Ellsbury to Yankees

[sk7326]

I found this article interesting. The author explains why Choo's splits should not be a concern going forward:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/story/_/id/10079533/discount-free-agents-shin-soo-choo-curtis-granderson-stephen-drew-hit-lefties-mlb

 

It is an interesting case ... I certainly do not shun Choo JUST because he has poor splits. It is more giving $20M a year to somebody who does not add tremendous defensive value for whole you are basically punting 100-150 of his PAs. I would not mind signing him for the right price. A contract that resembles what the Yanks gave Ellsbury is not it.

[mvp 78]

On the other hand ... THIS is a bad signing for Seattle.

 

They have tons of cash and need to show other MLB players that they want to contend. It makes sense for the M's.

[sk7326]

They have tons of cash and need to show other MLB players that they want to contend. It makes sense for the M's.

 

Management advances that a lot (we need to show credibility blah blah blah). And I'd believe them even - if they were like Tampa in 2007-2008, sitting on a powder keg of young stars who were ready to burst forth. But Seattle is much much further behind the curve there, and until they solve their amazing developmental issues (the sheer number of position players with very serious pedigrees who have just not developed under their watch is astounding), this is just a cynical attempt to put asses in seats, which will work for a few minutes until the 78-84 seasons start rolling in.

[User Name]

The Mariners are probably going to go all in now. If they trade for Price, sign a power hitter, and trade from their stable of young pitchers for another one, will you be singing the same tune?

[User Name]

Ells was a good signing ... FOR THE YANKEES. When you get to deals like this, it is useful to stop pretending that the purchase decision is the same for every team. Clearly the Yankees will benefit hugely from making the playoffs (in terms of the revenue streams they get to enjoy), and they just do not have a lot of impact position guys at the top of their system. While it is not reasonable to expect Ellsbury to have his 2011 power surge, it is MUCH more likely that he will be a double digit homerun sort in Yankee Stadium where his swing will allow for a number of lazy fly balls to turn into homeruns. With the free agents, the Yankees could see enough improvement to add 5-10 wins, and whatever $$/win function you want to assume - the Yankees is among the largest. It also allows the Yankees to take Gardner and possibly spin him for some farm help - it obviously is not a blue chipper, but Gardner clearly is a mid-level starting CF.

 

The Sox letting Ells go was a prudent business decision - for the Yankees, the signing is sensible too.

 

This is a logical fallacy. A bad signing is a bad signing. They grossly overpaid for Ellsbury and they probably didn't have to, since no one was touching even 6/120.

Edited December 6, 2013 by User Name?

[DirtDog]

looks like Jay Z called Yankees bluff...

 

in my opnion the west is wide open. if Ms trade some prospects for David Price they could be quite formidable. Felix/Price/Iwakuma is right up there with Verland/Scherzer/Sanchez imo

[sk7326]

This is a logical fallacy. A bad signing is a bad signing. They grossly overpaid for Ellsbury and they probably didn't have to, since no one was touching even 6/120.

 

Not at all - this ain't the NFL ... franchises have very different revenue profiles and situations. Yankees were an 86 win team a year ago which included some horrible injury luck. The marginal wins that McCann and Ellsbury and re-signing Kuroda could add have would make a large difference to the bottom line now and in the near future.

 

If they had the young controllable choices Boston had, they probably do something different. The Ellsbury deal would be crazier for another franchise that doesn't have the Yankees variables going for them. Of course, what they do at 2B will have a large impact here.

[User Name]

Not at all - this ain't the NFL ... franchises have very different revenue profiles and situations. Yankees were an 86 win team a year ago which included some horrible injury luck. The marginal wins that McCann and Ellsbury and re-signing Kuroda could add have would make a large difference to the bottom line now and in the near future.

 

If they had the young controllable choices Boston had, they probably do something different. The Ellsbury deal would be crazier for another franchise that doesn't have the Yankees variables going for them. Of course, what they do at 2B will have a large impact here.

 

Even though the Yankees have a financial advantage, they still have a spending ceiling, and this is indisputable. Paying "elite" player money to "very good talent" is never a sound business strategy, not even for the Yankees. If they operate in the financial stratosphere that you speak of, why let Seattle eat their lunch for Cano, and why simply not sign every major Free Agent that comes along, since winning should offset the cost of doing business? You know why? Because there's a limit, financially and roster wise. Read a couple pages back on this very thread so you can see my reasoning behind this.

[sk7326]

The Mariners are probably going to go all in now. If they trade for Price, sign a power hitter, and trade from their stable of young pitchers for another one, will you be singing the same tune?

 

If they did that, they become interesting. At the same time, do they have the prospect muscle to execute that strategy? That is an interesting situation.

 

Last year, they had - outside of Seager - ZERO position players who were even as good as Daniel Nava from an fWAR perspective. Their pitching staff of course was better, but their actual peripherals were nothing special. Iwakuma had a marvelous season bolstered by a BABIP which flies in the face of his previous career enough that the burden is on him to prove it's real. King Felix of course needs no defense. But the rest actually wasn't that good.

 

Boston's comeback from 69-93 to world champs was laudable - but there were the pieces of a good team there already. Seattle, outside of a couple of players, offers no such optimism yet.

[SoxSport]

looks like Jay Z called Yankees bluff...

 

in my opnion the west is wide open. if Ms trade some prospects for David Price they could be quite formidable. Felix/Price/Iwakuma is right up there with Verland/Scherzer/Sanchez imo

 

I understand this guy "Jay Z" is a Yankee fan--somewhat like that Hollywood guy who sits next to the Knicks bench every game wearing his team gear.

 

Could be what happened is Cano called him up and said "Man, what the f--k are you doing? Take the money--now!"

[Palodios]

This is a logical fallacy. A bad signing is a bad signing. They grossly overpaid for Ellsbury and they probably didn't have to, since no one was touching even 6/120.

 

I'm wondering if the Mariners may have been chasing.

[sk7326]

I'm wondering if the Mariners may have been chasing.

 

I think they are looking at the box office ... rebuild has been spinning their wheels and they feel some external pressure. Not that this is the most prudent reaction, but it is a rational one.

 

From a business view, obviously markets are different (duh). But not all wins are similar bang. The wins the Astros could get, the difference between 54-108 and say 70 wins, is basically zero revenue-wise. (this makes sense, either way the team sucks and is probably out of it by the ASB) No point in spending on veterans to get that improvement. But from 70 wins on up, that is different, and almost certainly non-linear. Cano is one of the top 10 players in all of baseball. He should crank out a few 6-7 win seasons and his skillset is such that he will probably persist as an overpaid but not bad player (see later years Todd Helton). But will wins 72-77 really earn them a lot? Probably very little - it doesn't affect playoff contention or such. They need their own kids to make up that gap, but their kids have shown very little evidence so far of doing that.

 

For the Yankees, trying to improve on an 85 win team, the wins are worth a lot comparatively. It means possible additional home games, and certainly improved gate, TV ratings etc etc. This is where spending makes sense - obviously they have basic affordability concerns like anybody else. The funds are not unlimited even if each player acquisition "makes sense" in a vacuum. Losing Cano hurts the Yanks quite a bit. Really means they are kind of more or less where they were last year even with Ellsbury. The business case for another big free agent is clearly there, but the names are getting short, and I don't know what they have to trade, if anything.

Edited December 6, 2013 by sk7326

[SoxSport]

I think they are looking at the box office ... rebuild has been spinning their wheels and they feel some external pressure. Not that this is the most prudent reaction, but it is a rational one.

 

 

Bingo. Their attendance has dropped in half the last 10 years. They figure to recoup some of Cano's salary in an attendance bump. Seattle is a rich town. Plenty of upscale potential season ticket holders--kind of like Boston.

 

They aren't through yet--Cano will attract other names.

[RedSoxNC84]

Even though the Yankees have a financial advantage, they still have a spending ceiling, and this is indisputable. Paying "elite" player money to "very good talent" is never a sound business strategy, not even for the Yankees. If they operate in the financial stratosphere that you speak of, why let Seattle eat their lunch for Cano, and why simply not sign every major Free Agent that comes along, since winning should offset the cost of doing business? You know why? Because there's a limit, financially and roster wise. Read a couple pages back on this very thread so you can see my reasoning behind this.

 

 

"Cano's departure will hurt the Yankees in the short term but it's "a victory for the organization," The New York Times' Tyler Kepner opines, since the team has learned to avoid handing out potential albatross contracts."

 

From MLBTR. It's funny that this is considered a potential albatross contract, but the Ellsbury contract isn't.

[reYoukilis]

How come teams aint learning from the teams who actually make it, or even win the World Series for chrisakes. How many of these teams spent zillions for one player? None. Teams like Red Sox, Cards, Giants, Texas, Phillies win with no namers practically. I mean look what happened when we went on a spending spree. We end up in last place. Who are our best players? Other than Papi, theyre all homegrown. Youk, Pedroia, Lester, Ellsbury....WTF!!

[SoxSport]

OK. Who should the Sox get next? Drew? Another outfielder? I wonder about Logan Morrison. Just became expendable with Marlins signing Garrett Jones. It took the Sox 10 minutes to inquire about him.

[seabeachfred]

OK. Who should the Sox get next? Drew? Another outfielder? I wonder about Logan Morrison. Just became expendable with Marlins signing Garrett Jones. It took the Sox 10 minutes to inquire about him.

 

Logan Morrison? Does he bat right handed? Can he play both CF and RF? Does he know he would be a fourth outfielder for us, even though we would most likely see enough action to keep him busy? I don't know all the answers to that but if it is a yes on all of them I say, sure, go for it. We don't need to make a big fancy trade for some hotshot with injury problems that would cost us good prospects and tie up a shitload of money. Someone clue me in. Does Logan meet those above requirements?

[Palodios]

Morrison is another lefthanded bat that can only stick at LF/1B. I'm still high on Denard Span -- he'll be cheap on money, but maybe not so much on prospects.

[a700hitter]

Morrison is another lefthanded bat that can only stick at LF/1B. I'm still high on Denard Span -- he'll be cheap on money, but maybe not so much on prospects.

Span is also left handed.

[Jasonbay44]

Am I missing something with Logan Morrison? Looking at his stats he doesn't seem very impressive to me.

[reYoukilis]

OK. Who should the Sox get next? Drew? Another outfielder? I wonder about Logan Morrison. Just became expendable with Marlins signing Garrett Jones. It took the Sox 10 minutes to inquire about him.

 

I like Drew. In the World Series his glove was great. His offense is better than it showed their but they won it with him which should be stat too. I like him at SS and Bogaerts at 3rd where Bogaerts saves more energy for offense. Drew is only 30 years old, I thought he was older.

 

What that means for Middlebrooks I dont know. I don't think we can keep all three.

 

Just looked at future prospects for 3rd base and saw Garin Cecchini. He's got damn good numbers and was drafted a year before Bradley and a year after Bogaert so could be close to ripe. So yeah that makes, in my eyes, Middlebrooks the odd man out even more.

 

The biggest question is center field. I would like Bradley to come out but in split duty with someone else. How about Nelson Cruz in right and Victorino in the middle, slowly bringing Bradley along?

[a700hitter]

I think the Sox need to add an OFer. Grandy and Beltran are off the table. Choo is a lefty. Are there any right handed FA Ofers available.

[reYoukilis]

Nelson Cruz, though coming with a big question mark attached concerning how much PED's contributed to his numbers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think the Sox need to add an OFer. Grandy and Beltran are off the table. Choo is a lefty. Are there any right handed FA Ofers available.

 

Rajai Davis hit .319/.383/.474 vs LHP last year, and you'd get those wheels back that you lost w Ells.

 

Wouldn't be the worst pick up the Sox could make, but again, I would like to see a little more pop from the OF

[seabeachfred]

I think the Sox need to add an OFer. Grandy and Beltran are off the table. Choo is a lefty. Are there any right handed FA Ofers available.

 

Morrison is out then.....as Ted says, we need a RH hitting outfielder who can play CF and spell Bradley for a rest or if he really struggles, but we must give the kid a full chance to show what he can do. No more extra ******** seasoning. When they're ready they play.

[Dojji]

I'm not so much worried about a righthanded hitting OF as I am just a plain ole garden variety backup.

 

For that kind of role, you could do a fair bit worse than Gregor Blanco. He's a lefty, but his splits are practically dead even, he's got some speed, plays all 3 OF positions and gets on base OK. I'd expect the Giants to be in on an upgrade at left field, since we have 3 left fielders right now I'd imagine we can get something done.

[RedSoxNC84]

I think the Sox need to add an OFer. Grandy and Beltran are off the table. Choo is a lefty. Are there any right handed FA Ofers available.

 

Franklin Gutierrez, Trevor Crowe is a switch hitter, Andres Torres another switch hitter, Jeff Francouer, Mike Morse, Jeff Baker, a few others..

 

Mike Morse to me is the most intriguing option of that group.

[User Name]

Rajai Davis hit .319/.383/.474 vs LHP last year, and you'd get those wheels back that you lost w Ells.

 

Wouldn't be the worst pick up the Sox could make, but again, I would like to see a little more pop from the OF

 

I nearly got burned at the stake for suggesting Davis earlier in the off-season.

 

Franklin Gutierrez, Trevor Crowe is a switch hitter, Andres Torres another switch hitter, Jeff Francouer, Mike Morse, Jeff Baker, a few others..

 

Mike Morse to me is the most intriguing option of that group.

 

Morse can't play anything other than LF, Francoeur can't hit anyone. Ditto for Crowe. Andres Torres is not a FA i believe. Gutierrez and Baker i both like.

[BSN07]

For all the pro's and con's I feel like Kemp might be in play for them. If they can get the AAV to around 17M I think it's worth the risk and a solid alternative to Ells. Davis is ot a bad low risk option tho either.

[jacksonianmarch]

The question is, are the sox willing to go past the LT? Abrahams latest iteration had the sox around $187 mil when including arb raises. That leaves them with $2 mil to play. Davis probably signs for that amount