2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

Dojji, no one hates Ellsbury, stop fabricating silly ideas. People don't want the Sox to overpay for him, which is an entirely different deal. Pretty much everyone on this board has mentioned that they would gladly take JE back if he were to sign for market price, instead of the Boras premium. Stop making s*** up.

 

As for Buchholz, he is indeed very frail, but your eternal vendetta against him (and pretty much any other homegrown player with actual talent except your binkies, for reasons impossible to comprehend) is very misguided. Part of the health issues he's had the last two years have very much to do with the medical staff's complete and utter incompetence. That said, he does have a lot to prove.

[marklmw]

I've heard KC will look to trade Billy Butler. Would you rather sign Nap again or work out a trade for Butler? Of course I realize it depends on what KC would ask for...... but if it was a smart trade, I think I'd rather have Butler at first base.

I would like Butler for sure. of course it all depends on what the Sox need to give up to get him. I rather doubt that Sox will win a draft pick by offering Naps a QO but if they did and then sign Butler it would be a big win.

[yankthis]

Ellsbury will still be here on opening day.

[User Name]

It'd be awesome if he was, but it looks like Seattle is ready and willing to break the bank for him.

[jung]

Buch may need somebody with some real skills dealing with his kinds of issues to help him out. He tried to add pounds one year I guess in an effort to build himself up a bit and the added weight was more than his bone structure could support. At least that is all I could glen from the published reporting. So that backfired on him. Whatever he tries next..it has to be with the assistance of somebody that really knows what he is doing. He is just too much of a talent to just end up a bundle of unfulfilled promises. He did a terrific job battling through those four innings in Game 5. I hope he has taken a lot of encouragement from that.

[marklmw]

Buch is an awesome pitcher ... he knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off balance. Do not give up on the lad.

[Thunder]

Ells is definitely worth it, and so is Nap. One reason I say that is because they are the only two player shirts I have right now.

Anyway, I do think Drew gets the boot eventually. Not necessarily next season, but maybe 2015. Xander needs to prove himself over the course of a long season before I'd be willing to make him the next SS or 3B. As for OF, I hope they all return. I really do. I love Gomes, can't imagine the team without Nava or Ells, and Vic is just too valuable and dangerous. Same with Nap. Yes he K's a lot, but it's worth having him around.

[BornToRun]

I think, and hope, that Salty and Napoli will be back in 2014.

 

I think we bring Napoli back on a deal that will end up being close to what the original offer was. I'd say 2/28, maybe an option for another year.

 

Salty, I'd honestly have no problem giving 3/4 years. The money, I'm not sure. But he's just had a breakout year at an age when catchers start coming into their own, the pitchers love him and he's a team leader, and we don't have an immediate replacement ready to go.

 

I make the QO to Ells and Drew but I don't expect either to be back. I'd go 5/100 on Jacoby at the most and I doubt that gets it done.

 

If the FO doubts that WMB can stick, I'd be open to locking up Drew on a multi year deal and shifting X to third. Will did look improved during his call up later in the year after we sent him back to AAA.

 

And I'm not against shopping a couple of the back of the rotation arms. see what you can get in terms of talent/salary relief for Peavy and Dempster then go from there.

[diego]

Buch is an awesome pitcher ... he knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off balance. Do not give up on the lad.

 

Agree. Even more, if we waited for Lackey and it worked, why don't doing the same with Buccholz?

[Thunder]

I would deal Lavarnway. Once Ross is done, we have Butler ready to go. There's also no way we can have Xander, WMB, and Cecchini coexist on the left side. Seeing Will as the bench player there in the coming years, assuming XB and Cecchini play as we expect them to. I don't want to see a trade for Will, but there may not be room for him.

[marklmw]

Sign Tanaka to improve the team. We talk a lot about positional players but hardly discuss our most pressing need which is upgrading our starting rotation regardless of who is signed for next season. Of course the Sox need to build a club for the long drawn-out regular season but then what ... you also need to have a club that can compete in the post season. It is no coincidence that Detroit and St. Louis went deep into the playoffs with very good SP. Buchholz gave an honest effort in the play-offs ... Lester A+ and Lackey B+ gave great performances ... Hoji and others in the bullpen were superb. What if Buchholz did not return this season? Boston was over matched by the SP's of the other teams. If it were not for career best performances by Lester and Lackey along with some timely hitting we would not have won the WS. We did I know but take away the Ortiz Slam and maybe we are out of it. Face it our players were getting humongous hits after having no success in the 10 to 15 previous AB's. Sign Tanaka!

[jacksonianmarch]

A couple things. Boras wanted $130 mil over 7 yrs after 2011. He subsequently wa rebuffed and looked like a moron after 2012. But in 2013, he produced to a 5.8 WAR and that amount Boras wanted might be a starting point now. Like it or not, Ells has been the catalyst for 2 titles in Boston and showed he was healthy in 2013. He's gonna get big money as the second most attractive offensive option on the marke after Cano. I think the sox would be wise to pass on him. JBJ has the tools to be good and he's ready. No time like the present. If he flops, you have another plus defensive CFer in RF.

 

Napoli isn't going to ask for a discounted rate from Boston. He got $13 mil a yr then got reduced to 1 yr and stayed healthy. He posted a 3.9 WAR and stayed very healthy all season. He's gonna get paid. I expect the sox to retain him, though, but it might be on the order of a 3 yr $40-45 mil deal.

 

Salty was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, but he benefitted from the great lineup around him. He's a minus defender who couldn't be trusted in the end. You have Lavarnway, Ross, and a few coming down the pipe (Swihart to name one) who make Salty expendable. He's going to be someone's pricy mistake, don't make it Boston's. I have a feeling the sox lose Ells, Drew and Salty. The retain Napoli. And in the shocker of the offseason, they deal Lester for a Shields-esque haul

[jacksonianmarch]

And I will be blown away if the Yankees don't get Tanaka. He might have an $80 mil posting bid, and since it doesn't count towards the lux tax and saves them on paying some revenue sharing, I doubt they don't pay the piper. I bet DiceK ruined the possibility of the sox going balls out on another posted Japanese player

[marklmw]

A couple things. Boras wanted $130 mil over 7 yrs after 2011. He subsequently wa rebuffed and looked like a moron after 2012. But in 2013, he produced to a 5.8 WAR and that amount Boras wanted might be a starting point now. Like it or not, Ells has been the catalyst for 2 titles in Boston and showed he was healthy in 2013. He's gonna get big money as the second most attractive offensive option on the marke after Cano. I think the sox would be wise to pass on him. JBJ has the tools to be good and he's ready. No time like the present. If he flops, you have another plus defensive CFer in RF.

 

 

Napoli isn't going to ask for a discounted rate from Boston. He got $13 mil a yr then got reduced to 1 yr and stayed healthy. He posted a 3.9 WAR and stayed very healthy all season. He's gonna get paid. I expect the sox to retain him, though, but it might be on the order of a 3 yr $40-45 mil deal.

 

Salty was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, but he benefitted from the great lineup around him. He's a minus defender who couldn't be trusted in the end. You have Lavarnway, Ross, and a few coming down the pipe (Swihart to name one) who make Salty expendable. He's going to be someone's pricy mistake, don't make it Boston's. I have a feeling the sox lose Ells, Drew and Salty. The retain Napoli. And in the shocker of the offseason, they deal Lester for a Shields-esque haul

 

I agree with you about Ellsbury, Salty but not Napoli. Tell me what has changed with Napoli's health now that the season is over. Oh, I forget .... it got worse with the foot issue. Napoli gave the Sox pretty much what they expected ... maybe not as many K's but all in all he delivered what his career stats says he delivers. Napoli is not going to get $45M / 3 guaranteed money from Boston. Another poster suggested Butler from KC as an option to Napoli. I could be all wet on this and often I am but I am not seeing this logic.

[sk7326]

Tanaka could be a tough bid - there is some cross racial comparison obviously with Darvish ... and the posting fee could be nuts. But by many scouting accounts, he is more Kuroda than Darvish. Kuroda is a damn good pitcher, but Yu Darvish is another level ... and I would not want to post $50M for Hiroki Kuroda. Matsuzaka has #1 caliber stuff, but his approach was generally awful ... but the bid made sense.

 

Salty is a good offensive catcher, and has worked to improve to average level behind the plate. Blocking is pretty good, throwing not so much. His big weakness is that he punts away 1/3 of his at-bats by pretending he is a right handed hitter. He fixed that and he could be very good. As is, he managed to be a 3-win player which is a lot better than I expected. McCann (for one) has a longer track record, but an older body and contract demands that might force you to picture him as a DH in 2-3 years - frankly the FA investment between him and Salty is not at all a slam dunk. Lavarnway has a history of a DH/1B who is trying to catch for positional value - Mike Napoli of old basically. I think there is a very strong chance he just can't hack it as a full time catcher, and he has (in his tours, usual sample caveats apply) shown evidence that the job might be too big for him. (catching and hitting at the same time)

[jung]

Buch is an awesome pitcher ... he knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off balance. Do not give up on the lad.

 

Well I believe the Sox should do everything in their power to help Buch find a way to pitch complete seasons. That does not mean turning their in house butcher shop, I mean medical staff on him. They should try to help him find somebody that specializes in his kinds of issues and see if they can get him some help. He is under contract for a few years.

 

Since he is under contract I guess your question has something to do with trading him vs having waited for Lackey. The Sox had written protection into the Lackey contract. So waiting for Lackey was not even a decision. Getting Lackey back on the mound was the best way to get their return out of the language they had written into the contract. In addition, Lackey did not have chronic problems. Wore out his arm...had TJ....rehabed....end of story. Really pretty straightforward. This frailty issue has been around long enough for Buch to be chronic I think. He is frail. Hopefully he and his team supporting him and the Sox will find a way to get him past it.

[jung]

I almost forgot about this. They interviewed Pedro about Buch because Pedro threw so hard while being relatively small and eventually hurt his shoulder big time.

 

Pedro said that he had to work incredibly hard to maintain his smallish body such that he could throw. For example he worked two to three hours a day just on his shoulder....just on his shoulder!! Pedro went on to say that he just does not know if the contemporary player is committed enough to the game to work as hard as he worked to stay on the field but he also said that he felt like Buch would make the effort. It sounded like Pedro just did not know if Buch at this point realizes yet how much work it will take.

[jacksonianmarch]

The reason for Napoli getting a 1 yr deal instead of the agreed upon 3 yr deal was the hip issue. He showed no ill effects from it. Therefore, he boosted his stock. He also posted his second best WAR of his career at 3.9. Aside from his ridiculous outlier yr in 2011 when he hit over .300, he's shown rather remarkable consistency. He's a .250/.360/.470 guy who can play an average 1b. The OBP will lead him to get 3 yr offers elsewhere. My guess is the sox re-sign him to a touch north of the original agreement.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Buchholz finished 2013 healthy and did what Lester did in the playoffs, I'd say he was a prime candidate for a trade. But he finished the playoffs topping out at 89mph and not being able to go past 4 innings in a World Series game. His stock, even though he pitched brilliantly when on the field, couldn't be lower. I highly doubt the sox deal Buchholz

[marklmw]

The reason for Napoli getting a 1 yr deal instead of the agreed upon 3 yr deal was the hip issue. He showed no ill effects from it. Therefore, he boosted his stock. He also posted his second best WAR of his career at 3.9. Aside from his ridiculous outlier yr in 2011 when he hit over .300, he's shown rather remarkable consistency. He's a .250/.360/.470 guy who can play an average 1b. The OBP will lead him to get 3 yr offers elsewhere. My guess is the sox re-sign him to a touch north of the original agreement.

Bet you a steak dinner that that is not going to happen. The Sox are not going to give him 3 year guaranteed money.

[Bellhorn04]

And I'm not against shopping a couple of the back of the rotation arms. see what you can get in terms of talent/salary relief for Peavy and Dempster then go from there.

 

I agree on Dempster but not Peavy. Trading both of them is too much of an instant reduction in rotation depth. Peavy should be at least a solid #3, we've only got him for one year and it's not an outlandish amount. Plus he should be motivated in his walk year.

[BornToRun]

I agree on Dempster but not Peavy. Trading both of them is too much of an instant reduction in rotation depth. Peavy should be at least a solid #3, we've only got him for one year and it's not an outlandish amount. Plus he should be motivated in his walk year.

Well I wouldn't deal both but I'd at least check what the market was like. I'd rather hold into Peavy too but I'm not against seeing what interest is like.

[seabeachfred]

Wow, we just won the World Series and already everyone is thinking about next year. Me? I'd like to digest and enjoy what we did this season for a few days anyway. I went out to lunch today wearing my official Red Sox uniform top they used to give out on Red Sox Destinations. Pardon a little conceit but I felt pretty damn important being a Red Sox fan and watching Dodger and Angel fans eating their hearts out as I paraded around town. No, I didn't pop off at anyone; as I said I'm trying to turn over a new leaf and maybe even become a semi Pollyanna. This team really has changed my thinking and charged me up.

 

As for next season all I can say is that in my opinion Ellsbury is gone. He is not going to give us a hometown discount and we are not going six years, $130 million dollars for him----and some team out there will. I do not want to lose Middlebrooks and Lavarnway however. I think both of them can fit in and become stalwarts for us if they have given a full chance to show what they can do. Napoli I want back very badly; Salty is most likely gone as is Drew---and for pete's sake get Morales and Bailey out of town on the first rail available. See what you made me do; I didn't want to start talking about 2014 and then went and did it.

[Bellhorn04]

I've been looking at the 2014 payroll projections and I'm 110% convinced that Ellsbury is long, long gone.

 

I'll put the projections up soon.

[seabeachfred]

Anyways...

 

QO and walk:

 

Salty

Drew

Ellsbury

 

I'd love to keep some or all of these players but I can see the argument about not gumming down our financial flexibility, especially after not doing so helped us win big this year.

 

 

I'd keep Drew and Ellsbury if possible, but there's sense to letting both of them move on.

 

Resigning:

 

Mike Napoli (3 years, $45M) -- Napoli's type of hitter tends to age fairly well, and his hip wasn't an issue this year. I think he's earned the stability of a proper contract.

 

Signings:

 

Covelli "Coco" Crisp -- proficient hitting from the right hand side, capable of bringing some of Ellsbury's lost speed back, demonstrated as willing to split time both here and on the A's.

 

Willie Bloomquist -- not the flashiest utility guy, but brings some speed off the bench and a crapload of versatility.

 

Kelly Shoppach -- basically a Ross redux, except younger and not coming off a World Series win -- less emotion associated with him ensures he'll be played in his role rather than overexposed.

 

Trades:

Bundle Daniel Nava and Dempster somewhere for a decent return in talent. Otherwise, I don't see a ton of wheeling and dealing to do.

 

Roster:

 

C: Ryan Lavarnway

1B: Mike Napoli

2B: Dustin Pedroia

SS: Xander Bogaerts

3B: Will Middlebrooks*

LF: Johnny Gomes/Mike Carp

CF: JBJ/Coco Crisp

RF: Victorino

DH: Ortiz

 

Bench:

 

Coco Crisp/JBJ, OF

Mike Carp, LF/1B

Willie Bloomquist, UT

David Ross, C

 

*I'm kind of hoping Cecchini comes through to give us some options here at some point, but at this point we're committed to Middlebrooks as the starting third sacker.

 

Rotation:

 

Jon Lester

John Lackey

Jake Peavey

Felix Doubront

Clay Buchholz

 

No that's not a mistype. I do not trust Buchholz and never have. I would be looking for a proficient 6th starter type and hoping a bunch of young kids step up, because for all the hate on Ellsbury, the guy i least trust to take his start on time is Buchholz.

 

Bullpen:

 

Uehara

Tazawa

Miller

Breslow

 

Any of about 7 guys could fill out the last 3 spots.

 

Dojji, this time you might have gone over the cliff. Crisp? We went that way years ago with offensively totally disastrous results. He cannot play in Boston. As for Shoppach, he was a pain in the ass last season in that 2012 debacle. We do not need or want to have a second go-round with players who didn't perform for us the last time they were here. Crisp could field with the best of them but he didn't hit....hardly at all. Shoppach did nothing. Well we all can fall down once in awhile and after your call on Nava you can get all the "get out of jail" cards you want.

[marklmw]

If Buchholz finished 2013 healthy and did what Lester did in the playoffs, I'd say he was a prime candidate for a trade. But he finished the playoffs topping out at 89mph and not being able to go past 4 innings in a World Series game. His stock, even though he pitched brilliantly when on the field, couldn't be lower. I highly doubt the sox deal Buchholz

 

Agree!

[marklmw]

The reason for Napoli getting a 1 yr deal instead of the agreed upon 3 yr deal was the hip issue. He showed no ill effects from it. Therefore, he boosted his stock. He also posted his second best WAR of his career at 3.9. Aside from his ridiculous outlier yr in 2011 when he hit over .300, he's shown rather remarkable consistency. He's a .250/.360/.470 guy who can play an average 1b. The OBP will lead him to get 3 yr offers elsewhere. My guess is the sox re-sign him to a touch north of the original agreement.

 

Nap's hip issue has not gone away to the best of my knowledge. The Sox were willing to walk away from the deal and no other team jumped in. Although he showed no ill effects from this particular health issue that was the case before the signing last year ... again ... nothing has changed with Nap's health issue unless we hear otherwise. It seems that the issue that he has is not reversible. Could you imagine singing Napoli this year to a 3 year guaranteed contract and he goes down early next season and never returns. Talk about over paying for a player. Bo Jackson had hip issues ... ended his career. If you think that some other team will come in an offer Nap's a 3 year deal then I am all for the Sox's making a QO. The Sox will find a way to fill 1B should he walk.

[marklmw]

I've been looking at the 2014 payroll projections and I'm 110% convinced that Ellsbury is long, long gone.

 

I'll put the projections up soon.

 

I do not think that there is a way to deal off Bailey ... what say you?

[Navafan29]

If we get Salty, Ross, Victorino, Gomes, Nava, all the pitchers except Morales, all the obvious players, and Middlebrooks back then I'll be happy. Also, give Ellsbury and Napoli at least a reasonable offer.

[User Name]

I do not think that there is a way to deal off Bailey ... what say you?

 

Bailey is arb elegible. They can just cut him.