2014 Roster Projections

[marklmw]

Many of you have Napoli with a 3 year contract that is significantly more than the 3/39 that was agreed to 1 year ago. Granted his fielding was an unknown that turned out to be a plus but the guy is one year older on the downside of his career. Maybe the hip issue is not as big an issue as it was last year. I was not aware that this condition can correct itself. I like Napoli at the original 3/39 and that is still taking a risk. The fact that we have a 2013 WS Championship would this not be the best time to semi-rebuild for the future. I have no trouble keeping Napoli because 1B is a need but let's let Ellsbury, Drew, and Salty go. Nava and Gomes can share LF, Nava can spell Victorino, Carp can spell Napoli.

Lavarnway can share C with Ruiz / Ross. Sox can still deal Dempster to NL team. Koji is our closer. We will not ask Koji to pitch more than 1 inning in any regular season game.

[sk7326]

I doubt Napoli gets a clean 3 years from the market. Perhaps 1 year + option, MAYBE 2 + option. He was a 4-win player last year, and for a team in Boston's position (playoff contender, significant marginal revenue per win) that is a $16M-$17M sort of dude. I'd feel more comfortable having that be an incentive laden upside. What we can be assured is that he will not be signing for a $5M base salary. As far as Koji goes - he is the closer to start the season, and you use him basically the way Farrell did. Limit the work early, but you definitely want him to have a few 4+ out saves from a perspective of conditioning. Furthermore, best to be prepared for Koji to not be the answer next year. Certainly he won't be as good as he was this year, because that is basically impossible.

[Palodios]

Napoli supposedly already has a multi-year deal from Boston. 3 years is not out of the question by any means. He's only 32, and his hip hasn't gotten worse.

[marklmw]

Napoli supposedly already has a multi-year deal from Boston. 3 years is not out of the question by any means. He's only 32, and his hip hasn't gotten worse.

When the hip goes it goes ... think Bo Jackson who is arguably the greatest athlete ever.

[mvp 78]

1. It's not the same injury.

2. Bo played 170 games after the injury, 29 hr, 88 rbi.

[Bellhorn04]

I can see Napoli getting 2 clean years. 3 clean years would be pretty stupid on somebody's part.

[marklmw]

I can see Napoli getting 2 clean years. 3 clean years would be pretty stupid on somebody's part.

 

How about an incentive based 39 /3 with 19.5/3 guaranteed?

[User Name]

When the hip goes it goes ... think Bo Jackson who is arguably the greatest athlete ever.

 

It was also AVN, yes, but Brett Favre had the same issue since 1992, and look at how long he played with it without complications.

[Bellhorn04]

How about an incentive based 39 /3 with 19.5/3 guaranteed?

 

Sign me up.

[sk7326]

Napoli supposedly already has a multi-year deal from Boston. 3 years is not out of the question by any means. He's only 32, and his hip hasn't gotten worse.

 

A multi-year is fair if the downside protection is sufficient. They wanted it last year - so it stands to reason that they would want something again, though it might be as simple as the protection they had in LAckey's case.

[Bellhorn04]

Latest payroll projections from Alex Speier:

 

Guaranteed deals

David Ortiz 17.00

John Lackey 16.50

Jake Peavy 16.50

Dustin Pedroia 13.30

Ryan Dempster 13.25

Shane Victorino 13.00

Jon Lester 9.37

Clay Buchholz 7.75

Jonny Gomes 5.00

Koji Uehara 4.25

Craig Breslow 3.13

David Ross 3.10

TOTAL GUARANTEED 122.15

 

Arbitration eligible

Junichi Tazawa 2.00 Estimated

Andrew Miller 1.75 Estimated

Franklin Morales 1.75 Estimated

Mike Carp 1.20 Estimated

Team control

Felix Doubront 0.58 Estimated

Daniel Nava 0.57 Estimated

Will Middlebrooks 0.55 Estimated

Brandon Workman 0.50 Estimated

Xander Bogaerts 0.50 Estimated

 

Summary

Guaranteed deals 122.15

Arbitration eligible 7.00 Estimated

Team control 2.70 Estimated

Depth callups 4.00 Estimated

Trades 5.00 Estimated

40-man roster 1.20 Estimated

Dodger subsidy 3.90

Medical benefits etc.10.80 Estimated

Total 156.75

 

Notes: Bailey not included, projected as non-tender.

[seabeachfred]

Nava's versatility and low cost makes him very important to the Sox. Can play LF, RF and 1B and switch hits so I don't see the Sox moving him.

 

This is another thing I don't get---this stuff about sending Nava packing to some other team. Hell the guy wasn't chopped liver this past season. He hit 303 and hit for fair power, played decent defense and showed versatility. He is a late bloomer and a player who knows he can't let up for a minute. Those kind of overachievers are like pearls to a ball club like ours and for those reasons alone we should not so keen on trading him away.

[Palodios]

This is another thing I don't get---this stuff about sending Nava packing to some other team. Hell the guy wasn't chopped liver this past season. He hit 303 and hit for fair power, played decent defense and showed versatility. He is a late bloomer and a player who knows he can't let up for a minute. Those kind of overachievers are like pearls to a ball club like ours and for those reasons alone we should not so keen on trading him away.

 

For whatever reason, it just seems like the Red Sox organization has never been very high on him.

[Bellhorn04]

For whatever reason, it just seems like the Red Sox organization has never been very high on him.

 

He did play in 134 games this year.

[Palodios]

He did play in 134 games this year.

 

I don't think the Red Sox expected to have such an issue with RF. Would you believe Nava played 69 games in right? They must have figured Brentz, Kalish or Bradley could start a few games there, but they really had no depth at that position. Between that, and his openness to start at 1B, Nava had to fight for all the plate appearances he got.

[sk7326]

For whatever reason, it just seems like the Red Sox organization has never been very high on him.

 

I am not sure how fair that is. After all, he has been designated, cut etc. Every team has had a chance to get him and the Red Sox were the ones who saw enough to find him work.

 

Now the limitations with Nava are clear - he is really a platoon bat disguised as a switch hitter. He really shouldn't be playing against lefties, and his glove does not add any value. But he has always had a big league approach at the plate, and from the left side he is a very useful hitter in your lineup.

 

They were able to cobble together pretty good production out of the corners despite the lack of big names. Nava, like Salty and Victorino, would do his career a world of good by giving up the switch hitting thing. Even so, the Red Sox gave Nava a chance to show that he should be playing baseball for a living for somebody, which is pretty amazing given his story.

[jung]

As for Naps, I don't think playing 1st puts as much stress on that hip condition, surely not as much as he would have catching. So while I don't think a really long term deal is in the works, two years with a team option or maybe even three years would seem doable.

 

As for Nava, he should only see RF under extreme duress. He cannot play out there and is really only a RF when you don't have anybody else to play the position. So he is a platoon LF, back up 1st baseman...maybe but maybe not with Carp around. As I said earlier, I don't see in the Sox some major desire to move him. But he is very likely at the peak value of his entire career right now and I do see that as a possible motivation for the Sox to move him, depending on something coming back that fills a spot for them.

[Palodios]

One more thing to note about Napoli... who is to say he can't transition to DH in 2015 or 2016?

[marklmw]

One more thing to note about Napoli... who is to say he can't transition to DH in 2015 or 2016?

I guess that you did not hear the news. Papi signed a 7 year extension.

[Dojji]

I guess that you did not hear the news. Papi signed a 7 year extension.

 

I had to look that up just to make sure lol.

 

On a Wakefield style contract that would be potentially fantastic.

[jung]

Don't think you will ever see another pitcher sign a Tim Wakefield kinda' contract. That could be a road a Nava might go down. "Give me a million bucks every year and I will do the cookin', wash the laundry, play occasional LF and get you a knock now and again."

[redsoxrules]

One more thing to note about Napoli... who is to say he can't transition to DH in 2015 or 2016?

 

I'm fairly certain Ortiz won't retire after next year.

[Station 13]

I'm fairly certain Ortiz won't retire after next year.

 

Beside, why would Napoli gives up or willing to play DH wen he is good with the glove?

[marklmw]

Nava and Salty would be best served to hit from the left side most all the time ... especially so at Fenway where they can bang balls against the monster.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm fairly certain Ortiz won't retire after next year.

 

You really never know. I mean, he banged up his achilles when he was trotting around 2nd base on a HR.

 

He's getting old. But I will say this - when he does retire, it's going to be because of health, not talent.

[User Name]

Beltran Will Reject Qualifying Offer; Wants 3-4 Years

By Mark Polishuk [November 9 at 2:28am CST]

Carlos Beltran is looking for a three- or four-year contract and will thus turn down the Cardinals' one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer, Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown reports. Rejecting the qualifying offer will likely mean the end of Beltran's tenure in St. Louis as the Cards aren't likely to meet Beltran's demands when they have younger (and cheaper) outfield options like star prospect Oscar Taveras.

 

Beltran said during the summer that he hoped to play three or four more seasons, so it makes sense that he would look for a contract that would cover the home stretch of his career and capitalize on his strong performance in both the regular season and postseason. Though Beltran turns 37 next April, there is enough demand for his services that he could find more than two years. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles have already been linked to Beltran this offseason and Brown reports that six teams have "varying degrees of interest" in the veteran slugger. Brown figures the Mets, Phillies and Rangers are also possible suitors, plus any other teams who miss out on Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo.

 

As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted in his Free Agent Profile of Beltran, players of Beltran's age rarely score contracts of three years or more, and predicted that Beltran would sign a two-year, $30MM deal. Enough big-market teams are connected to Beltran that a larger deal could be possible, though the draft pick compensation attached to Beltran once he turns down the qualifying offer will also turn some clubs off.

 

No thanks.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No thanks.

 

Beltran wRC+ 132.

 

Nava wRC+ 128.

 

Given, we're paying for future performance, not past, but I like Nava's odds to stay within a negligible variance from Beltran in terms of offensive production.

[sk7326]

Beltran wRC+ 132.

 

Nava wRC+ 128.

 

Given, we're paying for future performance, not past, but I like Nava's odds to stay within a negligible variance from Beltran in terms of offensive production.

 

Beltran with a qualifying offer = no ...

[marklmw]

Beltran wRC+ 132.

 

Nava wRC+ 128.

 

Given, we're paying for future performance, not past, but I like Nava's odds to stay within a negligible variance from Beltran in terms of offensive production.

 

Nava has a better chance of outperforming Beltran over the next 3 years. Maybe the Sox are just driving up the price to the Spankmees ... signing Beltran makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for Boston. Boston needs to get younger not older.

[sk7326]

Nava has a better chance of outperforming Beltran over the next 3 years. Maybe the Sox are just driving up the price to the Spankmees ... signing Beltran makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for Boston. Boston needs to get younger not older.

 

Beltran for 3 years doesn't make sense for sure. Getting younger is easier to say than to do. Agility with contracts is the next best thing in a lot of cases. It's not like there is an influx of 25 year old outfielders in the organizations - that still needs a little work. (the Westmoreland thing hurts in this regard, though clearly thank god he has a chance to live a normal life, fingers crossed)