2014 Roster Projections

[MNSoxChief102]

Should the Sox attempt to sign any of the following QO players: Choo, Beltran, Ervin Santana, Cruz, Jimenez, McCann, Morales, Kuroda, Cano, Granderson?

 

I think Santana could be a decent signing, though he had a lot of ups and downs with LAA. Jimenez isn't a sure bet anymore. Not sure if I'd really want to use a 1st round pick on Beltran. Cruz is probably going to want too much $$$ and there are questions about how he'll perform without illicit substances. McCann is going to want way too much $$$ and I'd avoid.

 

I don't see us going after any of the above. Mostly due to monetary concerns, but most of the players listed have issues that would make me think twice before committing long term to them.

 

I suspect we'll see the Sox re-sign Drew and Napoli, with Salty and Ells leaving to snag rich FA deals. Unless I'm mistaken, we really don't have a ton of money to spend, and I just don't see Benny dumping the long term plan to try for a repeat next year. No reason to think we won't sign one or two bench/role players that can come in and be a good fit with this club, but I doubt we'll see any blockbuster signings this off-season.

 

Opening day defense should look something like this...

 

LF - Gomes/Nava

CF - JBJ

RF - Vic

1B - Nap

2B - Pedey

SS - Drew

3B - Bogaerts

C - Ross

SP - Lester

 

Lineup with that crew should be...

 

Vic

Pedey

Papi

Nap

Gomes/Nava

Bogaerts

Drew

Ross

JBJ

 

Can't say it will be a replica of this year's offensive juggernaut, but I think it shakes out well from top to bottom with good hitters throughout and decent speed at the top and bottom. Losing Ells from the leadoff spot will hurt this team in the short term but we'll find a way to make it work or we'll bring someone in that can help replace him. I for one would like to see what JBJ does next season after getting a taste this past year.

[Bellhorn04]

If that's what you took from the Epstein quote, then you have very very poor reading comprehension, which is not surprising.

 

And his writing clarity is every bit as bad as his reading clarity. I need an interpreter to explain what he was saying there. At first I thought he was saying Ben needed to keep the team together because of it's great chemistry...then he seems to be saying get rid of Ellsbury & Drew etc...it all gets a bit baffling.

[Thunder]

MN, youre not taking into account that Cherington will probably sign a few guys. I'm concerned that JBJ isn't ready to be the everyday CF, which is also why I think Ells should stay. I'm also not a huge fan of JBJ himself.

[sk7326]

I see Cherington in the Herald today was quoted as saying Epstein said after winning in 04 you had to change the chemistry because you never get it back anyways with the same guys. Or he said as much. Where did that get them? They didn't win again until 07. If Cherington thinks he should tear apart this team and rebuild it again to repeat, he is dreaming. You never know you have chemistry until you have it. You have to be LUCKY. It is hard to do a priori. Once you have it, hold onto it for dear life.

 

Now that doesn't mean retaining everybody, but it does mean identifying and retaining the key players who aren't replaceable. That should be his first task. I see Nap as the only guy right now that fills that description. Maybe Ells, but he will come grossly overpaid and they have a clone in JBJ ready to replace him. Same deal at SS. Bogaerts is liable to be better next year than Drew will ever be--assuming he keeps improving. You don't want to block that kid. And Middlebrooks could bounce back big after the common soph slump. You don't want to give up on these guys and block them with overpaid veterans on the decline. Drew is overrated in Boras money.

 

Already the clamor is to be bold (in the Herald), and trade the farm system, etc for Stanton. I think that would be a mistake. Stanton had a poor year, and you don't know what he's worth. Furthermore, they don't need him. What they may need is a CF replacement long term for Ells, and that should be JBJ. Vic is too old for that role--at least long term.

 

Stay put, Cherington, and give the younger players a chance.

 

I think you miss the Epstein quote's meaning here. Bill Parcells put it another way - that each season is its own thing, not a continuation of last year. Chemistry appears when demonstrated success appears. You bring in a bunch of high character guys who suck at baseball and then pile up a 3-17 start, chemistry ain't happening. You do want to change a team's energy each year and try to keep improving. That will rarely happen with zero turnover. What did Epstein's change mean? It meant a playoff berth in 2005, an honorable season in 2006 and then another title. In a sport as fluky as baseball, I don't see what the complaint is about the results.

 

Can you replace Napoli? Hell yeah you can. It might take a platoon formula like they did for LF, but of course you can cobble that together. The Red Sox 4 FAs are ALL replaceable, but there is some risk and/or tradeoff surrounding each one. I think the org is happy to give young players a spin here - but there is also a lot of money flowing and they will have a chance to improve. I think they could be in on Tanaka just because outside of Ellsbury and Cano there is no All Star talent in this year's free agent crop. I am sure there is commentary about loading up for Stanton, but yes - as a corner outfielder with an injury history of sorts - that is a risky guy to throw the system at.

[marklmw]

I don't see us going after any of the above. Mostly due to monetary concerns, but most of the players listed have issues that would make me think twice before committing long term to them.

 

I suspect we'll see the Sox re-sign Drew and Napoli, with Salty and Ells leaving to snag rich FA deals. Unless I'm mistaken, we really don't have a ton of money to spend, and I just don't see Benny dumping the long term plan to try for a repeat next year. No reason to think we won't sign one or two bench/role players that can come in and be a good fit with this club, but I doubt we'll see any blockbuster signings this off-season.

 

Opening day defense should look something like this...

 

LF - Gomes/Nava

CF - JBJ

RF - Vic

1B - Nap

2B - Pedey

SS - Drew

3B - Bogaerts

C - Ross

SP - Lester

 

Lineup with that crew should be...

 

Vic

Pedey

Papi

Nap

Gomes/Nava

Bogaerts

Drew

Ross

JBJ

 

Can't say it will be a replica of this year's offensive juggernaut, but I think it shakes out well from top to bottom with good hitters throughout and decent speed at the top and bottom. Losing Ells from the leadoff spot will hurt this team in the short term but we'll find a way to make it work or we'll bring someone in that can help replace him. I for one would like to see what JBJ does next season after getting a taste this past year.

 

This lineup will still produce plenty of offense. Grab Tanaka and deal Dempster and we are good to go.

[mvp 78]

I see Cherington in the Herald today was quoted as saying Epstein said after winning in 04 you had to change the chemistry because you never get it back anyways with the same guys. Or he said as much. Where did that get them? They didn't win again until 07.

 

It took them 3 whole years to win another WS!!! LOL! What a joke franchise!

[mvp 78]

And his writing clarity is every bit as bad as his reading clarity. I need an interpreter to explain what he was saying there. At first I thought he was saying Ben needed to keep the team together because of it's great chemistry...then he seems to be saying get rid of Ellsbury & Drew etc...it all gets a bit baffling.

 

Yeah, who has the cliff notes?

[marklmw]

MN, youre not taking into account that Cherington will probably sign a few guys. I'm concerned that JBJ isn't ready to be the everyday CF, which is also why I think Ells should stay. I'm also not a huge fan of JBJ himself.

 

2011 Numbers for Mike Trout go as: AB=123 Avg. = .220 OBP = .281

2013 Numbers for JBJ go as: AB = 95 Avg. = .189 OBP = .280

 

You really need to relax on JBJ. He is hit for decent average and OBP at AAA level. He will be fine. No need to pay Jacoby 20M per when JBJ can fill in at 500K.

[mvp 78]

MN, youre not taking into account that Cherington will probably sign a few guys. I'm concerned that JBJ isn't ready to be the everyday CF, which is also why I think Ells should stay. I'm also not a huge fan of JBJ himself.

 

So you'd sign Ells for 7/140+ because JBJ isn't an all star on 4/1/14. Is that what you're saying?

[sk7326]

Can JBJ be a .270/.340/.400 sort of hitter next season. I don't see why not. His track record has been very consistent there. I would not guess him hitting .370 OBP in Year 1, though he certainly has that sort of approach.

[marklmw]

Can JBJ be a .270/.340/.400 sort of hitter next season. I don't see why not. His track record has been very consistent there. I would not guess him hitting .370 OBP in Year 1, though he certainly has that sort of approach.

 

Of Course he can.

[redsoxrules]

Tanaka doesn't appeal to me, I don't know why so many people want to go after him.

[sk7326]

Tanaka doesn't appeal to me, I don't know why so many people want to go after him.

 

25 year old with potential. Throwing a $15m/year deal at him vs Ubaldo for instance ... lot of money chasing very few players

[Bellhorn04]

25 year old with potential. Throwing a $15m/year deal at him vs Ubaldo for instance ... lot of money chasing very few players

 

Plus the posting fee. So if the posting fee is $60 million and the contract is 6 years $90 million the total cost is 6 years $150 million.

[sk7326]

Plus the posting fee. So if the posting fee is $60 million and the contract is 6 years $90 million the total cost is 6 years $150 million.

 

We'll see what happens - but that sort of commitment for prime NPB guys is not atypical. And you get control of peak years.

[redsoxrules]

Lester will be free agent next year. I'd rather not blow the bank at Tanaka and make sure they keep Lester.

[Orange Juiced]

Can JBJ be a .270/.340/.400 sort of hitter next season. I don't see why not. His track record has been very consistent there. I would not guess him hitting .370 OBP in Year 1, though he certainly has that sort of approach.

 

His minor league stats from the last two seasons:

 

2012: .315/.430/.482/.911, 9 hr, 63 rbi

2013: .275/.374/.469/.842, 10 hr, 35 rbi

 

He has very good on-base skills and his power should continue to develop. He's a decent (not great) base-stealer, and he plays very good defense. Sure his first year might not be all-star caliber, but there will be plenty of worse CF in the majors in 2014, and the money can be used elsewhere.

[sk7326]

Lester will be free agent next year. I'd rather not blow the bank at Tanaka and make sure they keep Lester.

 

That is reasonable. Given the national TV money kicking in and such - it might not be a zero sum decision.

[mvp 78]

Plus the posting fee. So if the posting fee is $60 million and the contract is 6 years $90 million the total cost is 6 years $150 million.

 

I was told that ownership doesn't care about such things and has more money than they could possibly spend.

[sk7326]

I was told that ownership doesn't care about such things and has more money than they could possibly spend.

 

I am sure Sarah MacLachlan will be writing a song for them once such outlays are made.

[marklmw]

Lester will be free agent next year. I'd rather not blow the bank at Tanaka and make sure they keep Lester.

Tanaka will most likely sign for Yu Darvish kind of money which is around 10M per. Less than Dempster, Peavy for 2013. Lester will be 30 in January and 31 by 2015 season ... depending on his 2014 season there is no telling what he may go for. By 2015 Lester might not be in managements long term plans.

[marklmw]

I was told that ownership doesn't care about such things and has more money than they could possibly spend.

 

The numbers might be a bit high. probably closer to 120M 60M posting and 60/6 contract.

[mvp 78]

@Sean_McAdam: Red Sox won't disclose much re: Napoli's exit physical, but source w/ knowledge of it reports hip now looks better than it did last winter.

[marklmw]

@Sean_McAdam: Red Sox won't disclose much re: Napoli's exit physical, but source w/ knowledge of it reports hip now looks better than it did last winter.

 

Great news

[Orange Juiced]

Tanaka will most likely sign for Yu Darvish kind of money which is around 10M per. Less than Dempster, Peavy for 2013. Lester will be 30 in January and 31 by 2015 season ... depending on his 2014 season there is no telling what he may go for. By 2015 Lester might not be in managements long term plans.

 

Dempster, Peavy, and Lester are all slated to be free agents after the 2014 season. If Tanaka costs $10 million, that's no problem because both Dempster and Peavy will make more than $13 million in 2014. Lose them both and there's plenty of room for both Tanaka and a brand-new Lester contract.

[a700hitter]

I agree with SK. Any team with a hole at first base is going to be going over Napoli's scouting reports right now and looking up his agent's number. He produced at a very acceptable level and helped power this team to a World Championship. Someone's going to drop 3 years on him, and someone's going to drop 4 years on Drew.

I wouldn't give a 32 year old with a degenerative hip condition a 3 year contract. I'd let him walk before I gave him that length.

[Bellhorn04]

Dempster, Peavy, and Lester are all slated to be free agents after the 2014 season. If Tanaka costs $10 million, that's no problem because both Dempster and Peavy will make more than $13 million in 2014. Lose them both and there's plenty of room for both Tanaka and a brand-new Lester contract.

 

Tanaka won't cost $10 million. Even on the low side, if it's $60 million posting fee plus $60 million for 6 years the total cost is $120 million. That's an average cost of $20 million per year. The only break is that the posting fee isn't counted for luxury tax.

[marklmw]

Tanaka won't cost $10 million. Even on the low side, if it's $60 million posting fee plus $60 million for 6 years the total cost is $120 million. That's an average cost of $20 million per year. The only break is that the posting fee isn't counted for luxury tax.

If it is ownerships goal to keep below the luxury tax threshold than the actual contract is what we need to be concerned about. If the Sox were to land Tanaka I seriously doubt they will keep both Dempster and Peavy.

[redsoxrules]

Tanaka will cost more than Darvish

[sk7326]

I wouldn't give a 32 year old with a degenerative hip condition a 3 year contract. I'd let him walk before I gave him that length.

 

I doubt 3 years is in his future. But I could definitely see a 1-year + an achievable vesting option (say 500 PAs) ... with a higher base salary (maybe starting at $13M this year and incentives to get you towards another 50% or so)