2014 Roster Projections

[iortiz]

Neither stat offers much aside from being on a team that plays a lot of close games.

 

No? If you play a lot of close games and have a 2013 Bailey, it impacts even more. Look how many games we gave up because of this before Koji took the role and some were not even close games. As I said without Koji we wouldn't have won last year and if you rush me, we probably wouldn't have made POs.

[marklmw]

I know that I felt pretty dam good when Hoji entered a game last season.

[User Name]

....but you (iortiz) spent most of the season saying we couldn't trust Koji because he did not have closing experience. A lot of us countered that idea saying that Koji was an awesome set-up man, and that a good set-up man could also be a good closer, which you vehemently denied. You are proving your own point wrong.

[iortiz]

....but you (iortiz) spent most of the season saying we couldn't trust Koji because he did not have closing experience. A lot of us countered that idea saying that Koji was an awesome set-up man, and that a good set-up man could also be a good closer, which you vehemently denied. You are proving your own point wrong.

Hahaha this is ********, and as always taking my posts out of context. Good try.

[Bellhorn04]

Mariano Rivera and David Robertson saw 135 and 120 high-leverage AB's last season respectively. I bet that if you look around the league, that's what you'll see.

 

I checked Atlanta and Kimbrel was the leader by miles.

 

I will make a friendly bet that if we take all the closers and all the #1 setup men, the closers will have the edge. It'll be my project for the weekend.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Bellhorn04

[User Name]

Hahaha this is ********, and as always taking my posts out of context. Good try.

 

Yeah yeah this is what you always say when you get caught saying something stupid or flat-out wrong. Pathetic.

[User Name]

I checked Atlanta and Kimbrel was the leader by miles.

 

I will make a friendly bet that if we take all the closers and all the setup men, the closers will have the edge. It'll be my project for the weekend.

 

Well they should lead, given the fact that some teams have weak setup corps and have to rely much more on their closers. Atlanta is an example of this after they lost two of their late-inning relief options to injury.

 

The question is, what's the margin by which the closers lead? Because 15 PA's of high-leverage situations aren't enough to justify the mysticism of the legendary animal known as the closer.

[User Name]

Fittingly, Anthony Castrovince just posted the following article on the volatility of the closer position:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/anthony-castrovince-signing-free-agent-closers-too-tempting-for-mlb-teams?ymd=20131121&content_id=64090340&vkey=news_mlb

 

 

Here's a pretty interesting quote from it:

 

The final out of the World Series was recorded by Koji Uehara, the Boston closer who opened the season probably fourth on John Farrell's bullpen depth chart.

 

The bottom of the eighth inning was pitched by Trevor Rosenthal, the Cardinals closer thrust into the role only after Jason Motte got hurt and Edward Mujica flamed out late in the year.

 

In fact, of the 10 teams that reached the postseason, only four -- the Braves, Rays, Pirates and A's -- finished the season with the same closer they opened with.

 

Indeed, in a year in which Mariano Rivera gracefully bowed out of the ninth-inning job he so routinely dominated, baseball's biggest stage reminded us, convincingly, that the closer role is, with precious few exceptions (Rivera, of course, being the most prominent), a fungible and precarious position.

 

Therefore, it is, with precious few exceptions, an area in which it is all too easy to throw good money away. And as more and more teams come to accept this painfully clear concept, the free-agent market could become quite a bit less fruitful for the "proven" closer types clubs once fawned over.

[iortiz]

I know that I felt pretty dam good when Hoji entered a game last season.

 

How many 3+ outs SV situations did he convert last year?

 

As I said, only a few are this reliable at the last inning reason why they are key pieces in a team and mostly when you have a lot of doubts in your setup man as we had last year (sending the closer to convert even 5 outs).

[iortiz]

Yeah yeah this is what you always say when you get caught saying something stupid or flat-out wrong. Pathetic.

 

Nahhh I wasn't caught at nothing. You just love to bring horseshit to the table, that is certainly pathetic.

[User Name]

I didn't know we called the truth "horseshit" now.......i can't keep up with the slang kids use these days.

[SoxSport]

Koji down the stretch was as good as any reliever I've ever seen in 60 years.

[sk7326]

Man this is a real good post. However, i'll disagree on the value-added closing, since by your own definition, it varies wildly depending on what said closer is offering on a per-year basis.

 

I waffle as to whether it is repeatable or not - although clearly some relievers are better than others. But I think what I wanted to convey was that clearly managements across the game have compensated that position more than other bullpen slots. However, that sort of compensation should be reserved for guys with the ability to take on higher leverage work than simply "3 outs to hold a lead". Uehara clearly delivered on that level of performance this past season. But I have been consistent in pointing out that expecting him to repeat it (or Tazawa or Breslow) is not something management should be doing - the bullpen is a place of constant churn.

 

I think in 2006-2008 Papelbon was that sort of performer - stuff and results. But he faded since. Foulke had that sort of track record coming into his Boston tour and delivered (at least in 2004). So there is a difference in reliever quality, but that tier of reliever is a fairly small number.

[sk7326]

Koji down the stretch was as good as any reliever I've ever seen in 60 years.

 

He had an amazing run - there is no disputing that.

[User Name]

I waffle as to whether it is repeatable or not - although clearly some relievers are better than others. But I think what I wanted to convey was that clearly managements across the game have compensated that position more than other bullpen slots. However, that sort of compensation should be reserved for guys with the ability to take on higher leverage work than simply "3 outs to hold a lead". Uehara clearly delivered on that level of performance this past season. But I have been consistent in pointing out that expecting him to repeat it (or Tazawa or Breslow) is not something management should be doing - the bullpen is a place of constant churn.

 

I think in 2006-2008 Papelbon was that sort of performer - stuff and results. But he faded since. Foulke had that sort of track record coming into his Boston tour and delivered (at least in 2004). So there is a difference in reliever quality, but that tier of reliever is a fairly small number.

 

The cold, hard numbers show that teams, regardless of the closer, have protected ninth-inning leads at about a 95-percent clip going back five decades -- long before the concept of the closer as we know it today existed. So it's fair to wonder why a club would make a closer such a high-profile item on its shopping list.

 

The sabermetric argument against current bullpen-usage patterns is that teams ought to use their best relievers in the highest-leverage situations, regardless of what inning that happens to be. If you're Farrell, and you're protecting a one-run lead in the eighth with the meat of the opposition's order due up, the argument goes that you should use Uehara in the eighth and figure out the ninth later.

 

Castrovince agrees with you.

[sk7326]

No? If you play a lot of close games and have a 2013 Bailey, it impacts even more. Look how many games we gave up because of this before Koji took the role and some were not even close games. As I said without Koji we wouldn't have won last year and if you rush me, we probably wouldn't have made POs.

 

Koji had an amazing season, value commesurate with a #3 starter more than with a reliever. But that was wildly, exceedingly, rare. By pooh poohing the closer, I am not dismissing Koji's work. I am pointing out that LOTS of terrific teams, teams that won titles, got WAY less out of that position and it didn't matter a lick.

[sk7326]

Castrovince agrees with you.

 

The way Tampa has turned other team's trash into closer treasure should be evidence in my corner. Also, btw: Atlanta should be fielding offers on Craig Kimbrel right now.

[User Name]

The way Tampa has turned other team's trash into closer treasure should be evidence in my corner. Also, btw: Atlanta should be fielding offers on Craig Kimbrel right now.

 

Yeah Oakland and Tampa are the two teams i usually use as examples in this argument. I think Oakland clearly wins the battle of turning any good reliever into a closer, since they actually managed to turn Tampa's own ex-reliever (Balfour) into an effective closer.

[Palodios]

Speaking of Tampa, it seems to me that the overhaul of the qualifying offer system is going to really hurt them in the years ahead. After years of giving relievers type A and type B offers -- to see them reject -- their prospect pool is going to end up much more shallow than in the past.

 

One #20 pick, and a competitive balance, and that's it? How are they supposed to churn out aces every year like that? Oh well, they can always defile other teams in trades.

[iortiz]

Koji had an amazing season, value commesurate with a #3 starter more than with a reliever. But that was wildly, exceedingly, rare. By pooh poohing the closer, I am not dismissing Koji's work. I am pointing out that LOTS of terrific teams, teams that won titles, got WAY less out of that position and it didn't matter a lick.

 

And a lot of terrific teams won a lot of games because had gems at 9th inning and without them wouldn't have won, we are a clear example.

 

I understand your point. You don't give the value that some of us give to a closer. I simply disagree SK, I already rest my point, It is my opinion and I won't try to change yours.

[iortiz]

Koji down the stretch was as good as any reliever I've ever seen in 60 years.

 

Lester pitched gems and Ortiz hit like he wasn't human but IMO Koji was the masterpiece that we needed to win last Championship.

[Bellhorn04]

SO, with that being said, closers now are essentially like how running backs have evolved in the NFL. You need a running back, but it doesn't matter as much who he is. He can be Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, whomever. The team structure is more important. Now there are a few RBs (like closers) who can do a heavier lift - THOSE guys, yeah, are real value adds. The Red Sox in their three title runs were blessed with true value-added closers, in Foulke, early Papelbon, and Uehara last year. Value-added closing is very hard to find, and Rivera was one of them. But Bobby Jenks wasn't, and Sergio Romo isn't, and 2006 Adam Wainwright wasn't.

 

But Wainwright, who was the emergency closer in 2006, had 9.2 scoreless innings that postseason.

 

Here's a question/challenge: when was the last time a team won the World Series in spite of their closer pitching poorly in that postseason?

[Palodios]

But Wainwright, who was the emergency closer in 2006, had 9.2 scoreless innings that postseason.

 

Here's a question/challenge: when was the last time a team won the World Series in spite of their closer pitching poorly in that postseason?

 

Does Eric Gagne count?

[Bellhorn04]

Does Eric Gagne count?

 

Definitely not.

[Dojji]

Yeah Oakland and Tampa are the two teams i usually use as examples in this argument. I think Oakland clearly wins the battle of turning any good reliever into a closer, since they actually managed to turn Tampa's own ex-reliever (Balfour) into an effective closer.

 

While true, when was the last time either Tampa or Oakland won the World Series?

 

They're great at doing the regular season on the cheap, but when the chips are down, their cheapout tactics don't leave them the depth or internal fortitude to weather problems.

[Dojji]

But Wainwright, who was the emergency closer in 2006, had 9.2 scoreless innings that postseason.

 

Here's a question/challenge: when was the last time a team won the World Series in spite of their closer pitching poorly in that postseason?

 

Tigers, probably.

 

Anyone who wants to think that the closer's role isn't highly significant must be selectively blocking all memories of Calvin Schiraldi. Having your late inning guys go unstrung on you is a luxury a team can't afford once the playoffs are underway.

 

And it's hardly just the closer. you need multiple guys you can go to in late innings. Uehara wouldn't have meant much if we hadn't had Tazawa, Breslow and Workman to help get the game to him. If Uehara had been injured, say, then Tazawa is probably your closer and he would probably have been sufficient. And if Uehara is injured or not his old self next year, that's probably exactly what happens.

 

This much I'll give to the closer skeptics: If paying a big salary for your closer precludes bringing in multiple solid setup options, then it's the wrong thing to do. you need to stack depth in the bullpen just like anywhere else.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

Tigers, probably.

 

The 1984 Tigers?

[User Name]

While true, when was the last time either Tampa or Oakland won the World Series?

 

They're great at doing the regular season on the cheap, but when the chips are down, their cheapout tactics don't leave them the depth or internal fortitude to weather problems.

 

This makes zero sense. Lack of a reliable closer isn't the reason neither of them has won a WS this decade. Hell, they've made the postseason several times between the two of them with elite closers without winning jack squat.

 

Tigers, probably.

 

Anyone who wants to think that the closer's role isn't highly significant must be selectively blocking all memories of Calvin Schiraldi. Having your late inning guys go unstrung on you is a luxury a team can't afford once the playoffs are underway.

 

Quite annoying to see those who clearly didn't believe Koji could get it done because he "lacked experience" are now jumping on the bandwagon and trying to use him to prove a point.

 

And it's hardly just the closer. you need multiple guys you can go to in late innings. Uehara wouldn't have meant much if we hadn't had Tazawa, Breslow and Workman to help get the game to him. If Uehara had been injured, say, then Tazawa is probably your closer and he would probably have been sufficient. And if Uehara is injured or not his old self next year, that's probably exactly what happens.

 

This much I'll give to the closer skeptics: If paying a big salary for your closer precludes bringing in multiple solid setup options, then it's the wrong thing to do. you need to stack depth in the bullpen just like anywhere else.

 

This, however, makes more sense, but is still misguided to an extent. The closer is important, yes, but having several go-to guys in the BP is even more important, as you present here. Even though he shat all over himself in the WS, the Sox don't even make it without Craig Breslow's and Brandon Workman's contributions, the unsung heroes of the post-season.

 

I was the "Koji-for-closer" club's leader all season long, so it's not like i'm discounting his dominance. He would have been just as important, however, in a relief-ace role instead of the annointed "closer" tag based on an archaic, nearly-meaningless stat.

[Dojji]

The closer v relief ace argument is an utter red herring. It's an argument about how to make a bad bullpen do the least damage to your team's chances to win, when the solution is to get a good bullpen.

 

If you don't have enough talented bullpen arms to both close out the 9th, and cover the preceding innings sufficiently to consistently to hold leads, it literally does not matter which of those two bullpen imperatives you short change. Either one is going to bite you in the tail 5-10 times a year which is going to make the difference between playoffs or not, and each one is going to be a good bet to cost you bigtime in the playoffs at least once as well unless you have talented go-to people to handle every situation.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

Then the real important piece isn't the closer, but rather a combo of late-inning arms you can count on in pressure situations. That's an entirely different animal.