2016 Starting Rotation

[User Name]

At some point well in advance of the contract running out, it becomes evident what you have acquired. You don't need it to run to conclusion. My point is that saying that a trade which turns out bad was a good trade when it was made doesn't make sense. Both sides think they have made a good deal when they walk away from the table. Otherwise, the trade doesn't get done. The proof is what happens on the field.

 

In Porcello's case, it has not become evident yet, which is the crux of the argument.

[a700hitter]

In Porcello's case, it has not become evident yet, which is the crux of the argument.

I have acknowledged that. I still think that he was overpaid for a #4, and he has a considerable body of work (he is in his 7th full season) in which he has never been his team's #2. I see him topping out as a #3 type if things work out ideally. If he pitches like the solid #4 that his career indicates, he will be an asset to the rotation (albeit an overpaid asset). Last year was supposed to be the year that he took his game to a new level, and instead it slipped a couple of notches. The final chapter is not written on his deal, but if he pitches this year like he did he did last year, we can call the time of death. Edited April 24, 2016 by a700hitter

[User Name]

I have acknowledged that. I still think that he was overpaid for a #4, and he has a considerable body of work (he is in his 7th full season) in which he has never been his team's #2. I see him topping out as a #3 type if things work out ideally. If he pitches like the solid #4 that his career indicates, he will be an asset to the rotation (albeit an overpaid asset). Last year was supposed to be the year that he took his game to a new level, and instead it slipped a couple of notches.

 

I don't quite understand what is up with Porcello. He's giving up homers at an alarming rate, but he's striking out hitters like he's channeling his inner Pedro. It's disconcerting.

[Hugh2]

Hopefully Eduardo Rodriguez can strengthen up the rotation when he comes back. I always assume young pitchers as talented as him will improve and get better from year to year and he does have the stuff. However I can't help feel a little concerned that there is also a chance that he takes a step back and continues to have issues tipping his pitches. It would be huge for this staff if him and Smith can come back and contribute to the Sox, I believe E-Rod is making his first rehabilitation start on Thursday.

 

I think Price will be fine and Porcello has been very encouraging this year. There is definitely more talent and reasons to be optimistic this year than last year on the pitching, but to date.....it's pretty much stunk.

[a700hitter]

I don't quite understand what is up with Porcello. He's giving up homers at an alarming rate, but he's striking out hitters like he's channeling his inner Pedro. It's disconcerting.

A change of approach 6 years into your career is probably not the easiest thing to do, especially when it seems to be abandoning his bread and butter "out pitch" -- his sinker. His last start he pitched very well while down in the zone. He never got hurt down in the zone. When he was up in the zone he overpowered a few hitters for k's, but then he got hurt with the HR ball. The only times that he got hurt was when he was up in the zone.

 

Like I said in my edit to my last post, the final chapter is not written on his deal, but if he pitches this year like he did he did last year, we can call the time of death.

[a700hitter]

Hopefully Eduardo Rodriguez can strengthen up the rotation when he comes back. I always assume young pitchers as talented as him will improve and get better from year to year and he does have the stuff. However I can't help feel a little concerned that there is also a chance that he takes a step back and continues to have issues tipping his pitches. It would be huge for this staff if him and Smith can come back and contribute to the Sox, I believe E-Rod is making his first rehabilitation start on Thursday.

 

I think Price will be fine and Porcello has been very encouraging this year. There is definitely more talent and reasons to be optimistic this year than last year on the pitching, but to date.....it's pretty much stunk.

I don't think that we could overstate the importance of ER and Smith coming back and producing at a high level.

[User Name]

Smith is of huge importance, because he's the link that will allow Farrell to stay away from Tazawa and Koji on a near-daily basis. If those two burn out, we are done.

[FredLynn]

The problem with Buchholz isn't generally production (when he's on, he can make juggernaut lineups look silly), it's providing innings. He averages 145 IP since 2012, which is his career high. The contract is not a bargain, but it's not an overpay either. They should, however, have pursued other options when two fifths of the rotation is comprised of notoriously fragile pitchers.

 

I agree about the fragility issue. Thats his Achilles heel. That said, for the past four years, 2012-2015 inclusive, he has averaged 145 IP with an average ERA+ of 134. Two great years; two bad ones. If you project his salary based on 200 IP (200/145x$13M) you come out at just under $18M/yr for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 134. Ordinarily that would be a great deal for the Red Sox, but because his fragility has additional costs (ie, finding someone else to take his place when he gets hurt) I think its just a fair contract. Basically, I agree with you: its not an overpay. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him just yet.

[User Name]

I agree about the fragility issue. Thats his Achilles heel. That said, for the past four years, 2012-2015 inclusive, he has averaged 145 IP with an average ERA+ of 134. Two great years; two bad ones. If you project his salary based on 200 IP (200/145x$13M) you come out at just under $18M/yr for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 134. Ordinarily that would be a great deal for the Red Sox, but because his fragility has additional costs (ie, finding someone else to take his place when he gets hurt) I think its just a fair contract. Basically, I agree with you: its not an overpay. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him just yet.

 

The problem was not bringing back Buchholz. The problem was not getting another dependable pitcher and moving Kelly to the BP as Buch/injury insurance.

[FredLynn]

The problem was not bringing back Buchholz. The problem was not getting another dependable pitcher and moving Kelly to the BP as Buch/injury insurance.

 

Lets assume they do the right thing and move Kelly to the pen and keep Wright in the SR. Once ERod returns we would then be pretty well set for our starting five-as long as they stay healthy. I am not sure where they would park another "dependable pitcher" who would, essentially, be our #6 SP. Good #6 SP are hard to come by. I don't see another way to handle it other than assume Buchholz is going to get injured before the season started, trade him, and try to get a "more dependable" SP, if we could find one. Maybe Miley is available again.

[a700hitter]

I agree about the fragility issue. Thats his Achilles heel. That said, for the past four years, 2012-2015 inclusive, he has averaged 145 IP with an average ERA+ of 134. Two great years; two bad ones. If you project his salary based on 200 IP (200/145x$13M) you come out at just under $18M/yr for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 134. Ordinarily that would be a great deal for the Red Sox, but because his fragility has additional costs (ie, finding someone else to take his place when he gets hurt) I think its just a fair contract. Basically, I agree with you: its not an overpay. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him just yet.

I am unconvinced with this mathematical extrapolation. I just don't know if a part time performance can be extrapolated to a full time performance with mathematical equivalence. Can we extrapolate 1 inning bullpen pitcher's performance in the same manner comparing them to starters? The problem that I have with Buch is that every season we are left with an enormous hole in the top of the rotation at or before the All Star Break with no way to fill it. That has an immeasurable cost.

[FredLynn]

I am unconvinced with this mathematical extrapolation. I just don't know if a part time performance can be extrapolated to a full time performance with mathematical equivalence. Can we extrapolate 1 inning bullpen pitcher's performance in the same manner comparing them to starters? The problem that I have with Buch is that every season we are left with an enormous hole in the top of the rotation at or before the All Star Break with no way to fill it. That has an immeasurable cost.

 

The time to trade him has passed. If we were able to get a pitcher equally as good but less fragile during the offseason that would have been a great move. Right now we are going to have to give him a chance to keep healthy, for once. I don't see them getting rid of him this year.

[a700hitter]

The time to trade him has passed. If we were able to get a pitcher equally as good but less fragile during the offseason that would have been a great move. Right now we are going to have to give him a chance to keep healthy, for once. I don't see them getting rid of him this year.

If there is still a team option for 2017, he has trade value.

[FredLynn]

If there is still a team option for 2017, he has trade value.

 

If he cannot manage to stay healthy this year or if he cannot perform well then we should definitely see what we can get for him next offseason. In my mind, this is his last chance to that he can pitch at least 170 innings and pitch well.

[Kingface]

I don't know........his team option is for $14mil I think. We have not seen $14mil Buch in a long time....... I know that there have been some deals for pitchers who may 'see less' then Buch for more $$$$.......but when you compare their #'s to Buch's and thei IP the last few years.....they best Buch. I have been one of his biggest supporters, but the only teams I see willing to trade for a pitcher like him are teams looking for diamonds in a rough, and unfortunately those teams do not like to spend $$$$.....thus will not spend $$$$ for him.

[FredLynn]

I don't know........his team option is for $14mil I think. We have not seen $14mil Buch in a long time....... I know that there have been some deals for pitchers who may 'see less' then Buch for more $$$$.......but when you compare their #'s to Buch's and thei IP the last few years.....they best Buch. I have been one of his biggest supporters, but the only teams I see willing to trade for a pitcher like him are teams looking for diamonds in a rough, and unfortunately those teams do not like to spend $$$$.....thus will not spend $$$$ for him.

 

Its likely $13.5M; its only $14M if he finished first or second in Cy Young balloting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml#contracts). The fact of the matter is that he is all ours, probably for the rest of the season. I don't think thats such a bad thing. I am curious to see if somehow he can combine durability with performance, for once, this year.

[User Name]

Lets assume they do the right thing and move Kelly to the pen and keep Wright in the SR. Once ERod returns we would then be pretty well set for our starting five-as long as they stay healthy. I am not sure where they would park another "dependable pitcher" who would, essentially, be our #6 SP. Good #6 SP are hard to come by. I don't see another way to handle it other than assume Buchholz is going to get injured before the season started, trade him, and try to get a "more dependable" SP, if we could find one. Maybe Miley is available again.

 

How long until Buchholz gets injured and Wright regresses? Can you not see the attrition factor already eating away at the rotation with E-Rod and Kelly injured?

[Kingface]

Its likely $13.5M; its only $14M if he finished first or second in Cy Young balloting (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml#contracts). The fact of the matter is that he is all ours, probably for the rest of the season. I don't think thats such a bad thing. I am curious to see if somehow he can combine durability with performance, for once, this year.

 

The guy is such a mystery.....and has been for some time. I used to watch him pitch in Portland all of the time and he was one of those that 'had it'. He was always so scrawny that it was almost painful to watch him live. I can't remember the last time I saw any pitcher, on any team have top 3 talent in the league.......but could never seem to put it together HEALTHY fo ONE STINKIN SEASON!!!!!

[FredLynn]

How long until Buchholz gets injured and Wright regresses? Can you not see the attrition factor already eating away at the rotation with E-Rod and Kelly injured?

 

Wright has an ERA of 1.4. He is going to regress from that. Don't forget that he would likely be our #5 SP. If he can manage to keep his ERA around 4 I would be thrilled. As for injuries: they happen to all teams. I am not sure that the Red Sox are going to have an injury profile that is much worse than league average. Thats really the key to getting a ring: keeping our major players healthy. And thats a crapshoot.

[User Name]

Wright has an ERA of 1.4. He is going to regress from that. Don't forget that he would likely be our #5 SP. If he can manage to keep his ERA around 4 I would be thrilled. As for injuries: they happen to all teams. I am not sure that the Red Sox are going to have an injury profile that is much worse than league average. Thats really the key to getting a ring: keeping our major players healthy. And thats a crapshoot.

 

Right, because Buchholz has not been injured every year since 2012 and Kelly doesn't have an extensive history of back and shoulder troubles, while Porcello was coming off a season that saw him as one of the worst starting pitchers in the Majors. They had a bunch of question marks. You are trying to defend the indefensible.

[FredLynn]

Right, because Buchholz has not been injured every year since 2012 and Kelly doesn't have an extensive history of back and shoulder troubles, while Porcello was coming off a season that saw him as one of the worst starting pitchers in the Majors. They had a bunch of question marks. You are trying to defend the indefensible.

 

First, I think we can stipulate that Buchholz has something to prove vis a vis injuries. And we can also stipulate that Kelly belongs in the pen where he is less likely to get hurt because he won't be throwing as many pitches. Porcello was horrible last year; but the year before that he had an ERA+ of 113 and his ERA had gone down for three consecutive years. In addition, he has averaged nearly 200 IP for the seven years before this one. Finally, the Red Sox have no monopoly on injuries. Just off the top of my head, I believe the Yankees lost Pineda for a whole season. And currently the Orioles have had Gausman, Gallardo, and Matusz on the DL already this year; the Rays have Cobb and Boxberger on the DL. I am not sure the Red Sox even have a worse than average injury profile. No team makes it through the year injury free.

[cp176]

I would have a much easier time with Buchholz if we did not expect and need close to top of the rotation performances out of him. Probably from time to time we might well still see him throw a gem but is it worth the wait? I have seen him long enough personally and certainly wish that he was somewhere else. Sadly, Kelly seems to be following in his footsteps.

[cp176]

The problem was not bringing back Buchholz. The problem was not getting another dependable pitcher and moving Kelly to the BP as Buch/injury insurance.

 

Yup - If a solid number 2 had been signed (as many of us have clamored for) then buchholz's Jekyl and Hyde crap would be much more tolerable. Put him in the 4/5 slot and take what you get.

[User Name]

First, I think we can stipulate that Buchholz has something to prove vis a vis injuries. And we can also stipulate that Kelly belongs in the pen where he is less likely to get hurt because he won't be throwing as many pitches. Porcello was horrible last year; but the year before that he had an ERA+ of 113 and his ERA had gone down for three consecutive years. In addition, he has averaged nearly 200 IP for the seven years before this one. Finally, the Red Sox have no monopoly on injuries. Just off the top of my head, I believe the Yankees lost Pineda for a whole season. And currently the Orioles have had Gausman, Gallardo, and Matusz on the DL already this year; the Rays have Cobb and Boxberger on the DL. I am not sure the Red Sox even have a worse than average injury profile. No team makes it through the year injury free.

 

But you're talking aabout two teams (Yankees, Rays) who are much better positioned to withstand pitching injuries, and a team whose lack of pitching depth will almost certainly be its downfall. The Sox had every opportunity to shore up their depth after acquiring Price, and chose not tom which is the point.

[FredLynn]

But you're talking aabout two teams (Yankees, Rays) who are much better positioned to withstand pitching injuries, and a team whose lack of pitching depth will almost certainly be its downfall. The Sox had every opportunity to shore up their depth after acquiring Price, and chose not tom which is the point.

 

I just used those two teams as examples. I didn't take the time to fully research the injury history of every team. I did find one source, fangraphs, that shows that for the 2013 season the Sox were in the middle third for days lost due to injury (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-disabled-list-team-data/) Sure, in an ideal world DD would have obtained another TOTR SP (at great cost, no doubt). I do not think that was a realistic expectation after obtaining an ace. Henry simply isn't going to pay for that. Hence, we are stuck with a relatively cheap, if fragile, Clay Buchholz.

Edit: one more graph, from 2002-2011 showing the Sox in the middle of the pack in terms of player days lost on the DL:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/10-year-disabled-list-trends/

Edited April 24, 2016 by FredLynn

[Dojji]

Yup - If a solid number 2 had been signed (as many of us have clamored for) then buchholz's Jekyl and Hyde crap would be much more tolerable. Put him in the 4/5 slot and take what you get.

 

Buchholz right now is in the 4 hole in the rotation, at least until Wright regresses. Price is ahead on faith that he's a good bet to pitch better than he has, Porcello and Wright on performance. Right now Wright is pitching like that solid #2, not sure he'll sustain that, but that's what he's doing at the moment, and the fact of the matter is we're still complaining about Buchholz because he's still not even pitching well enough to be the #4 starter.

 

Thank God that Steve Wright has been as good as he has. because of that we can possibly put Buch on the hot seat a bit.

 

Tell ya what though, if Buchholz can turn it on a bit, and Wright only regresses to the high 3's low 4's ERA guy I suspected he was before the season started (a respectable #3 in other words), we could actually have a heck of a rotation.

Edited April 24, 2016 by Dojji

[User Name]

I just used those two teams as examples. I didn't take the time to fully research the injury history of every team. I did find one source, fangraphs, that shows that for the 2013 season the Sox were in the middle third for days lost due to injury (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-disabled-list-team-data/) Sure, in an ideal world DD would have obtained another TOTR SP (at great cost, no doubt). I do not think that was a realistic expectation after obtaining an ace. Henry simply isn't going to pay for that. Hence, we are stuck with a relatively cheap, if fragile, Clay Buchholz.

 

Doug Fister and Mat Latos signed for a combined 10 million. Sure, they were lottery tickets, but they are both relatively healthy guys coming off down years who could have competed for a spot and protected against attrition. There were options. You are arguing for the sake of arguing.

[User Name]

Buchholz right now is in the 4 hole in the rotation, at least until Wright regresses. Price is ahead on faith that he's a good bet to pitch better than he has, Porcello and Wright on performance. Right now Wright is pitching like that solid #2, not sure he'll sustain that, but that's what he's doing at the moment, and the fact of the matter is we're still complaining about Buchholz because he's still not even pitching well enough to be the #4 starter.

 

Thank God that Steve Wright has been as good as he has. because of that we can possibly put Buch on the hot seat a bit.

 

Tell ya what though, if Buchholz can turn it on a bit, and Wright only regresses to the high 3's low 4's ERA guy I suspected he was before the season started (a respectable #3 in other words), we could actually have a heck of a rotation.

 

I actually like Wright, but you are doing your best to make me dislike the guy by talking about him non-stop, all day, every day. We get it, you like Wright and he's an awesome story, but goddamn.

[FredLynn]

Doug Fister and Mat Latos signed for a combined 10 million. Sure, they were lottery tickets, but they are both relatively healthy guys coming off down years who could have competed for a spot and protected against attrition. There were options. You are arguing for the sake of arguing.

 

I am arguing because I am of a different opinion than you are. Where would we put either of those guys? Assuming we still have our current SP. I would have had no problem signing Latos for $3M as insurance for Buchholz, but not at the cost of getting rid of CB. Latos was also a risk, given what he did last year.

[User Name]

I am arguing because I am of a different opinion than you are. Where would we put either of those guys? Assuming we still have our current SP. I would have had no problem signing Latos for $3M as insurance for Buchholz, but not at the cost of getting rid of CB. Latos was also a risk, given what he did last year.

 

You wouldn't have had to get rid of anyone. Kelly could have moved to the BP, Wright could have been moved to the BP. I argued for that move all offseason, so this is not a hindsight issue, but it was easy to see that the Sox lacked depth at MLB SP, and that depth is being tested right now.