2014 Roster Projections

[marklmw]

Drew accepts the QO, which gives the Red Sox about $28 million left to spend. Ellsbury is going to command $20 million at least. Signing him would leave only $8 million to fill catcher and first base.

Ellsbury is not coming back so we still have his 20M in the bank.

[Dojji]

Drew accepts the QO.

 

That would be a strange decision, considering Drew would be easily leaving at least 2 years, possibly more, of guaranteed contract time on the table by accepting the QO. Making a decision like that going into one's age 31 season would be very odd indeed.

 

Personally, looking at the situation from the perspective of the pre-Drew Sox, if you'd seen that guy on the market coming off a championship year in which he'd defended at a high level and hit well above league average, wouldn't you be calling for the Sox to shed a pick and go after the guy? He looks like he's proven he's back to his old self, and his old self would be worth a 5 year deal at decent money for his age 31-35 seasons.

 

Personally I think Drew's done a great job of putting the ankle injury behind him and setting himself up for a multiyear contract. I'd love to have him back but I'd be surprised if some team or another wasn't prepared to make him a very tempting offer, especially with a ring under his belt at this point.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

What on earth is this fascination with moving Middlebrooks to first base? Until he gets his consistency right Will Middlebrooks would be a very troubled first baseman.

 

The fascination is easy enough to explain.

 

1) Optimism says Middlebrooks will eventually stabilize at his 2012 level - .835 OPS, 15 HR and 54 RBI in less than half a season. First baseman production.

2) Economics says he's cheap and controlled.

[rjortiz]

That would be a strange decision, considering Drew would be easily leaving at least 2 years, possibly more, of guaranteed contract time on the table by accepting the QO. Making a decision like that going into one's age 31 season would be very odd indeed.

 

Personally, looking at the situation from the perspective of the pre-Drew Sox, if you'd seen that guy on the market coming off a championship year in which he'd defended at a high level and hit well above league average, wouldn't you be calling for the Sox to shed a pick and go after the guy? He looks like he's proven he's back to his old self, and his old self would be worth a 5 year deal at decent money for his age 31-35 seasons.

 

Personally I think Drew's done a great job of putting the ankle injury behind him and setting himself up for a multiyear contract. I'd love to have him back but I'd be surprised if some team or another wasn't prepared to make him a very tempting offer, especially with a ring under his belt at this point.

 

That Stephen Drew hasn't been around in four.years. He's an injury prone average SS with maybe three interested suitors.

[Dojji]

There is nothing average about the year Stephen Drew gave us this year, RJOrtiz, and if you believe there is, you are very much wrong and should know better. For his position, Drew gave us excellent production on both sides of the ball taking the year as a whole.

 

As for injury prone, he started the year with a concussion that held him out for most of the first month, and after that he missed only a handful of games the rest of the year, so you're wrong there too. Drew's number of games played (124) is in line with most of the rest of our starters, especially when you take the concussion into account. Only Dustin Pedroia started more than 140 games. All of our other starters were between 122 (Victorino) and 139 (Napoli). Drew's on the low end of that band, but he's right there.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

David Ross.

 

Vazquez and Swihart are the guys the Sox want behind the plate, and I think those are the guys that need another year.

 

I think that Ross / Lavarnway can be a short term solution until proven otherwise.

[sk7326]

It is not a great FA class ... Drew is a fringe Top 10 guy in the class. Replacement value for SS is VERY low these days. He will probably get multiple years from somebody - the only question is how much the injury discount is. A plus defensive SS who can hit enough is a 3-4 win player, which Drew was when he was healthy this past year.

[User Name]

What on earth is this fascination with moving Middlebrooks to first base? Until he gets his consistency right Will Middlebrooks would be a very troubled first baseman.

 

Besides, if there's a hole at first, you have to think that Mike Carp would get first crack at it, as a lefty power hitter he's the safer bet.

 

Now you know how we feel when you constantly post about KC players or one of your binkies making unreasonable projections/arguments.

[a700hitter]

Napoli is going to be tough to replace. Sure he struck out a lot, but he had the best UZR/150 among first basemen, and had some very clutch playoff hits. When he got hot, he carried the team. Everyone seems to think he will re-sign, and I sure hope he does.

With his hip condition, he is not a good candidate for a multi-year contract. He should be a fairly easy 1 year re-sign.

[User Name]

That Stephen Drew hasn't been around in four.years. He's an injury prone average SS with maybe three interested suitors.

 

A .777 OPS, .337 wOBA and 3.4 WAR with a 6.7 UZR/150 are hardly average for a SS.

[marklmw]

A .777 OPS, .337 wOBA and 3.4 WAR with a 6.7 UZR/150 are hardly average for a SS.

 

Good point ... that plus if you subtract out the concussion his WAR would project higher. Folks had no issue when Youk was playing 1B there is no reason why Middlebrooks could not do it as well. I think that Middlebrooks would be able to play 1B as well or better than Napoli. There are so many moving parts right now with 3 QO's floating ... things will become more clear come Monday.

[Dojji]

Youk was a better candidate to hit for consistency. It was the power that was in question for youkilis and once he answered that question he spent 2-3 years as the best hitter in the American League.

 

Consistency is crucial at first base offensively and there are legitimate questions about Middlebrooks' consistency. That's the difference between the idea of Youk at first base versus Middlebrooks. you knew that Youk would get on base and put up an OPS somewhere in the .800 range.

 

Quite frankly, Youk's exactly the kind of 3B that makes a good transition across the diamond exactly because he was offensively consistent, and he was a player who at third base was making the most of his somewhat limited toolset with a combination of skill, savvy and hard work. Put a guy like that in a position where his toolset plays up more, and he thrives.

 

On the other hand no one denies Middlebrooks has the toolset to thrive at third, offensive and defensive consistency is hisbugbear and that's not going to be helped by a move to first base.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

With his hip condition, he is not a good candidate for a multi-year contract. He should be a fairly easy 1 year re-sign.

 

You are severely underrating Napoli within the context of the Free Agent market of 2013. Think about it:

 

There is 1 legit superstar in this class - Robinson Cano

There is high probability all-star besides Cano in this class - Ellsbury

There are zero pitchers without major question marks - Tanaka is the one with the most upside due to age, but with zero major league track record.

Teams are going to convince themselves that Ubaldo Jimenez and/or Ervin Santana is worth a 4-year commitment - and given the alternatives, they probably are

 

The Red Sox 4 FAs are all among Keith Law's (only noting since that list was published today) Top 20 FAs. With Napoli and Drew among the top dozen. For a team with the resources and some measure of playoff contention, Napoli is a very attractive commodity. I don't think he'll get 3 years or anything like that, but he is due a pay raise from this year ... perhaps in the form of reasonable incentives ... and I wouldn't be surprised if he can find AT LEAST a vesting option in this cash rich environment.

[Dojji]

I agree with SK. Any team with a hole at first base is going to be going over Napoli's scouting reports right now and looking up his agent's number. He produced at a very acceptable level and helped power this team to a World Championship. Someone's going to drop 3 years on him, and someone's going to drop 4 years on Drew.

[marklmw]

Youk was a better candidate to hit for consistency. It was the power that was in question for youkilis and once he answered that question he spent 2-3 years as the best hitter in the American League.

 

Consistency is crucial at first base offensively and there are legitimate questions about Middlebrooks' consistency. That's the difference between the idea of Youk at first base versus Middlebrooks. you knew that Youk would get on base and put up an OPS somewhere in the .800 range.

 

Quite frankly, Youk's exactly the kind of 3B that makes a good transition across the diamond exactly because he was offensively consistent, and he was a player who at third base was making the most of his somewhat limited toolset with a combination of skill, savvy and hard work. Put a guy like that in a position where his toolset plays up more, and he thrives.

 

On the other hand no one denies Middlebrooks has the toolset to thrive at third, offensive and defensive consistency is hisbugbear and that's not going to be helped by a move to first base.

Middlebrooks could not have had a worse 2013 campaign. If you think that Napoli struck out a lot Middlebrooks had 98K with only 20BB ... he was striking out 5 x's for every BB ... Napoli was much better with 187K and 73BB ... he was striking out a mere 2.5 x's for every BB. Napoli's OBP was .360 which is respectable ... WMB was .271 which is unacceptable.

[Dojji]

For the record, I really miss Youk. If I thought for a minute that bringing him back to play first base would bring the old numbers back, I'd be all for a 1 year flier.

[sk7326]

I agree with SK. Any team with a hole at first base is going to be going over Napoli's scouting reports right now and looking up his agent's number. He produced at a very acceptable level and helped power this team to a World Championship. Someone's going to drop 3 years on him, and someone's going to drop 4 years on Drew.

 

I don't know if he will get 3 years, but I could see a year with a perfectly achievable vesting option (like say linked to 500 plate appearances or something)

[User Name]

I agree with SK. Any team with a hole at first base is going to be going over Napoli's scouting reports right now and looking up his agent's number. He produced at a very acceptable level and helped power this team to a World Championship. Someone's going to drop 3 years on him, and someone's going to drop 4 years on Drew.

 

Drew did good this year, but you're severely overrating his long-term potential. Three years would be the sweet-spot for him. It's unlikely someone drops four years on him, much less five as you suggested earlier.

[sk7326]

Drew did good this year, but you're severely overrating his long-term potential. Three years would be the sweet-spot for him. It's unlikely someone drops four years on him, much less five as you suggested earlier.

 

Drew is one of those interesting test cases for just how much money is flowing through the industry - same with Salty. Both of these guys would be 2-year + option sort of guys in a less prosperous environment. But with all of the TV money coming in, and all of the handcuffs being put on teams in terms of international signings and development - there are going to be a good number of "He signed for WHAT??!!" offers coming.

[Thunder]

Ellsbury would have to be very stupid to accept a QO. He'd be leaving at least $86 million on the table.

 

Again, I don't expect him accept the QO.

[User Name]

Why does everyone assume he'll reject it? I can understand it if he wants more, but you're acting like it's a gimme that he'll shoot it down.

 

If so, then what exactly were you implying in this post?

[marklmw]

Drew did good this year, but you're severely overrating his long-term potential. Three years would be the sweet-spot for him. It's unlikely someone drops four years on him, much less five as you suggested earlier.

 

I would enjoy having Drew for 33/3. If he is still playing well in the 3rd year perhaps extend him another 1 or 2 at that time.

[jung]

There has yet to be a MLB FA formula devised that spreads the money deeper into the player pool although the PA would love for that to happen. So far during periods when CBA changes or other changes have created more opportunity to flow moneys to players, the top tier FA's have been the guys that have in the main soaked up the lions share of the additional money and the expectations are that this is what is going to happen this time as well. We might see fewer of the top tier players moving because their current team has the money to offer them an extension and hold onto them but still in all it appears that the top tier players as a group will be the guys most advantaged by the additional money. I also do not think that there will be a big swing in contract term toward more longer contracts. I think a guy that was a 2+option year or maybe 3 year contract guy before is still going to end up offered deals like that now but at a higher annual salary. It is becoming common knowledge if not a downright trend that teams want to hold onto their very best players and want to take away some other team's best players but value flexibility deeper into the roster.

 

The interest dividing line for a Drew might be right at the dif between 2+ a team option vs a 3 year deal. Although just like the other players offered QO's Drew must decide to accept or reject by Wednesday. Unlike the situation with Salty, if Drew decides to accept I am inclined to think he would believe that he is one good batting season away from hitting the real jackpot....real long green for a SS and 3 years anyway....maybe 3 + a team option for s 4th.

 

You have to think that in not offering Salty a QO, the Sox do not believe the bidding is going to get too crazy on Salty or as they have with other players, they would have been willing to risk the money's offered through a QO against the ability grab the pick if another team would take him. I think the Sox are quite willing to pay Drew were he to pick up the QO but wanted no part of paying Salty should they have offered and Salty accepted.

 

I think pitchers might see more money go deeper into the staff. That might be the place where more money gets down past the big FA pitchers that are available.

 

Of course the players involved in QO's don't have much time. They have to tell the teams if they are going to accept a QO offered by Wednesday.

[mvp 78]

Should the Sox attempt to sign any of the following QO players: Choo, Beltran, Ervin Santana, Cruz, Jimenez, McCann, Morales, Kuroda, Cano, Granderson?

 

I think Santana could be a decent signing, though he had a lot of ups and downs with LAA. Jimenez isn't a sure bet anymore. Not sure if I'd really want to use a 1st round pick on Beltran. Cruz is probably going to want too much $$$ and there are questions about how he'll perform without illicit substances. McCann is going to want way too much $$$ and I'd avoid.

[marklmw]

There has yet to be a MLB FA formula devised that spreads the money deeper into the player pool although the PA would love for that to happen. So far during periods when CBA changes or other changes have created more opportunity to flow moneys to players, the top tier FA's have been the guys that have in the main soaked up the lions share of the additional money and the expectations are that this is what is going to happen this time as well. We might see fewer of the top tier players moving because their current team has the money to offer them an extension and hold onto them but still in all it appears that the top tier players as a group will be the guys most advantaged by the additional money. I also do not think that there will be a big swing in contract term toward more longer contracts. I think a guy that was a 2+option year or maybe 3 year contract guy before is still going to end up offered deals like that now but at a higher annual salary. It is becoming common knowledge if not a downright trend that teams want to hold onto their very best players and want to take away some other team's best players but value flexibility deeper into the roster.

 

The interest dividing line for a Drew might be right at the dif between 2+ a team option vs a 3 year deal. Although just like the other players offered QO's Drew must decide to accept or reject by Wednesday. Unlike the situation with Salty, if Drew decides to accept I am inclined to think he would believe that he is one good batting season away from hitting the real jackpot....real long green for a SS and 3 years anyway....maybe 3 + a team option for s 4th.

 

You have to think that in not offering Salty a QO, the Sox do not believe the bidding is going to get too crazy on Salty or as they have with other players, they would have been willing to risk the money's offered through a QO against the ability grab the pick if another team would take him. I think the Sox are quite willing to pay Drew were he to pick up the QO but wanted no part of paying Salty should they have offered and Salty accepted.

 

I think pitchers might see more money go deeper into the staff. That might be the place where more money gets down past the big FA pitchers that are available.

 

Of course the players involved in QO's don't have much time. They have to tell the teams if they are going to accept a QO offered by Wednesday.

 

I thought that the players had until Nov. 11th. I think that if Drew and Napoli accept the QO's it will be all that management could ask for. Obviously it will not make WMB all that happy but such is life. Fans had high hopes for WMB and as said many times here they may have over-projected his abilities. Let's home that he has a great year which will give us flexibility when dealing with Drew and Nap's after 2014.

[mvp 78]

"The deadline for teams to submit qualifying offers was 5 p.m. ET on Monday. The $14.1 million salary was determined by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the 2013 season -- the amount is the same regardless of the free agent. Each player has one week -- until 5 p.m. ET on Nov. 11 -- to accept the offer. If he accepts, the one-year deal is complete. If he rejects it, the team making the offer will receive a compensatory Draft pick between the first and second round (assuming the player signs elsewhere). All compensatory picks will be made between the first and second rounds, in reverse order of winning percentage."

 

I had seen it written as Wednesday elsewhere, but this is from mlb.com.

[marklmw]

Should the Sox attempt to sign any of the following QO players: Choo, Beltran, Ervin Santana, Cruz, Jimenez, McCann, Morales, Kuroda, Cano, Granderson?

 

I think Santana could be a decent signing, though he had a lot of ups and downs with LAA. Jimenez isn't a sure bet anymore. Not sure if I'd really want to use a 1st round pick on Beltran. Cruz is probably going to want too much $$$ and there are questions about how he'll perform without illicit substances. McCann is going to want way too much $$$ and I'd avoid.

 

I'm not buying any of these players. If I did it would be Beltran for 2 years. no ... I don't want him either.

[marklmw]

"The deadline for teams to submit qualifying offers was 5 p.m. ET on Monday. The $14.1 million salary was determined by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the 2013 season -- the amount is the same regardless of the free agent. Each player has one week -- until 5 p.m. ET on Nov. 11 -- to accept the offer. If he accepts, the one-year deal is complete. If he rejects it, the team making the offer will receive a compensatory Draft pick between the first and second round (assuming the player signs elsewhere). All compensatory picks will be made between the first and second rounds, in reverse order of winning percentage."

 

I had seen it written as Wednesday elsewhere, but this is from mlb.com.

 

Thanks MVP ... I thought I read the 11th somewhere.

[SoxSport]

I see Cherington in the Herald today was quoted as saying Epstein said after winning in 04 you had to change the chemistry because you never get it back anyways with the same guys. Or he said as much. Where did that get them? They didn't win again until 07. If Cherington thinks he should tear apart this team and rebuild it again to repeat, he is dreaming. You never know you have chemistry until you have it. You have to be LUCKY. It is hard to do a priori. Once you have it, hold onto it for dear life.

 

Now that doesn't mean retaining everybody, but it does mean identifying and retaining the key players who aren't replaceable. That should be his first task. I see Nap as the only guy right now that fills that description. Maybe Ells, but he will come grossly overpaid and they have a clone in JBJ ready to replace him. Same deal at SS. Bogaerts is liable to be better next year than Drew will ever be--assuming he keeps improving. You don't want to block that kid. And Middlebrooks could bounce back big after the common soph slump. You don't want to give up on these guys and block them with overpaid veterans on the decline. Drew is overrated in Boras money.

 

Already the clamor is to be bold (in the Herald), and trade the farm system, etc for Stanton. I think that would be a mistake. Stanton had a poor year, and you don't know what he's worth. Furthermore, they don't need him. What they may need is a CF replacement long term for Ells, and that should be JBJ. Vic is too old for that role--at least long term.

 

Stay put, Cherington, and give the younger players a chance.

[User Name]

If that's what you took from the Epstein quote, then you have very very poor reading comprehension, which is not surprising.