A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

Orioles lose. Hard to believe this team's still within striking distance considering how bad they have looked at times.

 

Imagine how ballistic Sox fans would be going right now, if you told them their top 6 SP'ers had these numbers:

IP - ERA

144 - 3.50

116 - 4.02

84 -- 6.72

73 -- 5.67

72 -- 5.47

64 -- 6.22

Their 7-9 starters have combined for 54 IP/24 ER (4.00 ERA)

 

Even on offense, they have these issues:

 

1) a .317 OBP from the 1 slot

2) only 2slots with an OPS over .796

3) .675 team OPS since the allstar game

4) massive spli disparity (.801 vs RHP/.695 vs LHP)

5) compare their OPS+ depth vs ours:

 

BAL....................BOS

140 Machado.. 161 Ortiz

121 Alvarez..... 131 Betts

120 Trumbo..... 130 JBJ

107 Schoop..... 119 Bogey

104 Davis........ 108 Pedey

101 Jones....... 105 Shaw

93 Hardy......... 89 Holt

84 Rickard......

77 Wieters

 

Others:

BAL: 130 H-S Kim in 212 PAs, 82 Reimond in 180, 68 Flaherty in 159 & 28 Joseph in 111

 

BOS: 54 Vazquez in 176 PAs, 118 Young in 142, 155 Leon in 121, 16 Hanigan in 102 & 91 Swihart in 74.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Let's compare the Sox OPS+ with Toronto:

 

TOR

161 Donaldson

135 Encarnacion

131 Saunders

111 Bautista

104 Tulowitzki

94 Smoak

84 Martin

81 Pillar

 

Others:

118 Travis (240)

93 Carrera (222)

78 Barney (250)

36 Goines (173)

27 Thole (114)

 

[moonslav59]

WAR

 

POS.. BOS BAL TOR

SP'er 4.9 4.0 4.3

RP'er 1.2 1.5 1.3

.....C 0.6 0.7 0.7

....1B 0.7 1.1 0.3

...2B 1.2 0.8 0.9

...3B 0.7 1.9 1.9

...SS 1.2 0.7 1.0

...LF 0.6 0.4 0.7

...CF 1.2 0.9 0.9

...RF 1.5 0.3 0.9

...DH 1.0 0.6 1.0

 

BAT 8.5 7.4 8.3

PIT 6.1 5.6 5.6

 

 

[moonslav59]

We are now tied with the Tigers for the second WC slot 2.5 games behind BAL & TOR for the 1 slot and the division lead.

 

SEA is 2.5 behind the Sox & Tigers.

HOU is 4.0 behind and the Yanks are hanging tough at 4.5 behind.

CWS & KCR are still slightly alive 7.5 behind.

4 teams are toast.

The NL has 6 teams that are "toast".

That leaves 20 teams still somewhat "in it". Talk about parity.

However, probably only 14-15 teams still have a good shot.

[Oscars]

The sox hitting since the allstar break has been on a downward slide......

[cp176]

Signing Encarnacion will not solve our biggest problem next year.

 

But there are no top of the line starting pitcher in FA market.

But we can't make a trade for top of the line starting pitcher because we want to keep our top prospects and young ML ball players.

So signing Encarnacion will add depth to our offense. We sign him because we can't get 1-3 type pitchers.

 

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Shaw LF Benintendi CF Bradley RF Betts DH Encarnacion.....Offense, check

 

Moon has stated if we can't win this year with Ortiz having a stellar offensive year, what makes us think we can win with Encarnacion? I guess my thought would be that we could be lot worse next year if we don't try to replace Ortiz.

 

What you are saying makes sense to me. I like the thought of having a legit power bat in the middle of the lineup. No one has suggested that signing Encarnarcion should be done at the expense of finding the pitcher (s) we need via trade. I also do not think that there is any way in hell that DD would sign a dh to a 7 year contract. 3/4 at the most or he probably will be playing somewhere else. As an aside, i have faith in our GM. I believe that his moves to date have been justified and prudent. I do not feel as though they have been "panic" moves. Whether they have worked out or not just yet is still be determined but they were made not just to make some sort of splash for just this year. I do't think that he is done. This is going to be an interesting off season.

[Bellhorn04]

Weren't Masterson, Dempster and Victorino exactly the kind of FA signings you're in favor of?

 

No. Masterson was one of MLB's worst pitchers, and $9M was a gross overpay even though it was "mid tier.

 

We were lucky Dempster retired. I'm always against signing #5 SP'ers.

 

Vic was over the hill, showing signs of decline and signed for 3 years. That's not as short term as I want.

 

Beckett was never signed by us as a FA.

 

True, but he was going to be.

 

So I guess what you're saying is, don't sign anybody!

 

Unless, of course, you know you're going to get full value from them.

 

Yes that should work.

 

I wonder why Theo Ben & DD haven't followed that simple rule.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, why don't you give some examples of these 'strategic signings of mid level FAs to short term deals to fill the gaps' that you like. Because all you've done is list signings of all types that you didn't like.

[greenwell]

Totally right, but when are we going to ever stop banging our heads on the wall and repeating history?

 

The answer to our troubles is signing Encarnacion, I'm hearing from many here.

 

Our problem is signing big FAs. The solution to that problem is probably not going to be signing another big FA!

 

Price

 

Pablo

 

HanRam

 

Masterson

 

Dempster

 

Victorino

 

JD Drew

 

Crawford

 

Beckett

 

Lackey

 

How many of these signings have been unqualified successes?

 

How can the solution to this losing pattern be to continue it in hopes we finally get one right?

 

Keep the kids. Try to strategically sign mid level FAs to short term deals to fill the gaps.

 

Forget panning for fool's gold!

 

 

This isn't just a redsox problem. You have to look pretty hard to find good free agent signings by any team, especially big contracts. Maybe we need to redefine what is a success for a free agent signing.

[oldtimer]

The sox hitting since the allstar break has been on a downward slide......

 

Yes, that is true. Why don't you give us your thoughts on why that is the case? What remedial moves would you make to enliven the offense?

 

Yes, and comparing WAR ratings of players doesn't give much insight when teams go into a protracted slump.

[moonslav59]

The sox hitting since the allstar break has been on a downward slide......

 

...as reflected by our 90 point drop in team OPS (.833 to .743).

 

Even so, we still have 9 of our top 11 PA players with a season OPS of over .790. If Young comes back and Leon stays healthy, those two could pass Holt and Vaz in PAs making it 9 of our top 9 with OPS over .790.

 

[moonslav59]

So I guess what you're saying is, don't sign anybody!

 

Unless, of course, you know you're going to get full value from them.

 

Yes that should work.

 

I wonder why Theo Ben & DD haven't followed that simple rule.

 

Well, Theo has at least got off to a good start with the Lester signing. There's still time on the Price signing, and had Young not gotten hurt, he looked to be a good "mid tier" signing by DD.

 

I'm not saying don't sign anybody, but we've really been extremely b ad at it, haven't we?

 

I was against the Price signing, but I felt it was pretty close to a necessary risk. Price did look like the best FA pitcher, in terms of projected performance and age than just about any other FA SP'er in quite a long time. I get why they did it. It's hard to lay blame, especially when you look at the track record of every big signing going back 10 years. A large percentage fail to come close to reaching expectations.

 

It does make me feel like the winning strategy, like in WAR Games, is "not to play the game".

 

We have done a little better with our shorter term $6-13M contracts and re-signings.

 

I'm not sure, if that's the answer, but if you take back every trade and signing we've made since the 2007 Nomar or Beckett?Lowell trade, we'd not only have plenty of budget space going forward, we also have an exciting team stocked with young talent, but light on SP'ing (unless we kept our own talent- Lester).

 

The big moves we've made on SP'ing have most often been to find a 4/5 slot pitcher (P Byrd, Colon, BedardSmoltz, Penny, A Cook, Peavy, Dempster, de la Rosa, Miley & Masterson) with the Dice-K, Lackey and Price signings as our only attempts at finding a 1/2 slot starter.

 

Side note: while doing my research for this post, I found something that surprised me. From 2008 to 2016, which is 8.5 years, there are only 8 Sox SP'ersover 220 IP!

 

1375 Lester

1076 Buchholz

834 Beckett

701 Lackey

563 Wakefield

463 Dice-K

382 Doubront

315 Porcello

(Kelly and Wright are 9-10 with barely over 200 IP with the Sox.)

[moonslav59]

moon, why don't you give some examples of these 'strategic signings of mid level FAs to short term deals to fill the gaps' that you like. Because all you've done is list signings of all types that you didn't like.

 

Here are the few moves I liked at the time:

 

I loved the Uehara trade.

 

I loved the first Uehara signing.

 

I loved the second Uehara signing and felt the overpay was worth it. extension.

 

I loved the original Napoli signing (with bonuses) and re-signing.

 

I loved the ERod trade and had hoped the Lester and Lackey trades would have been geared towards returning top prospects and not ML players, although I had hopes that 5 years of Kelly control would have bested 1 more year of Lackey control on a team seemingly going nowhere the next year.

 

I loved the Cespedes-Porcello trade and extension, because Porcello all of his years of team control fall within his prime years.

 

I loved the Beltre signing and argued we should have re-signed him and traded Youk.

 

I loved the Masterson (and others) for VMart trade (but wanted him at 1B not C).

 

I loved the Cody Ross and Johny Gomes signings.

 

I loved the AGon trade and almost called the exact package it took (I said Kelly, Rizzo and Bowden).

 

I loved the AGon extension thinking he'd hit 50 HRs for us.

 

I loved acquiring Coco Crisp. I thought he'd be great.

 

I loved the Manny signing.

 

I loved having Alex Gonzalez as our SS due to his glove.

 

I liked the RDLR & Webster for Miley trade.

 

I liked the Castillo signing.

 

I liked the Mike Cameron signing.

 

I was okay with the JD Drew signing.

 

Some say the Vic and Dempster signings worked. I was against both. Il iked Vic, but thought he was declining and 3 years was too much.

 

Not all of the deals I liked were "mid tier", and not all of them worked out all that well, but I think thye have worked out better than our big signings.

[moonslav59]

This isn't just a redsox problem. You have to look pretty hard to find good free agent signings by any team, especially big contracts. Maybe we need to redefine what is a success for a free agent signing.

 

Yes, that has been my point all along.

 

People blamed Theo and Ben for missing on big FA signings, when the blame maybe should have been placed not on the miss, but on the swing!

 

If all GMs are who swing end up missing, maybe it's time to stop swinging.

 

If the pressure to sign somebody is placed on the GM, then have some sympathy when they miss, since just about every swing misses the mark.

 

Lowering the standard for a successful signing does what?

 

Even if you lower the standard significantly, how many big signings on the list I provided on the previous page have even done okay/decent?

 

Was the Albert Pujols signing even close to being good? He hasn't done horribly bad.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I still think Theo is pretty good in spite of the failed signings. I think Theo even said himself that if you are 55% successful on FA signings you're doing well.

[moonslav59]

Yes, that is true. Why don't you give us your thoughts on why that is the case? What remedial moves would you make to enliven the offense?

 

Yes, and comparing WAR ratings of players doesn't give much insight when teams go into a protracted slump.

 

I'll take a stab at answering.

 

One reason is the west coast swing. We always struggle in those western big parks.

 

One reason is 14 road games vs 9 home games. (We scored 59 runs in those 9 home games. We scored 49 runs in 14 road games, including 9 in one game, so 40 runs in the other 13 road games.) Our away OPS is 100 points lower than our Home OPS.

 

Another reason is multiple slumps:

2nd half OPS

.642 Papi (83 PAs)

.699 Holt (67)

.647 Hill (51)

.564 Brentz (24)

.281 Hanigan (22)

 

Even these guys have slipped:

.736 Bogey (104)

.743 JBJ (93)

.762 HanRam (76)

 

Only 4 guys have done well:

1.025 Betts

.806 Pedey

.805 Shaw

.796 Leon

(.769 Beni in just 13 PAs)

 

[moonslav59]

I still think Theo is pretty good in spite of the failed signings. I think Theo even said himself that if you are 55% successful on FA signings you're doing well.

 

55% of big signings would blow away the league average.

 

If you look at the totality of Theo's signings and trades since the Nomar trade or the Beckett/Lowell trade, you might be surprised at how the record was not good.

 

He did very well with drafting and international signings, especially early on.

[Bellhorn04]

55% of big signings would blow away the league average.

 

If you look at the totality of Theo's signings and trades since the Nomar trade or the Beckett/Lowell trade, you might be surprised at how the record was not good.

 

He did very well with drafting and international signings, especially early on.

 

His record on trades and FA's with the Cubs has been outstanding:

 

Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Rizzo, Zobrist, Fowler.

 

Heyward has been a bust so far but it's early.

[User Name]

His record on trades and FA's with the Cubs has been outstanding:

 

Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Rizzo, Zobrist, Fowler.

 

Heyward has been a bust so far but it's early.

 

Montero, Russell, Hammel.

[mvp 78]

Edwin Jackson

[User Name]

Lol!

[Bellhorn04]

Definitely better than 55%.

[User Name]

I'd say his success rate is sky-high since he got to the Cubs. Can't really find any other straight-up blunder than Edwin Jackson.

[mvp 78]

I'd say his success rate is sky-high since he got to the Cubs. Can't really find any other straight-up blunder than Edwin Jackson.

 

Jason Heyward is pretty bad IMO.

 

Theo's done a great job though. He should still be the GM here.

[StephenCurry30]

Orioles got hosed very badly in that Arrieta trade. Yikes.

[S5Dewey]

 

It does make me feel like the winning strategy, like in WAR Games, is "not to play the game".

I'm beginning to see Free Agent signings in the same light as sitting down at the blackjack table. Most people who are serious about it (and are ALLOWED to sit at the table) think they know what they're doing. There's a word for those people and it's "losers". Those who win do their winning in spite of their system.

 

At the same time, and in defense of GM's, it's easy to see how tempting it is to sit at the table because one BIG win can offset several smaller losses. The problem for the GM's is that some GM's keep raising the stakes and some other GM's aren't willing to walk away from the table.

 

Free Agency is the best thing to ever happen to the MLBPA. The players have GM's bidding against one another with little-to-no fiscal responsibility. The only way I could enjoy this more would be if I didn't know I was footing the bill for their largess.

[User Name]

Jason Heyward is pretty bad IMO.

 

Theo's done a great job though. He should still be the GM here.

 

Year one of a very long contract.

[mvp 78]

Year one of a very long contract.

 

Yup. What a disaster!

[User Name]

Yup. What a disaster!

 

I actually think he will bounce back. The year-1 swoon for FA's with big contracts happens a lot.

[moonslav59]

His record on trades and FA's with the Cubs has been outstanding:

 

Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Rizzo, Zobrist, Fowler.

 

Heyward has been a bust so far but it's early.

 

Yes, he has blown away the other GM in big FA signings and trades since joinging the Cubs, but if you combined his Sox record, at least since 2007, I bet his o verall percentage is below 55%/