2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[cp176]

I would hate to lose Swihart, but I would rather trade him than either Bogaerts or Betts. Also, I have always preferred a defensively oriented catcher over an offensive one. I really like the idea of a Vazquez/Hanigan tandem for next year. The defense would be elite, and any offense they provide would be gravy. So, trading Swihart would be the lesser of the evils.

 

That said, I keep hearing that Swihart's defense is good enough that he will eventually be the better overall catcher between the two. If that's the case, maybe Dombrowski plans on trading Vazquez after he shows he's healthy. Who knows?

 

Where did you read or hear that the thinking was that Swihart would become a better defensive catcher than Vaazquez?

[Spudboy]

His defense is bound to improve. He was thrown into the fire before he was ready, and he is still developing. He won't be Vazquez-esque, but he should be above average defensively.

 

His arm is good, although not as good as Vasquez at this point. He really needs to shore up his blocking skills. Too many pitches skip by him. He also needs to learn how to hold onto the ball when blocking the plate.

 

Can't find those observations in any metric. Never the less, they are valid and accurate.

[Spudboy]

Where did you read or hear that the thinking was that Swihart would become a better defensive catcher than Vaazquez?

 

Kimmi did not say that. She said that if his defense improves as expected that he would be a better overall catcher. I think!

[cp176]

Kimmi did not say that. She said that if his defense improves as expected that he would be a better overall catcher. I think!

 

Her comment was that she keeps hearing that if he continues to improve that he will become the better of the two catchers. I have not heard that and am thinking that I might have missed something. I try to follow the news but I have not heard this. I am pretty sure that Kimmi doesn't feel this way. I wonder who does. If Vasquez stays in baseball, I don't think that anyone questions which of the two will be the better defensive catcher. Swihart will get better for sure but I doubt if he gets to the level of a Vasquez.

[Dojji]

He can be the better catcher of the two by hitting like a middle of the lineup bat while being a non-liability behind the plate.Kind of like the catcher Salty should have been, although frankly I think Swihart has a better chance to actually get there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart was just rated as the worst catcher in the AL defensively. He obviously has a LONG way to go defensively. I believe in his bat, but I also think he could be your 1b of the future if you decide to keep both

[Spudboy]

Swihart was just rated as the worst catcher in the AL defensively. He obviously has a LONG way to go defensively. I believe in his bat, but I also think he could be your 1b of the future if you decide to keep both

 

I have suggested this several times but the Sox just don't listen to me!

[mvp 78]

I have suggested this several times but the Sox just don't listen to me!

 

1b of the future doesn't mean 1b of 2016. Let him have his fill of catching reps and see if he can improve there first.

[cp176]

He can be the better catcher of the two by hitting like a middle of the lineup bat while being a non-liability behind the plate.Kind of like the catcher Salty should have been, although frankly I think Swihart has a better chance to actually get there.

 

If you consider the whole package, you are probably right. I don't see him ever being the equal to Vasquez in terms of just doing all of the things a good catcher does from a defensive perspective. Swihart will get better but having watched a small sample of both there is no question who I would rather have behind the plate. Moving Swihart to first might be an option but looking down the line, I think first base is covered very well. I like the kid but I still think of all our tradeables he carries a lot of clout. If Vasquez is healthy, and Swihart is part of a package that provides us with a pitching improvement, we will not miss him.

[Spudboy]

If you consider the whole package, you are probably right. I don't see him ever being the equal to Vasquez in terms of just doing all of the things a good catcher does from a defensive perspective. Swihart will get better but having watched a small sample of both there is no question who I would rather have behind the plate. Moving Swihart to first might be an option but looking down the line, I think first base is covered very well. I like the kid but I still think of all our tradeables he carries a lot of clout. If Vasquez is healthy, and Swihart is part of a package that provides us with a pitching improvement, we will not miss him.

 

Not sure about that. Swihart seems to be a can't miss offensive prospect. If so I can see us lamenting trading him away when he goes on a multi-year run of production while the pitcher we acquire fades to obscurity or blows his arm out.

 

To me, I'd rather keep him on board and let him produce in a Sox uni. I very much doubt that any pitcher brought in while trading him would be worth more in the long run.

[Kimmi]

Her comment was that she keeps hearing that if he continues to improve that he will become the better of the two catchers. I have not heard that and am thinking that I might have missed something. I try to follow the news but I have not heard this. I am pretty sure that Kimmi doesn't feel this way. I wonder who does. If Vasquez stays in baseball, I don't think that anyone questions which of the two will be the better defensive catcher. Swihart will get better for sure but I doubt if he gets to the level of a Vasquez.

 

I said that Swihart would become the better overall catcher between the two, when combining offense with defense. The reports I have heard say that Swihart projects to be a pretty good defensive catcher in his own right, combined with strong offense, and that his overall value to the team would be greater than Vazquez'.

 

Vazquez is undoubtedly the better defensive catcher. I am in love with his defense, what little we've seen of it. My preference for a catcher is always to go with the elite defender, provided that he can hit enough to stay in the line up, which I think Vazquez can. If I had to pick one, I'd go with Vazquez, so I think we agree there.

[Kimmi]

I have suggested this several times but the Sox just don't listen to me!

 

I have said before that I like the idea of letting Swihart move to 1B and having a 3rd catcher on our team. However, while his bat projects to be very good for a catcher, it becomes more or less average for a first baseman, thereby losing its value. I don't think that's the route the Sox want to go.

[Kimmi]

If you consider the whole package, you are probably right. I don't see him ever being the equal to Vasquez in terms of just doing all of the things a good catcher does from a defensive perspective. Swihart will get better but having watched a small sample of both there is no question who I would rather have behind the plate. Moving Swihart to first might be an option but looking down the line, I think first base is covered very well. I like the kid but I still think of all our tradeables he carries a lot of clout. If Vasquez is healthy, and Swihart is part of a package that provides us with a pitching improvement, we will not miss him.

 

This is not a knock on Swihart because I am a fan of his, but I don't think it's a coincidence that our pitching improved when our defense improved, including getting Hanigan back behind the plate. In addition to Swihart having a negative DRS, he also ranked negatively in pitch framing.

 

I really don't want to give up Swihart, but if we're not trading Betts or Bogaerts, it will probably be necessary to part with him.

[cp176]

I said that Swihart would become the better overall catcher between the two, when combining offense with defense. The reports I have heard say that Swihart projects to be a pretty good defensive catcher in his own right, combined with strong offense, and that his overall value to the team would be greater than Vazquez'.

 

Vazquez is undoubtedly the better defensive catcher. I am in love with his defense, what little we've seen of it. My preference for a catcher is always to go with the elite defender, provided that he can hit enough to stay in the line up, which I think Vazquez can. If I had to pick one, I'd go with Vazquez, so I think we agree there.

 

I agree with you but did not see that in your original post.

[cp176]

I hate to appear to be the malcontent here but I think that our options at first base will be better without trying to turn Swihart into one. His biggest value will be either behind the plate or as a trading chip.

[Kimmi]

I hate to appear to be the malcontent here but I think that our options at first base will be better without trying to turn Swihart into one. His biggest value will be either behind the plate or as a trading chip.

 

I don't think the Sox have any intention of turning Swihart into a first baseman. That said, perhaps they have notions of trading Sam Travis?

[mvp 78]

I hate to appear to be the malcontent here but I think that our options at first base will be better without trying to turn Swihart into one. His biggest value will be either behind the plate or as a trading chip.

 

Who is the better option? Not sure Shaw is productive over the long term. No one else really in the picture at the moment.

[cp176]

I'm not sure that they are better options - Travis Shaw and Sam Travis. Of the two, it's anybody's guess. They both could be good options. Shaw - a little more power than both Swihart or Travis but from a pure hitter and first baseman - Sam Travis. It really is just an opinion - I don't want to see them trade either Betts or Bogaerts and Swihart just looks like the most valuable piece that could be moved without hurting us too much. I certainly wouldn't trade a player with his type of potential unless the return was real good as in that top of the rotation young arm. it looks like we have the players to cover both his potential both at the plate and in the field. To get something special i think that they will have to give up something special. If they decide to keep Swihart and move him to lets say first base, that is all good. If they do that, and still want to trade for a quality pitcher, I think the targets are going to be Betts or Bogaerts. I don't want to see that happen.

[sk7326]

I don't think the Sox have any intention of turning Swihart into a first baseman. That said, perhaps they have notions of trading Sam Travis?

 

Travis is possible, Shaw is possible. 1B is one of the easier positions to source anyway - even not considering Ramirez. Swihart was not very good defensively in year 1 - and the question becomes, how much of it was the other stuff - the promotion by necessity. We know Bogaerts had a shaky defensive first year with all that stuff thrown at him. Coming into next year, it seems like Swihart will probably be the 100 game catcher and Vasquez the 60 game one - and the injury to Vasquez provides more than sufficient merit to this idea. I think we should be used to the idea that sweeping pronouncements about 23 year olds - especially athletic ones - is a bit presumptuous.

[Kimmi]

Travis is possible, Shaw is possible. 1B is one of the easier positions to source anyway - even not considering Ramirez. Swihart was not very good defensively in year 1 - and the question becomes, how much of it was the other stuff - the promotion by necessity. We know Bogaerts had a shaky defensive first year with all that stuff thrown at him. Coming into next year, it seems like Swihart will probably be the 100 game catcher and Vasquez the 60 game one - and the injury to Vasquez provides more than sufficient merit to this idea. I think we should be used to the idea that sweeping pronouncements about 23 year olds - especially athletic ones - is a bit presumptuous.

 

It's my understanding that most catchers hit their stride defensively at a later age than any other position. Swihart simply was not ready to take over full time catching duties at the big league level. From the scouting reports I've seen, his defense should end up being very good.

[Kimmi]

Here's a summary of Sox roster moves:

 

RHP Ryan Cook was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.

OF/1B Allen Craig was outrighted to Triple-A Pawtucket.

RHP Alexi Ogando and RHP Jean Machi were outrighted from the major-league roster and will become free agents.

C Sandy Leon signed a one-year major-league contract, but was outrighted from the roster and accepted a Triple-A assignment.

RHPs Clay Buchholz (elbow strain), Koji Uehara (broken right wrist), Anthony Varvaro (elbow surgery) and Brandon Workman (Tommy John elbow surgery) and C Christian Vazquez (Tommy John elbow surgery) were reinstated from the 60-day disabled list and returned to the 40-man roster.

[jacksonianmarch]

Was Ogando expected to be a FA? He seemed like one piece to keep

[jacksonianmarch]

It's my understanding that most catchers hit their stride defensively at a later age than any other position. Swihart simply was not ready to take over full time catching duties at the big league level. From the scouting reports I've seen, his defense should end up being very good.

 

Your understanding isn't correct. Most catchers do take time to learn their pitchers, but few come into the league as terrible armed, terrible blocking catcher and improve significantly in that capacity. While Swihart could become a savant at game management, his upside defensively is limited

[Kimmi]

Your understanding isn't correct. Most catchers do take time to learn their pitchers, but few come into the league as terrible armed, terrible blocking catcher and improve significantly in that capacity. While Swihart could become a savant at game management, his upside defensively is limited

 

First off, when I talk about catcher defense, the most important component to me is how well the catcher handles the pitching staff, including game management and pitch framing. Blocking pitches in the dirt would be next. Caught stealing % is the area of a catcher's defense that I'm probably the least worried about. It is not worth as much in runs saved defensively as the ability to handle the staff. So yes, I think it's quite possible that a catcher could be 26, 27, or 28 years old before he has it all together defensively. Maybe his caught stealing won't improve a great deal, but his game management could and should.

 

Secondly, the scouting reports I've read have been favorable in terms of Swihart's defense. He is not supposed to be as good as Vazquez is, but he is supposed to be good enough defensively that when you combine that with his offense, he is supposed to be the better overall catcher between the two. He should be above average to good with some more development, not a defensive liability.

 

Thirdly, the guy is 23 and was forced into a situation well before he was ready. Seriously, are you going to write him off defensively based on such a small sample under less than ideal conditions? Please.

[cp176]

First off, when I talk about catcher defense, the most important component to me is how well the catcher handles the pitching staff, including game management and pitch framing. Blocking pitches in the dirt would be next. Caught stealing % is the area of a catcher's defense that I'm probably the least worried about. It is not worth as much in runs saved defensively as the ability to handle the staff. So yes, I think it's quite possible that a catcher could be 26, 27, or 28 years old before he has it all together defensively. Maybe his caught stealing won't improve a great deal, but his game management could and should.

 

Secondly, the scouting reports I've read have been favorable in terms of Swihart's defense. He is not supposed to be as good as Vazquez is, but he is supposed to be good enough defensively that when you combine that with his offense, he is supposed to be the better overall catcher between the two. He should be above average to good with some more development, not a defensive liability.

 

Thirdly, the guy is 23 and was forced into a situation well before he was ready. Seriously, are you going to write him off defensively based on such a small sample under less than ideal conditions? Please.

 

Everything points to Swihart having a pretty good upside for sure. But if the Sox decide to not use him behind the plate, he becomes just another prospect. His bat is replaceable and maybe even by a better one. Signing Leon has to have some significance. A great defensive (respecting all aspects) and a light hitting catcher is not unusual. If Vasquez is healthy, it makes the discussion moot. Hannigan and Leon can get it done if a package of Swihart and someone else brings us a young potential number one. All that said, I still like Swihart and would hate to see him traded. I just think that it is logical to include him if you are going to trade.I would prefer seeing him traded as opposed to either Moncada or Benintendi going.

[Kimmi]

Everything points to Swihart having a pretty good upside for sure. But if the Sox decide to not use him behind the plate, he becomes just another prospect. His bat is replaceable and maybe even by a better one. Signing Leon has to have some significance. A great defensive (respecting all aspects) and a light hitting catcher is not unusual. If Vasquez is healthy, it makes the discussion moot. Hannigan and Leon can get it done if a package of Swihart and someone else brings us a young potential number one. All that said, I still like Swihart and would hate to see him traded. I just think that it is logical to include him if you are going to trade.I would prefer seeing him traded as opposed to either Moncada or Benintendi going.

 

I pretty much agree with what you're saying. I would hate to lose Swihart, but with Betts and Bogaerts being mostly untouchable, plus our potential depth at catcher if Vazquez is healthy and he doesn't embarrass himself with the bat, trading Vazqez makes the most sense.

 

That said, here is the latest speculation from Gammons, which sounds like the Sox would rather not trade Swihart:

 

Peter Gammons recently published an article, stating that Chicago White Sox starter Chris Sale may be on the move if the Red Sox, or another team, offers up a position player package: “Even with 2015 draft choice Carson Fullmer coming out of Vanderbilt, the White Sox rotation is lefty-heavy, Sale is 26, cost effective, and they might be able to get a big position player package from Boston, Houston, the Cubs or Texas, teams with deep farm systems.” Gammons continues by quoting an anonymous National League general manager saying, “If Jerry Reinsdorf would be willing to listen […] Boston could play. The White Sox need catching and they love Blake Swihart. They want a young shortstop, and (20-year old) Javier Guerra is as good as there is around. There are a lot of prospects there.”

 

However, Gammons also allows for the fact that the Red Sox also love Swihart: “Right now, the plan is for [Christian] Vazquez to catch around 110 games and for Swihart to use his athleticism at several other positions.” Nobody knows where Vazquez’s arm is at the moment, considering he missed the entire 2015 season after having Tommy John surgery. Swihart could help rope in a top pitcher, but the questions on Vazquez make it hard to imagine Boston parting with the prospect-turned-starter who may be needed to be their catcher, after all.

 

Does that mean Swihart for Sale? Maybe; however, the way that the Red Sox are evaluating Swihart’s skill set against their team needs, it sounds pretty unlikely.

[cp176]

I pretty much agree with what you're saying. I would hate to lose Swihart, but with Betts and Bogaerts being mostly untouchable, plus our potential depth at catcher if Vazquez is healthy and he doesn't embarrass himself with the bat, trading Vazqez makes the most sense.

 

That said, here is the latest speculation from Gammons, which sounds like the Sox would rather not trade Swihart:

 

I read that article this morning. Good to see Guerra getting some print. The key to this piece for me is the expression "right now". If Vasquez can't come back healthy, Swihart is needed. If he can, I think that they will trade Swihart if they can. They have a number of very good young players who can produce at the plate as well as Swihart has. I don't see him as any more valuable than Moncada, Benintendi. Travis or Shaw unless they intend to catch him full time.

[Dojji]

Just a note to Jacksonianmarch, Swihart does not have a bad arm. In fact his arm is considered a plus tool and his pop time is excellent. His problem right now is that in college he was a shortstop. He converted (back) to catcher after he was drafted, which has some big advantages since he doesn't have nearly as many reps on his knees, and being up to the task of a middle infield position in college says loads about his athleticism, but it does mean Swihart is extremely light on experience and has had to be a fast learner to rise through the ranks as quickly as he has.

 

As he's risen through those ranks his athletic skills and defensive toolset have been lauded, his pop times were excellent and he's even got some base stealing speed as we saw from the 4 bases he stole this year. But every summary I've seen on Swihart, the last sentence tends to begin "With a little more experience/polish/training/practice/reps."

 

He's a project only in the sense that he will need some coaching work done to bring the most out of his talent level, but that's true of a lot of inexperienced players. and the implication of his story as told in the prospect analysis is that Swihart has more to gain from experience alone than nearly any other catching prospect out there right now.

 

Again, he's been a very quick learner so far so there's plenty of room for hope.

 

Sidenote: Yes, Vazquez has a far better arm than Swihart. That's because there might be one catcher in the world with a better arm than Vazquez. Not sure how he stacks up against Yadi Molina but I'd take Vazquez over just about anyone else if he's healthy. Swihart still has as good an arm as a lot of other big league catchers and better than some. Where he could use some work is in his timing. Again, reps will help to solve this. He just needs to spend time doing his job and some good coaching with a strong catching instructor.

 

Sidenote 2: I really kind hope to hear that Swihart's been working with Varitek, who lived for years on exacrlt what Swihart needs now. Varitek lived as a smart catcher with limited tools but excellent brains and cunning. A guy like that has a lot to teach a toolsy high ceiling catcher like Swihart, here's hoping Swihart's willing and able to learn.

Edited November 8, 2015 by Dojji

[cp176]

Just a note to Jacksonianmarch, Swihart does not have a bad arm. In fact his arm is considered a plus tool and his pop time is excellent. His problem right now is that in college he was a shortstop. He converted (back) to catcher after he was drafted, which has some big advantages since he doesn't have nearly as many reps on his knees, and being up to the task of a middle infield position in college says loads about his athleticism, but it does mean Swihart is extremely light on experience and has had to be a fast learner to rise through the ranks as quickly as he has.

 

As he's risen through those ranks his athletic skills and defensive toolset have been lauded, his pop times were excellent and he's even got some base stealing speed as we saw from the 4 bases he stole this year. But every summary I've seen on Swihart, the last sentence tends to begin "With a little more experience/polish/training/practice/reps."

 

He's a project only in the sense that he will need some coaching work done to bring the most out of his talent level, but that's true of a lot of inexperienced players. and the implication of his story as told in the prospect analysis is that Swihart has more to gain from experience alone than nearly any other catching prospect out there right now.

 

Again, he's been a very quick learner so far so there's plenty of room for hope.

 

Sidenote: Yes, Vazquez has a far better arm than Swihart. That's because there might be one catcher in the world with a better arm than Vazquez. Not sure how he stacks up against Yadi Molina but I'd take Vazquez over just about anyone else if he's healthy. Swihart still has as good an arm as a lot of other big league catchers and better than some. Where he could use some work is in his footwork and fundamentals.

 

good post - A very positive situation for the Sox to be in.

[vjcsmoke]

It's a very interesting winter meeting transition time for the Red Sox.

Chris Sale would be an amazing get. He is proven in the AL and his numbers have generally improved each year.

Only 26 and entering his prime, he's already a 4 time all-star and has sported a 5:1 SO/Walk ratio over the course of his career.

Even more importantly he has performed very well against AL East teams.

 

There's less uncertainty with acquiring a Chris Sale than acquiring an NL pitcher of similar status/talent level.

 

That being said, Swihart is a valuable piece to give up, however I'm starting to think you've got to give up something great to get something great in return.

What will our new GM Dombrowski do?