2014 Offseason Thread

[Youk Of The Nation]

Lol. From MLB Trade Rumors:

 

"Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is expected to receive a bonus that will absolutely shatter the previous record for an amateur player — international or domestic — and intrigue surrounding him only figures to grow in the coming months. Here’s the latest on the 19-year-old phenom…

 

Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has an outstanding breakdown of not only Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala yesterday, but of the puzzling, seemingly inexplicable way in which he came to leave Cuba. McDaniel writes that Moncada was seemingly granted permission by the Cuban government to leave the country for Guatemala and is free to return and leave again as he wishes (a bizarre phenomenon also noted earlier this month by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez). Beyond that, Moncada is being represented by a CPA from St. Petersburg who has never negotiated a baseball contract before and will not enlist the help of any veteran MLB agents. In fact, two agents from the Boras Corporation attempted to attend Moncada’s showcase and were not only denied access, but escorted off the premises by armed guards, McDaniel reports. Moncada’s agent has no desire to make this a story about himself and therefore was not named, McDaniel adds."

 

Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!! Boras agents escorted away by armed guards!!! This sounds sort of like an old Chevy Chase movie!

 

An apt analogy, as Chevy Chase is usually escorted out by armed guards when he shows up anywhere these days.

 

Does anyone have an opinion on this Moncada guy? Is he really supposed to be this good?

[sk7326]

An apt analogy, as Chevy Chase is usually escorted out by armed guards when he shows up anywhere these days.

 

Does anyone have an opinion on this Moncada guy? Is he really supposed to be this good?

 

Hard to have any sort of opinion - in his ESPN Chat, Keith Law took a question on him fwiw:

 

xavier (texas)

 

How serious a prospect is Cuban defector Yoan Moncada?

Klaw (1:11 PM)

 

Stud. I believe he'll get $30 million-plus, even with the 100% penalty. Legit power from both sides, plus runner, very physical kid, but sounds like no chance he stays at shortstop. Didn't face live pitching in the workout yesterday, so I imagine some teams will want to see him do that before laying out that kind of cash - but he's going to get paid.

[Spudboy]

It's hard for me to believe that Nick Markakis is likely going to "settle" for 4/40 -4/48 in resigning withe the O's.

I'm also dismayed at the opinion that Markakis is a below average fielder. I have no idea how that idea got started although I suspect that what I see as flawed defensive metrics may have something to do with it. Absurd. The guy is consistently a very good defensive outfielder.

 

I still think that the Sox outfield is a total mess. Other than the absence of big power, I think that Markakis would be a great fix with the Sox. He plays very good defense in RF and never looks lost at Fenway. He is a LHH. He has a good on base skills and is reasonably productive.

 

I know that it's likely that he signs with Baltimore again. I just see the Sox outfield as a jumbled mess of malcontents, aging, injured veterans, platoon hitters, and under performing or unproven rookie types. Even with the great promise of Betts.

 

I see Cespedes as gone at some point. I think Victorino's best days are probably behind him. Castillo is unproven. My Binky Nava does not hit lefties very well. Craig is a mystery. Bradley needs to learn how to hit in AAA or with another team.

 

If I'm the Sox I take a look at signing this proven AL East player at what would seem to be very reasonable terms. A 4 year deal on a 31 year old RF of this pedigree would seem to be a good move both defensively and offensively.

 

Of course it won't happen.

[sk7326]

It's hard for me to believe that Nick Markakis is likely going to "settle" for 4/40 -4/48 in resigning withe the O's.

I'm also dismayed at the opinion that Markakis is a below average fielder. I have no idea how that idea got started although I suspect that what I see as flawed defensive metrics may have something to do with it. Absurd. The guy is consistently a very good defensive outfielder.

 

I still think that the Sox outfield is a total mess. Other than the absence of big power, I think that Markakis would be a great fix with the Sox. He plays very good defense in RF and never looks lost at Fenway. He is a LHH. He has a good on base skills and is reasonably productive.

 

I know that it's likely that he signs with Baltimore again. I just see the Sox outfield as a jumbled mess of malcontents, aging, injured veterans, platoon hitters, and under performing or unproven rookie types. Even with the great promise of Betts.

 

I see Cespedes as gone at some point. I think Victorino's best days are probably behind him. Castillo is unproven. My Binky Nava does not hit lefties very well. Craig is a mystery. Bradley needs to learn how to hit in AAA or with another team.

 

If I'm the Sox I take a look at signing this proven AL East player at what would seem to be very reasonable terms. A 4 year deal on a 31 year old RF of this pedigree would seem to be a good move both defensively and offensively.

 

Of course it won't happen.

 

Tricky thing with Markakis is that he has - between his injuries and performance - has underachieved relative to the tools. He was a legit stud in 2008, but has probably been an average guy (and possibly a fantasy team killer if you are into that sort of thing). He does get on base - and last year was an ok bounceback after being replacement level in 2013. But his inability to play CF means his thumpless bat looks much worse.

[Spudboy]

Still, Markakis would be the best defensive player in the Sox outfield ( assuming that Bardley is not there ). And I do not really have the confidence in all of the metrics that seem to indicate somehow that he is only or has recently been replacement level. That is nonsense to me.

 

But it's a non-issue because the Sox have no interest.

[User Name]

An apt analogy, as Chevy Chase is usually escorted out by armed guards when he shows up anywhere these days.

 

Does anyone have an opinion on this Moncada guy? Is he really supposed to be this good?

 

He's supposed to be better than Abreu, but that's a lot of hype for a guy that virtually no one knows anything about.

[User Name]

It's hard for me to believe that Nick Markakis is likely going to "settle" for 4/40 -4/48 in resigning withe the O's.

I'm also dismayed at the opinion that Markakis is a below average fielder. I have no idea how that idea got started although I suspect that what I see as flawed defensive metrics may have something to do with it. Absurd. The guy is consistently a very good defensive outfielder.

 

I still think that the Sox outfield is a total mess. Other than the absence of big power, I think that Markakis would be a great fix with the Sox. He plays very good defense in RF and never looks lost at Fenway. He is a LHH. He has a good on base skills and is reasonably productive.

 

I know that it's likely that he signs with Baltimore again. I just see the Sox outfield as a jumbled mess of malcontents, aging, injured veterans, platoon hitters, and under performing or unproven rookie types. Even with the great promise of Betts.

 

I see Cespedes as gone at some point. I think Victorino's best days are probably behind him. Castillo is unproven. My Binky Nava does not hit lefties very well. Craig is a mystery. Bradley needs to learn how to hit in AAA or with another team.

 

If I'm the Sox I take a look at signing this proven AL East player at what would seem to be very reasonable terms. A 4 year deal on a 31 year old RF of this pedigree would seem to be a good move both defensively and offensively.

 

Of course it won't happen.

 

Yet UZR loved Markakis last year. And i think Victorino is still a better OF than Markakis defensively, even though Markakis is the better player and better bet to stay healthy right now.

[Palodios]

Where do these guys come from? It seemed like we used to know about the superstars in other countries/leagues, but now we suddenly have waves of top talent players coming from virtually nowhere.

[sk7326]

Still, Markakis would be the best defensive player in the Sox outfield ( assuming that Bardley is not there ). And I do not really have the confidence in all of the metrics that seem to indicate somehow that he is only or has recently been replacement level. That is nonsense to me.

 

But it's a non-issue because the Sox have no interest.

 

Well, in 2013, you were getting a .685 OPS from a right fielder ... without exceptional defense that is generally an unplayable performance level.

 

Victorino was .805 OPS with an exceptional defensive measurement season and that got you a downballot MVP candidate.

 

2014 Markakis did bounce back. A .342 OBP is value-added especially if the glove adds up. But if his glove is more "ok" than "great", then he needs to deliver more pop. Whatever he did do was good enough to be a 2-3 win guy.

[sk7326]

Where do these guys come from? It seemed like we used to know about the superstars in other countries/leagues, but now we suddenly have waves of top talent players coming from virtually nowhere.

 

Well, I think the Cubans have always been shrouded in mystery relative to other internationals. In the days of CBAs of yore, there was just more freedom and money for teams to chase in the DR and Colombia and Venezuela at various times. Since baseball is putting a cap on THOSE FAs, suddenly Cuba has moved up the ladder for FA hype.

[GomesBeard]

What's the best outfield for the Sox, using just the players they have today? Cespedes - Castillo - Victorino L to R with Betts/Nava as the back-ups?

[seabeachfred]

In the Hope against Hope department, Edes says that Lester and his agents are due to speak with Sox ownership "within hours". But then he and his agents are off to Chicago to talk with Theo.

 

At this point if the Sox are really serious about bringing Lester back, they should make a "no walk" offer. In sales terms this means that the Sox offer should be sufficient to prevent Lester from further testing the FA waters as in Chicago. Get it done now because letting him leave town again is a loser move that lessens the Sox chances of signing him.

 

I'm not a Sox Front Office "Fanboy". Nor am I one that will constantly bitch about them being cheap and stupid.

 

However, the Sox have misplayed the Lester issue big time. This is probably their last chance to make good.

 

The Red Sox have to make Lester an offer he cannot refuse and must do all they can to make it so enticing that he decides to come back to Boston and sign a contract without his reps going to Chicago because if they do Jon is as good as gone. And if he doesn't sign with the Cubs watch the Yankees suddenly step in with their mega bucks. The front office has screwed things up big time two of the past three off seasons and this time around they can afford no more ef ups. Get it done this time around.

[User Name]

What's the best outfield for the Sox, using just the players they have today? Cespedes - Castillo - Victorino L to R with Betts/Nava as the back-ups?

 

Betts is, right now, probably the best OF we have in terms of overall package. Unless they move him back to the IF, he's your starting CF.

[Palodios]

Betts is, right now, probably the best OF we have in terms of overall package. Unless they move him back to the IF, he's your starting CF.

 

Who has the better arm? I was the under impression that Castillo-CF/Betts-RF would be the better defensive outfield, but haven't seen much.

 

Welcome back, by the way.

[BSN07]

Where do these guys come from? It seemed like we used to know about the superstars in other countries/leagues, but now we suddenly have waves of top talent players coming from virtually nowhere.

I agree it's insane. It's like these guys don't exist until they defect. I get that we are do not have the same resources as ML teams but in this day in age to have nothing on most of these guys is weird. The money they are talking for this kid is incredible. I mean he must be an absolute stud(like Piege and Soler but better) for a team to pay 100% penalty that will be 10's of millions of dollars.

Betts is, right now, probably the best OF we have in terms of overall package. Unless they move him back to the IF, he's your starting CF.

 

Ya I'm thinking Betts is in CF if he's in the starting line up. But I could see some scenarios having Betts in RF.

 

Welcome back btw

Edited November 14, 2014 by BSN07

[Palodios]

I agree it's insane. It's like these guys don't exist until they defect. I get that we are do not have the same resources as ML teams but in this day in age to have nothing on most of these guys is weird. The money they are talking for this kid is incredible. I mean he must be an absolute stud(like Piege and Soler but better) for a team to pay 100% penalty that will be 10's of millions of dollars.

 

One of these days, Cuba and the U.S. are going to have an international crisis due to either scouts trying to stow away to getin to Cuba to watch games, or if baseball teams start using drones to watch Cuban baseball games.

 

Hell, the number of Cuban defectors is probably going to become an issue since it falls under human trafficking and a bunch of other ugly umbrellas.

[Dojji]

One of these days, the Cuban regime is going to grow the heck up and stop thumbing its nose at the US out of pure spite. When that happens I fully expect Cubans to no longer need to defect to play the game in the major leagues, and Cuba's big league presence will both expand and be a major source of Cuban national pride.

[sk7326]

Betts is, right now, probably the best OF we have in terms of overall package. Unless they move him back to the IF, he's your starting CF.

 

Yes - although I could see him being deployed in a Ben Zobrist (or Tony Phillips if you are an older fart like me) kind of way where he will get reps spelling all of the non 1B-C positions.

[Spudboy]

Where do these guys come from? It seemed like we used to know about the superstars in other countries/leagues, but now we suddenly have waves of allegedly top talent players coming from virtually nowhere.

 

I fixed that for you.

[Spudboy]

Yet UZR loved Markakis last year. And i think Victorino is still a better OF than Markakis defensively, even though Markakis is the better player and better bet to stay healthy right now.

 

I certainly agree that by virtue of his speed that Victorino is superior in some ways. Mostly because he can play CF if needed.

 

I don't really care much about most defensive metrics for reasons that you and I have discussed. This is clearly a case of believing what my eyes allow me to see which is Gold Glove like talent in right field by Markakis.

 

I'm not knowledgeable about the extent of his injuries. However, he has played a crap load of games for someone with injuries. When healthy he seems to be a great RF. Even if his OPS dips for a year or so. He has never been a power hitter anyway. One year at 23 HR is not the norm for him.

 

None of it matters. The Sox are not in play for his services anyway. I just saw an article about his negotiations with Baltimore and was taken by how cheap he is going for. With the uncertainty and shlock the Sox have in their outfield I began to wonder "what if?".

[Palodios]

I fixed that for you.

 

Allegedly? Just in the last few years we've seen Puig, Abreu, Cespedes, Soler and Castillo come over and earn monster contracts. Maybe it is too early to tell on Castillo and Soler -- who both had stats of .900+ OPS in small samples this year -- but the other three guys are 20 HR bats that seemingly just showed up.

[Spudboy]

One of these days, Cuba and the U.S. are going to have an international crisis due to either scouts trying to stow away to getin to Cuba to watch games, or if baseball teams start using drones to watch Cuban baseball games.

 

Hell, the number of Cuban defectors is probably going to become an issue since it falls under human trafficking and a bunch of other ugly umbrellas.

 

I really don't want to start a political discussion since that is always bad on this board and we don't need the acrimony.

 

However, I don't understand why the U.S. does not have normal relations with Cuba by now.

 

The guys in power in Cuba are really stupid. And so are the American politicians.

[BSN07]

Cuba is the new offensive hot spot. They've produced a couple good P's, but it seems like it's more hitter's coming out of there.

[BSN07]

I really don't want to start a political discussion since that is always bad on this board and we don't need the acrimony.

 

However, I don't understand why the U.S. does not have normal relations with Cuba by now.

 

The guys in power in Cuba are really stupid. And so are the American politicians.

 

Old habits die hard. It seems tho over the last couple years things seem to be softening a bit between the 2 nations. If I'm not mistaken,Americans can actually travel to Cuba now with just their passports and no special paperwork like there was needed in the past.

[Spudboy]

Allegedly? Just in the last few years we've seen Puig, Abreu, Cespedes, Soler and Castillo come over and earn monster contracts. Maybe it is too early to tell on Castillo and Soler -- who both had stats of .900+ OPS in small samples this year -- but the other three guys are 20 HR bats that seemingly just showed up.

 

I meant no harm in my comment Pal. I just feel that most of the Cuban players that I have seen, including some of the ones you have mentioned, do not have refined skills. Especially when playing defense. They may be very good athletes but non of them are what I deem superstars at this point. Maybe Abreu can put up gaudy numbers for a few more years and he can be a superstar. Certainly Puig, Cespedes, and Castillo are not there yet. Again, just my opinion based on what I have seen, not read.

[Palodios]

I meant no harm in my comment Pal. I just feel that most of the Cuban players that I have seen, including some of the ones you have mentioned, do not have refined skills. Especially when playing defense. They may be very good athletes but non of them are what I deem superstars at this point. Maybe Abreu can put up gaudy numbers for a few more years and he can be a superstar. Certainly Puig, Cespedes, and Castillo are not there yet. Again, just my opinion based on what I have seen, not read.

 

No offense taken or intended. I understand that you aren't a fan of many of these guys, but when in comes to raw numbers, these guys have taken the league by storm. Maybe Puig, Cespedes and Abreu haven't impressed you, but they have gotten a significant amount of attention from the league, hitting piles of home runs and rbis while being mostly unnoticed in international competition beforehand.

[Palodios]

I really don't want to start a political discussion since that is always bad on this board and we don't need the acrimony. normal relations with Cuba by now.

 

 

However, I don't understand why the U.S. does not have

The guys in power in Cuba are really stupid. And so are the American politicians.

 

I figure that there is a different between Politics and Current Event discussion. Politics has two sides that hate eachother and devolves to fights, whereas human trafficking and fascism are almost always bad.

[Spudboy]

No offense taken or intended. I understand that you aren't a fan of many of these guys, but when in comes to raw numbers, these guys have taken the league by storm. Maybe Puig, Cespedes and Abreu haven't impressed you, but they have gotten a significant amount of attention from the league, hitting piles of home runs and rbis while being mostly unnoticed in international competition beforehand.

 

I may become a fan of Abreu after I see him play a bunch more. As for the other two, My observations are not limited and are valid. None of them are superstars, yet.

 

I have seen way too much sloppy play by Puig and Cespedes to consider them upper tier players. I think that everyone makes too much of the highlight reel plays and don't look at the bulk of their performances when assessing their overall talent. And again, the defensive skills ( other than Eglesias ) are far from polished. I see a lot of unnecessary basket catches in the same games as I see poor judgment of fly balls, bad routes, and botched plays.

 

I can't say that about a group of players from any other country.

[jd98]

What's the best outfield for the Sox, using just the players they have today? Cespedes - Castillo - Victorino L to R with Betts/Nava as the back-ups?

 

Hmm, I'd go with Cespedes, Betts, Victorino, only because Castillo is the most unknown still. If Castillo is for real and plays like he did in September, then I just don't know. Nava also needs to play against most righties, and if Craig is healthy and productive, he needs to be full time too. So a related question, who ends up getting traded?

[sk7326]

Hmm, I'd go with Cespedes, Betts, Victorino, only because Castillo is the most unknown still. If Castillo is for real and plays like he did in September, then I just don't know. Nava also needs to play against most righties, and if Craig is healthy and productive, he needs to be full time too. So a related question, who ends up getting traded?

 

Cespedes has the best combination of contract and risk to deal - he can fetch a good return. (well, Betts is the best, but that's a non-starter) Craig's contract is attractive but he was so bad last year that it would be hard to get a decent return for him. Castillo COULD get something interesting in return (because if somebody really believes he is an average or above CF overall his contract is extremely reasonable) but I don't the Red Sox acquired him to flip.

 

I expect Bradley to be gone - he's a tremendous buy-low opportunity for a smart franchise and is crowded out. While I don't precisely expect Cespedes to be gone, the math of the outfielders might squeeze him out (unless there is a good pitcher deal which involves moving Napoli, which would relieve most of the logjam).