The Quarter Pole; What's the problem?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Stephen Drew had a 3.4 WAR over 124 games last year -- over 150 games, that's a 4 WAR player. By letting Drew take SS, you may be losing offense at SS, but you're significantly improving the defense at SS, significantly improving the offense at 3B, and potentially significantly improving the defense at 3B. This team won a World Series with Drew at SS and Xander at 3B. Don't forget that.

 

 

Also keep in mind that all of the best shortstops in the MLB are injury prone -- Reyes, Tulo, even Drew. The position is very stressful on health. Why risk Xander's health when his future is better off at third?

 

They also won 97 games last year with a 3.4 WAR player at SS and a black hole at 3B. Bogaerts is on pace for a 5.4 WAR. And it's not only about winning right now, it's about winning in the future as well. I don't know why everyone wants to say he's ultimately going to be a 3B. It's like you guys have it in your mind that he's going to be a 3B just because he's big, and no matter how much he improves (his DEF rating is 11th best of all MLB SS's, 5th best among all AL SS's).

 

So, I don't get why everyone wants to plug him at 3B long term. A SS who can hit like Bogaerts can hit is insanely more valuable than a 3B who can hit like Bogaerts can hit.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't see the correlation between health and playing SS, but the rest of your post is spot on.

 

Not true.

 

Why does everyone like to go with the "Oh, Drew played SS & Bogaerts at 3B when they won the WS". That's completely meaningless. They also won with Jonny Gomes playing LF against RHP. Should we go with that everyday too? Because he basically played LF vs RHP the entire playoffs.

 

That argument holds no water. Are the Red Sox better this year with Drew at SS and Bogaerts at 3B? Sure.

 

But do you want to go into 2015 with essentially a rookie at SS again and a rookie behind the plate? No. You have already taken the lumps with Bogaerts at SS and you're about to start reaping the benefits. Drew is a 1 year stop gap. Put him at 3B, let Bogaerts play SS everyday and learn the position so that in the future he doesn't have those lumps.

 

Just makes no sense to me. You've got a beast at SS right now, the best shortstop in the American League and the 2nd best in all of baseball, he's 21 and developing, and you're moving him off his position? No. That's a bad move.

Edited May 31, 2014 by SoxFanForsyth

[reYoukilis]

But what about 3rd? Thats what this is mostly about. I guess Drew could play 3rd but normally you give the better batter 3rd.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But what about 3rd? Thats what this is mostly about. I guess Drew could play 3rd but normally you give the better batter 3rd.

 

Huh? Since when do you give the better hitter 3rd? If they're both playing the field, then who cares who plays where in terms of how each player hits?

 

You generally give the better defender SS, but Bogaerts (6.1 UZR/150 over 520 innings) is not nearly as bad as people think, and is not a big enough drop off to consider hampering his development by giving the position to Drew (career -3.3 UZR/150, last year 6.7 UZR/150).

 

Bogaerts "poor defense" is a narrative and that's all it is. It's entirely better than people here give it credit for, and it is still developing, which is even more reason to keep him at SS.

[Spudboy]

I'd rather see how Drew handles 3B and let Bogaerts continue to improve at SS. That's much, much better for the long term success of the Red Sox. Just look at how much he's improved over 2 months. He's the best SS in the American League and the 2nd best SS in all of baseball behind Tulo.

 

He's posted 1.8 WAR in 52 games, basically 1/3 of the season. That's on pace for a 5.4 WAR season. You don't move a 5+ WAR SS off of his position. Especially not one that is still improving and is only 21.

 

This is the equivalent of moving Ellsbury to LF for Cameron.

 

This is just a stupid statement. Keep banging your WAR drum. Maybe the Sox brass will hear.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is just a stupid statement. Keep banging your WAR drum. Maybe the Sox brass will hear.

 

It's a stupid statement because it's using advanced stats to prove a point. Ok.

[Spudboy]

It's a stupid statement because it's using advanced stats to prove a point. Ok.

 

But there is no point to be proven.

 

You want the Sox to keep X at SS because that is what you want. The idea that his development will be stunted is not relevant. The Sox need to win now too, not just "down the road". The Sox will be a better team NOW with Drew at SS and X at 3rd. It's simple.

 

It does not matter if the Sox have a prospect at 3rd either. Just field the best team possible for this year. I'm sure that X will prosper wherever he plays. It's not as if he was sent down to single A to play 3rd.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But there is no point to be proven.

 

You want the Sox to keep X at SS because that is what you want. The idea that his development will be stunted is not relevant. The Sox need to win now too, not just "down the road". The Sox will be a better team NOW with Drew at SS and X at 3rd. It's simple.

 

It does not matter if the Sox have a prospect at 3rd either. Just field the best team possible for this year. I'm sure that X will prosper wherever he plays. It's not as if he was sent down to single A to play 3rd.

 

If you always play for this year without an eye pointed to the future, you turn into the Yankees without the money to go out and sign 500mm worth of players in an offseason.

[seabeachfred]

They also won 97 games last year with a 3.4 WAR player at SS and a black hole at 3B. Bogaerts is on pace for a 5.4 WAR. And it's not only about winning right now, it's about winning in the future as well. I don't know why everyone wants to say he's ultimately going to be a 3B. It's like you guys have it in your mind that he's going to be a 3B just because he's big, and no matter how much he improves (his DEF rating is 11th best of all MLB SS's, 5th best among all AL SS's).

 

So, I don't get why everyone wants to plug him at 3B long term. A SS who can hit like Bogaerts can hit is insanely more valuable than a 3B who can hit like Bogaerts can hit.

 

I sure as hell don't want Xander playing third base long term. First of all it would permanently block Garin Cecchini, our best young hitter in the minors---and it means that we have to say bye bye to Middlebrooks who I still think can get his act together. Speaking of Drew today might have been a good time to activate him for tonight's game. With Pedroia out (and hopefully this isn't a serious injury), we have the pathetic and worthless Herrera in the lineup tonight, a player who should have been sent down or DFA'd a month ago. It adds nothing to our offense and doesn't do much for our defense either.

 

No, I want Xander back on short by late this year or next year at the latest. With him on third we might have to put Devon Marrero at short and, frankly, I'm sick of having a bunch of weak hitters in the lineup.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hey Fred - Get excited, your favorite player is starting tonight

[seabeachfred]

Hey Fred - Get excited, your favorite player is starting tonight

 

Which one is that SFF? I have so many of them I can't keep track of each one. You mean Rubby or Herrera? All that concerns me is that we do what's needed to take care of the Tampas. They really irritated all of us last night, thanks to the ineptness of the umpires. The team has to band together and bring home a "W".

[iortiz]

Well, I don't really see a big deal moving X to 3rd and Drew as SS. The problems I see is how much time is going to take Drew in good level and 2. What are you going to do with BH, kid is on fire, and bench him now would be a mistake.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Which one is that SFF? I have so many of them I can't keep track of each one. You mean Rubby or Herrera? All that concerns me is that we do what's needed to take care of the Tampas. They really irritated all of us last night, thanks to the ineptness of the umpires. The team has to band together and bring home a "W".

 

Rubby. And he pitched an amazing game.

[reYoukilis]

Well, I don't really see a big deal moving X to 3rd and Drew as SS. The problems I see is how much time is going to take Drew in good level and 2. What are you going to do with BH, kid is on fire, and bench him now would be a mistake.

This.

[User Name]

Huh? Since when do you give the better hitter 3rd? If they're both playing the field, then who cares who plays where in terms of how each player hits?

 

You generally give the better defender SS, but Bogaerts (6.1 UZR/150 over 520 innings) is not nearly as bad as people think, and is not a big enough drop off to consider hampering his development by giving the position to Drew (career -3.3 UZR/150, last year 6.7 UZR/150).

 

Bogaerts "poor defense" is a narrative and that's all it is. It's entirely better than people here give it credit for, and it is still developing, which is even more reason to keep him at SS.

 

You keep using a stat that varies wildly in small samples to prove a point that doesn't make any sense. Drew at SS, XB at 3B is the best alignment for the current edition of the Red Sox, period. Considering they can move X back to SS later and he'll still be getting reps, it's not such a big deal. Even better, it probably gets Herrera off the roster. Holt needs to move to LF.

[Spudboy]

You keep using a stat that varies wildly in small samples to prove a point that doesn't make any sense. Drew at SS, XB at 3B is the best alignment for the current edition of the Red Sox, period. Considering they can move X back to SS later and he'll still be getting reps, it's not such a big deal. Even better, it probably gets Herrera off the roster. Holt needs to move to LF.

 

This entirely.

[Palodios]

Cafardo posted an article yesterday saying the Red Sox might be best positioned to trade with the Cubs for Samardzija, and followed it up by saying that it would probably take either Owens or two of the other top pitching prospects.

 

I am baffled by this guy. He's a 30 year old 4.00 pitcher in the NL Central hitting free agency next year. Sure, he's having a good year, but he is a #4 pitcher and the Cubs are asking for #1 value.

[User Name]

Saying he's a #4 is kind of an overstatement, but otherwise, i certainly wouldn't give up top pitching prospects for a guy who's sure to regress moving to the AL East.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You keep using a stat that varies wildly in small samples to prove a point that doesn't make any sense. Drew at SS, XB at 3B is the best alignment for the current edition of the Red Sox, period. Considering they can move X back to SS later and he'll still be getting reps, it's not such a big deal. Even better, it probably gets Herrera off the roster. Holt needs to move to LF.

 

I don't have a problem with that alignment other than Bogaerts is continuously improving at SS, as shown by his recent play, and you're, at the very least, delaying that growth.

 

Taking ground balls at SS does not equal game experience, so "getting reps" doesn't mean he's not going to miss about 100 games worth of actual game reps, which is where you make improvements. If taking ground balls equated to game experience, he wouldn't have had any kind of learning curve.

 

To say that Bogaerts hasn't seen incredible strides even in the last month is just being biased.

 

It makes zero sense to move the best SS in the AL off of SS. If Drew is such a good defender, put him at 3B so that you don't lose your growth with your 21 year old future superstar.

 

As for the defensive metrics, that's all we have to go off of right now, along with the eye test which says that he's been a very, very good SS over the past month, and his improvement is easy to see.

[reYoukilis]

If you put Drew at 3rd youre making 3rd base a weakness to our team because 3rd is a less demanding a position than SS, and because of that is supposed to be made up with a bat, which Drew wont do, which makes him a liability. So if we keep XB at SS then we need a better 3rd baseman than Drew. Might as well call up Ceccini and do it right. As I said its a conundrum but this decision of getting Drew was made during our biggest losing streak in 20 years. Now that we're making up for that Ill just say it should be interesting what our next choices will be. I mean we're not even talking about Holt.

[sk7326]

They also won 97 games last year with a 3.4 WAR player at SS and a black hole at 3B. Bogaerts is on pace for a 5.4 WAR. And it's not only about winning right now, it's about winning in the future as well. I don't know why everyone wants to say he's ultimately going to be a 3B. It's like you guys have it in your mind that he's going to be a 3B just because he's big, and no matter how much he improves (his DEF rating is 11th best of all MLB SS's, 5th best among all AL SS's).

 

So, I don't get why everyone wants to plug him at 3B long term. A SS who can hit like Bogaerts can hit is insanely more valuable than a 3B who can hit like Bogaerts can hit.

 

I think everything you say here is true about Bogaerts. But none of this has anything to do with the 3B problem. I see Bogaerts as a stud SS too. But we need a stud 3B now. Now if you want to pretend we are in some sort of rebuild - god bless. But this team is not rebuilding - it has a chance to win now, and it charges the fans prices of a team trying to win now. So a win now move is totally defensible. Bogaerts is younger than Cecchini - there is plenty of time for him to get back to SS, and he still going to play there a lot this year. This is clearly the best use of team resources given what is available.

[User Name]

I don't have a problem with that alignment other than Bogaerts is continuously improving at SS, as shown by his recent play, and you're, at the very least, delaying that growth.

 

Taking ground balls at SS does not equal game experience, so "getting reps" doesn't mean he's not going to miss about 100 games worth of actual game reps, which is where you make improvements. If taking ground balls equated to game experience, he wouldn't have had any kind of learning curve.

 

To say that Bogaerts hasn't seen incredible strides even in the last month is just being biased.

 

It makes zero sense to move the best SS in the AL off of SS. If Drew is such a good defender, put him at 3B so that you don't lose your growth with your 21 year old future superstar.

 

As for the defensive metrics, that's all we have to go off of right now, along with the eye test which says that he's been a very, very good SS over the past month, and his improvement is easy to see.

 

1) He'll play SS against lefties.

 

2) The "best SS in the AL" hyperbole means very little. He's not very good defensively yet, (we have scouting reports and the eye test besides metrics) and not putting the best defensive alignment out there because it'd move your favorite player out of position is ridiculous.

[User Name]

I think everything you say here is true about Bogaerts. But none of this has anything to do with the 3B problem. I see Bogaerts as a stud SS too. But we need a stud 3B now. Now if you want to pretend we are in some sort of rebuild - god bless. But this team is not rebuilding - it has a chance to win now, and it charges the fans prices of a team trying to win now. So a win now move is totally defensible. Bogaerts is younger than Cecchini - there is plenty of time for him to get back to SS, and he still going to play there a lot this year. This is clearly the best use of team resources given what is available.

 

^ All of this.

[Spudboy]

I think everything you say here is true about Bogaerts. But none of this has anything to do with the 3B problem. I see Bogaerts as a stud SS too. But we need a stud 3B now. Now if you want to pretend we are in some sort of rebuild - god bless. But this team is not rebuilding - it has a chance to win now, and it charges the fans prices of a team trying to win now. So a win now move is totally defensible. Bogaerts is younger than Cecchini - there is plenty of time for him to get back to SS, and he still going to play there a lot this year. This is clearly the best use of team resources given what is available.

 

Amen.

[SoxFanForsyth]

1) He'll play SS against lefties.

 

2) The "best SS in the AL" hyperbole means very little. He's not very good defensively yet, (we have scouting reports and the eye test besides metrics) and not putting the best defensive alignment out there because it'd move your favorite player out of position is ridiculous.

 

No, he won't.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140601-bogaerts-to-play-third-base-full-time-once-drew-arrives.ece

 

"For the time being, in getting to know Xander even more and how he responds to things, we would put him at third base and leave him there rather than bounce back and forth,” Farrell said. “Down the line, if there’s two righthanded hitters that could play the right side of the infield, that might have us put him back at shortstop, but where we are right now, we just want to get Xander more acclimated and comfortable and leave him at third for the time being."

 

There are no plans to put him at SS vs LHP. That was a media fabricated idea.

[SoxFanForsyth]

1) He'll play SS against lefties.

 

2) The "best SS in the AL" hyperbole means very little. He's not very good defensively yet, (we have scouting reports and the eye test besides metrics) and not putting the best defensive alignment out there because it'd move your favorite player out of position is ridiculous.

 

It has nothing to do with "moving my favorite player out of position". If anyone is biased in this, it's clearly you, who has stated multiple times that part of the reason of acquiring Drew was because of Bogaerts SS defense, which has been vehemently denied by all of the Red Sox brass.

 

The reason we have statistics and particularly advanced stats is because the eye test leads isn't accurate, you only pay attention when it confirms your believe. Right now, Bogaerts, defensively, is an above average defensive SS. The statistics state that.

 

And calling him the best SS in the AL is not "hyperbole", it's a fact, and we're 1/3 of the way through the year. It's not 2 weeks in and he's got a 0.4 WAR compared to everyone else's 0.2 WAR.

 

Moving Bogaerts is only going to force the Red Sox to swallow these lumps again next season, and what are we going to do then when we hit a skid? Go sign another SS? Great, that sounds like a fantastic plan. Really, really smart thinking to agree with this idea.

[sk7326]

It has nothing to do with "moving my favorite player out of position". If anyone is biased in this, it's clearly you, who has stated multiple times that part of the reason of acquiring Drew was because of Bogaerts SS defense, which has been vehemently denied by all of the Red Sox brass.

 

The reason we have statistics and particularly advanced stats is because the eye test leads isn't accurate, you only pay attention when it confirms your believe. Right now, Bogaerts, defensively, is an above average defensive SS. The statistics state that.

 

And calling him the best SS in the AL is not "hyperbole", it's a fact, and we're 1/3 of the way through the year. It's not 2 weeks in and he's got a 0.4 WAR compared to everyone else's 0.2 WAR.

 

Moving Bogaerts is only going to force the Red Sox to swallow these lumps again next season, and what are we going to do then when we hit a skid? Go sign another SS? Great, that sounds like a fantastic plan. Really, really smart thinking to agree with this idea.

 

Odds are there won't really be lumps. His track record has shown this - he reaches a level, he learns it quickly. He will probably get another 30-40 starts at SS ... he will be fine. If there was a lot of position depth at 3B in the bigs (even something like "prime" mark reynolds) I'd have a different answer, but there just is not. Middlebrooks when he returns from the DL could do a lot to help this, but there is no indication that he will.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Odds are there won't really be lumps. His track record has shown this - he reaches a level, he learns it quickly. He will probably get another 30-40 starts at SS ... he will be fine. If there was a lot of position depth at 3B in the bigs (even something like "prime" mark reynolds) I'd have a different answer, but there just is not. Middlebrooks when he returns from the DL could do a lot to help this, but there is no indication that he will.

 

His track record shows that he learns quickly offensively, but the learning curve isn't so dramatic defensively.

 

And my point is to put Drew at 3B and keep Bogaerts at SS. I don't think Drew, defensively, is as big of an upgrade over Bogaerts as people make it out to be. Drew had a very good season last year but over his career he's been an average SS, that's it. While he may be a bit better now, give Bogaerts another month of growth and it's very very close.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just to be clear, I really hope I'm wrong and moving Bogaerts to 3B doesn't impact him at SS next year, and Drew does great at SS/Bogaerts does great at 3B and while we're at it, give us another WS.

 

I just think it's a panic move that is going to bite us in the long run.

[User Name]

You're the one in a panic over nothing.