A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

I actually think he will bounce back. The year-1 swoon for FA's with big contracts happens a lot.

 

You know else happens a lot, after the first year struggles?

 

More struggles, mediocrity, injury or worse.\

 

Just look at the list a couple pages back.

[User Name]

But that's comparing apples to oranges. He did not have full autonomy with the Sox, as he now does with the Cubs.

[User Name]

You know else happens a lot, after the first year struggles?

 

More struggles, mediocrity, injury or worse.\

 

Just look at the list a couple pages back.

 

Carlos Beltran:

 

Year 1 of his Mets contract: .744 OPS.

 

Rest of his Mets contract: .896 OPS.

 

There are a lot of examples of guys with Heyward's profile (younger guy, athletic, good skillset) struggling to adapt the first year of his contract, then turning it around.

[mvp 78]

Carlos Beltran:

 

Year 1 of his Mets contract: .744 OPS.

 

Rest of his Mets contract: .896 OPS.

 

There are a lot of examples of guys with Heyward's profile (younger guy, athletic, good skillset) struggling to adapt the first year of his contract, then turning it around.

 

Heyward doesn't have the pedigree that Beltran did. C'mon...

[sk7326]

Heyward doesn't have the pedigree that Beltran did. C'mon...

 

just turned 27 one of the best outfielders in the league the last 3 or 4 seasons ... betting on this year being a fluke seems reasonable

[mvp 78]

Beltran was coming off 4 straight seasons of an OPS over .800. Heyward hasn't been over .800 since 2012.

 

The Cubs paid for his defense AND expected his bat to revert to 2012 levels. His contract just isn't worth it.

[mvp 78]

just turned 27 one of the best outfielders in the league the last 3 or 4 seasons ... betting on this year being a fluke seems reasonable

 

How many are you including in your "best" list?

[mvp 78]

He's probably in the top 25 OFers in the league. I doubt he'd crack a top 20 though.

[sk7326]

Beltran was coming off 4 straight seasons of an OPS over .800. Heyward hasn't been over .800 since 2012.

 

The Cubs paid for his defense AND expected his bat to revert to 2012 levels. His contract just isn't worth it.

 

For what he had produced and his age, the deal was kind of a bargain - he has been awful this season. What is funny about Heyward is that his defense and on-base skills have been able to justify his contract while the power has been up and down. (his OPS has had more O, so his overall impact has been solidly above average)

 

You could make some interesting comparisons here with say JD Drew.

[sk7326]

He's probably in the top 25 OFers in the league. I doubt he'd crack a top 20 though.

 

Top 10ish when the total package is included

[mvp 78]

For what he had produced and his age, the deal was kind of a bargain - he has been awful this season. What is funny about Heyward is that his defense and on-base skills have been able to justify his contract while the power has been up and down. (his OPS has had more O, so his overall impact has been solidly above average)

 

You could make some interesting comparisons here with say JD Drew.

 

JD Drew with a worse bat, but better glove? I'd buy that.

 

Heyward's career OBP is about 35 points less than Drew's and that includes the nightmare 2011 season for JD.

[User Name]

But Heyward had something Drew and Beltran did not: Upside. He's still pretty young.

[mvp 78]

But Heyward had something Drew and Beltran did not: Upside. He's still pretty young.

 

He was 27 when he signed that contract. Let's not pretend that he was being put out to pasture.

[mvp 78]

His OPS for that horrible year was still better than 3 years that Heyward has had.

[sk7326]

But Heyward had something Drew and Beltran did not: Upside. He's still pretty young.

 

The comparison with Drew was more to the point of a guy who is so supernaturally talented that he will always be seen negatively ... even though the guy in front of them is pretty damn good.

 

Drew was a better hitter, although both had good on-base skills, especially with respect to league averages. And Heyward is a superb defensive player - how much that goes into the soup is a fair question. Getting him for 23M (and really it might be a de facto 3 year deal with options and such) per season is a good value. His bat has been remarkably bad this season.

[moonslav59]

But that's comparing apples to oranges. He did not have full autonomy with the Sox, as he now does with the Cubs.

 

Good point, but people are giving him credit for the rings too.

[moonslav59]

Pardon the long list, but here are two lists:

 

First is the biggest FA signings since 2011.

 

Second are the biggest contracts of all time.

 

How many of these guys have been unqualified successes?

 

How many have done a decent to good job?

 

Now, combine the two totals and see if it comes to over 33% or 50%.

 

 

Recent Top Free Agent Signings:

2011:

$142M/7 Carl Crawford

$126M/7 Jayson Werth

$120M/5 Cliff Lee

$80M/5 Adrian Beltre

$56M/4 Adam Dunn

2012:

$247M/10 Albert Pujols

$219M/9 Prince Fielder

$122M/5 CC Sabathia

$106M/6 Jose Reyes

2013:

$147M/6 Zack Greinke (with opt-out)

$125M/5 Josh Hamilton

2014:

$240M/10 Robinson Cano

$155M/7 Masahiro Tanaka

$153M/7 Jacoby Ellsbury

$130M/7 Shin-Soo Choo

$90M/5 Hunter Pence

$85M/5 Brian McCann

2015:

$210M/7 Max Scherzer

$155M/6 Jon Lester

$95M/5 Pablo Sandoval

$88M/4 Hanley Ramirez

2016:

$217M/7 David Price (with opt-out)

$207M/6 Zack Greinke

$161M/7 Chris Davis

$133M/6 Justin Upton (with opt-out)

$130M/6 Johnny Cueto (with opt-out)

$110M/5 Jordan Zimmerman

$90M/5 Jeff Samardzija

 

Largest Contracts (FA or other)

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)

2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)

5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)

… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)

7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)

9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)

10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)

11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)

16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)

20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)

21. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

. . . Chris Davis, $161,000,000 (2016-22)

23. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)

25. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

26. Masahiro Tanaka, $155,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Jon Lester, $155,000,000 (2015-20)

28. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

29. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20)

30. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

31. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)

32. Mike Trout, $144,500,000 (2015-20)

33. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18)

34. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)

35. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)

36. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)

37. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)

38. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

39. Freddie Freeman, $135,000,000 (2014-21)

40. Justin Upton, $132,750,000 (2016-21)

41. Shin-Soo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Johnny Cueto, $130,000,000 (2016-21)

43. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)

44. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)

47. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)

. . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)

49. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16)

50. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)

51. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)

55. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)

56. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)

57. Jordan Zimmermann, $110,000,000 (2016-20)

. . . Dustin Pedroia, $110,000,000 (2014-21)

59. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17)

60. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)

. . . Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20)

62. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)

. . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)

. . . Ryan Zimmerman, $100,000,000 (2014-19)

. . . Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22)

. . . Kyle Seager, $100,000,000 (2015-21)

67. Adam Wainwright, $97,500,000 (2014-18)

68. Pablo Sandoval, $95,000,000 (2015-19)

69. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)

70. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)

71. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)

. . . Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)

. . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

. . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Hunter Pence, $90,000,000 (2014-18)

. . . Jeff Samardzija, $90,000,000 (2016-20)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Without doing any research, I'll rank these deals on my gut feeling.

 

Recent Top Free Agent Signings:

2011:

$142M/7 Carl Crawford F

$126M/7 Jayson Werth C

$120M/5 Cliff Lee D

$80M/5 Adrian Beltre A-

$56M/4 Adam Dunn D-

2012:

$247M/10 Albert Pujols D-

$219M/9 Prince Fielder D+

$122M/5 CC Sabathia D+

$106M/6 Jose Reyes D-

2013:

$147M/6 Zack Greinke (with opt-out) A

$125M/5 Josh Hamilton F--

2014:

$240M/10 Robinson Cano B so far

$155M/7 Masahiro Tanaka D, do to injury- so far

$153M/7 Jacoby Ellsbury D, so far

$130M/7 Shin-Soo Choo D+, so far

$90M/5 Hunter Pence C, due to injuries, so far

$85M/5 Brian McCann C

2015:

$210M/7 Max Scherzer A, so far

$155M/6 Jon Lester A, so far

$95M/5 Pablo Sandoval F- so far

$88M/4 Hanley Ramirez D+ so far\\

 

 

2016: too early to tell

$217M/7 David Price (with opt-out)

$207M/6 Zack Greinke

$161M/7 Chris Davis

$133M/6 Justin Upton (with opt-out)

$130M/6 Johnny Cueto (with opt-out)

$110M/5 Jordan Zimmerman

$90M/5 Jeff Samardzija

[mvp 78]

Largest Contracts (FA or other)

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) BAD, BUT WON A WS, SO NOT HORRIBLE

3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) GOOD

4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) BAD AND WAS DUMB AT THE TIME

… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) SEEMS LIKE A FAIR DEAL

7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) GOOD

8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) GOOD PENDING HIS NEW INJURY

10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) BAD

11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) GOOD

12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) GOOD CONSIDERING ALL THAT HE BROUGHT TO THE TABLE

14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) BLAH - INJURIES

. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23) HORRIBLE, WORST CONTRACT OF ALL TIME

16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) POOR, BUT HELPED WIN A WS

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) HE'S A ROLLERCOASTER, BUT ONE MOST TEAMS WOULD TAKE A CHANCE ON

18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) GOOD

. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) GOOD

21. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15) GOOD

. . . Chris Davis, $161,000,000 (2016-22) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

23. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08) GOOD

. . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19) NOPE

25. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20) OK

26. Masahiro Tanaka, $155,000,000 (2014-20) GOOD

. . . Jon Lester, $155,000,000 (2015-20) GOOD

28. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18) HIS POWER IS WAY DOWN, PROBABLY AN OVERPAY

29. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20) LOL

30. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15) GOOD

31. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18) GOOD

32. Mike Trout, $144,500,000 (2015-20) GOOD

33. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18) GOOD

34. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17) LOL

35. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11) GOOD

36. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20) COULD BE WORSE

37. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13) YUCK, BUT WAS A GREAT PITCHER WHEN SIGNED

38. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14) NOPE, DID ANYONE LIKE THIS DEAL

39. Freddie Freeman, $135,000,000 (2014-21) OK FOR NOW

40. Justin Upton, $132,750,000 (2016-21) NAH

41. Shin-Soo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20) NAH

. . . Johnny Cueto, $130,000,000 (2016-21) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

43. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17) INJURIES

44. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13) YUCK

. . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14) GROSS

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17) ROUGH FIRST FEW YEARS, CLOSE TO EARNING IT NOW

47. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16) NOPE

. . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17) NOPE

49. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16) NAH

50. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08) SAD

51. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08) OK

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16) OK

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15) INJURIES

. . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22) MAYBE OK

55. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11) GOOD

56. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08) GOOD FOR WHAT HE BROUGHT TO THE TABLE

57. Jordan Zimmermann, $110,000,000 (2016-20) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

. . . Dustin Pedroia, $110,000,000 (2014-21) WASTE OF MONEY IMO

59. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17) NO

60. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005) GOOD

. . . Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20) NO

62. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10) GOOD

. . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12) NO

. . . Ryan Zimmerman, $100,000,000 (2014-19) OK

. . . Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22) GOOD

. . . Kyle Seager, $100,000,000 (2015-21) GOOD SO FAR

67. Adam Wainwright, $97,500,000 (2014-18) GOOD

68. Pablo Sandoval, $95,000,000 (2015-19) SORRY KIMMI

69. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12) NO

70. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005) GOOD

71. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06) GOOD

. . . Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06) GOOD

. . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10) GOOD

. . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12) OK

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12) GOOD

. . . Hunter Pence, $90,000,000 (2014-18) GOOD

. . . Jeff Samardzija, $90,000,000 (2016-20) REMAINS TO BE SEEN

 

See above.

[harmony]

Where is Nelson Cruz, whose contract resembles Adam Dunn's?

[moonslav59]

Where is Nelson Cruz, whose contract resembles Adam Dunn's?

 

I meant to only include the larger and long signings, but I forgot to erase Dunns' when I changed the criteria to $80M early and $85M later.

[moonslav59]

The big SP'er signings this past winter:

 

Price 9-8 4.34 ERA/1.28 WHIP (team:11-13)

 

Greinke 10-3 3.62 ERA/1.162 WHIP (team: 12-5)

* Highest ERA since 2011, highest WHIP since 2012 & been on DL

 

Zimmerman 9-5 4.44 ERA/1.305 WHIP (team 10-6)

* Highest ERA since 2010, highest WHIP since 2010 & is on the DL now

 

Cueto 13-3 2.93 ERA/1.075 (team: 18-5)

* 2nd highest ERA since 2010, 2nd highest WHIP since 2012 & no missed starts

 

Samardzija 9-8 4.40 ERA/1.234 WHIP (team 11-11)

* 2nd highest ERA since 2010 and no missed starts.

 

It's early still, but only Cueto has started off strong and stayed healthy.

 

Funny thing, since many said his mechanics begged for an injury. (They still might...)

 

 

[mvp 78]

Cueto also SUCKED in the AL. There's no telling if he'd pitch this well in Boston.

[moonslav59]

Cueto also SUCKED in the AL. There's no telling if he'd pitch this well in Boston.

 

No telling for sure, but he was 14-6 2.59 ERA (.627 OPS) in inter-league games, before struggling last year.

[Nick]

Now we have Benintendi for 6 years of team control.....cheaper to develop talent in house. (but in all honesty, he was a good player coming out of college and we got him because we came in last in 2014)

I don't know about you but he sure looks to be the left fielder for us. Maybe Young can DH a little next year. Get both Hanley and Young against Lefties. Against righties, Shaw can play first and Hanley DH.

Edited August 10, 2016 by Nick

[oldtimer]

The Orioles and Blue Jays both lost yesterday so we move a game closer. There is hope in Mudville.

[sk7326]

The big SP'er signings this past winter:

 

Price 9-8 4.34 ERA/1.28 WHIP (team:11-13)

 

Greinke 10-3 3.62 ERA/1.162 WHIP (team: 12-5)

* Highest ERA since 2011, highest WHIP since 2012 & been on DL

 

Zimmerman 9-5 4.44 ERA/1.305 WHIP (team 10-6)

* Highest ERA since 2010, highest WHIP since 2010 & is on the DL now

 

Cueto 13-3 2.93 ERA/1.075 (team: 18-5)

* 2nd highest ERA since 2010, 2nd highest WHIP since 2012 & no missed starts

 

Samardzija 9-8 4.40 ERA/1.234 WHIP (team 11-11)

* 2nd highest ERA since 2010 and no missed starts.

 

It's early still, but only Cueto has started off strong and stayed healthy.

 

Funny thing, since many said his mechanics begged for an injury. (They still might...)

 

 

 

His form last year in KC did not give any sort of reassurance. I don't blame the Red Sox for not going after him. And in SF he has thrown fewer fastballs and taken advantage of the numerous cavernous parks there are in the NL West. (yes I know Coors and Arizona are more homerun friendly)

 

A flyball pitcher in the AL East is always worrisome

[moonslav59]

His form last year in KC did not give any sort of reassurance. I don't blame the Red Sox for not going after him. And in SF he has thrown fewer fastballs and taken advantage of the numerous cavernous parks there are in the NL West. (yes I know Coors and Arizona are more homerun friendly)

 

A flyball pitcher in the AL East is always worrisome

 

He's got a worse ERA at SD (2 starts there) than overall. He's better in LA (1 start).

 

He has the 5th best ERA- (which takes park size and other factors into consideration) over the last 5 years.

 

Over the past 5 seasons, only 32 pitchers have pitched over 800 IP:

Cueto ranks...

22nd in FB% at 32%

10th best in HR/FB (9.6%)

11th best in GB% (47%)

11th best in K-BB% at 16%

5th best in WHIP at 1.08

2nd best in lowest hard balls hit% at 26%.

 

I had worries about his mechanics and injury projection, but he has not been known as a FB pitcher.

[oldtimer]

Last night's Yankee game turned into a disaster for the relief pitching. Giving up a 5 run 7th inning with a succession of pitchers unable to get outs. That's after Kimbrel couldn't find the plate the night before. Can't blame JF for any of that. The outlook can't be considered positive with a breakdown in a key area as we witnessed last night. Funny thing is Abad had good stuff but would use part of the at bat, it only to give up fat pitches instead of staying with his best.

 

The lineup looked interesting with Betts batting third and most of the guys looking good with the exception of Hanley and the 3rd base combo. Hanley is 0 for 9 against the Yankees after coming back from a poor road trip. Shaw was suspect against lefties but Hill was no better so that move didn't work. With so many base runners last night,one hit from that duo would have produced runs. Maybe some move could be made to stop the rally killing there.

 

With Ortiz getting a contusion on his shin, Bogaerts getting plunked on the elbow with a fast ball and Betts having a sore calf muscle the woes continued.

 

Hard game to watch! No championship quality ball.

[moonslav59]

Last night's Yankee game turned into a disaster for the relief pitching. Giving up a 5 run 7th inning with a succession of pitchers unable to get outs. That's after Kimbrel couldn't find the plate the night before. Can't blame JF for any of that. The outlook can't be considered positive with a breakdown in a key area as we witnessed last night. Funny thing is Abad had good stuff but would use part of the at bat, it only to give up fat pitches instead of staying with his best.

 

The lineup looked interesting with Betts batting third and most of the guys looking good with the exception of Hanley and the 3rd base combo. Hanley is 0 for 9 against the Yankees after coming back from a poor road trip. Shaw was suspect against lefties but Hill was no better so that move didn't work. With so many base runners last night,one hit from that duo would have produced runs. Maybe some move could be made to stop the rally killing there.

 

With Ortiz getting a contusion on his shin, Bogaerts getting plunked on the elbow with a fast ball and Betts having a sore calf muscle the woes continued.

 

Hard game to watch! No championship quality ball.

 

Agreed, but it's just 1 of 162 games, and at least our offense didn't look totally dead- like on the road.