2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[a700hitter]

Yes, it's a consensus among the executives that Abraham interviewed. You are obviously going to believe what you want to believe. I'm going to believe the opinions of these executives who do have some inside knowledge.

Unnamed executives. Was this such highly sensitive information that each of the execs needed to be off the record? Maybe Abrahams just needed to put something in a column. But like I said before, if you are right, Ben was a puppet, not really the GM. It is impossible to evaluate the performance of a puppet.

[User Name]

It's better than the s*** you and Elktonnick are making up. That's for damn sure. Again, none of us know the inner workings of the Red Sox organization. Stop making s*** up.

[Spudboy]

Lol.

[cp176]

It's all good. We all get the same stuff to read as near as I can tell. We all get to have our opinions. It's a good read. C'mon - gives me something to read. I'm just surprised that a guy like DD would want to come to Boston. Whoops - forgot he got fired and actively sought major league employment in another city. Lucky for him and oh yeah - lucky for us I think.

[User Name]

But shouldn't we be over the BC arguments already? It's like a scorned, cheated-on ex talking to her girlfriends about what a douche the dudebro she was dating was.

 

Pablo's fat, the rotation needs improving, Hanley still looks like a linebacker and Castillo says he tweaked his swing. Plenty to talk about.

[cp176]

Based upon the contents of most of our threads - I think not. talking about Pablo's eating habits and fat ass pales in comparison to who in the f*** really calls the shots upstairs.

[cp176]

You're right - the rotation still needs improving and Hanley still looks like a linebacker.

[User Name]

It's not a question, it is common sense. Teams with presidents of baseball operations, have the president of baseball operations calling the shots. Larry called the shots, which is why Epstein got the hell out of here. There is no question. It is a fact. The hierarchy is there for all to see.

 

The real question being asked is whether or not Cherington was a "puppet". That's a douchey question asked by douchey people trying to rile up people who liked Cherington. Let's stick to actual baseball talk instead of trying to annoy good posters plz.

[cp176]

hadn't heard about Castillo tweaking his swing.

[Elktonnick]

No, you think you know why Cherington is unemployed. Your opinion is so far over the top, nothing is going to change your mind.

 

I don't to need to know why he is unemployed. The fact that he is speaks for itself.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Elktonnick

[Elktonnick]

I have read all the data on overweight players. I know they age more rapidly than other players. I am not arguing that Pablo's contract was a good one. I just don't think that anyone could have realistically or honestly predicted a 5 WAR decline in one year.

 

As far as Fangraphs choosing what data to use for their models, that is true. And they constantly test and tweak their models to make them better.

 

As far as other models doing a better job, I have no scientific study comparing them. I have already posted that human projections are probably just as good. However, as I have stated a couple of times already, it is statistically impossible to consistently predict standings with an error better than 6.4 games.

 

An error of 6.4 games would be considered perfect. An error of 10 games is not that bad. You can criticize Fangraphs projections as much as you want, but you won't find anything statistically better.

 

Any statistician will tell you that an error that large given the size of the universe makes the projection meaningless. When you have a range of between 75 and 95 games on an 85 win projection is really not any better than a random guess. You can rely on Fangraph projections if you wish but you'd go broke in Vegas if you actually placed any bets based on their projections.

[jung]

Fangraphs is literally telling its audience that it is just having fun with numbers with that nonsense....Not to be taken seriously.

[User Name]

What they are telling the audience is that it's impossible to accurately forecast a baseball season, but they are trying to create the next best thing. You seem to ironically, not understand the literal meaning of "literally".

[jung]

God you do such a good job of being an *******. Were you born this way or is this an acquired skill?

 

By the way, there was no Pres. of Baseball Ops position while Larry was Pres. of the Club which is what allowed him to play the shell game he played. He absorbed it into the Pres. of the Club role.

 

And as for creating the next best thing or telling their audience it is the next best thing that is the equivalent of saying this is not a real projection...it is the next best thing to a real projection...ergo...."fun with numbers".

Edited January 25, 2016 by jung

[User Name]

If being an ******* is calling a spade a spade, then I'll be an ******* all day long. Stop making s*** up, and I bet we'll get along swimmingly.

[jung]

As usual you have no idea what you are talking about and I will do as i please.

[User Name]

But I don't make s*** up, or make 100-page posts about pure and total nonsense. Get a grip.

[jung]

I don't make stuff up either. Its a discussion forum.....Most of it is opinion by definition.

 

You are a provocateur. You have no interest in discussion. You traipse around the site calling this absurd and that idiotic without offering any credible argument for why they might be either and then when confronted you just ignore it.

 

You are the site's self proclaimed hall monitor. What....in school they would not let you be the crossing guard for a week? I bet thats it. I bet I know why too. Because you are the kind of person that would contrive to have two cars bash into each at an intersection just so you could see how far the trim would fly and I bet everybody knew it.

[cp176]

hadn't heard about Castillo tweaking his swing.

 

hey - Just read that article about the change Castillo has made with respect to his swing. Sounds good. I am more impressed that he has worked hard on his fitness level to protect against his ware out factor during the second half of the season.

 

Also - If Vasquez is as he says he will be 100% going into the spring, he won't need any minor league time to show what he can do or how healthy he is. He has lost 25 pounds - he is physically fit and if he participates all spring having him start in Pawtucket if he is still the catcher that he was will be a waste of time. All it will do is temporarily solve a position player issue. It is typical of what we tend to do. If the decision is to keep Swihart, they will have the spring to get him playing a different position. Before I get hit on this one, I am well aware of what conventional wisdom says - Give him time to regain what he needs to regain. No sense to rush him - blah blah blah. He may not be 100%. If that is the case of course, he will need time to fully heal. but, if he is 100%, sending him down only delays the inevitable. His ability behind the plate could make a very big difference for us going forward. I don't want them wasting his bullets.

[Kimmi]

Mo is the first weight challenged Red Sox guy that pops to mind and he dropped like a stone at age 30.

 

We've already established that large players age worse than others. We've already established that Pablo would likely not be of much value in the final year or two of his contract. Mo was 2 years older than Pablo when he hit his decline. Again, no one could have reasonably expected Pablo to be worth -2 WAR in the first year of his contract.

[Kimmi]

It's better than the s*** you and Elktonnick are making up. That's for damn sure. Again, none of us know the inner workings of the Red Sox organization. Stop making s*** up.

 

Thank you.

[Kimmi]

It's not a question, it is common sense. Teams with presidents of baseball operations, have the president of baseball operations calling the shots. Larry called the shots, which is why Epstein got the hell out of here. There is no question. It is a fact. The hierarchy is there for all to see.

 

The real question being asked is whether or not Cherington was a "puppet". That's a douchey question asked by douchey people trying to rile up people who liked Cherington. Let's stick to actual baseball talk instead of trying to annoy good posters plz.

 

The idea that Cherington was a puppet is nonsense. Ben (and Theo) are responsible for the great state of our farm system. They were both largely in charge of baseball ops. The problems always arose when Lucchino decided he needed to make a "splash" and he stuck his nose where it didn't belong. Unfortunately, he had the power to overrule Ben when he wanted to.

 

Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.

[Kimmi]

Any statistician will tell you that an error that large given the size of the universe makes the projection meaningless. When you have a range of between 75 and 95 games on an 85 win projection is really not any better than a random guess. You can rely on Fangraph projections if you wish but you'd go broke in Vegas if you actually placed any bets based on their projections.

 

Any statistician will tell you not to go to Vegas and bet on baseball based on the projections. The projections are not meant to tell you what is actually going to happen during the season. There are too many unknowns and too much randomness in baseball for that to ever happen.

 

The projections are meant to tell you what the talent level of each team is and how they compare to one another. The Sox have a very talented team and, on paper, look better than every other team in the league right now besides the Cubs. That doesn't mean that they will finish the season with the 2nd best record. That means they have the talent to do so.

[Kimmi]

Fangraphs is literally telling its audience that it is just having fun with numbers with that nonsense....Not to be taken seriously.

 

Not true. The audience just needs to know how to accurately interpret what Fangraphs is telling them.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.

 

That's a pretty big statement, because it implies that Ben is as good as Theo. To me Theo is strong in both areas, long term development and player acquisitions.

 

Look at the solid, conservative additions he is making.

 

Can't help but notice where both Lester and Lackey have ended up.

[Elktonnick]

Any statistician will tell you not to go to Vegas and bet on baseball based on the projections. The projections are not meant to tell you what is actually going to happen during the season. There are too many unknowns and too much randomness in baseball for that to ever happen.

 

The projections are meant to tell you what the talent level of each team is and how they compare to one another. The Sox have a very talented team and, on paper, look better than every other team in the league right now besides the Cubs. That doesn't mean that they will finish the season with the 2nd best record. That means they have the talent to do so.

 

The point is that FanGraph literally aren't worth the effort it takes to concoct them. So any one quoting them to prove a point may just as well be quoting any Tom, Dick or Harry. BTW the Vegas reference is what is called a metaphor.

[Elktonnick]

The idea that Cherington was a puppet is nonsense. Ben (and Theo) are responsible for the great state of our farm system. They were both largely in charge of baseball ops. The problems always arose when Lucchino decided he needed to make a "splash" and he stuck his nose where it didn't belong. Unfortunately, he had the power to overrule Ben when he wanted to.

 

Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.

 

Now you don't know that either about Larry only overruling Ben when he wanted to make a splash. The idea that Ben the "Good" was responsible for all the good things and Larry the "Evil" one is responsible for all the bad sounds like as a fairy tale. BTW who gave Ben the Good the job in the first place.

[mvp 78]

The idea that Cherington was a puppet is nonsense. Ben (and Theo) are responsible for the great state of our farm system. They were both largely in charge of baseball ops. The problems always arose when Lucchino decided he needed to make a "splash" and he stuck his nose where it didn't belong. Unfortunately, he had the power to overrule Ben when he wanted to.

 

Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.

Meh. Theo has zero WS with Cubs. Ben had one.

 

Until Theo wins in Chicago, I won't be envious.

[a700hitter]

The idea that Cherington was a puppet is nonsense. Ben (and Theo) are responsible for the great state of our farm system. They were both largely in charge of baseball ops. The problems always arose when Lucchino decided he needed to make a "splash" and he stuck his nose where it didn't belong. Unfortunately, he had the power to overrule Ben when he wanted to.

 

Seriously, if people could just be patient and give Ben the autonomy to run the team, things would work out like they have with Theo and the Cubs.

You can't have it both ways. You throw bouquets at Ben for the moves you like and blame LL or JH for the moves you don't like. That doesn't sound like a rational operating model. Ben was either making the moves and the recommendations or LL was running the show. If you claim that LL was making the personnel decisions, basically Ben was a puppet, not the GM.

 

@ Username with the douchery comment. You are the biggest douche here. You need to stop. I hope that wasn't a subtle insult or veiled in any way.

 

@Username -- as far as your accusation of making things up, I am just assuming that Ben had the responsibilities of a GM. I am not the one cherry-picking the bad moves to exonerate him or elevate him. That is making stuff up. Also, please respect the ignore feature and stop taking free potshots at me that I don't see unless someone else posts them. It is not in the spirit of the ignore feature. The Ignore feature is not there to give the ignored poster free reign to take unanswered potshots.

Edited January 25, 2016 by a700hitter

[SoxnCycles]

Not true. The audience just needs to know how to accurately interpret what Fangraphs is telling them.

 

Seriously, you're too smart to be dealing with these morons on a daily basis.