The Quarter Pole; What's the problem?

[jacksonianmarch]

So we have reached the quarter pole and are a mere week from Memorial Day, the time at which people say they can begin to take the standings seriously. So, we have a ridiculously tight AL East and a sox team 3 games under .500. Now, not many people thought the sox would be this bad, but I did say the sox offense would struggle. But that isn't the only issue the sox are having right now. Let's start with the offense.

 

OFFENSE:

Currently, Boston is 16th in baseball in runs scored, averaging a shade over 4 per game. Last season, they were at 5.3 per game. So, the sox have lost around 1.3 runs per game in production. Let's take a look at why. I had said last yr that the sox couldn't sustain their offensive output since a fair amount of their players had career years. Well, let's look at those guys...

 

Daniel Nava- had an .830OPS last yr with a .385OBP. He was good for 3WAR last yr. His BABIP was insanely high last yr and I said he'd correct. And now, he has overshot, with a .509OPS. He'll likely even out, if given the chance, as a .700OPS player with suboptimal defense. Regardless, you lost a lot of offense with him crashing to the ground

 

Swapping Bradley for Ellsbury- Jacoby had a .781OPS with 52 steals last yr and stabilized your leadoff position. Since his departure, the sox have had the most leadoff hitters in baseball at the top of their lineup. Replacing Ells is Bradley, who is self-proclaimed as "lost" at the moment. That's an understatement with a .602OPS and mired in a 7 for 49 slump. His defense is the only thing keeping him with a positive WAR at 0.3. But losing Ells and his near 6WAR standing hurts a lot when you bring in a rookie.

 

Getting Drew back removes one swap here, and improves 3b as last season, your OPS from your 3b's was .683. Bogaerts is in the mid .700s, although his defense at 3b last yr (SSS) was abysmal

 

Swapping Salty for Pierzynski- Salty was a top offensive catcher and last yr, he had a 3WAR. This yr, his OPS is even higher. AJ is playing like a replacement player with a WAR of 0.1 and an OPS of .634, easily the worst of his career.

 

Mike Carp, your supersub from last yr was not going to produce a near .900OPS again. He was worth 1.3 wins lasr yr in 216ABs. This yr, he's below replacement value and barely seeing the field.

 

Victorino had a sky high BABIP last yr and was a top 20 MVP candidate. This yr, he started off injured and his impact offensively has been muted in the 17 games he's played as I am not sure he is fully healthy.

 

Grady Sizemore was supposed to be the cushion for Bradley to try and ensure there would be some production to replace Ellsbury. He has been replacement level to this point and not even an asset.

 

Overall, the offense came sputtering back to earth after nearly everyone hitting on all cylinders in 2013. Even with Drew returning, I don't expect your offense to return to it's unsustainable levels, while removing two key cogs from last yr and replacing them with one rookie and one over the hill player.

 

PITCHING:

The Red Sox have the EXACT same ERA as last season. Down to the hundredths point. That's remarkable, and mostly due to Jon Lester. Lester has been otherworldly in his walk year. He went from a guy who used to K a ton of batters to a guy who is breaking his previous strikeout marks while walking less than ever and giving up fewer hits. He's been absolutely remarkable, and at the quarter pole, he is starting to turn the doubters of his status as a true ace into believers.

 

Aside from him, Lackey is pitching to his career averages. Last yr, he was significantly better, but you cannot complain with what you have gotten out of him.

 

After those two, the rotation looks rough. Jake Peavy is averaging exactly 6IP per start, which is the bottom of what you expect from a good starter. But his career high walk rate with a career high HR rate makes him actually very lucky to hold a 4.33ERA. He's pitched far worse than that. The strange thing is that he has pitched 6QS in 9 outings. In those QS's, he's walked 20 batters in 38IP, yet somehow managed to log QS's. His FB is down another MPH this yr too, which makes it look more like age is catching up to him than him just not performing well.

 

Doubront is a horse of a different color here. His K an walk rates have dropped, but by pitching to more contact, he is getting bludgeoned. His OPS against is nearly .800, and it is lefties who are dominating him, hitting .340 with an OPS over .840. Plus, the guy has been an absolute burn on the pen. He has thrown barely over 5 innings per start, which is completely horrible. Doubrton was worth nearly a win last yr, and he is below replacement level at -0.4 this yr.

 

Now onto Clay. The guy has lost velocity steadily ever year since he topped out at 94.1mph in 2010. This yr, he's down nearly a full MPH. His BB numbers are nearly identical to last yr. His K numbers are down 1 per 9. His HR rate has tripled from last yr. He's also giving you barely 5IP per start as well. The guy who came back to the playoffs last yr was not the guy who started the yr. And it is obvious that the guy on the hill right now is not the guy from the beginning of last yr. The upside is that his BABIP is nearly .400 and his FIP is 4.11. Meaning, he's not nearly been as bad as his ERA suggests. That being said, the time to sell on him has past and you might need to look to upgrade from your former ace type pitcher.

 

The bullpen has been the balls. 3.00ERA as a bunch, 8.8K/9IP, 1.26WHIP. Everything you could hope for. Uehara hasn't been as dominant, but somehow his ERA is lower than last yr. Breslow has come back down to earth a little, but Badenhop and Capuano have been solid additions. And while Mujica has sucked nuggets, you have seen improvement and durability from Miller.

 

DEFENSE:

The sox F% has dropped by 0.4%. But the sox have the 5th highest amount of unearned runs in major league baseball. I know this isn't the be all and end all, but the errors the sox are making are slightly more frequent and far more painful than they were a year ago. The sox UERA is 0.5. Last yr, it was 0.26. They've increased their errors and they are hurting far more than they did before.

 

Overall, the sox are only 3 games back based solely on the fact that the division is without a terrible team but without a truly elite one. They also aren't that far from contending and taking over the top spot. They just got Drew, which will help in the defensive department and moving Bogaerts to 3b should increase offensive production. But they need another OFer and bad. Their LFers are hitting to a .663OPS. Their CFers are hitting to a .620OPS. And that doesn't even address RF with Victorino and if he can re-produce at his 2013 level. And with as good as their pen has been, they need one more top notch starter. They have the cips, we'll see if they have the chops

[jad]

Haven't you violated ALL conventions by presenting the unarguable facts? It's going to be very difficult for someone to call you by the usual assortment of names and end by noting that obviously you are a pink hat who knows nothing about baseball. (Nonetheless, I have faith, and I haven't given up hope.)

[Spudboy]

Sounds like a fair assessment to me.

 

There are about 120 games to go.

 

We'll see what happens.

[Bellhorn04]

By far the biggest problem has been the terrible hitting with men on base. The Sox are 3rd in the league in OBP. Getting guys on base is not the issue. Getting them in is. We saw it last night with another pile of squandered opportunities.

[mvp 78]

By far the biggest problem has been the terrible hitting with men on base. The Sox are 3rd in the league in OBP. Getting guys on base is not the issue. Getting them in is. We saw it last night with another pile of squandered opportunities.

 

So, just bad luck then?

[Bellhorn04]

So, just bad luck then?

 

Good question. To me it's just poor performance, but if they ever reverse the trend I guess we can look back and call it bad luck.

[Spudboy]

40+ games of bad luck?

[Bellhorn04]

As we know, sometimes SABRMetrics can turn suck to luck.

[Spudboy]

Well it may be 20/20 and unpopular to say now but not signing Salty, Ellsbury, and Drew was not the way to go.

 

This team is not built to win now. I do think that the addition of a RH bat in the outfield ( as per a700 ), and a RH starting pitcher will make a huge difference.

 

Not so sure what to do about replacing Doubrant.

[Bellhorn04]

I think signing Ellsbury would have been a very bad move for this team. Salty I could see going either way. That might turn out to be a mistake. But remember how many Sox fans ripped him to pieces when he was here.

[Spudboy]

I think signing Ellsbury would have been a very bad move for this team. Salty I could see going either way. That might turn out to be a mistake. But remember how many Sox fans ripped him to pieces when he was here.

 

I really think the Sox as an organization may be getting away from long term - big $ contracts and of course I'm familiar with all the arguments against signing Ellsbury ( like speed does not age well ). Still, look at what his absence has resulted in now? His ability to get on base at the top of the order set the table for everyone else to be productive. Now we have a revolving door at the lead off hole and guys not producing the way that they should produce.

 

If the Sox were to spend the big $ long term on anyone it should have been Ellsbury. Even if they had to eat some of the contract at the end.

 

Salty is really missed on this team. I am also familiar with all the crap about why he should be gone. But look at our catchers production and tell me that the Sox were not better last year. He signed with the Marlins for 3/21. 3/21!!!!! That's cheap money to keep a productive player in a key position even if he can't throw to second base. And Vasquez will not be ready until at least 2015 at which point Ross could have been dumped. The second half of the batting order is all but totally useless now. Having Ellsbury and Drew in the lineup and Salty near the bottom greatly lengthened the lineup and scored many more runs. It also helped to wear out starting pitchers so the Sox could get into the pens earlier.

 

Whatever. Going with three rookies in the starting lineup was risky ( I realize WMB is not a rookie ) and seamed like it would work when people were all aglow with what happened last fall. The reality is nowhere near expectation and the Sox record says so.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Spudboy

[Bellhorn04]

I have to admit that my comments about Ellsbury are influenced by the fact that he's been in a big slump lately. His defensive numbers have also been surprisingly poor.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have to admit that my comments about Ellsbury are influenced by the fact that he's been in a big slump lately. His defensive numbers have also been surprisingly poor.

 

The guy runs hot and cold, you guys know that. When he's hot, your whole offense goes. When he's cold, it goes with him. I think he is poorly utilized in the 3 hole, especially while cold. He's bound to warm up soon, especially as he shakes the flu he had last week

[reYoukilis]

I dont think Salty would have solved our problem, though, unlike so many, didnt want him gone.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's all about who you'd replace him with. Everyone bagged on his defense, but by the metrics, it wasn't that bad. His offense at his position is second to very few. If you replaced him with a Buster Posey, then you have something. Replacing him with a similarly defensively deficient player who is older and less offensively gifted, then you forget what you had.

[Spudboy]

Jacko is completely right.

 

The idea of bringing in a player for one year ( who is similar ) just to hold the position until Vasquez and or Swilhart is ready for Boston was a bad one that made little sense.

 

Salty had his defensive deficiencies but showed improvement both on defense and in particular offense each year. Bailing on him by letting him walk was stupid and short sided.

 

There is no guarantee that either Vasquez or Swilhart will be ready for 2015 so there was little risk in keeping Salty on a QO or a 3/21 deal. At least the Sox would be able to rely on Saltie's offensive production and his chemistry in the clubhouse.

 

It's "milk over the dam" at this point as we are stuck with AJ for the year. However, I believe this is one of the several bad decisions that the FO made in constructing the 2014 squad.

[mvp 78]

They didn't give Salty a QO because it would've put them over the tax cap. Everyone made fun of Salty while he was here, especially Jacko. Caring that he's gone is the epitome of 20/20 hindsight.

[Spudboy]

They didn't give Salty a QO because it would've put them over the tax cap. Everyone made fun of Salty while he was here, especially Jacko. Caring that he's gone is the epitome of 20/20 hindsight.

 

They could have made him a multi year offer like Miami.

 

You never heard me bitch about Salty. In fact I spoke clearly about my desire to see him back. I have a right to say what I feel without being hypocritical.

[Bellhorn04]

The Marlins got a good deal on Salty at 3/22. That's pretty small money these days.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Marlins got a good deal on Salty at 3/22. That's pretty small money these days.

 

He is third in OPS for catchers with 100+ABs.

[Station 13]

He is third in OPS for catchers with 100+ABs.

 

better than McCannot?

[Spudboy]

It does not matter what McCann is doing.

 

It's what our catchers are doing that matters.

 

The Sox made a mistake. Period.

[Spitball]

They didn't give Salty a QO because it would've put them over the tax cap. Everyone made fun of Salty while he was here, especially Jacko. Caring that he's gone is the epitome of 20/20 hindsight.

 

Good point. The Sox front office played basic economic planning this winter. Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia would both have required long term deals and for lots of money. With salary cap issues and a core of young players coming up, they had to let them go. Perzynski was a gamble that hopefully will pay off if Vazquez is ready.

 

I wouldn't want Ellsbury on that contract going forward. I wouldn't want Salty blocking Vasquez when he is ready. I would not want Drew long term for what he was expecting to get.

 

The players that are replacing the departed for this season are not as talented yet, but the plan is to be fielding a talented, young, and affordable team going into the future. 2014 might be a bust...but the goal is to contend for a long time.

[Spudboy]

The Marlins got a good deal on Salty at 3/22. That's pretty small money these days.

 

Which makes me scratch my head. Do you think that the Sox could have offered this and kept Salty? Maybe even less? What harm would it have done to keep him here 3 years? At worst, he would be a quality back up to Vasquez. I don't get it, I guess.

[Station 13]

It does not matter what McCann is doing.

 

It's what our catchers are doing that matters.

 

The Sox made a mistake. Period.

 

yes they did. Salty coming off his best year and he was trending into his prime years. We've lost a 20HR catcher, who can also hit 40 doubles. 3/22M is lose change for this team.

[mvp 78]

Good point. The Sox front office played basic economic planning this winter. Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia would both have required long term deals and for lots of money. With salary cap issues and a core of young players coming up, they had to let them go. Perzynski was a gamble that hopefully will pay off if Vazquez is ready.

 

I wouldn't want Ellsbury on that contract going forward. I wouldn't want Salty blocking Vasquez when he is ready. I would not want Drew long term for what he was expecting to get.

 

The players that are replacing the departed for this season are not as talented yet, but the plan is to be fielding a talented, young, and affordable team going into the future. 2014 might be a bust...but the goal is to contend for a long time.

 

Everything about this. They stink and it's frustrating to watch, but I'm kinda ok with it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would like to see Middlebrooks dealt for a guy like Ethier (and ~7-8mm/year of his salary). Without the salary relief, a deal straight up could probably be worked out. Adding $21-24mm to sweeten the pot would make the Sox add a mid level guy, and still a deal I would consider.

 

Doesn't have to be Ethier, but I really think they need an outfielder who can hit RHP well. They thought they had it with Nava, but that's not working out. Tried out Sizemore, no go.

 

Now you need to go out and get a guy who can platoon with Gomes because clearly the option isn't in-house.

[SoxFanForsyth]

For what it's worth, I would have much rather seen them keep Bogaerts at SS, let him learn that position defensively well this year, win 82-84 games and miss the post season, and then come back next year with non-rookie defense up the middle.

 

Now you're going to be going into 2015 with a rookie starting at C and a guy with about 50 games under his belt at SS at the MLB level, basically the same exact position we were in this year with CF and SS. They folded way, way, way too soon.

[Spudboy]

For what it's worth, I would have much rather seen them keep Bogaerts at SS, let him learn that position defensively well this year, win 82-84 games and miss the post season, and then come back next year with non-rookie defense up the middle.

 

Now you're going to be going into 2015 with a rookie starting at C and a guy with about 50 games under his belt at SS at the MLB level, basically the same exact position we were in this year with CF and SS. They folded way, way, way too soon.

 

What is the big deal in moving X to 3rd now? It's not like he has shown great promise at short this season. Maybe some people believe that he is a natural SS but I certainly do not. His range ( at least to the left ) is inadequate. His footwork is marginal and while he has good arm strength, he has yet to learn how to make accurate throws from the hole. I'm not convinced that he is not better off at 3rd now and long term. If he has to be in the lineup everyday it might as well be with Drew playing SS. This way the Sox have a much better middle defense and X can be covered by Drew's range to his right.

 

 

Boo effing who if Bogey's feelings are hurt by this move. The idea is to field the best team possible and TRY to win games. Not to message a rookie's ego.

 

And, I don't buy into the "idea" of building a good young team for the future. Yes, I want as many of the Sox prospect to prosper and be productive for many years in a Boston uniform. But this desire is tempered by my desire to see the Sox win NOW.

 

To think that all these young players are going to add up to a championship team in the future is just foolish conjecture. The Sox, with a few tweaks, can make a run at the post season NOW. And in Boston, this is what is required. Unless you have not lived here very long.

 

Peavy may be gone, Lackey may be gone, and Lester may be gone in 2015. What good will it do to have a promising rookie brigade then if we haven't the horses to compete for a title? I say go for it now, not wait for the "future".

Edited May 22, 2014 by Spudboy

[Spudboy]

I'm not worried about potentially "blocking" prospects like Ciccini. They are prospects, not sure things.