Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Spudboy]

Boop

[iortiz]

But I think you hit on the disagreement. Using a basic discounted return on investment idea, you do have to project a growth rate in the inflows. That's what the Red Sox were doing - because of where he is as a 26 year old. Now if you think that is not likely, that certainly is a reasonable POV. I happen to disagree because 26 year olds improve all the time.

 

Growth/variable rates through the life of a project make sense when the excersise is long, at least 10 Y I would say. A simple compound discount rate represents pretty well the behavior of a cash flow of a given excersise when the time is under 10 Y.

 

On the other hand, as you said, the Sox are expecting this guy improves because his age, sox defense or whatever the thought is behind, but not to perform as his track record suggests (2.5 WAR/4+ ERA).

 

IMO this guy doesn't have the stuff to survive in ERAs under 4 in the coming future reason why I offered that bet, and reason why I think this commitment is horrible . Of course still to be seen how this ends up.

Edited May 2, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Anyone who would say they would take Porcine Porcello or Smiley Miley over Jon Lester this year, next year or the year after that is out of their f***ing minds. Lester is a proven two time WS winner, our best pitcher the last half-dozen years and a qualified ace. Porcy and Smiley are neither, never have been and never will be. Stop trying to hand the god damn front office a life line. They screwed up big time not resigning Lester and I said if before, say it now and will say in again when I return in a month, that neither of those two mediocrities can tough Lester as a pitcher.

 

Porcello is 3 steps downstairs from Lester in my books. He is a 4+ ERA pitcher with horrible SO/9 rates.

[mvp 78]

Lester is a 4+ ERA pitcher right now. Fact!

[iortiz]

Israel my friend, as you know by now I'm signing off for a month as I did in 2012 and last season. When I got back both years the team was even worse than when I left but what really pisses me off is that we have posters on this board who claimed they would raise hell if the front office didn't go out and get us that ace and admonished me for being pre-mature about it. That was unadulterated ******** because I knew when it didn't come to pass they would worm their way into an acceptance of what the FO did. You didn't, 700 didn't, I didn't and some others didn't either if you read some of the game threads. Right now our rotation is solid s***, our offense is either way overrated or we have a pile of chokers who can't come through when we need a hit or two the most.. And this stuff of comparing those turds we got to Lester is sickening to the core. None of our rotation save Pukehholz has ever been a WS winner and Clay only because he won on the team. His contribution the second half of '13 and in the WS was s*** on rye. Lester was a two time WS winner and he is now better than anyone we have, he will be better next year and the year after that. What f***ing good is it to say, oh well, we have them until they turn 30-31 if in that interim we have a pack of near last place finishes?

 

There is an excellent chance we will be in last place again on June 2, and you can bet that some of us here will be declaring open season on the Red Sox front office, ownership, manager and team. We stink right now.

 

Well Fred, some posters like UN? will always see all like a rainbow regarding the Sox and always will try justify the thing like the pitching, no matter what, it is what it is.

 

Listen, this thread is like blasphemy here Fred LOL!

 

Beyond the debate, unfortunately the answer to the question which I used to start the thread is going to be likely Yes at the end of the season, we'll see though.

[Bellhorn04]

According to FG, Porcello is a Solid Starter in terms of WAR. Wonder how many solid starters are making 20 M these days. FG use a 4% rate to calculate the inflation in order to project salaries, if true, his contract in terms of NPV is around 72 M. Once again, how many solid starters are/will make 18 M in the next 4 years.

 

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

 

iortiz, you've referenced FanGraphs several times now in your arguments about Porcello. But did you read this FanGraphs article that Kimmi linked to earlier? It was written before Porcello signed the extension. It covers a lot of the stuff we've been talking about. It projects his free agent payday at 6 years/$108 million.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/

[Bellhorn04]

In that article it says total MLB payrolls will have grown from about $3 billion in 2012 to $4 billion in 2016. I calculate that as an average inflation rate of about 7.5%.

[iortiz]

iortiz, you've referenced FanGraphs several times now in your arguments about Porcello. But did you read this FanGraphs article that Kimmi linked to earlier? It was written before Porcello signed the extension. It covers a lot of the stuff we've been talking about. It projects his free agent payday at 6 years/$108 million.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/

Hi Bell, I haven't read it, I will. On the other hand as I said, one thing is projections and other what the market is willing to pay and what he will end up posting. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but how many SP with a track record of an ERA of 4+/2.5 WAR got a contract like this. Furthermore, and that's my opinion, I do not see any team throwing at him this contract if he posts what his track record suggests 4+ERA/2.5 WAR at the end of the season which is what at very best he will end up posting. On the other hand, if he improves in terms of WAR what a good player according to FG suggests, and if he is capable to keep his ERA aroumd 3.5 like he did last year, this contract will be fine. The debate about Porcello is if he can post that. IMO the answer is no. Probably the majority around here think that he will and easily, reason why I offered that bet which given the projections is really,really friendly for those who believe in those projections.

Edited May 3, 2015 by iortiz

[User Name]

iortiz doesn't care about facts or logic. FACT!!!!

[iortiz]

In that article it says total MLB payrolls will have grown from about $3 billion in 2012 to $4 billion in 2016. I calculate that as an average inflation rate of about 7.5%.

 

I used 4% since FG use this rate to project salaries. Let me make the math about this and project the NPV.

[iortiz]

iortiz doesn't care about facts or logic. FACT!!!!

 

Are you done bullying Fred? What happened?. Also, didn't you have on ignore?, what happened? isn't for pussies anymore? I'm confused. Make sense! Stop whining! What in the hell are you even talking about? ...

[mvp 78]

Bullying Fred? Lolz...

 

Fred got pissed off and deeply offended that someone called him a "goober." Fact!

 

Fred regularly calls people "*******s." Fact!

[User Name]

fred and iortiz have exactly the same M.O: Dish it out but can't take it. Get the f*** outta here with that ********. iortiz,maybe you need a hiatus too.

[iortiz]

Bullying Fred? Lolz...

 

Fred got pissed off and deeply offended that someone called him a "goober." Fact!

 

Fred regularly calls people "*******s." Fact!

 

Naah he calls *******s to players and some of the FO, on the other hand UN? Insults other posters a diestra y siniestra, FACT!

[iortiz]

Lester is a 4+ ERA pitcher right now. Fact!

 

I would like to make you a bet about Lester vs Porcello but I do not want you get offended, since your are kind of sensitive.

Edited May 3, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

The hatefest goes on.

[iortiz]

Yup, U? Loves it. U? Said that he hates me more than 100 suns burning or something like that. Probably Fred is at 80 Suns and my friend A700 at 60 Suns according to his hateometer LOL! Edited May 3, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

I would like to make you a bet about Lester vs Porcello but I do not want you get offended, since your are kind of sensitive.

 

I'm not sensetive. You're just too ficking dumb to notice when you are being a sexist twerp.

[User Name]

Why do you want to solve everything with bets? Hasn't half the site (including a mod) told you to shut the f*** up with the goddamn bets? Jesus Christ dude.

[Spudboy]

I'm not sensetive. You're just too ficking dumb to notice when you are being a sexist twerp.

 

I say this as your friend. You misspelled a word.

 

But I think that I may be smart enough to know what you meant to type.

[Spudboy]

Chorizo envy.

[iortiz]

I'm not sensetive. You're just too ficking dumb to notice when you are being a sexist twerp.

 

hahaa there's no doubt you are sensitive.

[iortiz]

Why do you want to solve everything with bets? Hasn't half the site (including a mod) told you to shut the f*** up with the goddamn bets? Jesus Christ dude.

 

Half of the site? Other than u and mvp nobody else. On the other hand I made an open offer, some accepted some not.

 

What happened with your reading comp skills? Stop whining! What are you even talking about?....

[jacksonianmarch]

Hey guys. (JM grabs a beverage and popcorn). So you're debating the loss of Lester again, huh (JM sits back and kicks feet up to watch the show).

[mvp 78]

Half of the site? Other than u and mvp nobody else. On the other hand I made an open offer, some accepted some not.

 

What happened with your reading comp skills? Stop whining! What are you even talking about?....

 

And Pal and Spud and YOTN...

[User Name]

Well Jacko, we've known each other for a while. We've both certainly grown and matured in our understanding of the game. While I remain an aggressive *******, and you a generally obnoxious, needling Yankee fan, there is one thing I am certain the both of us can agree on: Some Red Sox fans, A) Aren't very smart, and Just can't seem to let some s*** go.

[User Name]

And Pal and Spud and YOTN...

 

And kreinbihl34, and one of the newer guys.

[mvp 78]

Nobody else though!

[mvp 78]

Also, reading comp skills. Lol...

 

Like UN ever needed someone else to proofread/write his posts... Lol...

[Kimmi]

About the whole betting thing, I don't mind a harmless sig bet, not that I would ever feel the need to propose one. However, since a bet was offered to me, and I am confident enough in my opinion of Porcello, I accepted the bet. Not a problem.

 

What I don't like is the insinuation by a couple of posters here that if one is not willing to accept a bet, that he/she is a chicken, a wuss, less of a man, less of a person, or otherwise has some type of character flaw. Or that said person doesn't really believe what he/she is saying. Some people just don't bet, for any number of reasons. It's as simple as that. Trying to prove one's manliness through betting is kind of silly, IMO.