2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

Damon got 52 million. Ellsbury is projected to get more than double that. The difference in financial risk is huge.

 

The presumed difference in financial risk needs to realize that 2005 was nearly decade ago. The luxury tax has increased by roughly 50% since then, so 16 million a year is the same as a 24 million cap hit nowadays.

 

You're also looking at years 32-36 of one player, and 30-36 of another. Adjusted for the growth of baseball and inflation, you're really only paying more for ages 30 and 31.

 

Then there is the actual production. Ellsbury is a significantly better player when on the field. Damon's best two seasons produced a 4.5 and a 4.3 fWAR, whereas Ellsbury produced a 9.1 and 5.8 fWar.

[marklmw]

Even if you decide that Ells injury history is freaky which I at best only in part believe might be true, you have him playing CF. While CF is a big piece of the total value package Ells represents, CF chews up the best athletes in baseball. It grinds them to dust over time and there is little that I see in Ells that tells me he will avoid that. CF compounds the problem of basically relying on his athleticism to such a great degree. Athleticism is part and parcel of the game that Ells plays. As such while 29 sounds young, ain't necessarily so for a CF that is as reliant on maintaining his athleticism as Ells. If he had an arm, then he could transition to RF when he was done with Center or I should say when Center is done with him. As it is now, its basically LF for Ells when he is done in Center.

 

Ellsbury can transition to left in years 4-6 especially if JBJ develops. With Ellsbury we have a legit chance to be contenders for the next 3 years. JBJ can also give Ellsbury some nights off. Ellsbury can still lead off and snag 25+ bases for the next 6 years.

You keep talking about Ellsbury's athleticism ... I have no idea what you are talking about. He is an athlete.

[Bellhorn04]

The presumed difference in financial risk needs to realize that 2005 was nearly decade ago. The luxury tax has increased by roughly 50% since then, so 16 million a year is the same as a 24 million cap hit nowadays.

 

The Yankees overpaid on that deal though. I don't think the increase in this particular type of contract has been that great. Victorino got 13 million and his overall production/WAR would be similar to Damon's.

[sk7326]

I think the Victorino deal was a bit of an overpay too - but it turned out very well thankfully. Comparing Ellsbury to Damon, you basically have a couple of things in Ellsbury's favor:

 

1. Ellsbury is 2 years younger than Damon was

2. Defensive measurement is light years ahead of where it was in 2005. There are more ways to quantify how Ellsbury is a better player than Johnny Damon (which he is)

 

Now the second thing is a plus and minus ... a plus in that it is a large advantage, but it might not be one that lasts in 3 years. The injuries really affect Ellsbury's valuation ultimately.

Edited November 19, 2013 by sk7326

[Bellhorn04]

Also re: inflation, the Yankees payroll for 2005 was higher than it was for 2012. Things have been crazy for longer than we realize.

[Palodios]

The Yankees overpaid on that deal though.

 

And whoever gets Ellsbury will overpay for him too.

[sk7326]

Also re: inflation, the Yankees payroll for 2005 was higher than it was for 2012. Things have been crazy for longer than we realize.

 

Well the Yankees have been an outlier for years (as have, to be fair, we). I think the "everybody else" is where the inflation has come from.

[Bellhorn04]

If you are interested in payroll numbers, check out this graphic tool, I just found it. It's pretty cool.

 

http://mrphilroth.com/mlbpayrolls/

[Palodios]

Also re: inflation, the Yankees payroll for 2005 was higher than it was for 2012. Things have been crazy for longer than we realize.

 

The Red Sox tend to float around the luxury cap though. They bend along with it, but never break it. The luxury tax in 2005 was 128, this year it is 189. 16 million against the cap then is worth 24.3 million in spending power now.

[Bellhorn04]

And the fact we're so tight to the cap this year (mainly because of the increased cost of the rotation) is what makes signing Ellsbury all the more difficult.

[seabeachfred]

TIL, growing up in CA means you're astute!

 

The Kardashians thank you.

 

So do the young men and women at Cal Tech. Can't help myself.....I'm very provincial

[seabeachfred]

According to Phillies fans on twitter, they need to reassemble the 2009 team.

 

And maybe the Phillies fans are no smarter than GM Amaro Jr. for signing Ruiz to that contract. What they should want is the reassembling of the 2008 team. That was the one that won it all.

[mvp 78]

So do the young men and women at Cal Tech. Can't help myself.....I'm very provincial

 

Cal Tech is a nice little school, but my gramps went to a better one in Cambridge.

Edited November 19, 2013 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

And maybe the Phillies fans are no smarter than GM Amaro Jr. for signing Ruiz to that contract. What they should want is the reassembling of the 2008 team. That was the one that won it all.

 

@jbplainblog: Keep '09 team together long enough, they're bound to win again eventually MT @magelb: Phillies keep Carlos Ruiz 3-year, $26M

[seabeachfred]

Cal Te h is a nice little school, but my gramps went to a better one in Cambridge.

 

Kudos to your granddad! HAAAVVIIIDDD is quite a place. Truth be told, I always wished I could have gone there.

[mvp 78]

Kudos to your granddad! HAAAVVIIIDDD is quite a place. Truth be told, I always wished I could have gone there.

 

Harvard is a joke university that gave GWB a degree when his nose spent more time in a pile of coke than in his books. I wasn't talking about that overpriced hole.

[marklmw]

And the fact we're so tight to the cap this year (mainly because of the increased cost of the rotation) is what makes signing Ellsbury all the more difficult.

How are we tight on the cap this year ... I do not understand really.

Minus Hanrahan - 7M

Minus Bailey - 4M

Minus Dempster - 13M

Minus Drew - 10M

 

Total -34M

 

Ellsbury 2013 Salary = 9M 18M- 9M = + 9M

 

Salty, Ross, & Napoli = 20M

 

Help me here ... what am I missing?

[Palodios]

How are we tight on the cap this year ... I do not understand really.

Minus Hanrahan - 7M

Minus Bailey - 4M

Minus Dempster - 13M

Minus Drew - 10M

 

Total -34M

 

Ellsbury 2013 Salary = 9M 18M- 9M = + 9M

 

Salty, Ross, & Napoli = 20M

 

Help me here ... what am I missing?

 

Aceves - 2.65M

10M + roughly for Pedroia.

14.5M + for Peavy.

Abitration raises.

[marklmw]

Harvard is a joke university that gave GWB a degree when his nose spent more time in a pile of coke than in his books. I wasn't talking about that overpriced hole.

Are you talking about Bush ... he went to Yale. Obama was a drug user too!

[marklmw]

Aceves - 2.65M

10M + roughly for Pedroia.

14.5M + for Peavy.

Abitration raises.

 

Isn't Pedroia plus 4? I think we have space for Ell's

[User Name]

Isn't Pedroia plus 4? I think we have space for Ell's

 

The Sox have 32 million in cap space according Alex Speier's calculations. Unless the Sox can get Ellsbury on a reasonable deal, no they don't.

[Palodios]

Isn't Pedroia plus 4? I think we have space for Ell's

 

No idea, that was a complete guess.

[Palodios]

So what was up with extending Pedroia at the end of last year? Extending him at the beginning of the season would have saved cap room.

[marklmw]

The Sox have 32 million in cap space according Alex Speier's calculations. Unless the Sox can get Ellsbury on a reasonable deal, no they don't.

I assume the 32M does not include dumping Dempster?

[marklmw]

So what was up with extending Pedroia at the end of last year? Extending him at the beginning of the season would have saved cap room.

 

Well from Pedroia's point of view better to get the contract completed in case of a career ending injury.

[SoxSport]

It doesn't make much sense to me for the Red Sox to be signing older players at this point. They held the line with Ruiz at 2 yrs. He is 35. Clearly, they valued his defense. I don't know what that means for Salty. Everybody likes the kid, but there are better defensive catchers around. I'd like to see him platooned at 1B, where he might be an even better hitter. You have to wonder if anybody has thought of that.

 

I don't see a Boras type contract for Ells in Boston. He is somewhat fragile, doesn't walk enough for a leadoff batter, and hasn't shown consistent power. I don't know what that 30 HR year was all about. You never know in this day and age.

 

I think a key for them is to re-sign Napoli. He and Gomes supply a lot of the RHd power. It remains for X and MBrooks to change that. As for dealing pitchers, the one guy they need to unload is Dempster. The rest should stay.

[seabeachfred]

Harvard is a joke university that gave GWB a degree when his nose spent more time in a pile of coke than in his books. I wasn't talking about that overpriced hole.

 

We must not be talking about the same Harvard. To me that was one of the elite universities in the country. When a classmate of mine Jack Shershow was accepted there and graduated from there I was envious as hell. He became a surgeon in New York. I became a teacher and coach but I would have given anything to have had the ability to get into Harvard. Why you hold it in such low esteem is beyond me.

[jung]

You keep talking about Ellsbury's athleticism ... I have no idea what you are talking about. He is an athlete.

 

Simple...Ells game is far more dependent on athleticism that it is on specific baseball skills. This is not an unusual nor even rare phenomenon as it relates to baseball players. However as his athleticism declines it is more telling for a player like Ells because he does not have assets to replace it. Ells can easily turn into a very mid-pack average player, way overcompensated as he ages and his athleticism declines.

 

In part this is why somebody commented about not seeing many players not named Ricky Henderson that were that reliant on their athleticism to carry their baseball careers that remained effective enough to justify big paychecks later in their careers.

 

Does Ells look like he will turn into a 3 or 4 spot hitter knocking balls out of the park late in his career for example?....No. Can he throw, allowing for a transition to RF making him more valuable later in his career as his athletic skills decline?.....No. Hitting the ball out of the park is a baseball skill more than it is an athletic skill. Throwing the ball is more of a baseball skill than it is an athletic skill. Ells can't throw because nobody bothered to teach him how and he never learned. All you have to do is watch him throw to know that.

Edited November 19, 2013 by jung

[User Name]

Saying Ells can't throw because nobody taught him is a load of bull. Some guys just have weak arms.

[mvp 78]

Are you talking about Bush ... he went to Yale. Obama was a drug user too!

 

"Beginning in the fall of 1973, Bush attended the Harvard Business School, where he earned a Master of Business Administration. He is the only U.S. President to have earned an M.B.A.[39]"