full time starter. He may be someone we can also extend relatively cheap in the future.

 

I'm not sure if Kopech's future is in starting rotation but he too suffered spring training set back (self inflicted injury). He looks good on videos. Semi deceptive motion to go along with power pitching. At the very least, he seems to possess 8th inning set up guy ability.

 

Anyone else see Brian Johnson as another bullpen opton if there's not a spot available in starting rotation?

 

My hope is for Price to win next two Cy Young and World Series MVP and then opt out of his contract. I can dream right?

 

Years of team control on our rotation:

 

Price: 2 (opt out) or 6 (no opt out)

Porcello: 3

Rodriguez: (arb not set yet, so maybe 4 years?)

Wright: 4 (3 arbs)

Pomeranz: 2 (both arbs)

Buchholz 0 or 1 (option)

 

Kelly: 2 arbs

Elias: 4 (3 arbs)

Owens & Johnson (arbs not set yet)

 

The Pen:

Kimbrel: 1 or 2 (option)

C Smith: 4 (3 arbs)

R Ross: 2 arbs

Abad: 1 arb (no minor league options remaining)

Workman: 3 arbs

All others: no arbs set yet

 

[Nick]

Years of team control on our rotation:

 

Price: 2 (opt out) or 6 (no opt out)

Porcello: 3

Rodriguez: (arb not set yet, so maybe 4 years?)

Wright: 4 (3 arbs)

Pomeranz: 2 (both arbs)

Buchholz 0 or 1 (option)

 

Kelly: 2 arbs

Elias: 4 (3 arbs)

Owens & Johnson (arbs not set yet)

 

The Pen:

Kimbrel: 1 or 2 (option)

C Smith: 4 (3 arbs)

R Ross: 2 arbs

Abad: 1 arb (no minor league options remaining)

Workman: 3 arbs

All others: no arbs set yet

 

 

Rodriquez only had 130 days coming into 2016 so he'll be under team control for another 5 years. He'll be eligible for arbitration in 2018 and will have 4 years of arbitration, similar to JBJ. (one reason I have hard time thinking Sox will trade him)

 

I would wait on Moncada until June of 2017 to call him up from minors (thus his service time will be less than 172 days at the end of 2017)....he will then be team controlled for 6 years beginning in 2018.

Edited October 18, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Rodriquez only had 130 days coming into 2016 so he'll be under team control for another 5 years. He'll be eligible for arbitration in 2018 and will have 4 years of arbitration, similar to JBJ. (one reason I have hard time thinking Sox will trade him)

 

I would wait on Moncada until June of 2017 to call him up from minors (thus his service time will be less than 172 days at the end of 2017)....he will then be team controlled for 6 years beginning in 2018.

 

I'm not doubting your math. I'm wondering why Cots doesn't list his arb years yet.

 

5 years is great news and does make it less likely I'd agree to trade him.

[harmony]

I think Price will have Porcello's (2016) year, and Porcello will have Price's (2016) year.

I expressed this precise sentiment to a Red Sox fan today.

Edited October 18, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I expressed this precise sentiment to a Red Sox fan today.

 

Of course, they both could have seasons somewhere in between, better or heaven forbid, worse.

[Kimmi]

Of course, they both could have seasons somewhere in between, better or heaven forbid, worse.

 

Both pitchers are likely to regress a bit, Price to the good and Porcello to the bad.

 

It should be a very good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

[Kimmi]

I would like to point out that Porcello had a 5.2 WAR, worth $41.8 million, in the first year of his contract extension.

[moonslav59]

I would like to point out that Porcello had a 5.2 WAR, worth $41.8 million, in the first year of his contract extension.

 

I kept saying during last season that we should hold off criticizing the extension, until the extension actually begins (in 2016). I loved the extension from day one for one reason: every year in the deal falls within his prime.

 

[Nick]

I would like to point out that Porcello had a 5.2 WAR, worth $41.8 million, in the first year of his contract extension.[/Q

 

What that tells me is that WAR is on a sliding scale....it's not dollar for dollar increase as WAR increases.....how do I know? No one will give out $41M contract for Porcello's performance, irregardless of his outstanding season.

[Bellhorn04]

I kept saying during last season that we should hold off criticizing the extension, until the extension actually begins (in 2016). I loved the extension from day one for one reason: every year in the deal falls within his prime.

 

Personally I looked at it as a 5 year deal for 95 million. The extension was signed before he threw a pitch.

[Bellhorn04]

I would like to point out that Porcello had a 5.2 WAR, worth $41.8 million, in the first year of his contract extension.[/Q

 

What that tells me is that WAR is on a sliding scale....it's not dollar for dollar increase as WAR increases.....how do I know? No one will give out $41M contract for Porcello's performance, irregardless of his outstanding season.

 

You're right about the relationship between WAR and real dollars. Otherwise a guy with a 10 WAR is worth 75 million on the market.