2014 Offseason Thread

[MNSoxChief102]

Chief, I will not try to counter what you just wrote but it does strike me that you are trying to give succor and cover to the front office and this is the fear I have that others will follow suit and do the same. Henry and Lucchino blew this one badly. You don't let your ace walk and then in the fall sign a totally defensive disaster like Ramirez to play a position he has never played before. Now if he hits 35-40 homers, hits 315 and drives in over 120 runs, well we'll see.

 

Not really. I could care less about the FO to be honest. They aren't as good as some people think they are but they're not as bad as some people think they are either. I'm just looking at it after the dust has settled and feel like all the hoopla over the supposed lowball offer is just hyperbole really. They made what they felt was a reasonable starting offer. Lester thought otherwise, bet big that he'd perform to higher standard, and won big in the end. Can't blame him and can't really blame the FO. It is what it is... we made a fair offer in FA or the decision would've never taken as long as it did.

[BSN07]

You really think he's going to only get $5 million more than Lester? I'll be shocked if that happens.

 

Scherzer is gonna get 175-200M. I hate admitting it but Boras usually finds his boob to get what he wants. And it makes no sense to pay 40M more than what they offered Lester for Scherzer.

[MJantomaso]

Who's next? Another top pitcher will whether a FA or in a trade will cost us dearly.

 

Lester is not a 25mil a year pitcher. The FO set a price for him and stuck to it. I honestly do not think Cueto or Latos will cost us dearly. To be honest, I'm sure deal could be done with a team that no one has been talking about. Everyone needs to stay patient. Theres no way Boston goes into the season with the rotation that they have now. It will get fixed, just wait.

[a700hitter]

Then they won't be getting Cueto either if that's the case. It would be absurd to trade either of those 2 for a 1 year rental. Cueto isn't taking a hometown extension offer either. If he's traded he's gonna want to go to FA and he will be right up in the 130-150M deals if he has a good walk year. I think Latos should be the top target on the Reds.

Latos is better than Leake.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester is not a 25mil a year pitcher. The FO set a price for him and stuck to it. I honestly do not think Cueto or Latos will cost us dearly. To be honest, I'm sure deal could be done with a team that no one has been talking about. Everyone needs to stay patient. Theres no way Boston goes into the season with the rotation that they have now. It will get fixed, just wait.

 

Why on earth would the Reds want to hand over Cueto this offseason without a lot of goodies in return?

[iortiz]

You really think he's going to only get $5 million more than Lester? I'll be shocked if that happens.

Probably interested teams will start at that amount.

 

Something around 175-200 gets the deal done IMO. The 1 M question is... Can we afford that amount of money?

Edited December 10, 2014 by iortiz

[MNSoxChief102]

They would have wrapped him up with a bow and a smile in March for $120 and it would have been considered high. It would have saved him from the stress of having to perform in a contract year and risk injury. That would have gotten it done without any doubt. Is it conjecture on my part, yes, but in March such an offer would have been uniformly considered as extravagant. That would not have been a discount. The Sox let the market develop and grow and some seasons the market can get ridiculously high. This was one of those seasons.

 

Last spring an offer of $120 million would have been excessively high. Of course it would've got it done. Same could be said for any player we've lost for that matter. The Sox wagered the market wouldn't change much and they lost because Lester went out and had a great walk year season. At least we got a solid trade chip in Cespedes for him. Most teams would be looking forward to a draft pick and 5 years of waiting for promise to develop in return.

[a700hitter]

You really think he's going to only get $5 million more than Lester? I'll be shocked if that happens.

If the Yankees and Dodgers don't pursue him, I don't think he will cost much more than Lester, especially with one of the big players, the Cubs out of the bidding.

[MNSoxChief102]

Scherzer is gonna get 175-200M. I hate admitting it but Boras usually finds his boob to get what he wants. And it makes no sense to pay 40M more than what they offered Lester for Scherzer.

 

Yep. Scherzer is worth at least 15% more than Lester given their overall track records IMO. That's $178 million at the very least. I suspect Boras will not even consider anything less than that to start and it will end up close to $200 million. When Scherzer turned down $144 million last spring, he told everyone what kind of money he really wanted... $200 million or bust.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Yankees and Dodgers don't pursue him, I don't think he will cost much more than Lester, especially with one of the big players, the Cubs out of the bidding.

 

Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Tigers may all be in on Scherzer.

 

The real question is how high the Sox will go on Shields, IMO.

[a700hitter]

Last spring an offer of $120 million would have been excessively high. Of course it would've got it done. Same could be said for any player we've lost for that matter. The Sox wagered the market wouldn't change much and they lost because Lester went out and had a great walk year season. At least we got a solid trade chip in Cespedes for him. Most teams would be looking forward to a draft pick and 5 years of waiting for promise to develop in return.

Yep, $120 million in March would have been excessively high, which is why I said that he could have been wrapped up for $110. The FO should be able to look forward and figure out how a market will develop. That's their job and they failed miserably.

[MNSoxChief102]

If the Yankees and Dodgers don't pursue him, I don't think he will cost much more than Lester, especially with one of the big players, the Cubs out of the bidding.

 

Do you really think they won't go hard after him? I know the Yanks are saying they're not in, but come on. It's New York... they always do this kind of s***. They'll come in when no one expects it and drop $180 million in his lap to think about.

[BSN07]

If the Yankees and Dodgers don't pursue him, I don't think he will cost much more than Lester, especially with one of the big players, the Cubs out of the bidding.

 

I think Boras will get more out of Detroit then Lester got and again it made no sense to pay Scherzer more.

 

Not directed at you a700, but where are all the Theo bashers with their "he sucks at free agency" signs? Lol

[User Name]

Why on earth would the Reds want to hand over Cueto this offseason without a lot of goodies in return?

 

The Reds' GM wants a LF and an SP prospect for one of his pitchers if he does trade them, noting the "1 year of control left" issue. Guess who has a 20+ homer OF and a bunch of blocked SP prospects just lyin' around......

[MNSoxChief102]

Yep, $120 million in March would have been excessively high, which is why I said that he could have been wrapped up for $110. The FO should be able to look forward and figure out how a market will develop. That's their job and they failed miserably.

 

No one could've predicted Lester would have the kind of season he had. Look at his career numbers... there's nothing to indicate he would go out with a complete performance from start to finish. Most every season he started poorly and then turned it on in the 2nd half. Last year was an aberration IMO. The Sox FO may have erred by underestimating Lester's desire in his walk year but most every FO would've done the same.

[a700hitter]

Yep. Scherzer is worth at least 15% more than Lester given their overall track records IMO. That's $178 million at the very least. I suspect Boras will not even consider anything less than that to start and it will end up close to $200 million. When Scherzer turned down $144 million last spring, he told everyone what kind of money he really wanted... $200 million or bust.

It depends on who is in on the bidding. If the Yankees or Dodgers don't join in, the bidding will not go that high with the Cubs out of the picture.

[User Name]

I think Boras will get more out of Detroit then Lester got and again it made no sense to pay Scherzer more.

 

Not directed at you a700, but where are all the Theo bashers with their "he sucks at free agency" signs? Lol

 

They'll be there if the contract becomes an albatross, which it likely will the last two years.

[iortiz]

If the Yankees and Dodgers don't pursue him, I don't think he will cost much more than Lester, especially with one of the big players, the Cubs out of the bidding.

 

Good point. Seems like only DET is seriously for him. Should we start a bidding war?...can we win this time?

[a700hitter]

No one could've predicted Lester would have the kind of season he had. Look at his career numbers... there's nothing to indicate he would go out with a complete performance from start to finish. Most every season he started poorly and then turned it on in the 2nd half. Last year was an aberration IMO. The Sox FO may have erred by underestimating Lester's desire in his walk year but most every FO would've done the same.

There are probably more recent examples of teams extending their aces than letting them get to free agency.

[Bellhorn04]

Scherzer is a pipe dream.

[User Name]

Yup, he ain't walking through that door. If they weren't willing to pay 150 for Lester, they ain't paying 200 for Scherzer.

[a700hitter]

Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Tigers may all be in on Scherzer.

 

The real question is how high the Sox will go on Shields, IMO.

We thought the Yankees would be in on Lester. Lefties make more sense in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are the wild card. If they are in on Scherzer, the bidding will go very high. The Dodgers have kershaw and Greinke. Scherzer would be a huge expensive luxury as a #3. If they are in the bidding with the Yankees, the Red Sox shouldn't even bother trying. If the Dodgers and Yankees aren't in and the Cubs are out, it will not get to $200 million.

[Palodios]

Heyman reporting that the Red Sox are after Hamels again. Phillies reportedly like Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Cecchini. Greaaat. Cecchini would have to be the centerpiece there, because the Sox sure as hell shouldn't give up more than that.

[a700hitter]

Lester is not a 25mil a year pitcher. The FO set a price for him and stuck to it. I honestly do not think Cueto or Latos will cost us dearly. To be honest, I'm sure deal could be done with a team that no one has been talking about. Everyone needs to stay patient. Theres no way Boston goes into the season with the rotation that they have now. It will get fixed, just wait.

 

He is a $25 million pitcher as of today. That is what he got from a willing buyer, so that was his market value.

[iortiz]

I think Boras will get more out of Detroit then Lester got and again it made no sense to pay Scherzer more.

 

Not directed at you a700, but where are all the Theo bashers with their "he sucks at free agency" signs? Lol

 

 

They could have signed him before, for a lot less money and they didn't. Then they entered in a bidding war they knew they wouldn't win without putting 150 M on the desk. They put 135 M... Almost the double of that 70 M offer and still wasn't enough. Somebody explain to me like a 10 YO, how a pitcher gets the double of value in a couple of months. A 150 M contract is overpaying, and that is what the Cubs did... But do not fool yourself, our FO let this happen and knew in what they were getting into when they cheat Lester with a 70M offer (... or at least I want to think that). What happens with Lester from now, is irrelevant for us, but yeah...Lester will most likely decline and again.. This will be on Theo.

Edited December 10, 2014 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

I think Boras will get more out of Detroit then Lester got and again it made no sense to pay Scherzer more.

 

Not directed at you a700, but where are all the Theo bashers with their "he sucks at free agency" signs? Lol

That may be the a silver lining. Theo's FA record does blow, so maybe Lester blows his arm out early. LOL!!!

[MNSoxChief102]

There are probably more recent examples of teams extending their aces than letting them get to free agency.

 

Probably. But the point still stands that it would've been hard to project Lester having the kind of season he did. Should they have come in higher on their initial offer? Sure... same could be said though of Lester and his camp, as they could've easily countered with 6/120 and kept the conversation going instead of just shutting it down immediately. If he really wanted to stay in Boston as he said he did, I think he would've done exactly that. Most of what happened took place for PR purposes only, on both sides IMO. Happens all the time. Lester pushed all his chips in, Sox tried to play as if he was bluffing only to find he really did have a flush in his hand. Sucks for us but it is what it is... looking at it now, I'm ok with the way we handled it in FA at least. We made a very fair offer and he took the most money. Don't blame him one bit... I'd do the same.

[Bellhorn04]

We thought the Yankees would be in on Lester. Lefties make more sense in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are the wild card. If they are in on Scherzer, the bidding will go very high. The Dodgers have kershaw and Greinke. Scherzer would be a huge expensive luxury as a #3. If they are in the bidding with the Yankees, the Red Sox shouldn't even bother trying. If the Dodgers and Yankees aren't in and the Cubs are out, it will not get to $200 million.

 

Greinke has an opt-out after 2015.

 

The Tigers have said he's their #1 priority.

 

Don't overlook the Giants.

 

Too many things would have to go right.

Edited December 10, 2014 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

The Reds' GM wants a LF and an SP prospect for one of his pitchers if he does trade them, noting the "1 year of control left" issue. Guess who has a 20+ homer OF and a bunch of blocked SP prospects just lyin' around......

 

I don't understand why the Reds would trade Cueto for Cespedes, who is a free agent after 2015 too.

[a700hitter]

Probably. But the point still stands that it would've been hard to project Lester having the kind of season he did. Should they have come in higher on their initial offer? Sure... same could be said though of Lester and his camp, as they could've easily countered with 6/120 and kept the conversation going instead of just shutting it down immediately. If he really wanted to stay in Boston as he said he did, I think he would've done exactly that. Most of what happened took place for PR purposes only, on both sides IMO. Happens all the time. Lester pushed all his chips in, Sox tried to play as if he was bluffing only to find he really did have a flush in his hand. Sucks for us but it is what it is... looking at it now, I'm ok with the way we handled it in FA at least. We made a very fair offer and he took the most money. Don't blame him one bit... I'd do the same.

I don't blame Lester at all. I look at our team and we don't have a #1 or 2. Arguably, we don't have a #3 either. There is a lot of work that needs to be done. Ben said that he had a list of 15 to 20 pitchers that he was exploring. Cross off Lester and Smardizjia. Cross off Sale. People think Scherzer is a pipe dream. Who are the remaining 11 to 16 pitchers that he is looking at?