Sizing up the ALCS - starting pitching

[Orange Juiced]

The Tigers had the majors' fourth-best era among starters for 2013. They boast four terrific starting pitchers, and their fifth, Rick Porcello, will be coming out of the bullpen. Their best starter this year was Max Scherzer, the likely AL Cy Young award winner. He was 21-3 with a 2.90 era, 0.97 whip, and 10.1 k/9. In other words, he's tremendous. Their second best starter this year was Anibal Sanchez, who was only the league's era champion, at 2.57, and he also struck out 10.0 batters per 9 innings. Their third best starter was Justin Verlander, who is only a 2-time Cy Young award winner. He had a "down" year, but still put up an impressive line of 3.46 era and 8.9 k/9. And last night he reminded us all what kind of weapon he is, dominating the A's with 8 innings of 2-hit, 10-k, shutout baseball in the deciding game 5. And to round out their rotation is Doug Fister, who will only see one start in the series, but who still had a terrific season, posting a 14-9 record with a 3.67 era. This is a very tough group that brings experience and a wealth of talent to the table.

 

The Red Sox, meanwhile, also have a very solid starting rotation. Jon Lester rebounded from a disappointing 2012 season to post a 15-8, 3.75 line. He pitched very well in game 1 of the ALDS against Tampa, and he also out-dueled Scherzer 2-1 during the regular season. Lester comes into the game with a sterling lifetime postseason pitching line of a 2.54 era, 1.07 whip, and 8.3 k/9. Over his last 11 games (including the ALDS), he put up a line of 77.2 ip, 63 h, 19 er, 23 bb, 59 k, 2.20 era, 1.11 whip, and 6.8 k/9. After Lester on the depth chart is Clay Buchholz, who dealt with injuries this year but who put up incredible numbers: 12-1, 1.74 era, 1.03 whip, and 8.0 k/9. If he had stayed healthy he would very much have been in the mix for the Cy Young award. After him come two veterans with postseason experience: John Lackey (3.52 era) and Jake Peavy (4.04 era with Boston). Lackey has won an AL era title and was the winning pitcher for the Angels in game 7 of the 2002 World Series, so he is not afraid to take the ball in a big spot.

 

The Red Sox' rotation is outstanding, one of the best 1-4 groups in all of baseball. Unfortunately, the group they're matched up against is THE best 1-4 in baseball. The advantage here goes to Detroit, though it wouldn't surprise me at all if Boston's starters did very well.

 

SLIGHT EDGE: DETROIT

[Bellhorn04]

Oh no, it's the dreaded head-to-head comparisons.

 

If these things actually meant anything you'd be able to predict the outcome of every series with precision.

 

Sorry OJ...ranting about the unpredictability of this game is just part of my shtick.

[Orange Juiced]

Oh no, it's the dreaded head-to-head comparisons.

 

If these things actually meant anything you'd be able to predict the outcome of every series with precision.

 

Sorry OJ...ranting about the unpredictability of this game is just part of my shtick.

 

No, that's not what I'm doing. I'm definitely not going to do the position-by-position deal, because that's completely irrelevant. But it *is* relevant to talk about the different areas: starting pitching, bullpen, offense, defense. It doesn't matter where the offense comes from (i.e., whether you get 20 homers from your 1b or LF), but it does matter how good your offense is.

[SoxSport]

Key may be to get to the Tigers bullpen.

[sk7326]

One of the big edges Boston had with the way the series broke down is only having to face Verlander in Games 3 and 7. Yeah it sucks to get him for a Game 7, but if this series gets to 7 - we are depending on a coin flip anyway. The Tigers have the edge in the rotation, with a LOT of bat-missers. But clearly ours is plenty good enough and is CAPABLE of outpitching anybody in a short series - we just saw that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm going to get called a homer for this, but I really think, given the defenses in the series, the Red Sox SP outperforms the Tigers SP.

 

Peralta playing the monster, an incredibly hobbled Cabrera playing 3B with Ellsbury and Victorino's speed (they'll be bunting on him a ton I think), I think it's going to be a much bigger issue than anyone has made it out to be.

 

You think about a 2-1 game or 3-2 game, which is likely what you're going to get in the Scherzer and Verlander games, and maybe even in the Sanchez game. The Sox are going to have to manufacture runs, and the Sox speed is going to be hugely impactful.

 

And once they get on base? They'll be stealing all day. Alex Avila has a 17% CS%. That's disgusting.

 

All of this stuff leads to runs, and while it's not directly "Max Scherzer vs Jon Lester" or whatever, it all impacts the runs allowed, which is what everyone is going to base the SP performance on.

[User Name]

Yeah that's homerrific.

[Orange Juiced]

I'm going to get called a homer for this, but I really think, given the defenses in the series, the Red Sox SP outperforms the Tigers SP.

 

Peralta playing the monster, an incredibly hobbled Cabrera playing 3B with Ellsbury and Victorino's speed (they'll be bunting on him a ton I think), I think it's going to be a much bigger issue than anyone has made it out to be.

 

You think about a 2-1 game or 3-2 game, which is likely what you're going to get in the Scherzer and Verlander games, and maybe even in the Sanchez game. The Sox are going to have to manufacture runs, and the Sox speed is going to be hugely impactful.

 

And once they get on base? They'll be stealing all day. Alex Avila has a 17% CS%. That's disgusting.

 

All of this stuff leads to runs, and while it's not directly "Max Scherzer vs Jon Lester" or whatever, it all impacts the runs allowed, which is what everyone is going to base the SP performance on.

 

Well, I *want* them to bunt on Cabrera - even if he gets them, it'll make a hobbling player do things he doesn't want to do, and that could aggravate his injury. Moreover, I want them constantly running. Detroit's starters aren't good at holding runners, and Avila's terrible at throwing them out. That combined with the fact that the Sox already steal at the highest success rate in MLB....well, it's not a stretch to suggest that the running game could be huge here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah that's homerrific.

 

i appreciate that.

 

I was called a homer in the offseason too for saying the Sox SP could be top 5 in the league, so maybe this bodes well.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Insert Quentin Berry narrative here:

[User Name]

i appreciate that.

 

I was called a homer in the offseason too for saying the Sox SP could be top 5 in the league, so maybe this bodes well.

 

That's what i'm going for. My infamous reverse lock has paid dividends so far.

[sk7326]

The early pick is Tigers in 7 ... the ability to miss bats is enough ... barely. If this sounds like at least a partial reverse jinx - I'll let you decide.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The early pick is Tigers in 7 ... the ability to miss bats is enough ... barely. If this sounds like at least a partial reverse jinx - I'll let you decide.

 

By who??

 

Mike Axisa? The guy who owns River Ave Blues, the Yankees blog? The guy who picked the Red Sox to have an advantage in every position but 3B, and a slight disadvantage in SP, but then goes on to pick the Tigers in 7?

 

He's an idiot.

[sk7326]

By who??

 

Mike Axisa? The guy who owns River Ave Blues, the Yankees blog? The guy who picked the Red Sox to have an advantage in every position but 3B, and a slight disadvantage in SP, but then goes on to pick the Tigers in 7?

 

He's an idiot.

 

Sorry ... MY early pick, Tigers in 7 ... etc etc etc

[Jasonbay44]

I think the Tigers have slightly better pitching, but the Red Sox defense, especially at the moment is a lot better. Miggy looks horrible defensively and Peralta wasn't a good SS and is an even worse LF.

[OriginalUsername]

The Tigers defense isn't nearly as bad as people make it out to be. Most of the Tigers pitchers are flyball/strikeout pitchers. The real issues with the Tigers defense is at the corner infield spots with Fielder and Cabrera. If the Tigers wanted to, they can juggle their lineup and get a good fielding team and not sacrifice offense. They can catch Martinez, shift Peralta to third, play Dirks in LF, and DH Cabrera. Peralta at SS is not that bad. He obviously lacks the range of Ilgesias, but he has good hands and positions himself well. He's really underrated as a defender at SS.

[Bellhorn04]

No, that's not what I'm doing. I'm definitely not going to do the position-by-position deal, because that's completely irrelevant. But it *is* relevant to talk about the different areas: starting pitching, bullpen, offense, defense. It doesn't matter where the offense comes from (i.e., whether you get 20 homers from your 1b or LF), but it does matter how good your offense is.

 

When it's all said and done, I'm expecting a precise and accurate series prediction from you.

[User Name]

The Tigers defense isn't nearly as bad as people make it out to be. Most of the Tigers pitchers are flyball/strikeout pitchers. The real issues with the Tigers defense is at the corner infield spots with Fielder and Cabrera. If the Tigers wanted to, they can juggle their lineup and get a good fielding team and not sacrifice offense. They can catch Martinez, shift Peralta to third, play Dirks in LF, and DH Cabrera. Peralta at SS is not that bad. He obviously lacks the range of Ilgesias, but he has good hands and positions himself well. He's really underrated as a defender at SS.

 

Infante is average, Fielder is below average, Cabrera is awful AND hobbled, Peralta is not a LF, their assorted RF's are below average, Avila can't throw runners out. Their defense may be worse than people make it out to be.

 

For the record, the idea of Martinez catching right now is ludicrous. He has not caught a single game in more than two years.

[Jasonbay44]

Infante is average, Fielder is below average, Cabrera is awful AND hobbled, Peralta is not a LF, their assorted RF's are below average, Avila can't throw runners out. Their defense may be worse than people make it out to be.

THIS! I'd also like to add in that having V-Mart catch is ridiculous. He caught ONE game this season and it was due to Miggy and Avila being injured. He is coming off a serious knee injury and his knees cannot handle catching more than every once in a while.

 

 

Edit: Didn't see the edit already mentioning V-Mart.

[User Name]

I stand corrected on Martinez. One game?

 

For further illustration, the Tigers has a -12.9 UZR this year to Boston's 21.6. UZR is not perfect, but the difference is undeniable.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I stand corrected on Martinez. One game?

 

For further illustration, the Tigers has a -12.9 UZR this year to Boston's 21.6. UZR is not perfect, but the difference is undeniable.

 

And the defensive flaws are only going to be exacerbated with the Red Sox speed and the Tigers corner infielders and catchers. It's not like they've got horrible deficiencies in RF or something, where you can't force the ball their way.

 

The Sox are going to be running all over the Tigers with bunts and stolen bases.

[OriginalUsername]

Actually, Martinez has caught 3 games this year in inter league play, the most recent coming in the final series of the season against Miami. He can catch.

[User Name]

He can catch. By definition, so could Napoli. That doesn't mean they should catch, for obvious reasons.

[OriginalUsername]

He can catch. By definition, so could Napoli. That doesn't mean they should catch, for obvious reasons.

 

It's a forgone conclusion Martinez will catch if the Tigers make the World Series. The issue with stolen bases isn't the catchers. The Tigers pitchers are not good at holding runners, especially Sanchez.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're not going to catch Victor Martinez on a hobbled knee and risk losing him for the rest of the series. Maybe 1 game you'll do it, but you're not going to do it for the whole series or even more than 2 games.

 

Which means the Tigers defensive deficiencies are going to be exploited.

[User Name]

It's a forgone conclusion Martinez will catch if the Tigers make the World Series. The issue with stolen bases isn't the catchers. The Tigers pitchers are not good at holding runners, especially Sanchez.

 

No it isn't.

[OriginalUsername]

Infante is average, Fielder is below average, Cabrera is awful AND hobbled, Peralta is not a LF, their assorted RF's are below average, Avila can't throw runners out. Their defense may be worse than people make it out to be.

 

For the record, the idea of Martinez catching right now is ludicrous. He has not caught a single game in more than two years.

 

What is assorted about RF? It's Torii Hunter.

[OriginalUsername]

No it isn't.

 

Yes it is. They wouldn't have caught Victor Martinez in the final series of the season after having clinched the division if they had no intention of catching him in the World Series.

[User Name]

What is assorted about RF? It's Torii Hunter.

 

Torii Hunter is no longer an elite RF, he's a slightly below average OF, but their OF bench guys are natural RF's (which is why i said assorted RF's) combined for a -3.1 UZR this season. Don't be fooled by the name.

[OriginalUsername]

Torii Hunter is no longer an elite RF, he's a slightly below average OF, but their OF bench guys are natural RF's (which is why i said assorted RF's) combined for a -3.1 UZR this season. Don't be fooled by the name.

 

Nobody on the bench is going to start and/or play ahead of Torii Hunter in this series unless he is injured. The assorted part just seemed odd.