Just for fun - great Sox postseason relief performances

[User Name]

That makes no sense.

 

He doesn't understand how WAR works fundamentally, in the least.

[iortiz]

I think that number is higher than you think and largely a function of opportunity. For instance, compare with Tampa Bay (who is a useful control group here) and their highest save guys since 2010

 

2010: Rafael Soriano v Papelbon (93.8% v 82%)

2011: Kyle Farnsworth v Papelbon (80.6% v 91%)

2012: Fernando Rodney v Papelbon (96% v 90%)

2013: Fernando Rodney v Papelbon (82.2% v 81%)

2014: Jake McGee v Papelbon (83% v 91%)

2015: Brad Boxberger v Papelbon (87.2% v 92.3%)

 

Tampa Bay could approximate Papelbon's performance (and if you think of it - the differences in pct results in only a couple of wins over a season if that) while sifting through the dumpster. I am sure Papelbon could deliver a solid closer's performance this year. But so could a lot of others for a lot less. Hopefully Kimbrel can do a lot more than that.

 

Hi sk. I think you are comparing oranges with apples. Pap got what he got for what he posted with the Red Sox in terms of durability and consistency as a closer in the ALE (you don't that find trees), and what the Phillys thought that he could post moving forward at the time. He posted great numbers with the Phillys, numbers that the Phillys expected when he signed with them. BL: He earned every penny of that contract, that's out of question.

 

Also, How many franchises can assamble a BP like TB and having every year a different solid closer? A handful I guess, and the Red Sox are not one of them, by any means since Pap departed. Even some of those TB closers you presented are not great/solid.

 

In other words, How much has this franchise spent in busts, sorry closers, since Pap departed versus vs Pap's contract? I haven't calculated but I bet there's no big difference.

 

Also, Still the last two years you are presenting are not even close, and that's kinda of the point. Pap has been great.

[sk7326]

Hi sk. I think you are comparing oranges with apples. Pap got what he got for what he posted with the Red Sox in terms of durability and consistency as a closer in the ALE (you don't that find trees), and what the Phillys thought that he could post moving forward at the time. He posted great numbers with the Phillys, numbers that the Phillys expected when he signed with them. BL: He earned every penny of that contract, that's out of question.

 

Also, How many franchises can assamble a BP like TB and having every year a different solid closer? A handful I guess, and the Red Sox are not one of them, by any means since Pap departed. Even some of those TB closers you presented are not great/solid.

 

In other words, How much has this franchise spent in busts, sorry closers, since Pap departed versus vs Pap's contract? I haven't calculated but I bet there's no big difference.

 

Also, Still the last two years you are presenting are not even close, and that's kinda of the point. Pap has been great.

 

Uehara has been unambiguously better than Papelbon over the last three years. even with 15 fewer IP over the comparable three year span.

[Bellhorn04]

Papelbon's last 2 important outings were blown saves to end the Sox seasons in 2009 and 2011.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of the 'closer mystique', if there is such a thing, might come from the negative side of the job. Nobody forgets it when you blow a game in spectacular fashion. It can define a career in the wrong way - that happened to Donnie Moore and Calvin Schiraldi in a single postseason.

[mvp 78]

Papelbon's last 2 important outings were blown saves to end the Sox seasons in 2009 and 2011.

 

Crawford barely tried to catch that ball.

 

Too soon.

[a700hitter]

Uehara has been unambiguously better than Papelbon over the last three years. even with 15 fewer IP over the comparable three year span.

Uehara had one of the best seasons of all time by a closer in 2013. I can only think of a few relievers that had seasons that were close to his 2013. Counting 2013 in any 3 year span would make it hard for anyone to compete over that period.

[Dojji]

Papelbon's last 2 important outings were blown saves to end the Sox seasons in 2009 and 2011.

 

I have a hard time blaming Papelbon for the culmination of a whole month's epic failure in 2011 that took a team effort to achieve, we should have never been in that position to begin with and it's a laughable concept to suggest we would have gotten very far in that postseason to begin with with the state of the team at the time. His blown save was the nail in the coffin, but it wasn't the reason we didn't advance into the playoffs in 2011, not by a longshot. Daniel Bard and the rotation both had far more to do with what went wrong that year.

 

As for 2009, that was literally the first time he ever got beaten in a critical moment,

 

I'm fine with that track record personally, the greatest closer that ever lived had more and more heartbreaking letdown moments for his team than Papelbon ever could have had, and that doesn't take away from his legacy one little bit. let's start with the world series Mo literally blew in 2001 and the ALCS he sure helped blow in 2004, do those moments far far far worse than anything Papelbon did to hurt us, take away from his overall excellence? No. And the same to a lesser extent applies to Papelbon's few failures.

Edited March 16, 2016 by Dojji

[User Name]

Koji's last three years without 2013 have also been better than Papelbon's last three years. I can't find the composite numbers easily, but Koji has the edge in ERA, WHIP, ERA+, K/9, BB/9, K/BB. Papelbon only has the edge in IP. Over the last two, Papelbon has the edge in HR/9, ERA and ERA+, but Koji holds the edge in every other possible peripheral. Over the last five years Koji has been better too. And if you include 2013 in any calculation, well, you know the result. So iortiz is dead wrong because he did not check the numbers before posting. We get it, you like Papelbon, but be objective.

 

Also, half te teams in the league find competent closers consistently without paying big bucks. Saying otherwise is dishonest.

[User Name]

And I still don't get the adoration for Papelbon. I honestly don't even get the adoration for Mo. Closers are overrated IMO.

[a700hitter]

And I still don't get the adoration for Papelbon. I honestly don't even get the adoration for Mo. Closers are overrated IMO.

As someone who carries the scars of blown games and seasons when the Red Sox had no competent closer, I have a greater appreciation for a big stud that can lock down games consistently. Not having one has caused me too many grey hairs and bellyaches.

[sk7326]

I have a hard time blaming Papelbon for the culmination of a whole month's epic failure in 2011 that took a team effort to achieve, we should have never been in that position to begin with and it's a laughable concept to suggest we would have gotten very far in that postseason to begin with with the state of the team at the time. His blown save was the nail in the coffin, but it wasn't the reason we didn't advance into the playoffs in 2011, not by a longshot. Daniel Bard and the rotation both had far more to do with what went wrong that year.

 

As for 2009, that was literally the first time he ever got beaten in a critical moment,

 

I'm fine with that track record personally, the greatest closer that ever lived had more and more heartbreaking letdown moments for his team than Papelbon ever could have had, and that doesn't take away from his legacy one little bit. let's start with the world series Mo literally blew in 2001 and the ALCS he sure helped blow in 2004, do those moments far far far worse than anything Papelbon did to hurt us, take away from his overall excellence? No. And the same to a lesser extent applies to Papelbon's few failures.

 

You pitch in a ton of big games, you're going to lose occasionally. Baseball is a funny game. If you remember, the ball Rivera threw to lose the 2001 Series was a perfect pitch. In 2011, you never know what would have happened if the Red Sox had stumbled into the tournament. Baseball is weird. I certainly did not predict the last 7 games of the 2004 World Series coming off of an 11 run loss. Papelbon was a good closer for us - and early on a great one. Now did he add a ton relative to a decent replacement? No - but that is because that job does not have that much separation leaguewide.

 

The win expectancy for entering a game with the bases empty and a one-run lead is 80% or 84% (depends on whether you're at home or not). With a three run lead it's more like 95%. So the "average" level of win conversion is very very high.

[User Name]

As someone who carries the scars of blown games and seasons when the Red Sox had no competent closer, I have a greater appreciation for a big stud that can lock down games consistently. Not having one has caused me too many grey hairs and bellyaches.

 

You need to have a team competent enough to put a guy in the position to blow a big game in the first place. That's what I'm getting at. Also, too many teams are winning it all with SP converts making the league minimum for me to be so big on the closer position. As SK said, the separation in closer quality has been reduced drastically, because of the abundance of quality BP arms and the return to prominence of pitching.

[Dojji]

And I still don't get the adoration for Papelbon. I honestly don't even get the adoration for Mo. Closers are overrated IMO.

 

No adoration here. I just wish the man got half the respect he earned.

[a700hitter]

You need to have a team competent enough to put a guy in the position to blow a big game in the first place. That's what I'm getting at. Also, too many teams are winning it all with SP converts making the league minimum for me to be so big on the closer position. As SK said, the separation in closer quality has been reduced drastically, because of the abundance of quality BP arms and the return to prominence of pitching.

I can still remember the 1976 team that was loaded with great hitters. That team blew an incredible number of games from the 7th inning on. Back then the closer often went 2-3 innings. We tried to buy Rollie Fingers, who would have made all the difference in the world for that team.

[Dojji]

You pitch in a ton of big games, you're going to lose occasionally. Baseball is a funny game. If you remember, the ball Rivera threw to lose the 2001 Series was a perfect pitch. In 2011, you never know what would have happened if the Red Sox had stumbled into the tournament.

 

No, sometimes you can know. I think we all knew that 2005 wasn't the year, and the smoking by the White Sox was not a great surprise. Honestly I was more disappointed by 2008 and 2003 than by 05 or 11, and there's a reason for that.

[mvp 78]

No, sometimes you can know. I think we all knew that 2005 wasn't the year, and the smoking by the White Sox was not a great surprise. Honestly I was more disappointed by 2008 and 2003 than by 05 or 11, and there's a reason for that.

 

You were more disappointed in the teams that lost in the last game of the ALCS than mediocre teams that either didn't make the playoffs or probably shouldn't have made the playoffs?

[sk7326]

No, sometimes you can know. I think we all knew that 2005 wasn't the year, and the smoking by the White Sox was not a great surprise. Honestly I was more disappointed by 2008 and 2003 than by 05 or 11, and there's a reason for that.

 

Oh I don't know - anytime you get to the rodeo, losing sucks. Once you see an 83-79 team win the World Series with Jeff Suppan as a playoff series MVP, the idea of a team being roadkill in baseball strikes me as crazy. Even the biggest underdog is 40-60 at worst.

[Bellhorn04]

And I still don't get the adoration for Papelbon. I honestly don't even get the adoration for Mo. Closers are overrated IMO.

 

What about the adoration for Koji?

[mvp 78]

What about the adoration for Koji?

 

High fives and hugs. That's why we love him. The attitude and his success.

 

Paps never had a fun loving attitude and always came across as douchey.

[Bellhorn04]

High fives and hugs. That's why we love him. The attitude and his success.

 

Paps never had a fun loving attitude and always came across as douchey.

 

I get that, but UN's post was about the closer position being overrated. I'm asking if Koji's 2013 was overrated.

[sk7326]

I get that, but UN's post was about the closer position being overrated. I'm asking if Koji's 2013 was overrated.

 

Quality of the season? No.

 

The value of his quality over say, a Cody Allen. Yes, a little.

[mvp 78]

I get that, but UN's post was about the closer position being overrated. I'm asking if Koji's 2013 was overrated.

 

How was it overrated exactly? He was lights out in the post season and they won a WS. This post was simply comparing the postseason performance of Foulke, Paps and Koji. I don't think anyone was nominating him for the HOF.

[User Name]

No adoration here. I just wish the man got half the respect he earned.

 

My problem isn't Papelbon specifically. It's about the closer position in general.

[User Name]

What about the adoration for Koji?

 

No adoration, he's just proving a convenient point: The closer positon is overrated. Koji was the 3rd option on the depth chart, and he ended up having a season for the ages, at a fraction of Papelbon's cost, and he's been better for years. Wade Davis, a throw in in a trade a couple years ago, is now the best reliever in baseball. The C position is overrated.

[User Name]

Quality of the season? No.

 

The value of his quality over say, a Cody Allen. Yes, a little.

 

Bingo. This is the point. Are we the same person? Except I'm probably younger and more handsome, but with 1/4 of the money (pesos and all that)

[Bellhorn04]

No adoration, he's just proving a convenient point: The closer positon is overrated. Koji was the 3rd option on the depth chart, and he ended up having a season for the ages, at a fraction of Papelbon's cost, and he's been better for years. Wade Davis, a throw in in a trade a couple years ago, is now the best reliever in baseball. The C position is overrated.

 

But the fact that the best closers can come out of nowhere doesn't necessarily translate to the position being overrated. Sometimes ace starters come out of nowhere too (like Jake Arrieta in 2015).

[sk7326]

But the fact that the best closers can come out of nowhere doesn't necessarily translate to the position being overrated. Sometimes ace starters come out of nowhere too (like Jake Arrieta in 2015).

 

I agree to a point here. I think what we've seen is that a bullpen with shifting jobs does not seem to work. Players do not seem to be comfortable with a true matchup-based approach (what a bullpen by committee is - not the hash Grady Little made of it). A guy to consistently pitch the inning does matter - players clearly like the roles.

 

But I am not sure Kimbrel's performance, even at it's right tail, would actually move the standings needs that much relative to simply telling Carson Smith, this is your team and letting it fly. There is value in the late game consistency - but I have my doubts whether the 9th inning is specifically harder, enough to warrant a dedicated specialist.

[User Name]

But the fact that the best closers can come out of nowhere doesn't necessarily translate to the position being overrated. Sometimes ace starters come out of nowhere too (like Jake Arrieta in 2015).

 

But a closer will never have the same impact in the season or postseason as an ace starter, and that translates to the position being overrated. You can win with a mid-tier closer and a couple good setup arms, you can't without a trio of truly dependable starters. The people who created the WAR formula know and understood this, and that's why relief pitchers are, overall, not as valued as starters. and they should not be.

[User Name]

I agree to a point here. I think what we've seen is that a bullpen with shifting jobs does not seem to work. Players do not seem to be comfortable with a true matchup-based approach (what a bullpen by committee is - not the hash Grady Little made of it). A guy to consistently pitch the inning does matter - players clearly like the roles.

 

But I am not sure Kimbrel's performance, even at it's right tail, would actually move the standings needs that much relative to simply telling Carson Smith, this is your team and letting it fly. There is value in the late game consistency - but I have my doubts whether the 9th inning is specifically harder, enough to warrant a dedicated specialist.

 

A relief ace is much more valuable than a closer IMO.