Hot Stove 2013-2014

[rjortiz]

Mike Trout getting for a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension. Average annual value being $24 million.

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/28/report-angels-and-mike-trout-close-to-agreement-on-contract-extension/

 

Probably looking at a $31.5 million AAV for the free agent years. I can't believe that this is actually a bargain. How high can it go?

[seabeachfred]

Probably looking at a $31.5 million AAV for the free agent years. I can't believe that this is actually a bargain. How high can it go?

 

You ever seen Mike Trout play RJ? Believe me it's a bargain, one helluva bargain. $144.5 million for six years is a steal for the Angels because barring unforeseen circumstances Mike is going to be playing in the near prime to most of the prime of his career and will still be a young 29 when he enters the market again. The Angels were smart to lock him up because many of their fans were turning a jaundiced eye towards owner Arte Moreno in fear that he might close up his safe after the spending spree for Hamilton and before him Pujols, contracts in the multi-millions that have been disappointments......so far.

[Palodios]

Soooo......no 400 mill?

 

He'll still be into free agency at 28. We'll see what happens.

[sneaky_flute]

It's a fair deal for both parties but hardly the incredible discount that some are making it out to be. I'd be surprised if his AAV in free agency ever exceeded 35 million and it's unlikely that he'd get more than 60 million in arbitration (that's being generous).

[rjortiz]

It's a fair deal for both parties but hardly the incredible discount that some are making it out to be. I'd be surprised if his AAV in free agency ever exceeded 35 million and it's unlikely that he'd get more than 60 million in arbitration (that's being generous).

 

You are nuts. He was the actual MVP two years running. 10, 10.4 WAR at age 21 and 22. The cost per win is up to around $7 million, so you're looking at a player who was worth $140 million in value making $500 K in those two years. ZIPS has him at a projected 8.9 WAR in 2014, so that's another $63 million in value. He's a huge asset.

 

You are right about the arbitration. If he got $60 million, he'd set records in each year of arbitration. Good player to break the record with.

[Bellhorn04]

You are nuts. He was the actual MVP two years running. 10, 10.4 WAR at age 21 and 22. The cost per win is up to around $7 million, so you're looking at a player who was worth $140 million in value making $500 K in those two years. ZIPS has him at a projected 8.9 WAR in 2014, so that's another $63 million in value. He's a huge asset.

 

Where are you getting the $7 million per win number from? FanGraphs value per win for 2013 was not much over $5 million.

[sneaky_flute]

You are nuts. He was the actual MVP two years running. 10, 10.4 WAR at age 21 and 22. The cost per win is up to around $7 million, so you're looking at a player who was worth $140 million in value making $500 K in those two years. ZIPS has him at a projected 8.9 WAR in 2014, so that's another $63 million in value. He's a huge asset.

 

You are right about the arbitration. If he got $60 million, he'd set records in each year of arbitration. Good player to break the record with.

 

The use of theoretical WAR values to assess contracts only leads idiots like Dave Cameron to suggest that Trout would make 50 million a year in free agency.

 

I think Trout's career will wax and wane much like Alex Rodriguez's and he'll end up getting a 10-year, 300-million dollar contract at the age of 29.

[User Name]

The use of theoretical WAR values to assess contracts only leads idiots like Dave Cameron to suggest that Trout would make 50 million a year in free agency.

 

I think Trout's career will wax and wane much like Alex Rodriguez's and he'll end up getting a 10-year, 300-million dollar contract at the age of 29.

 

You do know some of the more SABR inclined FO's like to use WAR as a benchmark to appreciate current and future value when assigning FA contracts? Also, if Dave Cameron is an idiot, then the bar for intelligence has been set way too high for a lot of us to reach.

[sneaky_flute]

You do know some of the more SABR inclined FO's like to use WAR as a benchmark to appreciate current and future value when assigning FA contracts? Also, if Dave Cameron is an idiot, then the bar for intelligence has been set way too high for a lot of us to reach.

 

WAR values aren't linear and trends change. Also, no GM is going to look at Trout's performance and think, "Hmm 10 fWAR, multiply that by 6.2. Ok, let's give him a 10-year contract worth 600 million!"

[User Name]

WAR values aren't linear and trends change. Also, no GM is going to look at Trout's performance and think, "Hmm 10 fWAR, multiply that by 6.2. Ok, let's give him a 10-year contract worth 600 million!"

 

You've got it all wrong.

 

A) WAR values are not linear and they change according to various factors which would be too tiresome to explain here. They are detailed in the primer located at the FG website.

 

B ) Dave Cameron ( or anyone who knows how the $ value or WAR works for that matter) has never stated that there is or should be a direct correlation between FG's $ value and players' salaries. The tool is used as a guide for assessing relative market value, identifying industry (in this case constant inflation sadly) trends and for comparing value between players.

[rjortiz]

Where are you getting the $7 million per win number from? FanGraphs value per win for 2013 was not much over $5 million.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/

[Bellhorn04]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/

 

OK thanks. There are a few different writers and calculation methods mentioned in that piece. One guy came up with $7 million. Dave Cameron's is a little over $6 million.

[Behindenemylines]

I was a little surprised with the length of the Cabrera contract. For the Tigers this will end up looking like Albert's Angel contract. He is a big guy and I can see him having injury issues moving forward. To me the Trout contract makes a little more sense. If this guy keeps putting the numbers up he is going to make a lot of $$$$$ during his career.

[Bellhorn04]

The Trout contract makes plenty of sense for the Angels.

[a700hitter]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.mobi/25729/show/459e35a4cff156a69483d550c39c4885?t=psv61isodrdu6uhbk5tpvpdp93

 

Hanrahan is said to be ready. Has anyone heard anything about Andrew Baily's status with the Skanks?

[rjortiz]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.mobi/25729/show/459e35a4cff156a69483d550c39c4885?t=psv61isodrdu6uhbk5tpvpdp93

 

Hanrahan is said to be ready. Has anyone heard anything about Andrew Baily's status with the Skanks?

 

He's going to miss most the year with a torn labia, or maybe it was a torn labrum.

[a700hitter]

He's going to miss most the year with a torn labia, or maybe it was a torn labrum.

I believe that the correct medical terminology is J.D. Drew Syndrome.

[rjortiz]

I believe that the correct medical terminology is J.D. Drew Syndrome.

 

Isn't JD Drew Syndrome psychosomatic? Someone should start a petition to get that into DSM-VI.