A Realistic View at 2016

[greenwell]

It's not missing the point of the post I was responding to.

 

When you said "like I said earlier" I thought you were elaborating on your reply to my post earlier, which I didn't respond to at the time because it did not even come close to addressing what I said.

[moonslav59]

And Scherzer has pitched very well in Years 1 and 2 of his deal...as has Lester.

 

Had we signed Scherzer and/or Lester instead of Pablo, HanRam and Masterson, we'd be way way better off, but it's still like playing the lottery.

 

I think the idea at the time was that with so many pitchers coming available the next winter, we'd "solve" our hitting problems last winter and pitching problems this past winter. The theory was not unsound. The execution was (so far).

 

If we DFA Pablo next winter or spring and relegate him to Castillo and Craig status, we can avoid luxury tax issues, but Henry is still left holding the money bag. The amount we will be paying those three will be way more than any tax might have been otherwise.

 

The fact is, way too many big FA signings totally fail or disappoint the team to some extent. I wish I saved my research on big signings over the past 10-15 years. As I remember, only 2-3 where unqualified successes from the team standpoint. A few more were okay or not bad, but the vast majority were failures or gross failures.

 

Here's the list of the highest paid players of all time. Some are not FA signings, and some were long ago signings that the money amount should be pro-rated to modern money. See for yourself how many have failed:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

When you said "like I said earlier" I thought you were elaborating on your reply to my post earlier, which I didn't respond to at the time because it did not even come close to addressing what I said.

 

I agree with you that the benefits of the opt-out all rest with the player. My only point to Dewey is that there is a possible scenario where the Red Sox could essentially 'get lucky' and have the opt-out work in their favor, but all things being equal, they would be much better off without the opt-out.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you that the benefits of the opt-out all rest with the player. My only point to Dewey is that there is a possible scenario where the Red Sox could essentially 'get lucky' and have the opt-out work in their favor, but all things being equal, they would be much better off without the opt-out.

 

I agree. Even if he pitches like Cy Young the next 2.5 years, we may still be better off, if he opts out. I get that point and concur.

 

The massive downside is what happens if he sucks.

[greenwell]

I agree with you that the benefits of the opt-out all rest with the player. My only point to Dewey is that there is a possible scenario where the Red Sox could essentially 'get lucky' and have the opt-out work in their favor, but all things being equal, they would be much better off without the opt-out.

 

Thanks for clearing that up. I had been listening to people say the opt out clause was good thing for 8 months and couldn't understand it.

I do agree with you and Moon in that if he does opt-out it might not be a bad thing.

[S5Dewey]

There is a fairly obvious scenario where the Sox win:

 

Price pitches well from here to end of Year 3, opts out, signs elsewhere for big money, then flops. We therefore get 3 good years and someone else pays the freight on the bad years.

 

Like I said earlier, just look at what happened on the opt-out with Sabathia. The Yanks would have been better off letting him exercise it - which he would have if they didn't bend over and give him a further 2 years.

 

Sure, but with all the scenarios there are yours is the only one that works out for the Sox. It's like trying to draw to an inside straight. (Well, it's not quite that bad, but you see what I mean. ) Boston is taking on all the risk here hoping that Price pitches well for three years and flops in the fourth. What kind of odds would 'Vegas give on exactly that happening?

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, but with all the scenarios there are yours is the only one that works out for the Sox. It's like trying to draw to an inside straight. (Well, it's not quite that bad, but you see what I mean. ) Boston is taking on all the risk here hoping that Price pitches well for three years and flops in the fourth. What kind of odds would 'Vegas give on exactly that happening?

 

It happened with Sabathia. It might also be happening with Greinke. But we're certainly not off to a promising start with Price.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping Price does not take as long as Beckett to "adjust".

[mvp 78]

I'm hoping Price does not take as long as Beckett to "adjust".

 

What one year?

[moonslav59]

What one year?

 

Yes, the Papi window closes soon, so he better get his s*** together real soon. He could pitch great next year, but the loss of Papi might cancel it out.

[mvp 78]

This is why Ben should've grabbed a starter last offseason, honestly.

[Wade Boggs]

They are 11-13 in Price starts. Not all his doing. His ERA, I think or pretty close to it is 4.64. He's giving up a ton of hits. If the inconsistency of his starts keep up, i can't see them getting into the playoffs. They spent wasted money on Panda, Craig, ( through a bad trade) , Castillo. They can't afford to have money go into the tank on Price. If Price pitched down the stretch like he did for the jays last year, they be ahead in the division. That is the Price they thought they where going to get. If he doesn't pitch well in year 2 it will be ten times worse than the Carl Crawford contract.

[moonslav59]

This is why Ben should've grabbed a starter last offseason, honestly.

 

You mean "another one" besides Price, and I totally agree.

 

We had too much mediocrity with hopes filling out the 2-5 slots.

 

We came out well with just 2 of them: Porcello and Wright. ERod is showing hope.

 

Had we acquired another solid SP'er, and I don't mean a 5 slot guy like the Dempster and Masterson signings tried to address, but a real dependable 2/3 slot guy, we'd be a lot better off right now. We wouldn't have had give up Espi to roll the dice on Pomeranz. We wouldn't have had a 7.00+ ERS from our 5 slot for much of 2016. We wouldn't even know who O'Sullivan is!

 

Not surprisingly, I actually think we got lucky that 2 of the 8 guys (Porcello, ERod, Buch, Kelly, Wright, Owens, Johnson, Elias) we had fighting for the 2-5 slots have done as well as they have!

 

We'd be in last place had Wright sucked, or Porcello pitched like last year. Those aren't two big what ifs.

 

Now, where are we? There's little hope of finding a FA SP'er next winter. We've exhausted our top prospect depth by trading away 3 top 90 prospects in Margot, Espinoza and Guerra for a high-priced closer (Kimbrel) and a possible flash-in-the-pan SP'er (Pomeranz). We can't aford to trade Beni or Moncada, and I doubt we can get what we need by offering Swihart, Devers, Kopech and Basabe.

 

We have to make up for Papi's retirement on top of taking care of our staff this winter.

 

I'm trying to be optimistic, but it's getting harder with every Price start.

 

 

[moonslav59]

They are 11-13 in Price starts. Not all his doing. His ERA, I think or pretty close to it is 4.64. He's giving up a ton of hits. If the inconsistency of his starts keep up, i can't see them getting into the playoffs. They spent wasted money on Panda, Craig, ( through a bad trade) , Castillo. They can't afford to have money go into the tank on Price. If Price pitched down the stretch like he did for the jays last year, they be ahead in the division. That is the Price they thought they where going to get. If he doesn't pitch well in year 2 it will be ten times worse than the Carl Crawford contract.

 

Totally right, but when are we going to ever stop banging our heads on the wall and repeating history?

 

The answer to our troubles is signing Encarnacion, I'm hearing from many here.

 

Our problem is signing big FAs. The solution to that problem is probably not going to be signing another big FA!

 

Price

 

Pablo

 

HanRam

 

Masterson

 

Dempster

 

Victorino

 

JD Drew

 

Crawford

 

Beckett

 

Lackey

 

How many of these signings have been unqualified successes?

 

How can the solution to this losing pattern be to continue it in hopes we finally get one right?

 

Keep the kids. Try to strategically sign mid level FAs to short term deals to fill the gaps.

 

Forget panning for fool's gold!

 

[cp176]

I have heard no one suggest that signing Encarnarcion is the answer any "troubles". It would help us for sure - but the answer to whatever "troubles" you might think that we have going forward? No one at all has suggested that. Why say that? It is really enough simply to say that you would not like to see Encarnarcion signed and that you are not a fan of long term contracts.

[Bellhorn04]

Totally right, but when are we going to ever stop banging our heads on the wall and repeating history?

 

The answer to our troubles is signing Encarnacion, I'm hearing from many here.

 

Our problem is signing big FAs. The solution to that problem is probably not going to be signing another big FA!

 

Price

 

Pablo

 

HanRam

 

Masterson

 

Dempster

 

Victorino

 

JD Drew

 

Crawford

 

Beckett

 

Lackey

 

How many of these signings have been unqualified successes?

 

How can the solution to this losing pattern be to continue it in hopes we finally get one right?

 

Keep the kids. Try to strategically sign mid level FAs to short term deals to fill the gaps.

 

Forget panning for fool's gold!

 

 

Weren't Masterson, Dempster and Victorino exactly the kind of FA signings you're in favor of?

 

Beckett was never signed by us as a FA.

[Nick]

Signing Encarnacion will not solve our biggest problem next year.

 

But there are no top of the line starting pitcher in FA market.

But we can't make a trade for top of the line starting pitcher because we want to keep our top prospects and young ML ball players.

So signing Encarnacion will add depth to our offense. We sign him because we can't get 1-3 type pitchers.

 

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Shaw LF Benintendi CF Bradley RF Betts DH Encarnacion.....Offense, check

 

Moon has stated if we can't win this year with Ortiz having a stellar offensive year, what makes us think we can win with Encarnacion? I guess my thought would be that we could be lot worse next year if we don't try to replace Ortiz.

Edited August 9, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I have heard no one suggest that signing Encarnarcion is the answer any "troubles". It would help us for sure - but the answer to whatever "troubles" you might think that we have going forward? No one at all has suggested that. Why say that? It is really enough simply to say that you would not like to see Encarnarcion signed and that you are not a fan of long term contracts.

 

You're right; nobody has said Encarnacion was the sole answer to our troubles. That was hyperbole.

 

Maybe I could have been more brief, but whenever I try to be overly simple, i get misunderstood or misinterpreted. I think that was one of my better posts.

 

[S5Dewey]

Here's the problem with signing or not signing the high priced FA's. The FO has dual goals. Goal #1 is to make money and goal #2 is to win. As a short term solution signing the FA's solves goal #1. If the fans think the Sox are going to be winners they'll come to the park and spend the money. However, it may not be a good long term solution because if these FA's don't play up to their contracts the FO is stuck with those contracts - and as Moon has pointed out, most FA's don't.

 

OTOH, if they don't sign the FA's much of the fan base will think the Sox aren't trying to win and they'll stop showing up at the park, especially if the team gets off to a slow start. Which costs the organization a lot of money. Right now the FO is trying to lure fans in after two straight last place finishes by not raising ticket prices and making promises that the team will be better.

 

It's still working, but for how long?

 

Those two goals aren't mutually exclusive. There's more money in winning than there is in losing, by far.

 

BTW, watching the Olympics & the men's 100M backstroke. A great quote from one of the announcers after Murphy won the gold and the US won the gold for the sixth consecutive time. "Welcome to the club my friends''......... for the show that never ends!

 

GO USA!

Edited August 9, 2016 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Weren't Masterson, Dempster and Victorino exactly the kind of FA signings you're in favor of?

 

No. Masterson was one of MLB's worst pitchers, and $9M was a gross overpay even though it was "mid tier.

 

We were lucky Dempster retired. I'm always against signing #5 SP'ers.

 

Vic was over the hill, showing signs of decline and signed for 3 years. That's not as short term as I want.

 

Beckett was never signed by us as a FA.

 

True, but he was going to be.

[moonslav59]

Signing Encarnacion will not solve our biggest problem next year.

 

But there are no top of the line starting pitcher in FA market.

But we can't make a trade for top of the line starting pitcher because we want to keep our top prospects and young ML ball players.

So signing Encarnacion will add depth to our offense. We sign him because we can't get 1-3 type pitchers.

 

C Sandy 1B Hanley 2B Pedey SS Xander 3B Shaw LF Benintendi CF Bradley RF Betts DH Encarnacion.....Offense, check

 

Moon has stated if we can't win this year with Ortiz having a stellar offensive year, what makes us think we can win with Encarnacion? I guess my thought would be that we could be lot worse next year if we don't try to replace Ortiz.

 

Encarnacion is not going to meekly sign for 3 years. He's going to want 6 or 7 and probably get 7 from some desperate GM.

 

I hope it's not DD.

 

[moonslav59]

Moon has stated if we can't win this year with Ortiz having a stellar offensive year, what makes us think we can win with Encarnacion?

 

We could still win this year though...with Papi.

[moonslav59]

Here's the problem with signing or not signing the high priced FA's. The FO has dual goals. Goal #1 is to make money and goal #2 is to win. As a short term solution signing the FA's solves goal #1. If the fans think the Sox are going to be winners they'll come to the park and spend the money. However, it may not be a good long term solution because if these FA's don't play up to their contracts the FO is stuck with those contracts - and as Moon has pointed out, most FA's don't.

 

OTOH, if they don't sign the FA's much of the fan base will think the Sox aren't trying to win and they'll stop showing up at the park, especially if the team gets off to a slow start. Which costs the organization a lot of money. Right now the FO is trying to lure fans in after two straight last place finishes by not raising ticket prices and making promises that the team will be better.

 

Fans seem to love coming to see Betts, Bogey and JBJ.

 

They aren't buying tickets to see HanRam and Pablo. Soon, they'll avoid Price starts.

 

We can win and draw fans with some of the guys like Moncada, Beni, Devers, Kopech, Margot, Espi and others becoming the next Betts and Bogey.

[S5Dewey]

The fact that Dempster retired has nothing to do with his performance in 2013. While I know you don't like signing #5's this #5 was exactly what the team needed. He gave us almost 6 innings per start with an ERA

 

If you want to say that at 37 years old he probably wasn't going to be any better in 2014 I'll agree so in that regard we were "lucky" he retired, but IMO he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Masterson.

 

Ryan Dempster will never buy beer in the same bar I'm in - but what are the chances of our being in the same bar?

[S5Dewey]

 

We can win and draw fans with some of the guys like Moncada, Beni, Devers, Kopech, Margot, Espi and others becoming the next Betts and Bogey.[/b]

 

Not without better pitching than we've gotten this year.

 

At the end of the day it's the W's that put the fannies in the seats.

[moonslav59]

The fact that Dempster retired has nothing to do with his performance in 2013. While I know you don't like signing #5's this #5 was exactly what the team needed. He gave us almost 6 innings per start with an ERA

 

If you want to say that at 37 years old he probably wasn't going to be any better in 2014 I'll agree so in that regard we were "lucky" he retired, but IMO he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Masterson.

 

Ryan Dempster will never buy beer in the same bar I'm in - but what are the chances of our being in the same bar?

 

We were lucky he retired, because it saved us $13M the next year.

 

We were unlucky when we misspent the savings on two bozos.

 

Granted, Masterson couldn't even carry Dempster's jock.

 

[moonslav59]

Not without better pitching than we've gotten this year.

 

At the end of the day it's the W's that put the fannies in the seats.

 

True, butd I haven't given up on this year, despite my recent grumblings and venting.

[moonslav59]

Pardon the long lists. Here is what I found on the most recent BIG free agent signings since 2011 and the largest contracts in MLB history (FA or otherwise). Look at the names and see how many of these big signings have been an unqualified success...

 

Recent Top Free Agent Signings:

2011:

$142M/7 Carl Crawford

$126M/7 Jayson Werth

$120M/5 Cliff Lee

$80M/5 Adrian Beltre

$56M/4 Adam Dunn

2012:

$247M/10 Albert Pujols

$219M/9 Prince Fielder

$122M/5 CC Sabathia

$106M/6 Jose Reyes

2013:

$147M/6 Zack Greinke (with opt-out)

$125M/5 Josh Hamilton

2014:

$240M/10 Robinson Cano

$155M/7 Masahiro Tanaka

$153M/7 Jacoby Ellsbury

$130M/7 Shin-Soo Choo

$90M/5 Hunter Pence

$85M/5 Brian McCann

2015:

$210M/7 Max Scherzer

$155M/6 Jon Lester

$95M/5 Pablo Sandoval

$88M/4 Hanley Ramirez

2016:

$217M/7 David Price (with opt-out)

$207M/6 Zack Greinke

$161M/7 Chris Davis

$133M/6 Justin Upton (with opt-out)

$130M/6 Johnny Cueto (with opt-out)

$110M/5 Jordan Zimmerman

$90M/5 Jeff Samardzija

 

Largest Contracts (FA or other)

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)

2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)

5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)

… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)

7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)

9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)

10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)

11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)

16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)

20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)

21. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

. . . Chris Davis, $161,000,000 (2016-22)

23. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)

. . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)

25. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

26. Masahiro Tanaka, $155,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Jon Lester, $155,000,000 (2015-20)

28. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

29. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20)

30. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

31. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)

32. Mike Trout, $144,500,000 (2015-20)

33. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18)

34. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)

35. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)

36. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)

37. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)

38. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

39. Freddie Freeman, $135,000,000 (2014-21)

40. Justin Upton, $132,750,000 (2016-21)

41. Shin-Soo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Johnny Cueto, $130,000,000 (2016-21)

43. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)

44. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)

47. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)

. . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)

49. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16)

50. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)

51. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)

55. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)

56. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)

57. Jordan Zimmermann, $110,000,000 (2016-20)

. . . Dustin Pedroia, $110,000,000 (2014-21)

59. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17)

60. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)

. . . Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20)

62. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)

. . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)

. . . Ryan Zimmerman, $100,000,000 (2014-19)

. . . Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22)

. . . Kyle Seager, $100,000,000 (2015-21)

67. Adam Wainwright, $97,500,000 (2014-18)

68. Pablo Sandoval, $95,000,000 (2015-19)

69. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)

70. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)

71. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)

. . . Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)

. . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

. . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12)

. . . Hunter Pence, $90,000,000 (2014-18)

. . . Jeff Samardzija, $90,000,000 (2016-20)

 

Tell me how many you see...

[moonslav59]

Some others from before salaries got astronomical:

 

Carl Pavano, Wayne Garland, Vince Cloeman, Dave Collins, Albert Belle, Gary Mathews Jr., BJ Upton, Milton Bradley, Jason Bay, Mo Vaughn, Russ Ortiz, Carlos Silva, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Chan Ho Park.

[d-money]

Orioles lose. Hard to believe this team's still within striking distance considering how bad they have looked at times.