2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

I keep forgetting that almost all of the free agent firstbasemen are right handed -- making a Mike Carp platoon a bit more palatable.

 

Netting 4 first round draft picks and signing Corey Hart would be a very interesting move. He won't cost a pick, and next winter he'll probably end up being QO-material as well. Worst case scenario, he splits time with Carp in a platoon situation. That career line of .300/.370/.526/.896 against lefties is nice, but his potential to be a righthanded bat with 30 HR and 100 RBI behind Ortiz is moreso.

[marklmw]

I keep forgetting that almost all of the free agent firstbasemen are right handed -- making a Mike Carp platoon a bit more palatable.

 

Netting 4 first round draft picks and signing Corey Hart would be a very interesting move. He won't cost a pick, and next winter he'll probably end up being QO-material as well. Worst case scenario, he splits time with Carp in a platoon situation. That career line of .300/.370/.526/.896 against lefties is nice, but his potential to be a righthanded bat with 30 HR and 100 RBI behind Ortiz is moreso.

It would be quite the move indeed. Imagine a Carp / Hart tandem producing Napoli type numbers for less money. Getting a comp pick for Napoli and a comp pick for Hart one year later. That all sounds very appealing. Re-signing Nap's sounds appealing as well. There are options.

[seabeachfred]

In before all the "wake up Ben" comments

 

That was me and I regret I even said that. Fact is almost all of the free agents are going to be playing ping pong this winter trying to ascertain how much money is out there and doing a round-robin team tournament before putting their name on the dotted line. What irritated me was all those names that were bandied about but when I went lurking on other teams boards I found the same thing there. All kinds of names thrown out and all sorts of questions from fans like us just what who their respective teams were after. That spoke volumes that we weren't alone out there. I just hope we can keep most of this crew together, add a couple of young rookies into our everyday lineup and keep the talent flow coming. Hell, we're the only baseball fans really celebrating this year, though truth be told when summer hit last June I would have been just satisfied with an AL East Title but instead we all got the Big Cahoona.

[Cocos Disciples]

Here's what I would do:

 

-Let Ellsbury, Drew and Salty go.

-Re-sign Napoli, or Corey Hart if Napoli leaves.

-Sign Carlos Ruiz for 2/20.

-Sign Ryan Madson for 1/1 with incentives--potential for a good bullpen find here, even though he hasn't pitched since 2011.

-Trade Dempster somewhere for salary relief and a mid-level prospect

 

So:

C-Ruiz

1B-Napoli

2B-Pedroia

SS-Bogaerts

3B-Middlebrooks

LF-Nava/Gomes

CF-Bradley

RF-Victorino

DH-Ortiz

 

SP-Lester

SP-Buchholz

SP-Lackey

SP-Peavy

SP-Doubront

 

CP-Uehara

SU-Tazawa

MR-Breslow

MR-Workman

MR-Madson

MR-Morales

MR-Miller

 

B-Ross

B-Carp

B-Holt

B-Gomes

[Dojji]

I can understand the fascination with Ruiz but I do not share it. We have too many talented young catchers that are going to start wasting away in the minors if we don't give each of them a decent shot within the next couple years. We need to give one of Lavarnway, Vazquez and Butler a real chance to earn a job at the big league level almost immediately, or we're wasting talent.

[seabeachfred]

I can understand the fascination with Ruiz but I do not share it. We have too many talented young catchers that are going to start wasting away in the minors if we don't give each of them a decent shot within the next couple years. We need to give one of Lavarnway, Vazquez and Butler a real chance to earn a job at the big league level almost immediately, or we're wasting talent.

 

I agree with that Dojii. There must be no blocking of our young talented prospects. If we've guessed wrong with some of them we will be guessing right with some as well. If our minor league system is as good as reported there is no reason to keep people like Lavarnway, Vazquez and Butler chained down in either Pawtucket or Portland-----and there must be a clear path for Blake Swihart to take over as our regular catcher as soon as he is ready instead of this more "damn seasoning" that we always hear Lucchino muttering about. I've said if before, if we lose Salty I would like to see Ryan get a shot. He is capable of hitting 25-30 homers and his defense has improved over the past couple of years and could favorably compare with that of Jarrod. It's only my opinion but if we let this guy go he will go elsewhere and become a very solid player and strong power hitter. Give the guy a chance. We don't need any 35 year old greybeard holding up the progress of any of our "kids". Besides, the Phillies no longer want him. Isn't that some type of hint or red flag right there?

[marklmw]

Here's what I would do:

 

-Let Ellsbury, Drew and Salty go.

-Re-sign Napoli, or Corey Hart if Napoli leaves.

-Sign Carlos Ruiz for 2/20.

-Sign Ryan Madson for 1/1 with incentives--potential for a good bullpen find here, even though he hasn't pitched since 2011.

-Trade Dempster somewhere for salary relief and a mid-level prospect

 

So:

C-Ruiz

1B-Napoli

2B-Pedroia

SS-Bogaerts

3B-Middlebrooks

LF-Nava/Gomes

CF-Bradley

RF-Victorino

DH-Ortiz

 

SP-Lester

SP-Buchholz

SP-Lackey

SP-Peavy

SP-Doubront

 

CP-Uehara

SU-Tazawa

MR-Breslow

MR-Workman

MR-Madson

MR-Morales

MR-Miller

 

B-Ross

B-Carp

B-Holt

B-Gomes

 

10M per for Ruiz does seem excessive

[User Name]

I agree with that Dojii. There must be no blocking of our young talented prospects. If we've guessed wrong with some of them we will be guessing right with some as well. If our minor league system is as good as reported there is no reason to keep people like Lavarnway, Vazquez and Butler chained down in either Pawtucket or Portland-----and there must be a clear path for Blake Swihart to take over as our regular catcher as soon as he is ready instead of this more "damn seasoning" that we always hear Lucchino muttering about. I've said if before, if we lose Salty I would like to see Ryan get a shot. He is capable of hitting 25-30 homers and his defense has improved over the past couple of years and could favorably compare with that of Jarrod. It's only my opinion but if we let this guy go he will go elsewhere and become a very solid player and strong power hitter. Give the guy a chance. We don't need any 35 year old greybeard holding up the progress of any of our "kids". Besides, the Phillies no longer want him. Isn't that some type of hint or red flag right there?

 

The Phillies offered Ruiz 2/20. Lavarnway is not a good defensive catcher, Butler profiles as a backup, and Vasquez/Swihart need at least another year in the minors. That "damn seasoning" Lucchino keeps talking about comes from the scouting and statistical analysis from an organization who knows a hell of a lot more about these prospects (or prospects in general) than any of us do.

[mvp 78]

Ben is a boob and he doesn't know what to do!

[Dojji]

The Phillies offered Ruiz 2/20.

 

Not exactly backing up the truck for a player with Ruiz's demonstrated skill level.

 

Lavarnway is not a good defensive catcher, Butler profiles as a backup, and Vasquez/Swihart need at least another year in the minors.

 

Lavarnway isn't so bad defensively that his bat can't hide it.

 

Butler does in fact profile as a backup but he has demonstrated the potential to hit, is above average defensively, and is going into his age 27 season so he NEEDS to have a look next year, and if he DOES hit at the big league level (no guarantees, but you can't rule it out sight unseen) then he probably could grow into the starting role given the chance.

 

As for Christian Vazquez, there's not much more that he can learn that another year in the minors is going to teach him (that extra year in Pawtucket is not going to make him hit for power, sorry to be the one to break the news to you).

 

Swihart enters the picture more when talking about multi-year deals for a guy like McCann, since he'll be ready sometime in the next 2 years.

 

That "damn seasoning" Lucchino keeps talking about comes from the scouting and statistical analysis from an organization who knows a hell of a lot more about these prospects (or prospects in general) than any of us do.

 

That would be a more persuasive argument if we knew the team was looking seriously to add a veteran catcher

Edited November 17, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

Dojji, have you been reading off-season rumors at all?

 

On the Ruiz point: At least four teams are pursuing him, with two teams (COL and PHI) already throwing out multi-year offers.

 

On the "if we knew the Sox were actively looking for a veteran catcher": It's well known they are suitors for both Ruiz and McCann. This is common knowledge.

[User Name]

This is absolutely perplexing to me. The two rookies who are considered by most talent evaluators and sportswriters, and well, everyone, to be ready for the show are JBJ and XB.

 

The stable of MiLB catchers either have serious flaws (Lavarnway is an awful catcher and hasn't proven anything, while Butler profiles as a backup) or need more seasoning per basically anyone's account (soxprospects is a homer site, and has Vasquez mid-2014 and Swihart 2016).

 

However, Dojji wants no part of handing JBJ CF, yet would be comfortable handing the most important position on the diamond to a player who's either not good enough, needs more rep, or isn't even ready for the show).

 

I just don't get it.

[marklmw]

It would not break my heart if we entered spring training with only Ross signed for 2014. Have a nice competition between Ross, Lavarnway, Butler and Vazquez

[dupree]

I would like Salty to sign for a 3 year deal. Salty to be primary catcher in 2014 with Ross as his backup. Then in 2015 Salty can have a competition with Lav, Vazquez, and Butler. Just not comfortable moving into next year with Ross as the primary catcher. Out of the 3 prospects I like Lav the most. I think he power numbers will be equal to what Salty provides. It all depends if Salty prices himself out of Boston.

[Hoplite]

Another idea.

 

1. Bid $71 million for Mashairo Tanaka. Offer him a 6 year/$54 million deal.

 

2. Shop Felix Doubront around. Maybe a trade could be worked out with the Padres with Doubront, Middlebrooks and Workman in return for Chase Headley. Or maybe a trade could be worked out with the Cubs for Luis Valbuena and Pedro Strop.

 

3. Offer one of Britton, Brentz or Hassan for Ryan Hanigan. Alternatively, offer 1 year/$2 million deal to Dioner Navarro.

 

4. Offer Corey Hart 1 year/$8 million deal. Alternatively, offer Mike Napoli 2 year/$26 million deal. Alternatively, offer Jeff Baker a 2 year/$8 million deal and platoon him with Mike Carp.

 

5. If a deal for a third baseman was unable to be worked out, offer Juan Uribe a 2 year/$12 million deal. Alternatively, offer Jerry Hairston Jr. a 1 year/$3 million deal.

 

6. If there’s money left over (which there would be if Headley isn’t acquired or Hart is signed) offer a 1 year/$3 million minor league deal for Colby Lewis. I’d offer a similar deal to Grady Sizemore if there’s still money left over. Anyone who could provide some extra production or net a draft pick next year would be worth looking at. If Tanaka was signed and Doubront was traded, that would still leave us with 6 starters. If need be, one of them could be traded to free up more salary room. We don’t need to save any room for a Lester extension, because if we were to extend him we’d do it after the start of the season so he wouldn’t count against this year’s luxury tax hit.

[seabeachfred]

The Phillies offered Ruiz 2/20. Lavarnway is not a good defensive catcher, Butler profiles as a backup, and Vasquez/Swihart need at least another year in the minors. That "damn seasoning" Lucchino keeps talking about comes from the scouting and statistical analysis from an organization who knows a hell of a lot more about these prospects (or prospects in general) than any of us do.

 

Speak for yourself User!!!!! I take it you haven't much in the way of baseball playing experience and you sure as hell don 't have any in scouting whatsoever. I do!!!!! I scouted for scouts!!!!! So I know a little about judging talent and for your damn record ( I think for the third time) I had three chance to become a full time scout which I rejected because I didn't want to travel all the hell around my section of the state seeing parts of three or four games a day and then writing long and tedious reports and I don't give a s*** if you believe that or not. Point is, I consider myself a fair judge of talent and IT IS MY OPINION that Lavarnway would be more than adequate as a catcher for us, as good as Salty if we don't sign him, and, what's more, he would be a threat to hit between 25-30 homers for us. As for this statistical analysis you keep harping on, it doesn't come from that at all. One of the sticking points of conflict between Lucchino and Epstein when he was with us was the difference each had over how ready a player was for the Red Sox, and let me remind you (again) was that in both Pedroia's and Ellsbury's cases it was Theo who said they were ready and Lucchino who said "more seasoning" and not any damn statistical analysis. And for the further record, I know two Red Sox scouts where I live very well and both corroborated what I've just told you (probably for the third or fourth time).

 

You seem very ready to criticize what others say as if you're some damn know it all and if you want to say the scouts know more than you do that's fine but don't tell that to me because I've done that kind of work. You might also know that it gets tedious hearing you pan iortiz, Dojii and Sox Sport like you're the dispenser of all worldy knowledge. You're not.

[User Name]

Speak for yourself User!!!!! I take it you haven't much in the way of baseball playing experience and you sure as hell don 't have any in scouting whatsoever. I do!!!!! I scouted for scouts!!!!! So I know a little about judging talent and for your damn record ( I think for the third time) I had three chance to become a full time scout which I rejected because I didn't want to travel all the hell around my section of the state seeing parts of three or four games a day and then writing long and tedious reports and I don't give a s*** if you believe that or not. Point is, I consider myself a fair judge of talent and IT IS MY OPINION that Lavarnway would be more than adequate as a catcher for us, as good as Salty if we don't sign him, and, what's more, he would be a threat to hit between 25-30 homers for us. As for this statistical analysis you keep harping on, it doesn't come from that at all. One of the sticking points of conflict between Lucchino and Epstein when he was with us was the difference each had over how ready a player was for the Red Sox, and let me remind you (again) was that in both Pedroia's and Ellsbury's cases it was Theo who said they were ready and Lucchino who said "more seasoning" and not any damn statistical analysis. And for the further record, I know two Red Sox scouts where I live very well and both corroborated what I've just told you (probably for the third or fourth time).

 

You seem very ready to criticize what others say as if you're some damn know it all and if you want to say the scouts know more than you do that's fine but don't tell that to me because I've done that kind of work. You might also know that it gets tedious hearing you pan iortiz, Dojii and Sox Sport like you're the dispenser of all worldy knowledge. You're not.

 

Me? I don't know anything. What i don't do is pretend i'm some kind of scout over the internet. I'll trust the people who do this for a living thank you very much.

 

Fred, it's the middle of November with the team fresh off a WS win and you're already whining like a 15-year old girl who didn't get tickets to a Justin Bieber concert. You should still be celebrating the WS win imo.

[User Name]

Back to baseball:

 

If the Sox lose out on all of the big ticket FA catchers and don't feel comfortable with their internal options, is Dioner Navarro worth looking at as an alternative to Ryan Hanigan?

[Dojji]

Back to baseball:

 

If the Sox lose out on all of the big ticket FA catchers and don't feel comfortable with their internal options, is Dioner Navarro worth looking at as an alternative to Ryan Hanigan?

 

Ehhh... if we didn't have a bunch of interesting B level prospects at catcher maybe, I don't see how one great half year from navarro makes him that much better an option from our own younguns

[User Name]

Again, the caveat is "if the Sox don't feel comfortable with their internal options".

[Dojji]

And if they don't, I'd be hard pressed to see why they'd be comfortable with Navarro.

[Palodios]

Navarro couldn't hurt. He isn't a top defender, but his glove is still good enough to offset the loss of Salty's bat. If he can help the Sox save money for other positions, he seems worth picking up.

[User Name]

So who would be your solution? @Dojji

[seabeachfred]

Me? I don't know anything. What i don't do is pretend i'm some kind of scout over the internet. I'll trust the people who do this for a living thank you very much.

 

Fred, it's the middle of November with the team fresh off a WS win and you're already whining like a 15-year old girl who didn't get tickets to a Justin Bieber concert. You should still be celebrating the WS win imo.

 

Whether you know anything or not is beside the point, but I don't have to pretend to be a scout. I'm not one; I have done scouting as I've reiterated to you many times. Besides I was GIVING MY OPINION of what I thought of the catching situation and in my opinion we don't need to go out and sign someone when we have in-house candidates like Lavarnway. I know you and others like mvp don't think all that much of him and that's fine, but I happen to and think he is worth a shot. Guys with that kind of power potential should be given a look, and, besides, I hear he has worked a little at first base as well. Who knows about whether he could work out there for us or not.

 

As for the World Series win I am still floating on air and finished my 2013 ensemble of players and news headlines in my room. I am totally and completely out of my head for what our team did despite what you may think. As for the upcoming flesh market I want to make sure we sign those players who fit in and can help us but by no means are signed to contracts that will block any of our young prospects---Bradley, Cecchini, Brentz, Swihart, Vasquez, or any of the young pitchers like Renaudo or Owens. Now back to baseball if you please.

[User Name]

Fred, this is a message board. When you give out opinions, they are bound to be challenged. Instead of going all nuclear, you could try continuing the argument without being a baby about it. If you took exception to anything i said, that's on you. This s*** ain't personal unless you make it personal. Behave like an older adult, which you are, and let's keep this to baseball. Enjoy the rest of your night.

[marklmw]

Another idea.

 

1. Bid $71 million for Mashairo Tanaka. Offer him a 6 year/$54 million deal.

 

2. Shop Felix Doubront around. Maybe a trade could be worked out with the Padres with Doubront, Middlebrooks and Workman in return for Chase Headley. Or maybe a trade could be worked out with the Cubs for Luis Valbuena and Pedro Strop.

 

3. Offer one of Britton, Brentz or Hassan for Ryan Hanigan. Alternatively, offer 1 year/$2 million deal to Dioner Navarro.

 

4. Offer Corey Hart 1 year/$8 million deal. Alternatively, offer Mike Napoli 2 year/$26 million deal. Alternatively, offer Jeff Baker a 2 year/$8 million deal and platoon him with Mike Carp.

 

5. If a deal for a third baseman was unable to be worked out, offer Juan Uribe a 2 year/$12 million deal. Alternatively, offer Jerry Hairston Jr. a 1 year/$3 million deal.

 

6. If there’s money left over (which there would be if Headley isn’t acquired or Hart is signed) offer a 1 year/$3 million minor league deal for Colby Lewis. I’d offer a similar deal to Grady Sizemore if there’s still money left over. Anyone who could provide some extra production or net a draft pick next year would be worth looking at. If Tanaka was signed and Doubront was traded, that would still leave us with 6 starters. If need be, one of them could be traded to free up more salary room. We don’t need to save any room for a Lester extension, because if we were to extend him we’d do it after the start of the season so he wouldn’t count against this year’s luxury tax hit.

 

I read somewhere that Tanaka might not be coming to MLB next year and that he might be forced to put 9 years in Japan before he will be allowed to become a FA. It appears that the present posting system is unfair the mid and low level MLB teams.

[seabeachfred]

I read somewhere that Tanaka might not be coming to MLB next year and that he might be forced to put 9 years in Japan before he will be allowed to become a FA. It appears that the present posting system is unfair the mid and low level MLB teams.

 

Mark, please tell me why the Red Sox would even be interested in getting in the bidding for this guy. I know he was 24-0 in the Japanese League but that league isn't the Major Leagues and his high pitch count makes me wonder if a red flag shouldn't be flying. Besides, hasn't the front office made it clear that they are not going to go through this bidding nonsense again, nor these humongous long term contracts? I would have thought the Crawford caper ended that for at least a few years. In fact, I really don't think the Red Sox have to do nearly as much as last year to get up to snuff for 2014. Sign Napoli, get Salty back if we can and perhaps a couple of relievers. The AL East will be wide open again but if we play our cards right we should be right in the heart of it. What say you?

[Dojji]

So who would be your solution? @Dojji

 

Lavarnway. He's no bigger a risk than anyone else we'd bring in on a budget, and I don't want a contract blocking the catcher's position if it can be avoided without hamstringing the team..

[marklmw]

Mark, please tell me why the Red Sox would even be interested in getting in the bidding for this guy. I know he was 24-0 in the Japanese League but that league isn't the Major Leagues and his high pitch count makes me wonder if a red flag shouldn't be flying. Besides, hasn't the front office made it clear that they are not going to go through this bidding nonsense again, nor these humongous long term contracts? I would have thought the Crawford caper ended that for at least a few years. In fact, I really don't think the Red Sox have to do nearly as much as last year to get up to snuff for 2014. Sign Napoli, get Salty back if we can and perhaps a couple of relievers. The AL East will be wide open again but if we play our cards right we should be right in the heart of it. What say you?

The Sox were reported to have interest in Tanaka and have scouted him. I love where the Sox are. It would be interesting to me to know if there are probability stats on players making it to the MLB level based on the round they were drafted in. I cannot be happier with the prospects we have in the pipeline and should we pick up 4-5 high picks in this years draft we will be restocking our farm at the same time. I think that Sox fans are extremely pleased with this years championship and that BC can do no wrong. Part of me hopes that Napoli, Drew, Salty and Ellsbury have good futures with 4 national league teams. Dempster can be joining them. I would not mind platoon situations in LF, IB and C. I also have a feeling that Vazquez is going to complete for a spot on 2014's roster. I also think that Brentz might surprise and can get an opportunity should Victorino spend anytime on the DL. Mind you these are just from my gut. I wanted badly to keep Ellsbury but others on this site had good arguments to change my mind. We really do not know how good some of our top prospects can be. Of course Bogaerts has superstar written all over himself and it would not surprise me in the least if he ends the season in the 3 slot ahead of Ortiz.

Edited November 18, 2013 by marklmw

[sk7326]

I read somewhere that Tanaka might not be coming to MLB next year and that he might be forced to put 9 years in Japan before he will be allowed to become a FA. It appears that the present posting system is unfair the mid and low level MLB teams.

 

Well the posting system (which actually resembles the soccer transfer system a bit) is in limbo - apparently NPB has been slow in responding. That said, the Japanese Players Union approved the hardest part, still letting one team (the posting winner) have exclusive negotiating rights. The snag is that some owners want the posting fee to be counted towards the luxury tax. I think things are OK on the Japanese end, though there is some grandstanding by Manfred.