Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[User Name]

Buchholz has an exexution problem. As much as I am pro-stats, there are some things they simply can't detect, like Buch's tendency to groove pitches in the middle of the strike zone as soon as he loses his tempo. Check his strike zone analysis if you don't believe me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hughes was like that when he was on our team. His FIP would be solid but the production not so much. It's all about command both in and out of the strike zone. Buch seems to turtle when things get rough, which is no what you want to see out of your opening day starter

[User Name]

Jacko, wanna know a surefire way to prove you're right about something? If you agree with me on it.

[Kimmi]

Don't jump yet Spud. Things are never as bad as they look when a team is playing like this. We will not have 3 starters hitting under .200. The starting pitching will not have a 5.63 ERA. Plus, the rest of the division is a pile of manure.

 

Well said.

[Kimmi]

Shut the f*** up. You've spent the last five seasons providing arguments as to why Lester was never ace-caliber. Get out of here with this ********.

 

It's amazing how great Sox players become once they leave the Sox. LOL

 

And I have to say, I misjudged Jacko. I gave him too much credit.

 

Jacko, you disappoint me.

[Kimmi]

Higher AAV for less years so you only pay for a player's prime years. It's just not rocket science.

 

Such an easy concept, and yet, so difficult for some to understand.

[Kimmi]

One of the weird quirks about Buchholz' season ...

 

his K-rate is UP (27.9%), his walks are down (6.9%) and his FIP is actually outstanding (2.97). and the batted ball statistics are basically identical to his norms. The .407 BABIP has been the real bugaboo. I am not going to say this is all luck or anything - but Buchholz has the ERA of a terrible pitcher with the fundamentals of a pretty good one.

 

The entire rotation has underperformed its peripheals. The should start to settle down here soon. I know it's hard to put any faith in Buchholz to come around, but it's just so difficult to understand why he can't pitch to his potential, especially when we've seen those flashes of brilliance.

[TedWilliams101]

How about consistency? Because it's convenient for the sake of whining, it's like 2011 (imploded), 2012 (sucked), 2013 (right above league average, but good playoffs SSS) never happened. Thos straws.

 

How about consistency. A pitcher who year in year out gives you 200+ innings of 3.60 ERA in a high-pressure town, is legendary in the playoffs with two championships. Talk about splitting hairs with one bad season... OMG, he had a bad end of 2011. Small sample size? You are the same person who criticizes people for complaining early in the year over a small sample size, yet you turn around and use the same argument. Seriously, one bad month is your reason why Lester is worse than those guys? How about consistency. Which of those guys has put up multiple years of great pitching? which of those guys has performed in the playoffs? which of those guys have shown they can handle pressure? Lets talk about consistence, please.

[User Name]

How about consistency. A pitcher who year in year out gives you 200+ innings of 3.60 ERA in a high-pressure town, is legendary in the playoffs with two championships. Talk about splitting hairs with one bad season... OMG, he had a bad end of 2011. Small sample size? You are the same person who criticizes people for complaining early in the year over a small sample size, yet you turn around and use the same argument. Seriously, one bad month is your reason why Lester is worse than those guys? How about consistency. Which of those guys has put up multiple years of great pitching? which of those guys has performed in the playoffs? which of those guys have shown they can handle pressure? Lets talk about consistence, please.

 

Ignore the made-up BS for a while, and let's focus on the facts.

 

200 IP of 3.60 ERA is: A) Not an ace. B ) Not worth 155 million, ESPECIALLY not on the wrong side of 30. It's that simple.

[iortiz]

Ignore the made-up BS for a while, and let's focus on the facts.

 

200 IP of 3.60 ERA is: A) Not an ace. B ) Not worth 155 million, ESPECIALLY not on the wrong side of 30. It's that simple.

 

He has 2 Y of 5+ WAR (ace type), two more 4+ (No. 1), and one around in the middle of 3-4 (No. 2 type) at 200+ IP in all of those Ys. That's a pretty good sample of what this guy is capable of. In my book this mean proved No. 1. arm. How many of that list has this track record AND his durability?. Sure, he had a couple of "down" years posting WARs around 2.5+, (No. 2 type in Kimmi's book LOL!) but putting in context, those numbers are Porcello's best numbers and who is making 80+. The other fact is that he posted his best numbers just last year, which suggest that he is a very good shape and still in his prime, so the age is not a concern.

 

As I said, Durabilty + excellence through 9 Y begining your 30s is pretty rare to see. So, 155 M given the market + his track record sounds like a bargain to me.

[Spudboy]

Ignore the made-up BS for a while, and let's focus on the facts.

 

200 IP of 3.60 ERA is: A) Not an ace. B ) Not worth 155 million, ESPECIALLY not on the wrong side of 30. It's that simple.

 

The Sox have their own way of establishing value. They ascribed a value to Lester and would not go beyond it. Good for them.

 

Who needs big ticket aging non-productive players?

[iortiz]

Plus, another "intangible" is that he was already proved in this environment.

[User Name]

He has 2 Y of 5+ WAR (ace type), two more 4+ (No. 1), and one around in the middle of 3-4 (No. 2 type) at 200+ IP in all of those Ys. That's a pretty good sample of what this guy is capable of. In my book this mean proved No. 1. arm. How many of that list has this track record AND his durability?. Sure, he had a couple of "down" years posting WARs around 2.5+, (No. 2 type in Kimmi's book LOL!) but putting in context, those numbers are Porcello's best numbers and who is making 80+. The other fact is that he posted his best numbers just last year, which suggest that he is a very good shape and still in his prime, so the age is not a concern.

 

As I said, Durabilty + excellence through 9 Y begining your 30s is pretty rare to see. So, 155 M given the market + his track record sounds like a bargain to me.

 

Use common sense. Paying players for what they've done instead of what they're going to do is bad business. As players age, their performance erodes instead of improving. Also, I don't think you understand what "bargain" means. 155 million is above market value in both years and AAV for a player of Lester's stature. I find it quite funny how you defend this signing yet complain loudly about the Porcello one, which is actually below market-rate in years. This is why I say you don't understand baseball economics. I don't mean it as an insult. You just don't.

[iortiz]

Use common sense. Paying players for what they've done instead of what they're going to do is bad business. As players age, their performance erodes instead of improving. Also, I don't think you understand what "bargain" means. 155 million is above market value in both years and AAV for a player of Lester's stature. I find it quite funny how you defend this signing yet complain loudly about the Porcello one, which is actually below market-rate in years. This is why I say you don't understand baseball economics. I don't mean it as an insult. You just don't.

 

1. I pay for what happened which likely suggest me what will happen when a guy still has enough gas in his tank. Not otherwise. You do not pay for a track record of mediocre numbers, hoping excellence just because he is young. Look at Papelbon, pretty similar case at the time (excellence + durability) and still like the good wines, posting ridiculous ERAs and saving bunches of games AND Still Durable as I projected.

 

2. I just showed you his numbers, why do you refuse to accept that he is a True No.1 and still relatively young and at his prime. You think he is not a bargain? Fine!, Please name 5 pitchers who are making less money with his track record AND durability at 30 or less. I'll wait.

 

3. A DR% below 2 digits doesn't justify high AVV for mid-term contracts for mediocre pitchers, sorry, mid-rotation guys like Porcello unless he improves, say at 3-4 WAR range (No. 2 type). That's the drum I've been beating, nothing more, nothing less, reason why I offered a public bet (for fun). Engineering Economics apply regardless the industry when cash flow is on the table. This is why I say you do not understand the time value of money; you just don't. I do not mean it as an insult either.

[TedWilliams101]

Use common sense. Paying players for what they've done instead of what they're going to do is bad business. As players age, their performance erodes instead of improving. Also, I don't think you understand what "bargain" means. 155 million is above market value in both years and AAV for a player of Lester's stature. I find it quite funny how you defend this signing yet complain loudly about the Porcello one, which is actually below market-rate in years. This is why I say you don't understand baseball economics. I don't mean it as an insult. You just don't.

 

Porcello might be below market-rate in years, but NO ONE has given a player $20 million a year with less of a track record. Not even close. And lets not pretend were talking about a different sport. It's baseball. There's no real cap. I'd rather a team overspend on a proven winner then pay market value on an unproven commodity. Lets not pretend this is the NFL where economics actually matters. But that's not even the issue, because Lester wasn't overpaid, he was paid exactly his market value.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello might be below market-rate in years, but NO ONE has given a player $20 million a year with less of a track record. Not even close.

 

What about Homer Bailey? 6 years and 105 million. That's 17.5 million a year, and over 20 million more in guaranteed money.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you can make a pretty good case that Porcello's extension is more team-friendly than Bailey's was.

[User Name]

Porcello might be below market-rate in years, but NO ONE has given a player $20 million a year with less of a track record. Not even close. And lets not pretend were talking about a different sport. It's baseball. There's no real cap. I'd rather a team overspend on a proven winner then pay market value on an unproven commodity. Lets not pretend this is the NFL where economics actually matters. But that's not even the issue, because Lester wasn't overpaid, he was paid exactly his market value.

 

The amount of stuff you're making up here is staggering. Let me attack this point-by-point:

 

The Sox overpaid Porcello in money to underpay in years. This is not rocket science and it's not something that's even worth arguing about. It's the Sox' strategy to avoid paying pitchers past their prime. No matter how much you (or anyone else) wants to whine about it, it's a wise business strategy for a team with this kind of money. You pay a premium to avoid clogging up a roster spot long term with an aging player, because in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't hurt you as much as it would hurt, say, the Rays. It's simple.

 

Lester is not an ace, and he's exiting his prime. He's exactly the kind of pitcher you don't pay 25 mill a year for six years. Recent late-contract implosions from star pitchers Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are very good barometers for what Lester's last 2-3 years may look like. He's high-risk, and overpaid in terms of both years and money.

 

That's not his market value, that's the market value of a pitcher who's both better and younger than Lester.

[User Name]

On another note, the idiocy of "proven performers past their prime" is going away fast, because it's proven to be the dumbest possible way to build a roster.

 

You want a good example of this: Look at the Phillies roster. Just a couple of contracts one or two years too long and that team is terrible.

[Northern Star]

It's amazing how great Sox players become once they leave the Sox. LOL

 

And I have to say, I misjudged Jacko. I gave him too much credit.

 

Jacko, you disappoint me.

 

Kimmi

All-Star

 

Join Date

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That's more than enough time to get a proper reading on Jacko.

[User Name]

Kimmi

All-Star

 

Join Date

Jan 2015

Posts

1,423

 

That's more than enough time to get a proper reading on Jacko.

 

Aces.

[Northern Star]

What about Homer Bailey? 6 years and 105 million. That's 17.5 million a year, and over 20 million more in guaranteed money.

 

Incidentally, with a name like that he really chose the wrong profession. Should have been a position player.

[iortiz]

Porcello might be below market-rate in years, but NO ONE has given a player $20 million a year with less of a track record. Not even close. And lets not pretend were talking about a different sport. It's baseball. There's no real cap. I'd rather a team overspend on a proven winner then pay market value on an unproven commodity. Lets not pretend this is the NFL where economics actually matters. But that's not even the issue, because Lester wasn't overpaid, he was paid exactly his market value.

FG uses a DR% of 4. Bell brought a DR% around 7, then he ran a cash flow around 5%. All those DRs% won't likely cover the salary inflation even at Y #4 of his contract since the AVV is too high for a mid-rotation guy who has a contract which is not that long, unless he improves his suggested track record.

[Bellhorn04]

With Lester's contract there is no potential upside. You're basically praying like hell he can maintain his current level going forward.

 

With Porcello there is some potential upside because of his age and trending. There's potential downside too, of course.

 

Doing comparisons involves a lot of different factors.

 

Lester's contract broke through a barrier because it was by far the most money ever given to a guy who has not clearly been a #1.

[a700hitter]

With Lester's contract there is no potential upside. You're basically praying like hell he can maintain his current level going forward.

 

With Porcello there is some potential upside because of his age and trending. There's potential downside too, of course.

 

Doing comparisons involves a lot of different factors.

 

Lester's contract broke through a barrier because it was by far the most money ever given to a guy who has not clearly been a #1.

 

Porcello needs to improve his performance to be worth his contract. Lester needs to maintain his level of performance to be worth his contract. That is another way of looking at it.

[iortiz]

Porcello needs to improve his performance to be worth his contract. Lester needs to maintain his level of performance to be worth his contract. That is another way of looking at it.

Yup. Lester needs in terms of WAR something around 4-5 and Porcello 3-4.

[iortiz]

With Lester's contract there is no potential upside. You're basically praying like hell he can maintain his current level going forward.

 

With Porcello there is some potential upside because of his age and trending. There's potential downside too, of course.

 

Doing comparisons involves a lot of different factors.

 

Lester's contract broke through a barrier because it was by far the most money ever given to a guy who has not clearly been a #1.

 

Lester has posted several years No. 1 type numbers in terms of ERA, WAR, etc. and furthermore where those numbers count... In POs .On the other hand, one year of good performance do not make it a trend.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester has posted several years No. 1 type numbers in terms of ERA, WAR, etc. and furthermore where those numbers count... In POs .On the other hand, one year of good performance do not make it a trend.

 

Porcello was showing a lot of improvement in 2013, before the breakout season in 2014.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello needs to improve his performance to be worth his contract. Lester needs to maintain his level of performance to be worth his contract. That is another way of looking at it.

 

Fair enough. Historically, it's been very difficult for pitchers of Lester's age to maintain their performance for long. He could be an exception, certainly. I think Epstein said something about thinking Lester could age like Pettitte.

[User Name]

He could, and if he does, his AAV will be market value by the third year of the contract if current trends hold steady. I also disagree that Porcello needs to improve his performance to be worth his contract. His 2014 season was worth in excess of the $20 million he'll be paid next year. If he can even approach those levels for the remainder of his contract, he'll be well worth the money.