Will Red Sox pursue Japanese Ace - Masahiro Tanaka?

[marklmw]

Both Barnes and Owens are plausible - De La Rosa less so, Ranaudo probably a better bullpen candidate. I am thinking they are much more inclined to look at one of the non-tenders like Hudson or Haren who can be had for short money or a year.

 

That said, kicking the tires on Brett Anderson is worthwhile - he is a gamble but if the cost is not too high, one with a very very high potential return.

 

The A's like your boy Anderson too

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/oakland-as-pick-up-club-options-for-brett-anderson-coco-crisp?ymd=20131101&content_id=63613138&vkey=news_mlb

 

We can always make a deal for him since half of the A's team are ex-Sox's

[sk7326]

The A's like your boy Anderson too

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/oakland-as-pick-up-club-options-for-brett-anderson-coco-crisp?ymd=20131101&content_id=63613138&vkey=news_mlb

 

We can always make a deal for him since half of the A's team are ex-Sox's

 

Of course they do - he has #1 stuff when he is healthy. That has not happened often. But the A's had no choice but to pick up the option. A 25 year old with his stuff and performance (note flashing neon "When Healthy" sign) is too valuable to let walk away for nothing. But if Oakland would take something outside of the absolute blue chippers (and we have depth to offer here), you have to look into it.

[jung]

Boy we are all clutching at straws here because the information we have on Tanaka is NPB based and sketchy and full of PR ********. However the one straw that I have held onto as maybe having some merit is that as positive as some of these reports want to be, they say that Tanaka is down on stuff from Darvish. The comments are made with such conviction that I have to believe we are not talking about just a tick or two of velo and movement but something decidedly noticeable. It is hard for me to envision a pitcher being the Ace or the 1 of a pretty good staff in this league that does not have elite stuff or at least does not start out that way.

 

You can point to American born pitchers that started out with really good stuff that gradually lost it and turned into very successful location and command pitchers but to me that is a different animal. That is a guy that is the pitching version of an Ortiz maybe. Somebody that learned how to pitch while his ability to throw declined. I rarely have much faith long term in the guys that are a bit down on stuff at an early age enjoying that sort of success over here although I fully acknowledge that it works better for pitchers over there.

 

My point being that I don't think that Tanaka's got an outside chance of being an Ace or a 1 on a good MLB staff but that his ceiling really is a 2 and that could easily mean he is a 3. It is true that we don't know much of anything about Tanaka's earlier career, how much he has been used etc etc. Not sure that not knowing helps the case for bringing him over here.

 

At least we know the Sox have been engaged in this sort of stuff before. They are not neophytes. The Sox have a very good international program and certainly their Asian arm is well documented as being fully engaged over there and a solid organizational asset. If they go after Tanaka or pass on him in either case I will likely take it for granted that they are exercising what is an organizational strength to its fullest.

[Dojji]

Don't sleep on Brandon Workman guys. He has the stuff to start in the bottom of a rotation, and he's got plenty of upside IMHO.

[mvp 78]

Your opinions are rarely humble, but I agree.

[sk7326]

Yeah, what I have read tracks about not having nearly the stuff Darvish has. On the other hand, Darvish might be the best "stuff" pitcher in the entire league - so I am not sure whether "not as good as Darvish" is really saying much. The commentary I have read in that direction make it much more about what Darvish has so much as Tanaka missing anything. There seems to be some consensus that his splitter is plus, the way you expect from most of the successful NPB guys. Certainly it seems like the control is there, and the radar guns have the fastball at least in the 89-92 sort of range. If a comp is prime Kuroda, that is not a bad place to be. Not a true ace, but nothing to sneeze at.

 

For me the red flag is his missing a month last season. Given how hard these guys are worked from an early age in Japan, there is some risk of whether that is a longer term thing. At the same time, there isn't a FA starter out there without major red flags. Just a matter of what you are willing to live with.

[jung]

Yeah, what I have read tracks about not having nearly the stuff Darvish has. On the other hand, Darvish might be the best "stuff" pitcher in the entire league - so I am not sure whether "not as good as Darvish" is really saying much. The commentary I have read in that direction make it much more about what Darvish has so much as Tanaka missing anything. There seems to be some consensus that his splitter is plus, the way you expect from most of the successful NPB guys. Certainly it seems like the control is there, and the radar guns have the fastball at least in the 89-92 sort of range. If a comp is prime Kuroda, that is not a bad place to be. Not a true ace, but nothing to sneeze at.

 

For me the red flag is his missing a month last season. Given how hard these guys are worked from an early age in Japan, there is some risk of whether that is a longer term thing. At the same time, there isn't a FA starter out there without major red flags. Just a matter of what you are willing to live with.

 

and of course the "what you can live with" is cost/performance over time.

 

Frankly I did not read the material as being necessarily descriptive of Darvish because nobody is trying to value Darvish who is already here and pitching. Heck all of these pieces that we are reading are about Tanaka who is not as yet here and pitching and who everybody is trying to value some way or another.

 

I think if Tanaka's stuff was that terrific, we would see it mentioned more prominently in these pieces. The overarching impression you get from reading them is that Tanaka is a very good version of the best the NPB has to offer. I have always felt that Darvish is the outlier to the typical NPB pitcher and I still think that is the case. Before Darvish came over if I am remembering it correctly, when you would go find a piece trying to provide the same sorts of inputs on Darvish that we are now seeing on Tanaka, the overarching impression you got was that this is a guy that you would swear was nurtured here and that had every bit the stuff you would expect of the very best of the pitchers that were born and bred in this system. I just don't see that coming through the Tanaka material at all. Although as I have already mentioned as usual what we are getting is sort of sketchy. Funny whenever I make an effort to read this stuff about some NPB pitcher or another the more different pieces I read, the less comfortable I become....Supposed to work the other way around. Should feel better about seeing a consensus the more stuff you piece together.:D

[Bellhorn04]

Don't sleep on Brandon Workman guys. He has the stuff to start in the bottom of a rotation, and he's got plenty of upside IMHO.

 

Nobody should sleep on Workman, and (sorry about this) Buchholz should sleep on nobody.

[Behindenemylines]

With six starters coming back, and 2 or 3 minor league starters ready for a shot I don't think the Sox go after Tanaka. If BC goes after any starters it will be veteran pitchers coming of an injury that can be signed short terms on the cheap. It will low risk high reward signings. Someone like a Tim Hudson.

[seabeachfred]

Boy we are all clutching at straws here because the information we have on Tanaka is NPB based and sketchy and full of PR ********. However the one straw that I have held onto as maybe having some merit is that as positive as some of these reports want to be, they say that Tanaka is down on stuff from Darvish. The comments are made with such conviction that I have to believe we are not talking about just a tick or two of velo and movement but something decidedly noticeable. It is hard for me to envision a pitcher being the Ace or the 1 of a pretty good staff in this league that does not have elite stuff or at least does not start out that way.

 

You can point to American born pitchers that started out with really good stuff that gradually lost it and turned into very successful location and command pitchers but to me that is a different animal. That is a guy that is the pitching version of an Ortiz maybe. Somebody that learned how to pitch while his ability to throw declined. I rarely have much faith long term in the guys that are a bit down on stuff at an early age enjoying that sort of success over here although I fully acknowledge that it works better for pitchers over there.

 

My point being that I don't think that Tanaka's got an outside chance of being an Ace or a 1 on a good MLB staff but that his ceiling really is a 2 and that could easily mean he is a 3. It is true that we don't know much of anything about Tanaka's earlier career, how much he has been used etc etc. Not sure that not knowing helps the case for bringing him over here.

 

At least we know the Sox have been engaged in this sort of stuff before. They are not neophytes. The Sox have a very good international program and certainly their Asian arm is well documented as being fully engaged over there and a solid organizational asset. If they go after Tanaka or pass on him in either case I will likely take it for granted that they are exercising what is an organizational strength to its fullest.

 

Hey Jung, it might be enlightening to find out just how much money the Red Sox have available or will make available for team improvements for 2014. How much money is coming off the books; how close are we to the luxury tax threshold. To me it's fun talking who we can get and how they would look on our team but if reality will set in for just a spell we also have to ask where is the money coming from for those who want McCann or Tanaka or some other high prized FA. That is something none of us know right now so all we can do is speculate. I think we are not going to go after either Tanaka nor McCann.

[sk7326]

and of course the "what you can live with" is cost/performance over time.

 

Frankly I did not read the material as being necessarily descriptive of Darvish because nobody is trying to value Darvish who is already here and pitching. Heck all of these pieces that we are reading are about Tanaka who is not as yet here and pitching and who everybody is trying to value some way or another.

 

I think if Tanaka's stuff was that terrific, we would see it mentioned more prominently in these pieces. The overarching impression you get from reading them is that Tanaka is a very good version of the best the NPB has to offer. I have always felt that Darvish is the outlier to the typical NPB pitcher and I still think that is the case. Before Darvish came over if I am remembering it correctly, when you would go find a piece trying to provide the same sorts of inputs on Darvish that we are now seeing on Tanaka, the overarching impression you got was that this is a guy that you would swear was nurtured here and that had every bit the stuff you would expect of the very best of the pitchers that were born and bred in this system. I just don't see that coming through the Tanaka material at all. Although as I have already mentioned as usual what we are getting is sort of sketchy. Funny whenever I make an effort to read this stuff about some NPB pitcher or another the more different pieces I read, the less comfortable I become....Supposed to work the other way around. Should feel better about seeing a consensus the more stuff you piece together.:D

 

Well with Darvish, you also had the live datapoint of how dominant he looked in the WBC - it wasn't grainy video, it was a dude making MLB hitters (in spring condition granted) look bad.

[sk7326]

Hey Jung, it might be enlightening to find out just how much money the Red Sox have available or will make available for team improvements for 2014. How much money is coming off the books; how close are we to the luxury tax threshold. To me it's fun talking who we can get and how they would look on our team but if reality will set in for just a spell we also have to ask where is the money coming from for those who want McCann or Tanaka or some other high prized FA. That is something none of us know right now so all we can do is speculate. I think we are not going to go after either Tanaka nor McCann.

 

The money? From the ticket prices, the influx of national TV money from the new contract, and the extra bump that NESN is going to get with the defending world champions ...

[jung]

The teams knew about the influx of money and still seem to have committed to not breach the LT cap, at least as far as the Sox and Spanks go. I think LA is the only team left that really does not give a crap about the LT cap even with the new penalties. In the case of LA, they are really on a mission and hoping that the more money they spend the more committed to winning championships they look to the fan base they are trying to attract.

 

The Sox have just won a championship. So I think they will remain committed to not busting through the LT cap. As for the Spanks, they are so f***ed that I don't think they believe busting through the LT cap is really going to do make a significant dif while costing a chunk of change given the new penalties. I think I agree with them. They are f***ed and busting through the LT Cap likely would be kinda' pointless until they can work their way up out of their current quagmire.

 

All by way of saying that I think the real amount of money the Sox have to spend or will spend is tied to the LT Cap. In fact one of the new penalties is that the TV revenue a team expects to get back is severely sliced.

Edited November 8, 2013 by jung

[Palodios]

Yankees front-runners for Tanaka, with a possibly 75-80 million dollar posting fee.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/yankees-making-tanaka-a-top-priority-wont-pursue-ervin-santana.html

[Bellhorn04]

Yankees front-runners for Tanaka, with a possibly 75-80 million dollar posting fee.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/yankees-making-tanaka-a-top-priority-wont-pursue-ervin-santana.html

 

75-80 million would be insane. Fee for Darvish, like Dice-K, was a little over 51 million.

[Palodios]

75-80 million would be insane. Fee for Darvish, like Dice-K, was a little over 51 million.

 

Tanaka seems like a perfect fit for the Yanks. They have money to spend, but they don't want to go above the luxury tax, they won't have to give up their low draft pick, they need a starter to replace Petite and or Kuroda. It just makes sense that it will happen.

[Bellhorn04]

Tanaka seems like a perfect fit for the Yanks. They have money to spend, but they don't want to go above the luxury tax, they won't have to give up their low draft pick, they need a starter to replace Petite and or Kuroda. It just makes sense that it will happen.

 

Agreed.

[jacksonianmarch]

Theyre gonna go insane. And it makes sense.

[seabeachfred]

Tanaka seems like a perfect fit for the Yanks. They have money to spend, but they don't want to go above the luxury tax, they won't have to give up their low draft pick, they need a starter to replace Petite and or Kuroda. It just makes sense that it will happen.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong Pal but he doesn't seem a perfect fit for us.

[marklmw]

Tanaka seems like a perfect fit for the Yanks. They have money to spend, but they don't want to go above the luxury tax, they won't have to give up their low draft pick, they need a starter to replace Petite and or Kuroda. It just makes sense that it will happen.

 

Then all the more reason for the Sox to go after him. Make your main rival weaker while making your team stronger ... it has a double effect.

[Palodios]

Then all the more reason for the Sox to go after him. Make your main rival weaker while making your team stronger ... it has a double effect.

 

What if it takes 150 million to get him? We've never seen a posting fee where an even heavier hitter was involved, like either the Yankees or Dodgers. At that rate, I'd rather sell the farm for Scherzer/Price, and re-up.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Palodios

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox ARE a heavy hitter.

[User Name]

The Red Sox ARE a heavy hitter.

 

And the Yankees were heavily involved in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes.....

[Palodios]

The Red Sox ARE a heavy hitter.

 

Poor word choice probably, but you know what I mean.

[Palodios]

And the Yankees were heavily involved in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes.....

 

Their bid was very short, wasn't it?

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to know where the 75-80 million posting fee estimate comes from. That just seems wrong. It'd be 50% more than the fee for Darvish, and by all accounts Tanaka is not as good as Darvish.

[Palodios]

I'd like to know where the 75-80 million posting fee estimate comes from. That just seems wrong. It'd be 50% more than the fee for Darvish, and by all accounts Tanaka is not as good as Darvish.

 

If a team wants Tanaka, it needs to outbid everyone else and has no idea how much everyone else is bidding (according to the current rules).

 

I also think that Dice-k may have influenced the bidding on Darvish. That contract was such a huge failure that teams may have been hesitant to bid too high. Darvish has arguably been a big success.

 

The Yankees reportedly big 30 million and 15 million on Dice-k and Darvish respectively. I doubt they stay down that low if they really want Tanaka.

[Station 13]

Would be lovely he stiff the Yankees and go LA. Don't they have a choice now among the top 3 bidders?

[Dojji]

Their bid was very short, wasn't it?

 

Only because the bidding process is blind.

[sk7326]

I'd like to know where the 75-80 million posting fee estimate comes from. That just seems wrong. It'd be 50% more than the fee for Darvish, and by all accounts Tanaka is not as good as Darvish.

 

Have to look at market inflation. It is more a supply-demand question than using a past pitcher comp.