2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Hugh2]

Glad to see this. Moncada's development has been unlike most if not all of the prospects that we have recently had. It is not like he had been playing second base for a lifetime. He is just a kid and no one here for sure has any clue what he was up to in Cuba. The organization had a f***ing blank check with this one. He said he liked second base the most so that is where they put him. that being said, it won't make one bit of difference. Anybody could have seen that second base was not going to be his ticket to the major leagues for sometime. He obviously has played all over the place. It makes no difference but pardon me for not getting the shivers when someone starts telling me how good our player development is. Someone mentioned Mookie earlier - all second base until someone in their infinite wisdom realized that that wasn't happening so he gets moved to the outfield. Common sense to me says that if you have a choice then you put the player where he might actually play someday if he has been all over the field.. It won't make any difference.

 

 

Player development happens from the bottom up, it never happens from the top down. When a guy is close to the bigs that philosophy flip flops. Maybe that's not sensible on this forum but that is literally how every team handles player development. It's the gold standard.

[moonslav59]

The system hasn't worked that well in the pitching department.

 

The scouts and men at the top have changed over the years, so I'm not sure we can say the system we have in place this minute is not conducive to proper pitcher development.

 

Espi, Kopech and Groome will be the future examples of how well Sox management has done in choosing (Espi, Groome, TBall and Kopech) and developing (Groome, Kopech & TBall) our pitching prospects.

 

I'm not saying we have reason to be optimistic, but I think the extreme pessimism may be unfounded.

[Hugh2]

The system hasn't worked that well in the pitching department.

 

The scouts and men at the top have changed over the years, so I'm not sure we can say the system we have in place this minute is not conducive to proper pitcher development.

 

Espi, Kopech and Groome will be the future examples of how well Sox management has done in choosing (Espi, Groome, TBall and Kopech) and developing (Groome, Kopech & TBall) our pitching prospects.

 

I'm not saying we have reason to be optimistic, but I think the extreme pessimism may be unfounded.

 

People also forget that drafting and developing good pitching is the hardest thing to do in MLB. Almost all good starting pitchers in baseball were top 15 picks in the draft, so there's that. There are a few guys here an there like Madison Bumgarner and Chris archer who make it past the first round but they are some of the rarest commodities in baseball. Seriously go look at the top 10 pitchers in baseball every year for the past 10 years. Almost all of them were out of reach by the time this team drafted with the few caveats of a couple international guys such as Tanaka, Fernandez, and Quintana. But the vast majority of Fernandez and Quintana types end up being busts. Luck plays a HUGE role. This team has been unlucky on that side of the ball, but it's balanced out well because I don't think any team has had their position prospects hit and hit as fast as ours have over the past 3 years.

 

It might be frustrating to see this team not develop a pitcher in recent years, but we've been absolutely spoiled on the other side of the ball.

[moonslav59]

People also forget that drafting and developing good pitching is the hardest thing to do in MLB. Almost all good starting pitchers in baseball were top 15 picks in the draft, so there's that. There are a few guys here an there like Madison Bumgarner and Chris archer who make it past the first round but they are some of the rarest commodities in baseball. Seriously go look at the top 10 pitchers in baseball every year for the past 10 years. Almost all of them were out of reach by the time this team drafted with the few caveats of a couple international guys such as Tanaka, Fernandez, and Quintana. But the vast majority of Fernandez and Quintana types end up being busts. Luck plays a HUGE role. This team has been unlucky on that side of the ball, but it's balanced out well because I don't think any team has had their position prospects hit and hit as fast as ours have over the past 3 years.

 

It might be frustrating to see this team not develop a pitcher in recent years, but we've been absolutely spoiled on the other side of the ball.

 

Great points, and severely negatively judging the Sox on the TBall pick is not recognizing the odds of hitting pay dirt with a top 10 pitcher drafted.

 

Here are our top pitchers or top 38 picked-pitchers drafted each year:

2016: 12 Groome

2015: 171 Lakins

2014: 33 Kopech

2013: 7 TBall

2012: 31 Johnson/37 Light

2011: 19 Barnes/36 Owens

2010: 39 Ranaudo

2009: 77 A Wilson

2008: 30 Kelly

2007: 55 Hagadone

2006: 28 Bard

2005: 26 Hansen (42 Buchholz)

2004: 3rd round A Dobies

2003: 2nd round A Alvarez

2002: 2nd round J Lester

 

We've only had 3 pitchers drafted in the top 20 over this period....only 2 in the top 12.

 

 

 

[cp176]

Player development happens from the bottom up, it never happens from the top down. When a guy is close to the bigs that philosophy flip flops. Maybe that's not sensible on this forum but that is literally how every team handles player development. It's the gold standard.

 

I really do get this. I agree with the theory as well as the practice. I just happen to think that Moncada's situation was and probably still is dramatically different than other young players that we have signed.

[sk7326]

Smarter? Probably half of this board including our high schoolers are "smarter" than our player development guys. I don't expect them to be "smart". I just want them to be good at their jobs, but when it comes to developing pitchers they suck.

 

they trade them often ... and since we like major league baseball we often don't miss them ... and then in their draft positions pitchers are rarely the best guys available

[Hugh2]

they trade them often ... and since we like major league baseball we often don't miss them ... and then in their draft positions pitchers are rarely the best guys available

 

This, and the problem was made worse make in 2011 when the changed the draft rules making it harder to throw money at sign-ability guys after round 1. But even then finding guys after the first round like Jacob Degroome and Chris Archer has proved to be a very rare thing.

[moonslav59]

I really do get this. I agree with the theory as well as the practice. I just happen to think that Moncada's situation was and probably still is dramatically different than other young players that we have signed.

 

I get it too, and it does make total sense.

 

Moncada's situation was unique in several ways.

 

1) Cuban ball players are unique by themselves. Several make the jump to the bigs after very short stints on the farm.

2) He had no "true position" to begin with.

3) His offense, particularly against RHPs was probably close to Ml ready near day one in the system.

 

I think the Sox knew what they were doing, but am worried about his lack of time at 3B, if they plan to throw him in there now. I'm not saying they screwed up. I'm just saying 10 games does not feel right to me.

 

[cp176]

I get it too, and it does make total sense.

 

Moncada's situation was unique in several ways.

 

1) Cuban ball players are unique by themselves. Several make the jump to the bigs after very short stints on the farm.

2) He had no "true position" to begin with.

3) His offense, particularly against RHPs was probably close to Ml ready near day one in the system.

 

I think the Sox knew what they were doing, but am worried about his lack of time at 3B, if they plan to throw him in there now. I'm not saying they screwed up. I'm just saying 10 games does not feel right to me.

 

 

I agree with you but I do think that we will see him at third. There is no question that his youth and athleticism will infuse a little new blood into that lineup. Have to think that we all will be anxious until he gets a few hit his way. Adds a little excitement for sure and it could turn out to be a game changer for us.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you but I do think that we will see him at third. There is no question that his youth and athleticism will infuse a little new blood into that lineup. Have to think that we all will be anxious until he gets a few hit his way. Adds a little excitement for sure and it could turn out to be a game changer for us.

 

I think he'll play too. I'm not saying I think he'll do badly, but just that we know so little, I'm uncertain of his defensive level at this time.

[Hugh2]

I get it too, and it does make total sense.

 

Moncada's situation was unique in several ways.

 

1) Cuban ball players are unique by themselves. Several make the jump to the bigs after very short stints on the farm.

2) He had no "true position" to begin with.

3) His offense, particularly against RHPs was probably close to Ml ready near day one in the system.

 

I think the Sox knew what they were doing, but am worried about his lack of time at 3B, if they plan to throw him in there now. I'm not saying they screwed up. I'm just saying 10 games does not feel right to me.

 

 

Not that I completely disagree with you here but I do want to add my critique.

 

1.) while this is true, I think it is partially due to them being in a different system than other international players. Most guys taken internationally and subjected to the international rules get signed when they are 16 years old, a lot of these high profile cubans are much older when they sign. When Puig signed he was 21 years old and was 22 when he made his debut. Moncada is year older than Puig was when he made his debut. Jose Abreu was 27 when he made his MLB debut. Profar made the jump to the bigs in about the same time as Moncada, but was sent down for the next 2 years and has only made it back up this year as a 23 year old and is doing pretty mediocre. Jose Iglesias rushed through the minors in about 2 years but he was rushed for his defense and didn't really establish himself as a player until he was 23. Moncada is being rushed for the opposite reasons.

 

2. I don't think it really matters that he did or did not have a "true" position in Cuba. It's the concept of sticking a guy where you think he will play best, and you let him develop there. You don't screw with his head and make him learn new things when you want him to focus on his offensive game. If the team feels a guy can help the club and needs to switch positions he doesn't need the mental focus on developing an approach that he had before.

 

3. I doubt this, day one he was barely 20 years old and put up a .813 OPS in low A ball, he did have a .950 left handed....but again this was in LOW a ball. I don't think we can decipher how he would have handled making the jump up 4 levels at that point. I think he's ready from the left side now.

 

If anything, I think I'd be more on board with your argument if we were to say that the Sox should give him more time at 3B, but he's ready to close to ready and the club thinks he can help now. He can still go to the Arizona fall league and get reps in at 3B and get some time there in spring training as well. He could also spend a month in Pawtucket next year to polish up his game in the beginning of the year too.

[moonslav59]

Not that I completely disagree with you here but I do want to add my critique.

 

1.) while this is true, I think it is partially due to them being in a different system than other international players. Most guys taken internationally and subjected to the international rules get signed when they are 16 years old, a lot of these high profile cubans are much older when they sign. When Puig signed he was 21 years old and was 22 when he made his debut. Moncada is year older than Puig was when he made his debut. Jose Abreu was 27 when he made his MLB debut. Profar made the jump to the bigs in about the same time as Moncada, but was sent down for the next 2 years and has only made it back up this year as a 23 year old and is doing pretty mediocre. Jose Iglesias rushed through the minors in about 2 years but he was rushed for his defense and didn't really establish himself as a player until he was 23. Moncada is being rushed for the opposite reasons.

 

2. I don't think it really matters that he did or did not have a "true" position in Cuba. It's the concept of sticking a guy where you think he will play best, and you let him develop there. You don't screw with his head and make him learn new things when you want him to focus on his offensive game. If the team feels a guy can help the club and needs to switch positions he doesn't need the mental focus on developing an approach that he had before.

 

3. I doubt this, day one he was barely 20 years old and put up a .813 OPS in low A ball, he did have a .950 left handed....but again this was in LOW a ball. I don't think we can decipher how he would have handled making the jump up 4 levels at that point. I think he's ready from the left side now.

 

If anything, I think I'd be more on board with your argument if we were to say that the Sox should give him more time at 3B, but he's ready to close to ready and the club thinks he can help now. He can still go to the Arizona fall league and get reps in at 3B and get some time there in spring training as well. He could also spend a month in Pawtucket next year to polish up his game in the beginning of the year too.

 

All great points.

 

I guess what I am having trouble with is the determination of when a player is ML ready and that is the only point when a new position should be tried.

 

I totally get the protocol and why it is the way it is. Really, I do.

 

However, when a player is on a meteoric rise and the club is thinking there is a significant chance the player may be called up the minute they think he's ready, then, as with what happened here with Moncada, they speed up the timetable, so the player can play his new position when he is called up. They must have known Moncada might be called up on September 1st weeks ago.

 

Do you personally think they moved Moncada to 3B after some reps there as soon as they felt he was ML ready, or did they tweek the timetable just enough so he'd be called up September 1st after having what they determined was all the time he needed at 3B to be "ready". We're only talking days and weeks here, so being "ready" is probably not something that happens or is determined from one minute to the next. It's not like they say, "Oh, he went 5 for 5 today- he's ready now!"

 

The word "ready" is so ambiguous due to the many levels of "ready" and the team "needs" factor that may over-rule "readiness".

 

I actually was not expecting Moncada to play 3B with Boston this year, even after he started taking reps at 3B shortly after I suggested they do it. I thought the winter league and spring training was not even enough for him to be completely ready to play 3B any significant amount of time. His youth and lack of experience at high level baseball makes him playing 3B after just 10 games a little different than Bogey in 2013. Maybe he's more of an "athlete" than Bogey, but Bogey was a SS and had more time on the Sox farm than Moncada. Maybe I'm discounting Cuban baseball too much.

 

I guess my real question is that if we knew he was coming up 9/1 to play 3B, I think they should have moved him to 3B earlier than 10 days, despite the protocol. We're not even sure he will play 3B a lot, but it looks like he will. I'm not pretending to know more than the Sox. maybe they watched him at 3B and said, "Wow, he is ready!" If that's the case, I have no issues.

 

[Hugh2]

All great points.

 

I guess what I am having trouble with is the determination of when a player is ML ready and that is the only point when a new position should be tried.

 

I totally get the protocol and why it is the way it is. Really, I do.

 

However, when a player is on a meteoric rise and the club is thinking there is a significant chance the player may be called up the minute they think he's ready, then, as with what happened here with Moncada, they speed up the timetable, so the player can play his new position when he is called up. They must have known Moncada might be called up on September 1st weeks ago.

 

Do you personally think they moved Moncada to 3B after some reps there as soon as they felt he was ML ready, or did they tweek the timetable just enough so he'd be called up September 1st after having what they determined was all the time he needed at 3B to be "ready". We're only talking days and weeks here, so being "ready" is probably not something that happens or is determined from one minute to the next. It's not like they say, "Oh, he went 5 for 5 today- he's ready now!"

 

The word "ready" is so ambiguous due to the many levels of "ready" and the team "needs" factor that may over-rule "readiness".

 

I actually was not expecting Moncada to play 3B with Boston this year, even after he started taking reps at 3B shortly after I suggested they do it. I thought the winter league and spring training was not even enough for him to be completely ready to play 3B any significant amount of time. His youth and lack of experience at high level baseball makes him playing 3B after just 10 games a little different than Bogey in 2013. Maybe he's more of an "athlete" than Bogey, but Bogey was a SS and had more time on the Sox farm than Moncada. Maybe I'm discounting Cuban baseball too much.

 

I guess my real question is that if we knew he was coming up 9/1 to play 3B, I think they should have moved him to 3B earlier than 10 days, despite the protocol. We're not even sure he will play 3B a lot, but it looks like he will. I'm not pretending to know more than the Sox. maybe they watched him at 3B and said, "Wow, he is ready!" If that's the case, I have no issues.

 

 

This is a great point because I don't think you ever really truly know when a guy is ready. It's not like the Sox were sitting around back in July saying on September 2nd Moncada will be ready.

[moonslav59]

This is a great point because I don't think you ever really truly know when a guy is ready. It's not like the Sox were sitting around back in July saying on September 2nd Moncada will be ready.

 

...and on the flip side, it's not like they woke up a couple mornings ago and thought suddenly, he's ready...ummm, do you think he's good enough to play 3B now?

[Behindenemylines]

I get it too, and it does make total sense.

 

Moncada's situation was unique in several ways.

 

1) Cuban ball players are unique by themselves. Several make the jump to the bigs after very short stints on the farm.

2) He had no "true position" to begin with.

3) His offense, particularly against RHPs was probably close to Ml ready near day one in the system.

 

I think the Sox knew what they were doing, but am worried about his lack of time at 3B, if they plan to throw him in there now. I'm not saying they screwed up. I'm just saying 10 games does not feel right to me.

 

 

Moncada did play some 3B in Cuba. With extended roosters the Sox can replace him in the late innings. I think they don't put him there if they think he wasn't ready. He athletic and has a good arm.

[a700hitter]

Moncada did play some 3B in Cuba. With extended roosters the Sox can replace him in the late innings. I think they don't put him there if they think he wasn't ready. He athletic and has a good arm.

He showed a strong arm last night.

[vjcsmoke]

Yep, Moncada showed off a monster arm last night. Makes those throws across the diamond with ease. In hindsight, putting him at second would almost be a waste of that arm.

Yoan has got a lot of potential to unlock. His athleticism will help on that hot corner.

Red Sox have one hell of an enviable infield right now -- Moncada-Bogaerts-Pedroia-Ramirez.

It's hard to name an infield that is better overall offensively. And the defense looks to be pretty decent as well.

[a700hitter]

After seeing his arm last night, I had to wonder why is was a second baseman. That is not a second baseman's arm. It is a SS/RF/3B arm.

[cp176]

After seeing his arm last night, I had to wonder why is was a second baseman. That is not a second baseman's arm. It is a SS/RF/3B arm.

 

Don't you start sounding off about player development here. LOL!!! I think that it really just tends to show that they really had no idea what positions he would be best at moving forward. The good news is that he just might be athlete enough to play wherever they wind up needing him. To his credit - very importantly - he seems to want to do whatever it is that people ask of him. I don't see any whining in the future coming from him.

[a700hitter]

Don't you start sounding off about player development here. LOL!!! I think that it really just tends to show that they really had no idea what positions he would be best at moving forward. The good news is that he just might be athlete enough to play wherever they wind up needing him. To his credit - very importantly - he seems to want to do whatever it is that people ask of him. I don't see any whining in the future coming from him.

I am really surprised that he was a second base man in Cuba. He must have been blocked at SS and 3B.

[cp176]

I am really surprised that he was a second base man in Cuba. He must have been blocked at SS and 3B.

 

Maybe we need to go down there and find out who in the hell was blocking him down there. I think that they could play for me if they were that good!

[Hugh2]

Moncada was 17 when he was playing down there. A teenager doesn't just walk onto a team and take a guys job, so it was probably some no name but more polished player ahead of him. Also I think it's worth noting we will never know where Moncada would have ended up had he stayed in Cuba.

[sk7326]

After seeing his arm last night, I had to wonder why is was a second baseman. That is not a second baseman's arm. It is a SS/RF/3B arm.

 

He started as a SS I think ... 2B was just a good way to ease him in given just how little baseball he had played, and all those things he had to deal with as a 19 year old which normal prospects don't.

[Hugh2]

Yoan Moncada played strictly 2nd for the Elefantes de Cienfuegos in 2012 and 2013 according to baseball reference.

[moonslav59]

Yoan Moncada played strictly 2nd for the Elefantes de Cienfuegos in 2012 and 2013 according to baseball reference.

 

That was age 17 & 18.

 

I read somewhere he played 3B at age 16. What was that? Semi-pro ball or something?