Sizing up the ALCS - starting pitching

[User Name]

Martinez is a better defender at 1B than Fielder. You would still play Cabrera at 3B but at least 1B would be improved. Martinez is an option defensively. He has caught this year and did fairly well catching. The entire left side of the field would be improved simply by catching Martinez.

 

But Martinez is worlds worse than Avila at C, and C is the most important defensive position in the diamond. You negate the improvement right then and there.

 

In the end, it doesn't matter what they do. That defense will have holes. But realistically, what's going to decide the series is SP performance and the back-end of the BP's. It's a toss-up. If you think the Sox couldn't beat the Tigers, then you're a hopeless homer. This could go either way.

[OriginalUsername]

But Martinez is worlds worse than Avila at C, and C is the most important defensive position in the diamond. You negate the improvement right then and there.

 

In the end, it doesn't matter what they do. That defense will have holes. But realistically, what's going to decide the series is SP performance and the back-end of the BP's. It's a toss-up. If you think the Sox couldn't beat the Tigers, then you're a hopeless homer. This could go either way.

 

Where have I said the Red Sox couldn't beat the Tigers? In fact, I have predicted the Red Sox to win the series because the Tigers issues are more with an offense that has gone cold. Martinez is better at catching than you are giving him credit for. He looked good in the few games he did play defensively.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Caller into the Detroit sports talks radio:

 

Caller: "I think the Tigers take 2 in Boston"

Host: "Why's that?"

Caller: "I don't know. I just feel like they will because they liked how it felt last night to beat the A's with Verlander".

 

smdh.

[OriginalUsername]

Caller into the Detroit sports talks radio:

 

Caller: "I think the Tigers take 2 in Boston"

Host: "Why's that?"

Caller: "I don't know. I just feel like they will because they liked how it felt last night to beat the A's with Verlander".

 

smdh.

 

You should've listened after the game three loss to Oakland. Everyone needed to be fired and the team had no heart.

[Bellhorn04]

You should've listened after the game three loss to Oakland. Everyone needed to be fired and the team had no heart.

 

Would have been the same type of crap if the Sox had gone down 2-1 to the Rays.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Either way, I think the Sox take this series in 6.

 

Split at home, drop the Verlander game, win the Fister game and the Lester games, and win the Buch game (6) back at Fenway.

 

Games started by:

Lester: 2-0

Buchholz: 1-1

Lackey: 0-1

Peavy: 1-0

 

Games started by:

Sanchez: 0-2

Scherzer: 1-1

Verlander: 1-0

Fister: 0-1

[OriginalUsername]

Either way, I think the Sox take this series in 6.

 

Split at home, drop the Verlander game, win the Fister game and the Lester games, and win the Buch game (6) back at Fenway.

 

Games started by:

Lester: 2-0

Buchholz: 1-1

Lackey: 0-1

Peavy: 1-0

 

Games started by:

Sanchez: 0-2

Scherzer: 1-1

Verlander: 1-0

Fister: 0-1

 

Tigers have seen Peavy a lot and have been fairly successful against him. I wouldn't make that an automatic win. Tigers also have had good success against Lester.

[User Name]

Where have I said the Red Sox couldn't beat the Tigers? In fact, I have predicted the Red Sox to win the series because the Tigers issues are more with an offense that has gone cold. Martinez is better at catching than you are giving him credit for. He looked good in the few games he did play defensively.

 

I'm saying "if". And no he isn't. Martinez has always been a terrible defensive catcher. Even back when he had healthy knees.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Tigers have seen Peavy a lot and have been fairly successful against him. I wouldn't make that an automatic win. Tigers also have had good success against Lester.

 

Last time the Tigers saw Lester the way he's throwing now, they got dominated.

 

The September/October Lester is entirely different than any other Lester the Tigers faced this year or last year.

[redsoxrules]

Buchholz has been moved up to start game 2.

[sk7326]

The Tigers are a dreadful defensive team although excellent in 2 places. What UZR can point out is if somebody has had a good year - but one year's data does not help much about the actual player's overall ability. Jackson had a down year - but he is an elite CF defensively. Napoli may or may not be a good defensive 1B, but he had good results this year - certainly enough to show he is at least as good as Fielder there. And yeah Infante is solid as well - though more of a utility guy who hits better than one.

 

UZR is not perfect, just the best tool we have in the evolving area of defensive measurement. That said, there are holes. Even among outfielders there are certain flaws like fielders who play home games at Fenway where I think the field is the perfect combination of tiny (so little credit for ranging) and plenty of extra base hits to not be able to get. It has to be complemented by the scouting view.

[seabeachfred]

Then assume Torii Hunter plays all games and nothing happens. He's a below-average defensive OF right now per all accounts.

 

Torii may have slowed down a little but he brings a lot of extras to the teams he plays for. He had another solid season at bat and the guy is a lion in the dugout and clubhouse. You only had to be at Angels Stadium this season to hear all the pissing and moaning about how the Angels stupidly let him get away. He is one Tiger we have to handle in this series.

[seabeachfred]

The Tigers had two series against the Red Sox. The more recent one, the Red Sox humiliated the Tigers 2-1.

The first series was in June was before the Red Sox hit their stride... two of the losses came from Andrew Bailey in the pre-Uehara era, and Allen Webster. Adding Peavy, Buchholz and Middlebrooks are big difference makers here.

 

I think you could be right Pal on that. We have to remember that after our great thirty game start we hit some skids until we righted the ship and started taking on all comers from June on. Also, can you expect to beat the Tigers or anyone when you're depending on Bandages Bailey and Kid Webster to take your chestnuts out of the fire?

[User Name]

Torii may have slowed down a little but he brings a lot of extras to the teams he plays for. He had another solid season at bat and the guy is a lion in the dugout and clubhouse. You only had to be at Angels Stadium this season to hear all the pissing and moaning about how the Angels stupidly let him get away. He is one Tiger we have to handle in this series.

 

We're talking strictly defense, as has been the topic of discussion for the last three-four pages between OUN and I. He posted a 2.5 WAR this year for a reason, since his offense is still above-average and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good defensive OF anymore.

[marklmw]

And the defensive flaws are only going to be exacerbated with the Red Sox speed and the Tigers corner infielders and catchers. It's not like they've got horrible deficiencies in RF or something, where you can't force the ball their way.

 

The Sox are going to be running all over the Tigers with bunts and stolen bases.

 

Let's hope so.

[marklmw]

You're very clearly a Tigers fan, that much is obvious, but it's not a big deal.

 

Nobody is exaggerating anything about their defense. Miggy, when healthy, is a defensive liability. When he's hurt? The Sox are a team that finds holes and exploits them (not gay sex). I don't expect any different this series.

 

Even if Ellsbury and Victorino don't bunt, Cabrera is going to have to cheat even more than usual on the grass and his range is going to be about 1 foot in either direction from that distance.

 

I expect a lot of ground ball base hits on the left side of the infield, especially for Victorino and Pedroia, who always seems to be out in front and hit a big chopper off the plate when he's down in the count.

 

Detroit has issues with Miggy not being healthy ... They need Fielder, Miggy and Martinez in the lineup. If they do use Martinez behind the plate they can DH Miggy and use Paralta and Ingelesis at SS/3B. But from what my friends on this post have said it does not seem likely that Martinez will catch.

[jung]

I hope we are not going to be infested with Tiger fans telling us that Cabrera is back based on a monster mistake pitch inside that Cabrera jacked over the left field fence.

 

Cabrera is done from the waist down and therefore has no power to the opposite field. Just have to keep the ball away from him and be satisfied to give up occasional opposite field singles to him. That will put him on first base where he will become an instant road block since he can't run either.

[marklmw]

I hope we are not going to be infested with Tiger fans telling us that Cabrera is back based on a monster mistake pitch inside that Cabrera jacked over the left field fence.

 

Cabrera is done from the waist down and therefore has no power to the opposite field. Just have to keep the ball away from him and be satisfied to give up occasional opposite field singles to him. That will put him on first base where he will become an instant road block since he can't run either.

 

When do you not pitch Cabrera away ... this series will be no different but because Cabrera is injured it is Martinez I am most worried about and the Sox should be also.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox starters need to keep the Sox in the game so when they get to the Tiger's pen they are within striking distance. The Sox offense needs to do what they have done the whole season, get pitch counts up and get into the pen as soon as possible. Tigers starters going 8 innings or pitching complete games is not going to be good for the Sox.

[seabeachfred]

The Sox starters need to keep the Sox in the game so when they get to the Tiger's pen they are within striking distance. The Sox offense needs to do what they have done the whole season, get pitch counts up and get into the pen as soon as possible. Tigers starters going 8 innings or pitching complete games is not going to be good for the Sox.

 

Well it would help if the hitters would get in the swing of things a little earlier than they did last night and never did in game one. However, the key point is what you said, certainly for Tuesday's game.....We are not going to blast Verlander all over the ballpark so Lackey has to keep us in the game while the offense somehow scratches out three or four runs. It can be done so long as the hitters remember they're playing baseball instead of going fishing. We have swung on some pretty miserable pitches the first two games.

[marklmw]

I hope we are not going to be infested with Tiger fans telling us that Cabrera is back based on a monster mistake pitch inside that Cabrera jacked over the left field fence.

 

Cabrera is done from the waist down and therefore has no power to the opposite field. Just have to keep the ball away from him and be satisfied to give up occasional opposite field singles to him. That will put him on first base where he will become an instant road block since he can't run either.

 

I am not a Tigers fan as you know but Miggy is not human ... he can hit with his hands alone.

[jung]

Well they said before game 2 that Cabrera was looking better and moving better through the hips than he has in weeks. It sorta' showed although he really does not have to use his lower body that much to hit balls up in the zone. Balls down and away would really force him to use his lower body to generate any power. Balls up and out over the plate allow him to just wrist balls over the fence which he can do. But if he really is recovering, maybe he will be his usual dangerous self regardless of where the ball is thrown. Still looked like he was having trouble moving around the diamond.

[marklmw]

Well they said before game 2 that Cabrera was looking better and moving better through the hips than he has in weeks. It sorta' showed although he really does not have to use his lower body that much to hit balls up in the zone. Balls down and away would really force him to use his lower body to generate any power. Balls up and out over the plate allow him to just wrist balls over the fence which he can do. But if he really is recovering, maybe he will be his usual dangerous self regardless of where the ball is thrown. Still looked like he was having trouble moving around the diamond.

 

I think that the Sox should be testing Miggy more ... I would have thrown to second base just to get him to make quick movements to get back to the bag. I would definitely be laying some down the 3rd base line ... if Miggy moves in on Ellsbury then Ellsbury should try to slap the ball past him ... the Sox have to begin making contact at the plate ... obviously.

[sk7326]

the fenway LF helped there, just a perfect pitch to elevate and he is just so strong.