2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

The Dodgers would most likely have to eat a little of that contract to trade him.

 

The more they eat, the more Kemp costs in prospects. With his talent level, they shouldn't give him up for any less than one of Bogaertz/Bradley/Owens, and two of Ranaudo/Barnes/Cecchini/Webster. The Red Sox are not going to be that desperate.

[mvp 78]

The more they eat, the more Kemp costs in prospects. With his talent level, they shouldn't give him up for any less than one of Bogaertz/Bradley/Owens, and two of Ranaudo/Barnes/Cecchini/Webster. The Red Sox are not going to be that desperate.

With that contract and his injury issues? Haha, no.

[jung]

Wouldn't Kemp be another big deal? I just don't see the Sox needing the likes of a Kemp or Beltran. Broken down vets are one thing...high priced broken down vets are really tough to swallow. Why do they need to gamble like that? I think the biggest deal they do will be bringing Naps back (hopefully back). Then if you want to consider Ruiz a big deal...well OK there is that. I would not consider Ruiz that big a deal. McCann is the big deal at Catcher.

[Palodios]

With that contract and his injury issues? Haha, no.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but players of his talent level always go for atleast 3 premium prospects. If the money is the problem, the Dodgers eat monetary cost, not talent cost.

[Palodios]

John Henry reiterated his general disdain for long-term contracts in free agency, which hamstrung the franchise in 2012 before the mega-trade with the Dodgers. He said those deals are OK in certain circumstances -- Dustin Pedroia comes to mind -- but by and large, even the richest franchises risk losing flexibility if they sign too many of them. "We had a long history of overpaying and going too long in contracts," Henry said. "We had the resources to be able to do it, just as the Yankees had the resources to be able to do that. You can make mistakes. You can sign someone to a five-year deal that should have been a four-year deal. You can pay him a few million extra a year in order to put together the exact team that can contend. We moved away from that for the first time I think in 2012. You saw that and you'll see that now continuing

 

Sounds like McCann and Ells aint happening.

[jung]

Wow that was some pretty detailed information from Henry. He Certainly did not beat around the bush.

[Palodios]

Wow that was some pretty detailed information from Henry. He Certainly did not beat around the bush.

 

I don't think he was pointing to anyone in particular. JD Drew's last year was bad, but one bad year isn't the end of the world. Lackey has actually improved through his five year deal. That being said, f*** Crawford.

[sk7326]

But he's making 21-21.5 million a year for 6 years. It would be like a big thank you to the Dodgers for The Trade.

 

Note the "kicking the tires". There is probably not a deal there - and given the red flags, not that I'd want one.

 

Here is the thing about Henry's view on long term deals etc. Everything he said was blindingly obvious - stuff everybody knows. However, the key thing is the "in certain cases" qualifier he offers. Pedroia is one of the top 20 position players in the league - so THAT is one of the qualifiers. Carl Crawford was an MVP candidate when they signed him - obviously that was a mistake, but they aimed high. The Red Sox did not make some sort of fundamental paradigm shift - there was just nobody worth that sort of monster investment so they went to plan B. The Sox have money, and they have prospect depth - including a lot of prospects who are attractive and probably blocked. There is the chance to be opportunistic if the right sort of guy is available. Kemp given his hamstring problems is probably not it ... that said, he represents the sort of talent level who is worth laying out a lot for.

[redsoxrules]

Red sox offering a 2 year deal to salty worth less than 10mil per year.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying it will happen, but players of his talent level always go for atleast 3 premium prospects. If the money is the problem, the Dodgers eat monetary cost, not talent cost.

 

I don't know...Kemp is a big talent, but with his recent injuries he looks like he might be a bad contract too.

[Bellhorn04]

I e-mailed Speier about this...he replied that a lot of people were asking about it so he wrote this today.

 

A note of clarification on John Lackey’s salary and the luxury tax threshold

11.13.13 at 12:45 pm ET

By Alex Speier | 5 Comments

 

In the aftermath of this look at the Red Sox’ current payroll commitments for 2014, there has been widespread curiosity on one front: Why is John Lackey listed as a $16.5 million salary for luxury tax purposes?

The right-hander is entering the final season of his five-year, $82.5 million contract. But because he missed all of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, a vesting team option at the major league minimum ($500,000 plus a cost of living adjustment from 2014 to 2015) for 2014 was triggered. So, with that option in place, does it alter the way that Lackey’s 2014 average annual value is calculated for luxury tax purposes?

Simple answer: No.

Even if the Sox exercised Lackey’s 2015 option today, it wouldn’t impact how his AAV is determined in any year of the contract prior to the option. He’d still represent a $16.5 million player for the purposes of 2014 payroll, and he’d still represent approximately a $500,000 player for the purposes of 2015 payroll.

The implications are twofold: First, Lackey represents, at least as of now, the most expensive player on the Sox’ roster in the coming year, and secondly, he represents a potentially game-changing member of the roster for 2015 if he remains healthy and effective while pitching at the major league minimum. If, for instance, the Sox wanted to sign Jon Lester to a long-term deal that would take effect starting in 2015 (something that the team is expected to explore this spring), the payroll flexibility afforded by Lackey could play a significant role in giving the Sox the flexibility to do so while staying well within the luxury tax threshold.

[sk7326]

I don't know...Kemp is a big talent, but with his recent injuries he looks like he might be a bad contract too.

 

Basically the Dodgers have Puig and 3 outfielders they are taking calls on ... it is really about which guy gets them the best deal. Crawford has rebuilt his value a little bit - not Tampa Bay level but at least a 3 win sort of guy you can play without holding your nose. Ethier needs a platoon partner but is probably the best contract. Kemp is the high wire act - could be a bonanza or a disaster.

[vjcsmoke]

When we first got him, he looked like an albatross. But after his performance in 2013, including the playoffs, Lackey looks like the gift that keeps on giving. This salary loophole is great. That means for 2015, he counts a measley 500k on the cap, and if we time Lester's extension to start in 2015... well that helps a ton for the red sox cap figure!

 

Even if the Sox exercised Lackey’s 2015 option today, it wouldn’t impact how his AAV is determined in any year of the contract prior to the option. He’d still represent a $16.5 million player for the purposes of 2014 payroll, and he’d still represent approximately a $500,000 player for the purposes of 2015 payroll.

The implications are twofold: First, Lackey represents, at least as of now, the most expensive player on the Sox’ roster in the coming year, and secondly, he represents a potentially game-changing member of the roster for 2015 if he remains healthy and effective while pitching at the major league minimum. If, for instance, the Sox wanted to sign Jon Lester to a long-term deal that would take effect starting in 2015 (something that the team is expected to explore this spring), the payroll flexibility afforded by Lackey could play a significant role in giving the Sox the flexibility to do so while staying well within the luxury tax threshold.

 

The question still remains of course, what do we do at catcher, do we resign ellsbury or do we give JBJ the job, and can we resign Napoli for a reasonable price?

 

PS If I were trying to acquire an OF from the Dodgers, I'd be targeting Yasil Puig, not Kemp.

Would it be possible to create a package centered on Nava and Middlebrooks for Puig??

 

PPS Speaking of Puig. The Red Sox have to be willing to take some risks and trust their international scouting if they are going to land an impact free agent. Because going head to head with the Yankees on a well known prospect - well you generally don't win bidding wars against the Yankees.

 

But look what Puig did his rookie year, age 22, .925 OPS. That is ridiculous.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml

 

But websites like baseballamerica were writing articles about how other teams were 'puzzled' that the dodgers gave him a 'lavish' 6 years/42m dollar deal. Looks like a bargain basement deal now for the talent they got in return.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613621.html

 

Anyways, in addition to retaining a few key free agents, the Red Sox are also going to have to continue to find undervalued gems, like the way they found Uehara if they want to continue their run for the playoffs next year.

Edited November 14, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[seabeachfred]

I don't think he was pointing to anyone in particular. JD Drew's last year was bad, but one bad year isn't the end of the world. Lackey has actually improved through his five year deal. That being said, f*** Crawford.

 

f*** Kemp too. How the hell do you think he hurt his ankle anyway? You know, the ankle that is still sore and has still not healed? He got by loafing on a ground ball while thinking that the opposing infielder would go to first instead of home which the infielder didn't. He went home and suddenly prima donna Kemp tried to turn on the after burner and slid awkwardly as he got tagged out....f*** him and double f*** the Dodgers.

[mvp 78]

Nava and WMB for Puig?

 

It's that time of year folks!

[Palodios]

Atleast they've been mostly tempered. I haven't heard one single "How about Dempster, Kalish and Alex Wilson for Mike Trout" yet.

[vjcsmoke]

Atleast they've been mostly tempered. I haven't heard one single "How about Dempster, Kalish and Alex Wilson for Mike Trout" yet.

 

Well Trout established himself as untouchable this year, proving that 2012 wasn't a fluke.

 

Puig on the other hand has had one good rookie year. But maybe the Dodgers try to sell high, but maybe it's a price we can afford since we have some pretty good prospects to offer. Not to mention we need to replace Ellsbury's production in the outfield somehow.

 

Another young guy we might look into acquiring would be Billy Hamilton of the Reds. He had 148 stolen bases in the minors and might turn into the leadoff guy of the future. I know we have JBJ already but he's not exactly a speedster.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamilbi02.shtml

Edited November 14, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[jung]

Is Puig actually on the block or something. I guess I am not sure why he is part of the discussion.

[vjcsmoke]

The dodgers have too many starting outfielders and although I doubt Puig is on the block, he is obviously the most attractive prize. They DO have a need at 3B so maybe a deal centered around WMB might work. Or it might get laughed off the phone. *shrug*

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hot-stove-rumors-troy-tulowitzki-matt-kemp-andre-ethier-carl-crawford-carlos-gonzalez-allen-craig-trevor-rosenthal-110713

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/sarahs-take-dodgers-should-not-deal-an-outfielder?ymd=20131113&content_id=63896584&vkey=news_mlb

[MNSoxChief102]

Is Puig actually on the block or something. I guess I am not sure why he is part of the discussion.

 

Was thinking the same thing. Don't see any scenario in which Puig is available. He pretty much single handedly turned their season around last year and has the ability to lock down one spot in their outfield for a very long time. Could he theoretically regress this year and become expendable? Sure... and monkeys could theoretically fly out of my ass... IMO he's untouchable and any speculation involving him right now (especially speculation that suggests WMB and Nava would be enough to get him!) is ridiculous.

[mvp 78]

Hanley Ramirez played a bigger role in turning last year around. Once he got hurt, they were bounced from the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Nava and WMB for Puig?

 

It's that time of year folks!

 

Get 'er done, Ben! Wake up...party's over!

[marklmw]

Is Puig actually on the block or something. I guess I am not sure why he is part of the discussion.

 

It was reported that the Dodgers will listen to offers on Eithier, Crawford and Kemp but not mention of Puig. Puig is an exciting player and puts fans in the seats. Puig isn't going anywhere.

[marklmw]

Hanley Ramirez played a bigger role in turning last year around. Once he got hurt, they were bounced from the playoffs.

True that!

[redsoxrules]

Puig is a headcase.

[sk7326]

Hanley Ramirez played a bigger role in turning last year around. Once he got hurt, they were bounced from the playoffs.

 

Ramirez AND Greinke getting healthy (Greinke gave them the NL's best 1-2 combo) at the same time Puig came up was a perfect confluence. I think of their 4 outfielders Puig is the only one not on the block - he has by far the best contract after all.

[sk7326]

Puig is a headcase.

 

Puig was a rookie whose prior experience was a world where players enjoy themselves. Will he slide into the "yessir, nosir" that MLB expects as the "right way to play?" It will improve - but you don't teach the pure ability to hit the baseball like he has.

[dupree]

Brian Wilson's agent told the Yankees that his client wont shave the beard so he wont be in pinstripes. I hope he is the bullpen piece we add. Could you imagine him running out of left field in Fenway. Prolly a 2yr deal would get it done.

[marklmw]

Brian Wilson's agent told the Yankees that his client wont shave the beard so he wont be in pinstripes. I hope he is the bullpen piece we add. Could you imagine him running out of left field in Fenway. Prolly a 2yr deal would get it done.

As long as he does not mind being in the set-up role ... after all Koji is the man!

[mvp 78]

Wilson was fantastic last season. A 2 year deal could be money well spent.