The Jon Lester contract situation

[sk7326]

King Felix was 2-6, ERA 4.11 after the all-star game last year. Had a bad August, 1-4, 5.82 ERA, .281 BAA. Came back some in Sept. 3.78 ERA. There was talk he was having elbow or arm issues. My memory was correct.

 

Pitcher wins means zero.

 

He struggled a bit in August, 3 starts against Toronto and Texas particularly. He seemed possibly a little hurt towards the end as you noted. He's also 3 years younger than Jon Lester and as mechanically sound - so the idea of decline requires a bit more than 9 starts for evidence. The 30 inning drop from a year ago is indicators that he might not have been 100% coming in. Even so, he had numbers and win contributions right in line with his pretty amazing career. He's still in any best in the league conversation.

[SoxSport]

Pitcher wins means zero.

 

He struggled a bit in August, 3 starts against Toronto and Texas particularly. He seemed possibly a little hurt towards the end as you noted. He's also 3 years younger than Jon Lester and as mechanically sound - so the idea of decline requires a bit more than 9 starts for evidence. The 30 inning drop from a year ago is indicators that he might not have been 100% coming in. Even so, he had numbers and win contributions right in line with his pretty amazing career. He's still in any best in the league conversation.

 

More a question of soundness than decline for Felix. Has been up and down in ST. My guess is he's OK.

 

CC is more a question of decline. He has logged a lot of innings in NY and his heat is down.

[Behindenemylines]

Lester is durable, lefty, home grown and has a lot of success in the AL East. Based on his statement that he wants to stay in Boston and would take less to do so this extension will get done.

 

I have said it before, I think it would be a wise investment for the Sox. He would be the solid ace as the Sox start to work in the young arms to replace Lackey and Peavy over the next few years. If all of the young pitchers are successful then you have pieces that can be moved. Lester would be the foundation of the staff over the next few years.

[seabeachfred]

I have said it before, I think it would be a wise investment for the Sox. He would be the solid ace as the Sox start to work in the young arms to replace Lackey and Peavy over the next few years. If all of the young pitchers are successful then you have pieces that can be moved. Lester would be the foundation of the staff over the next few years.

 

BEL---You shouldn't have to tell this any of us but maybe send a missive to Cherington and Farrell to get this thing moving. A solid Lester and a finally healthy Buchholz are keys to our success the next few years. Get Jon signed.

[Palodios]

Contract talks with Lester are done for now. Looks like it isn't happening.

 

It probably makes sense -- why buy high at this point? Scherzer, Shields, Masterson, Ervin Santana are all going to be free agents. David Price and Samardzija will be available. Maybe Mat Latos.

 

Maybe it makes sense to wait him out, let his numbers normalize a bit from last year, and put his asking price in the right range.

[Behindenemylines]

Based on what I've heard this will get done eventually. I think its more about the years then the $$$ for the Sox. He goes out and pitches like an ace again the contract issue will solve itself.

[seabeachfred]

Based on what I've heard this will get done eventually. I think its more about the years then the $$$ for the Sox. He goes out and pitches like an ace again the contract issue will solve itself.

 

I think is a storm warning. We have not been all that successful keeping our free agents in the past and the price will only keep going up and up some more if Jon pitches well from the opening bell. If this things drag out into the summer I believe he will be as good as gone........and guess where to next?????

[a700hitter]

I think is a storm warning. We have not been all that successful keeping our free agents in the past and the price will only keep going up and up some more if Jon pitches well from the opening bell. If this things drag out into the summer I believe he will be as good as gone........and guess where to next?????

Bite your tongue.

[User Name]

Jon Lester is a free agent? News to me.

[seabeachfred]

Bite your tongue.

 

I didn't say that with pleasure Ted. We need to get this guy under contract and soon because the price will only go up as we hear some of the figures thrown out by other teams with their pitchers. Teams are extending contracts all the time now and Lester has said he would give us a hometown discount but if Cherington takes a page out of the Epstein playbook and lowballs him we will see Lester somewhere else after this season and trying to replace him with a worthless dud like Alan Webster or Rubby Delarosa. You know there are actually a couple of people here and on another board who are not aware that Lester is a free agent after this season. Amazing!!!!!!

[SoxSport]

I didn't say that with pleasure Ted. We need to get this guy under contract and soon because the price will only go up as we hear some of the figures thrown out by other teams with their pitchers. Teams are extending contracts all the time now and Lester has said he would give us a hometown discount but if Cherington takes a page out of the Epstein playbook and lowballs him we will see Lester somewhere else after this season and trying to replace him with a worthless dud like Alan Webster or Rubby Delarosa. You know there are actually a couple of people here and on another board who are not aware that Lester is a free agent after this season. Amazing!!!!!!

 

Sure, as long as Lester doesn't set the bar based on what the Yankees do. They are paying a guy $22 million who has never pitched a MLB game to be a #3 starter, and Lester has to ignore that. The Dodgers are paying $30 million for Kershaw. The Yankees and Dodgers live in a different salary world. The limit each team can pay obviously varies. Players and their agents should be mindful of that, as well as the media.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester and the sox have suspended negotiations. For how long, nobody knows, but I have a feeling he reaches open water now, he's too close to it to not take a dip. Like I've said before, I would not be the least bit surprised if the sox are silently pleased with this. They have a bunch of upper level guys who all project as big league starters and signing Lester for $25 mil a yr for 6-7 yrs isn't their usual MO

[dupree]

Lester and the sox have suspended negotiations. For how long, nobody knows, but I have a feeling he reaches open water now, he's too close to it to not take a dip. Like I've said before, I would not be the least bit surprised if the sox are silently pleased with this. They have a bunch of upper level guys who all project as big league starters and signing Lester for $25 mil a yr for 6-7 yrs isn't their usual MO

Jacko you are hoping that Lester hits free agency so the Yanks have a chance to get a legitimate lefty ace instead of an overweight overworked lefty pitcher who yall have posing as your ace. I see Jon and the Sox coming together and reaching a deal in the near future. I dont see Jon bolting for the money like Ellsbury. He will take a hometown discount contract and Sox Nation will be happy and the Yanks and all other AL East teams will have to deal with him for years to come.

[BSN07]

Jacko you are hoping that Lester hits free agency so the Yanks have a chance to get a legitimate lefty ace instead of an overweight overworked lefty pitcher who yall have posing as your ace. I see Jon and the Sox coming together and reaching a deal in the near future. I dont see Jon bolting for the money like Ellsbury. He will take a hometown discount contract and Sox Nation will be happy and the Yanks and all other AL East teams will have to deal with him for years to come.

 

Actually I think he raises a valid point(even if it's his MO to want Lester to hit FA). I can see a few scenarios where the team would be ok with letting him walk. One of Doubront and/or Buchholz step up and show #1 front line stuff for 220+ IP and 1 or more of the prospects shows and is ready IP wise to hold down a rotation spot next season. If Lester's price is 25M+ a year I don't see him on the Sox. I don't see the Sox giving anyone 20M+ a year anytime soon(unless Harper hits FA lol).

[User Name]

Letting Lester go because Buch and/or Doubront have one good season after years of mediocrity/ injuries is like a Diabetic going to Dunkin' Donuts, eating a dozen donuts, and then complaining when he ends up in the hospital. He should've known he was going to end up on the wrong side of a "f*** ME" sandwich, and he only has himself to blame.

[Spudboy]

Lester and the sox have suspended negotiations. For how long, nobody knows, but I have a feeling he reaches open water now, he's too close to it to not take a dip. Like I've said before, I would not be the least bit surprised if the sox are silently pleased with this. They have a bunch of upper level guys who all project as big league starters and signing Lester for $25 mil a yr for 6-7 yrs isn't their usual MO

 

Actually I think he raises a valid point(even if it's his MO to want Lester to hit FA). I can see a few scenarios where the team would be ok with letting him walk. One of Doubront and/or Buchholz step up and show #1 front line stuff for 220+ IP and 1 or more of the prospects shows and is ready IP wise to hold down a rotation spot next season. If Lester's price is 25M+ a year I don't see him on the Sox. I don't see the Sox giving anyone 20M+ a year anytime soon(unless Harper hits FA lol).

 

 

Well of course Jacko would want the Sox to be "weakened" and for his beloved Skanks to sign him. Most knowledgable fans would feel the same way, right?

 

And yes, he also makes a valid point. I have some difficulty in seeing the Sox signing a pitcher for 5-7 years at over $20. mil per. This is one thing I can admire about the Sox F.O.. It's not a reasonable risk to take. Look at the Dodgers and Kershaw.

 

Who knows?

[Bellhorn04]

Actually I think he raises a valid point(even if it's his MO to want Lester to hit FA). I can see a few scenarios where the team would be ok with letting him walk. One of Doubront and/or Buchholz step up and show #1 front line stuff for 220+ IP and 1 or more of the prospects shows and is ready IP wise to hold down a rotation spot next season. If Lester's price is 25M+ a year I don't see him on the Sox. I don't see the Sox giving anyone 20M+ a year anytime soon(unless Harper hits FA lol).

 

I think the Sox would definitely give him 5/100 or 5/110.

 

I'm guessing Lester is looking for 6 years and that's the snag.

[Spudboy]

Letting Lester go because Buch and/or Doubront have one good season after years of mediocrity/ injuries is like a Diabetic going to Dunkin' Donuts, eating a dozen donuts, and then complaining when he ends up in the hospital. He should've known he was going to end up on the wrong side of a "f*** ME" sandwich, and he only has himself to blame.

 

True. But if the Sox don't sign Lester because of a valid concern about his ability to perform up to the contract can it be said that they will be eating that sandwich?

 

I am just saying that I can see Lester moving on. And, I can see him signing with the Sox too.

[User Name]

True. But if the Sox don't sign Lester because of a valid concern about his ability to perform up to the contract can it be said that they will be eating that sandwich?

 

I am just saying that I can see Lester moving on. And, I can see him signing with the Sox too.

 

That's a whole other issue. I'm specifically refuting BSN's point that they could let Lester go if Buch or Doubront took a step forward. That would not be smart considering their respective histories.

[Spudboy]

That's a whole other issue. I'm specifically refuting BSN's point that they could let Lester go if Buch or Doubront took a step forward. That would not be smart considering their respective histories.

 

I realized what you were saying and I agree.

 

I'm just pointing out that Lester resigning is not an automatic. I see that many people believe that it will definitely happen because he said that he would take a discount to stay. The Sox are not likely to step up and pay the apparent going rate for a pitcher of his ability. Yes, they paid a lot for Beckett and Lackey. I think that those days may be over and that the Sox may want to avoid long term big dollar commitments to pitchers. And if so, I agree with their stance.

[jacksonianmarch]

Typically, guys who take a "discount" want more security at a lower rate. The sox cannot have it both ways. Either give him a big time AAV over a shorter term, or accept a high length of commitment at a lower AAV. They cannot expect Jon to take both smaller years and dollars. That's just dumb business

[User Name]

You don't know what they're expecting or what the hold-up is.

[Spudboy]

I bet the Sox are talking 4-5 and 16-18 per.

[Bellhorn04]

I bet the Sox are talking 4-5 and 16-18 per.

 

Now that would be Fred's lowball offer.

[seabeachfred]

I realized what you were saying and I agree.

 

I'm just pointing out that Lester resigning is not an automatic. I see that many people believe that it will definitely happen because he said that he would take a discount to stay. The Sox are not likely to step up and pay the apparent going rate for a pitcher of his ability. Yes, they paid a lot for Beckett and Lackey. I think that those days may be over and that the Sox may want to avoid long term big dollar commitments to pitchers. And if so, I agree with their stance.

 

Look Spud, letting Lester walk is the heights of idiocy. WE HAVE NO ONE TO TAKE HIS SPOT IN THE ROTATION...period!!!!!!!!! To expect a turd like Webster or Delarosa to become his replacement would be a recipe for disaster and there is no free agent who will be available to sign f or less than what Lester wants----and after his seven strong innings today the price will only go up. Owens and Renaudo are a year or more away and I don't trust Junk Food Buchholz or Porky Doubrant to suddenly become bell cows of the staff. We sign Lester or we are in deep s***.

Edited March 31, 2014 by seabeachfred

[seabeachfred]

Now that would be Fred's lowball offer.

 

That's an insulting offer for the ace of a staff who carried us to a World Series Title last year. It is beyond lowball and I repeat I see this holdup as a storm warning. We have not been successful at all in resigning our free agents to long term contracts in the past and it took a real home town discount to get Pedroia's name on one. Lester will give us one but he needs to be paid. If he wants six years and we want to give him five, split the difference and stop acting like a pack of front office *******s. Five years? Then give him more money. He is worth it and you notice most teams have been resigning their top pitchers to long term contracts.

[User Name]

Fred, you don't know what the issue is with the negotiations. How do you know they're acting like "front office *******s". Seriously, is it too much to ask for you to show some restraint, and cool it with the assumptions and hyperbole? (This is not sarcasm, i am literally asking)

[seabeachfred]

Fred, you don't know what the issue is with the negotiations. How do you know they're acting like "front office *******s". Seriously, is it too much to ask for you to show some restraint, and cool it with the assumptions and hyperbole? (This is not sarcasm, i am literally asking)

 

Since you put it that way it is not too must to ask. However, we all know that negotiations were proceeding along pretty well up until a week ago. None of us knew the particulars but there was no storm warning. Now all of a sudden talks are put on hold. I've seen this movie before. I saw it with Damon, I saw it with Bay, and I'm seeing it now. Lester wants to stay in Boston, he has made that very very clear and I take him at his word. My gut feeling is that the FO office is feeding off that and thinking they can get him at a bargain. THAT IS MY OPINION!!!!!! It could be that suddenly Lester sees all the money being talked about with other pitchers and now we wants to cash it and I wouldn't be surprised if some people here have come to that conclusion. I haven't. Jon was too emotional and too sincere to be putting on an act. I want this guy signed because we need him and he is a damn good pitcher----and let me tell you this: If he keeps pitching as did today the price will only go up. I would suggest that Cherington do what he can to restart contract talks and get Jon's name on the dotted line.

[sk7326]

Sure, as long as Lester doesn't set the bar based on what the Yankees do. They are paying a guy $22 million who has never pitched a MLB game to be a #3 starter, and Lester has to ignore that. The Dodgers are paying $30 million for Kershaw. The Yankees and Dodgers live in a different salary world. The limit each team can pay obviously varies. Players and their agents should be mindful of that, as well as the media.

 

The Dodgers live in a different salary world - but they paid that for the best pitching product in the sport. Kershaw's age and skill level combined made it a sound, albeit risky idea.

 

I expect the Lester deal to get done. The key to me - and my idle guess on the tension - is what the Red Sox are going to do to cover decline risk. The Red Sox like putting vesting options and team options on the back end of these deals (I would too). I imagine Lester, who has proven to be one of the league's most durable starters, is not wild about having "not precisely" guaranteed years on the back of a deal (and I would not be wild about it either). So if they can come to some sort of understanding on that structure (say, 5 years with a vesting 6th) that might be all there is to it.

[SoxSport]

Lester isn't Ellsbury. If he was, his agent would be Boras. I would expect he will re-sign with the Red Sox for $16-18 million range. That's enough money for him to live his next 9 lives.