Position Changes Needed

[king koji]

here is our strongest team.Jackie Bradley full-time CF. jonny Gomes and Grady Sizemore LF platoon. Daniel Nava back-up 1st Baseman Mike Carp needs to be traded. Victorino in right+ when injured, Bradley to right + Sizemore to Center with Nava back to Gomes platoon.

[sk7326]

We have played 8 games ... breathe ...

[rjortiz]

The game thread raised an interesting point about Workman and Buchholz. I wanted to comment on that.

 

The Marlins are 5-3. Casey McGehee has a .947 OPS. Reading too much into an eight game sample will drive you crazy. There's some useful information, such as the velocities of Peavy and Buchholz, but I don't think any strong conclusions can be made this early.

 

I think there's some validity to jackson's opinion. I wouldn't go as far to say that it was absolutely necessary. Capuano is next in line, and the Red Sox can't have that high of an opinion of Workman as a starter. They would have to have serious concerns about more than Buchholz. Workman was the only one with options, and using him as a starter increases his flexibility in case of injuries. I don't think you can read much more into it.

 

That being said, I think there is some valid concerns about Buchholz. Buchholz' average four seam velocity was 90.78 mph against the Brewers. That's down a full mph from when he came back from injury, (91.79) and more than two mph from his velocity (93.01) in April last year. If he's still down this much in late April, it definitely would be something to worry about.

[rjortiz]

This is not a overreaction to a ten game sample. I have never been a fan of Nava. He was only a passable regular last year, despite being having a huge year offensively. fWAR has him a grand total of 1.8 WAR. It's easy to see why.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

He ranked third in wOBA among 16 qualified left-fielders. However, when you sort the table by WAR, he falls to 12th. Nava had a Def value of -18.4, which places him 15th out of 16th. The only guy below him is a 1B. Nava is also saved by his low innings in the outfield. I was interested to see how historically bad this was.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=950&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25%2ca

 

Out of all outfielders, not just LF/RF, since UZR became a stat in 2002, Nava has the 48th worst defensive season if his 2013 UZR is adjusted to 150 games. This is before adjusting for position. He would have had at least -25 Def value had he played the outfield more often. Take this with a grain of salt, but here is he stacks up in Def value all time.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21%2ca

 

100th worst defensive season in all MLB history, and managed that despite playing in only 971 innings. He can thank the .352 BABIP for the .385 OBP last year. If he's near the league average in BABIP he's worthless. Even if he improves from historically bad defender to awful, he's still not very useful. I think they'll put him out to pasture at some point in the season.

[mvp 78]

Nava should NEVER play RF at Fenway.

[Navafan29]

Nava was 5th in the whole AL in OBP last year; 8th in batting average. Last year, the only AL outfielder better than him at getting on base was Mike Trout. Nava's an OBP guy and I don't think that only power hitters are allowed to be excused for poor defense and baserunning.

 

Nava has a had a low average so far, but a lot of his outs have been ringing line drives. He'll come through.

 

JBJ has not proved himself enough to have a certain position job yet. He could just be on a 3-game hot streak. He has however, proven himself worthy of getting a chance, so let's keep putting him in against righties

Edited April 11, 2014 by Navafan29

[mvp 78]

That's fine, but he's not hitting now and even when he is the defense pretty much negates his offense.

 

I'll say it again. You don't need Carp AND Nava. Pick one. Trade one.

[rjortiz]

Nava was 5th in the whole AL in OBP last year; 8th in batting average. Last year, the only AL outfielder better than him at getting on base was Mike Trout. Nava's an OBP guy and I don't think that only power hitters are allowed to be excused for poor defense and baserunning.

 

I never thought I would hear Trout and Nava mentioned in the same sentence. Trout could be the worst defender in MLB history, and still would be an elite player. There's also a huge difference between poor (2011 Carl Crawford), and historically bad defense (2013 Daniel Nava). We should be fortunate that Nava isn't a terrible baserunner.

 

Nava has a had a low average so far, but a lot of his outs have been ringing line drives. He'll come through.

 

I'm not worried about the ten game sample size. He'll definitely improve on his start. The question is how much he will improve? I am not optimistic about a repeat of his LD% and BABIP this year. How many players have similar skills to Nava, and consistently have huge years? Nava does not have elite patience at the plate. A BB% of 9.5% is above-average. He isn't going to leg out a lot of infield hits, and he has limited power. The only way he sustains his BABIP is continued luck. Look at the players with high LD% and high BABIP:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,-1,34,35,43,40,41,53&season=2013&month=0&season1=2004&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

 

Not many repeat visitors at Nava's level. Not many players that are similar to him either. There's also some bad performances despite the high LD%. The only hope is that he continues to get hit by a lot of pitches. He finished with 15 HBP, which was 4th in all of MLB.

 

I don't have any faith in his defense improving. Nava has rated as having awful range every single year in the majors, and in two of those he's historically bad. Nava has one and a half above average skills. He can draw some walks, and can hit right handed pitching. He's a pinch hitter at best. Carp already does that, and Gomes is a legitimate masher against lefties. Bradley can play all three outfield positions. Nava is the one who should go, but he'll stay up because of last year.

 

JBJ has not proved himself enough to have a certain position job yet. He could just be on a 3-game hot streak. He has however, proven himself worthy of getting a chance, so let's keep putting him in against righties

 

No, but he's better than Nava. I think Sizemore, Bradley, and Victorino is the eventual outfield. This team might be short of power come July, so I'd kick the tires on Carlos Gonzalez and Stanton. Maybe the Marlins don't want to pay Stanton the rest of his $6 million.

[rjortiz]

That's fine, but he's not hitting now and even when he is the defense pretty much negates his offense.

 

I'll say it again. You don't need Carp AND Nava. Pick one. Trade one.

 

Carp apparently has more trade value. I don't know why. Another huge fluke year. He hit 29 HR's four years ago in AAA. Maybe a GM will think he is a late bloomer and give up a legitimate prospect. Nava would fetch a D+ prospect at best. However, trading Carp means Daniel Nava is the insurance on Napoli's hip. Nava would be even more useless at 1B. At least, Carp has the chance to be above average if pressed into lineup at 1B.

 

There is another option. Send Nava to AAA. Rotate AB's between Sizemore, Gomes, and Bradley. Bradley can also spell Victorino and come in as a defensive replacement. Don't forget to call the Marlins and Rockies everyday until the deadline.

[mvp 78]

Does nava have options left?

[rjortiz]

Does nava have options left?

 

Yeah, his last one.

[Palodios]

Yeah, his last one.

 

I have seen conflicting sources on this. Soxprospects has 1 option on Nava's list, but I do not think that is correct.

[rjortiz]

I have seen conflicting sources on this. Soxprospects has 1 option on Nava's list, but I do not think that is correct.

 

I used that as my source. Not a big deal. Just an opinion. The Red Sox won't send him down this early. He'll pass through waivers in July anyway.

[Spitball]

In my opinion, Nava and Carp are role players. They come and go depending on their production. They may have one good season or two, but they are replaceable. When they are producing, they will be part of the equation. I am not about to worry about them otherwise.

[SoxSport]

Yeah, Size-JBJ-Vic, LF-CF-RF. That's their best OF, though Vic and Size have questions about durability, and JBJ has to keep hitting and drawing walks.

 

Plus there are other factors at play here--as always on a team. You got Gomes, Carp and Nava who need touches, and are viewed as depth from last years' champion team. And you got Nap at 1B, who needs a backup.

 

You figure Gomes sticks--he bats RHd. Plus he's a big hit guy off the bench. Nava is a high on base guy. Carp is weak defensively, but he's their 1B insurance. The problem with all 3 is none offers good backup defense in the OF. You take a hit defensively if one of them replaces any of the top 3.

 

It's a dilemma. Though you wonder why the heck they would get Roberts for 3B when they have Herrera. If Herrera can't play 3B, then move him to SS and play X there for awhile. No big deal. X has played there. Who needs Roberts?

Edited April 12, 2014 by SoxSport

[d-money]

Its early! Lets see wat their record will be through 40 games.Nava is clearly not an everyday player.Herrera needs to be sent down to the minors.

[seabeachfred]

Yeah, Size-JBJ-Vic, LF-CF-RF. That's their best OF, though Vic and Size have questions about durability, and JBJ has to keep hitting and drawing walks.

 

Plus there are other factors at play here--as always on a team. You got Gomes, Carp and Nava who need touches, and are viewed as depth from last years' champion team. And you got Nap at 1B, who needs a backup.

 

You figure Gomes sticks--he bats RHd. Plus he's a big hit guy off the bench. Nava is a high on base guy. Carp is weak defensively, but he's their 1B insurance. The problem with all 3 is none offers good backup defense in the OF. You take a hit defensively if one of them replaces any of the top 3.

 

It's a dilemma. Though you wonder why the heck they would get Roberts for 3B when they have Herrera. If Herrera can't play 3B, then move him to SS and play X there for awhile. No big deal. X has played there. Who needs Roberts?

 

And who the hell needs Herrera either? Not as a regular. He is a decent utility and substitute player but you can't play a mediocrity like that as a regular third baseman. As for Roberts, the Cubs didn't want him so does that mean Cherington thinks a new Red Sox uniform would work wonders. I remember Theo saying the same thing about Hermida and Cameron and Repko and Thomas. Didn't come close to working. Pray that Middlebrooks mends faster that most of our injured have in the past.

[RedSoxNC84]

If Sizemore can stay healthy, JBJ can produce, and Victorino can stop tweaking his f***ing hammies, then our outfield is set. Still some question marks going there though. Platooning Gomes/Nava with Sizemore would be ideal in my mind. I think at this point MVP is right, we don't need Carp. Once WMB comes back package Carp and Roberts/Hererra, get some decent MR back maybe.

[sk7326]

And who the hell needs Herrera either? Not as a regular. He is a decent utility and substitute player but you can't play a mediocrity like that as a regular third baseman. As for Roberts, the Cubs didn't want him so does that mean Cherington thinks a new Red Sox uniform would work wonders. I remember Theo saying the same thing about Hermida and Cameron and Repko and Thomas. Didn't come close to working. Pray that Middlebrooks mends faster that most of our injured have in the past.

 

It means Cherington needed guys in case starters got hurt. Roberts and Herrera are about as good as you can expect from "emergency filler". If they did not solve 3B and if Pedroia is gone for any serious length of time, we were gonna be in trouble anyway.

[sk7326]

In my opinion, Nava and Carp are role players. They come and go depending on their production. They may have one good season or two, but they are replaceable. When they are producing, they will be part of the equation. I am not about to worry about them otherwise.

 

Sizemore (at least while waiting for his next catastrophic injury) - Bradley - Victorino left to right is their best outfield. Bradley is so gifted defensively that we can wait for his offense to catch up (if we have to).

[seabeachfred]

Sizemore (at least while waiting for his next catastrophic injury) - Bradley - Victorino left to right is their best outfield. Bradley is so gifted defensively that we can wait for his offense to catch up (if we have to).

 

No we can't sk. We need Bradley to start hitting now and keep hitting. It is why the front office seemed to anxious to let Ellsbury walk and replace him with JB. They had to think he could do it or otherwise they were just pulling the wool over our eyes for the sole purpose of saving money. The fact is Bradley cannot touch Ellsbury with a five foot pole save for his outstanding defense. He has very average speed, is a near strikeout machine and his power is very average at best. Still with all that he needs to start hitting and hitting fast because we cannot wait for his offense to catch up with his defense since we seem to have more than our share of stiffs right now in the lineup.

[sk7326]

No we can't sk. We need Bradley to start hitting now and keep hitting. It is why the front office seemed to anxious to let Ellsbury walk and replace him with JB. They had to think he could do it or otherwise they were just pulling the wool over our eyes for the sole purpose of saving money. The fact is Bradley cannot touch Ellsbury with a five foot pole save for his outstanding defense. He has very average speed, is a near strikeout machine and his power is very average at best. Still with all that he needs to start hitting and hitting fast because we cannot wait for his offense to catch up with his defense since we seem to have more than our share of stiffs right now in the lineup.

 

Relax - 13 games, fundamentals have been ok. The injuries are a bigger concern than any of the hyperventilating that is being done here.

 

Bradley's power stats are not great, but .273/.368 is a slash line we will be very happy with. Bradley has plenty of speed, but he is a poor base stealer - but that's among the more dispensable baseball skills. Part of being a good organization is trusting your evaluations. Overreacting to spring results is generally poor business.

[a700hitter]

Relax - 13 games, fundamentals have been ok. The injuries are a bigger concern than any of the hyperventilating that is being done here.

 

Bradley's power stats are not great, but .273/.368 is a slash line we will be very happy with. Bradley has plenty of speed, but he is a poor base stealer - but that's among the more dispensable baseball skills. Part of being a good organization is trusting your evaluations. Overreacting to spring results is generally poor business.

Bradley's speed is good. He is no burner. Edited April 14, 2014 by a700hitter

[d-money]

Are we gonna know today about pedroia's wrist issue? I like pedey but it seems like durability is becoming an issue with him.

[d-money]

He is a tough lil guy though.I hope its not as serious

[sk7326]

Bradley's speed is good. He is no burner.

 

His comp in these areas is Bernie Williams really - and you could do a whole lot worse than that.

[User Name]

Are we gonna know today about pedroia's wrist issue? I like pedey but it seems like durability is becoming an issue with him.

 

Yeah those 160 games he played last year are a clear indication of his durability issues.

[Spudboy]

Yeah those 160 games he played last year are a clear indication of his durability issues.

 

And let's not ignore that his "durability" is only in question because he has been injured in routine game activities like batting and covering second base.

[a700hitter]

His comp in these areas is Bernie Williams really - and you could do a whole lot worse than that.

I haven't clocked them, but my betting is that Bernie was faster. They maybe comparable in that Bernie was also not a good base stealer. But Bernie could fly, especially going first to third.

[Behindenemylines]

Between injuries and players not hitting the Sox are having a hard time scoring runs. Hopefully, Middlebrooks isn't to far away because this team lacks power. If Pedrioa is out any length of time who is the long terms solutions? Betts?