2013 Pennant Chase

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think it's important Farrell continues to platoon these guys--playing on their depth. Bradley adds to their depth in the OF, so Ellsbury will not be missed as badly. Where is Carp? Must be hurt. Nap is hot in September, but needs a breather against a tough righty. Buchholz could have a big impact approaching the playoffs. I see Lackey has to give up 7 runs to get a win. Go figure.

 

I wouldn't give up on starting Doubront yet, but I think Dempster's experience closing should be utilized to help out Koji and Tazawa.

 

I wouldn't even talk to Napoli right now, much less take him out of the lineup. That guy is as hot as they come. And he is historically good in September.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sox have the biggest divisional lead in the AL.

 

And the best record in the AL by 3.5 games.

[Thunder]

Guardians already have a 2-0 lead in the first, still no one out. I'm watching on the Mets network.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox winning the first three games against the $pankees has helped both the O's and the Guardians as they both have passed them in the wild card standings. Baltimore has four at home against the $panks next week, and the Guardians are done with the Tigers and have 15 of their remaining 21 games against teams who are out of the playoff chase. Besides the Sox clinching the AL East, the elimination of the $pankees would be great.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Not sure what thread it was, but Forsyth hit the nail right on the head with the Rays. He said once they went on the west coast trip, they'd start to suck it up. They sure are big time.Last road trip out west, they won zero games. On this road trip, they are 3-10 and could be 3-11 if they lose tonight. They are currently losing 3-0 right now to the Mariners. This division lead is about to get real comfortable.

[Emmz]

It's never really "in the bag" until the Rays and Yanks are mathematically eliminated, but realistically the race right now is for 2nd place. The Sox have been playing their best lately, and at the right time. They've won a lot of tough games and they look nothing like the 2011 team did going through September.

 

I think they got the division, and I think they've gotta be the favs to win the WS at this point. Very solid rotation that's only going to get better when Buch's back, the bullpen usually has it under control, and Koji shuts it down every time he goes out. Mike Napoli is looking like he's one of the best hitters in baseball again, and when he gets hot, he usually doesn't cool off until the season's over. Could easily see him having a monster postseason like he did with Texas a few years ago.

[Emmz]

Also

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/23516472/koji-uehara-completes-hidden-perfect-game-on-friday-night

 

Don't know if anyone posted this. Sick.

[jung]

It amazes me no end how much attention the start of the pro football season now gets in this town right in the middle of what has got to be considered one of the watershed and most entertaining seasons in Red Sox history.

 

I played both games on an organized basis at least through high school and while telling a teenage boy that he is going to be able to go out and hit people as hard as he can every day for a couple months has an appeal all its own at that age, baseball IMO is so much a better game. It is even a better TV game if MLB in its various monied constituencies, owners, PA and Networks had not f***ed it up so much.

 

You don't see what matters watching football on TV. By the time the QB either hands the ball off or throws the ball, the play has already happened. Yet unless you know what to look for and are fortunate in what the damned camera is following, your chances of seeing it are slim to none. In baseball at least you get to see the pitcher throwing to the catcher with the batter in the box. While I would love a positional shot of the fielders more often than baseball provides it, you get to see the relationship between the pitcher and hitter, the most important relationship to the outcome of every single play or pitch. On top of that, the cameras are quick enough to at least get you to where the fielder is going to make his play and what he is going to do from there. Only the three groups in combination, owners, PA and Networks could have f***ed up something so beautiful to the point now where there are serious discussions that pro football is now the "national pastime". I could just scream!

[mvp 78]

Howie Long said it best: "baseball is America's past time. Football is its passion."

[VA Sox Fan]

Down the stretch come the Red Sox

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff September 9, 2013 11:48 AM

 

 

TAMPA, Fla. — The Red Sox (87-58) have a 7.5 game lead on the Tampa Bay Rays (78-64) in the American League East. The third-place Baltimore Orioles (76-66) are 9.5 games out.

 

According to Cool Standings the Red Sox have a 99-percent chance of winning the division.

 

But until the Red Sox are soaking their beards in champagne, perhaps it would be worth examining the pennant race. After all, Cool Standings said the Sox had a 93.1 percent chance of making the playoffs after 145 games in 2011.

 

Theme song for the Sox right now? "Ninety-Nine And A Half (Won't Do)." The Wilson Pickett version is quite excellent.

 

The schedule: The Sox have 17 games left. After three games at Tampa Bay, they have a nine-game homestand against the Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays. Then they end the season with two games at Colorado and three at Baltimore.

 

The opposition: Tampa Bay has a brutal schedule. The Rays are off today after a 3-7 West Coast trip. After three games against the Red Sox they go back on the road for three games at Minnesota before returning home for four games against Texas and three against Baltimore. Then they finish on the road against the Yankees and Blue Jays.

 

The advantage: Starting Tuesday the Red Sox have 17 games in 20 days. Starting Tuesday the Rays have 20 games in 20 days.

 

The issue: The loss of Jacoby Ellsbury will certainly affect the Sox. He's one of the best players in the game; their lineup is not the same without him. But his absence shouldn't lead to a collapse and all indications are that he should return before the end of the season.

 

The Sox have Jackie Bradley on the roster and Quentin Berry should be able to steal a base when needed. Worth noting: The Sox are 10-4 this season in games Ellsbury hasn't started.

 

Given Ellsbury's pending free agency, might the Sox play Bradley every day to see what they have in him?

 

The incentive: If the Sox win the division, they'll have four days off before their first playoff game, which would almost certainly be at home. Four days off would help battered players like Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia feel significantly better.

 

Prediction: The Sox go 10-7 down the stretch and finish with 97 wins. That would win the division going away.

[sk7326]

It amazes me no end how much attention the start of the pro football season now gets in this town right in the middle of what has got to be considered one of the watershed and most entertaining seasons in Red Sox history.

 

I played both games on an organized basis at least through high school and while telling a teenage boy that he is going to be able to go out and hit people as hard as he can every day for a couple months has an appeal all its own at that age, baseball IMO is so much a better game. It is even a better TV game if MLB in its various monied constituencies, owners, PA and Networks had not f***ed it up so much.

 

You don't see what matters watching football on TV. By the time the QB either hands the ball off or throws the ball, the play has already happened. Yet unless you know what to look for and are fortunate in what the damned camera is following, your chances of seeing it are slim to none. In baseball at least you get to see the pitcher throwing to the catcher with the batter in the box. While I would love a positional shot of the fielders more often than baseball provides it, you get to see the relationship between the pitcher and hitter, the most important relationship to the outcome of every single play or pitch. On top of that, the cameras are quick enough to at least get you to where the fielder is going to make his play and what he is going to do from there. Only the three groups in combination, owners, PA and Networks could have f***ed up something so beautiful to the point now where there are serious discussions that pro football is now the "national pastime". I could just scream!

 

It would have happened anyway. Football's attachment to gambling (and I include fantasy here) and what a perfect game it is for television - both (as well as how little it requires of fans) made its appeal kind of inevitable. Baseball did not help itself - although mostly by not selling the things that are appealing about the game now (as well as getting wood bats into kids hands across the board). But baseball was going to have a hard time regardless - fewer playing it younger, and it is hard to have a good "game of the week" culture when virtually every game is on television.

[rjortiz]

Football is the new national pastime. I love baseball, but it doesn't cause church attendance to drop.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Football is the new national pastime. I love baseball, but it doesn't cause church attendance to drop.

 

That's because most baseball fans have given up on believing in God. I wonder if there are any Cubs fans left who aren't either atheists or Satanists by now.

[Thunder]

That's because most baseball fans have given up on believing in God. I wonder if there are any Cubs fans left who aren't either atheists or Satanists by now.

 

I wonder how many Cubs fan are even left, period.

[a700hitter]

Epstein the egotist is only in year 2 of his 5 year plan. He needs more time.

[rjortiz]

Epstein the egotist is only in year 2 of his 5 year plan. He needs more time.

 

In fairness to Epstein, he's done a pretty good job rebuilding the farm system. That franchise was in awful shape when he took over, and they needed to start from scratch. He had a pretty decent track record drafting and developing players. Other than the 2004 trade, he didn't make the best trades, and his free agency record is not that great. That is what will make or break the Cubs.

[Youk Of The Nation]

My bet is on "break".

[rjortiz]

My bet is on "break".

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Ellsbury flop on him, and the Rays fleece him in a David Price deal.

[Navafan29]

It would have happened anyway. Football's attachment to gambling (and I include fantasy here) and what a perfect game it is for television - both (as well as how little it requires of fans) made its appeal kind of inevitable. Baseball did not help itself - although mostly by not selling the things that are appealing about the game now (as well as getting wood bats into kids hands across the board). But baseball was going to have a hard time regardless - fewer playing it younger, and it is hard to have a good "game of the week" culture when virtually every game is on television.

 

If you think baseball has problems now, wait until we expand instant replay to remove all controversy and make the sport boring.

[VA Sox Fan]

If you think baseball has problems now, wait until we expand instant replay to remove all controversy and make the sport boring.

 

They won't be able to use on balls vs strikes and that's always a hot button for a lot of fans.

[sk7326]

In fairness to Epstein, he's done a pretty good job rebuilding the farm system. That franchise was in awful shape when he took over, and they needed to start from scratch. He had a pretty decent track record drafting and developing players. Other than the 2004 trade, he didn't make the best trades, and his free agency record is not that great. That is what will make or break the Cubs.

 

Well part of it is how much leeway he has (or whether it really mattered) to hold on to guys and not make a big splash. The Cubs ownership made a big splash to sign him (as opposed to the Red Sox who promoted him from within) so he should have more freedom to not make moves based on TV ratings. His free agent evaluation was not great (although almost all free agent signings are negative return) but he can build systems. Certainly his staffs have all been among the best - at the end of the day a lot of this is ownership priority. If ownership says NESN needs us to sign Carl Crawford, then all the talent evaluation doesn't matter.

[seabeachfred]

It amazes me no end how much attention the start of the pro football season now gets in this town right in the middle of what has got to be considered one of the watershed and most entertaining seasons in Red Sox history.

 

I played both games on an organized basis at least through high school and while telling a teenage boy that he is going to be able to go out and hit people as hard as he can every day for a couple months has an appeal all its own at that age, baseball IMO is so much a better game. It is even a better TV game if MLB in its various monied constituencies, owners, PA and Networks had not f***ed it up so much.

 

You don't see what matters watching football on TV. By the time the QB either hands the ball off or throws the ball, the play has already happened. Yet unless you know what to look for and are fortunate in what the damned camera is following, your chances of seeing it are slim to none. In baseball at least you get to see the pitcher throwing to the catcher with the batter in the box. While I would love a positional shot of the fielders more often than baseball provides it, you get to see the relationship between the pitcher and hitter, the most important relationship to the outcome of every single play or pitch. On top of that, the cameras are quick enough to at least get you to where the fielder is going to make his play and what he is going to do from there. Only the three groups in combination, owners, PA and Networks could have f***ed up something so beautiful to the point now where there are serious discussions that pro football is now the "national pastime". I could just scream!

 

Well said Jung. I coached both sports when I was a teacher. During football season when I was coaching that sport I was thinking of baseball. I never thought of football when I was coaching our favorite sport. I think baseball has football beat 2-1. It is a better radio game and better in person. Football might better as a TV game but it is so predictable. You either throw the ball or hand it off. When the pitcher throws the ball there are dozens of scenarios, and when it comes to talent nothing is harder than hitting a round ball with a round bat. That talent alone has driven countless athletes to the football field.

[seabeachfred]

I'm still a little worried VA; still haven't fully recovered from 2011, but I hope you're right. Kuddos to you for your upbeat take on things. I hope I can fall in line within a week.

[Thunder]

Yesterday's loss woke me up a little bit. All FGL humor aside, I was ready to roll my windows down and watch the Sox cruise to the playoffs, but this will be a tough and very important week coming up. I would love to see Clay start against the Yankees on Sunday. Dempster can go to the pen, that's fine. We need one game at a time. A chance of a repeat of 2011 is still very possible.

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm still a little worried VA; still haven't fully recovered from 2011, but I hope you're right. Kuddos to you for your upbeat take on things. I hope I can fall in line within a week.

 

Not sure which post of mine you're referring to but thanks.

[rjortiz]

Yesterday's loss woke me up a little bit. All FGL humor aside, I was ready to roll my windows down and watch the Sox cruise to the playoffs, but this will be a tough and very important week coming up. I would love to see Clay start against the Yankees on Sunday. Dempster can go to the pen, that's fine. We need one game at a time. A chance of a repeat of 2011 is still very possible.

 

Nope. Zero percent chance of that happening. Rays played seven against us in 2011, they only play three this year. Compared to 2011, the Red Sox would have to play at a worse percentage, and the Rays would have to play better. Not happening.

[sk7326]

The Red Sox have not flat run out of healthy pitchers this time around. Our rotation is healthy and the bullpen is in solid shape. I am not worried about the playoffs - just a seed.

[sk7326]

Yesterday's loss woke me up a little bit. All FGL humor aside, I was ready to roll my windows down and watch the Sox cruise to the playoffs, but this will be a tough and very important week coming up. I would love to see Clay start against the Yankees on Sunday. Dempster can go to the pen, that's fine. We need one game at a time. A chance of a repeat of 2011 is still very possible.

 

We weren't going to go unbeaten. We had no business almost winning yesterday - took a rally to do even THAT. We were bound to lose here and there.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yesterday's loss woke me up a little bit. All FGL humor aside, I was ready to roll my windows down and watch the Sox cruise to the playoffs, but this will be a tough and very important week coming up. I would love to see Clay start against the Yankees on Sunday. Dempster can go to the pen, that's fine. We need one game at a time. A chance of a repeat of 2011 is still very possible.

 

Couple things -

 

- Through 145 G in 2011, the Red Sox had a 4.5 game lead on the Rays in the WC. Through 145 G in 2013, the Red Sox have a 7.5 game lead on the Rays in the AL East. In order to lose this lead at this point, it would require a bigger collapse than 2011.

 

- If the Red Sox play .500 baseball (or a tick above it, I guess, since there are 17 games left), and go 9-8, they would win 96 games. For the Rays to win 96 games, they must go 18-2. Hell, if the Red Sox go 4-13 the rest of the way, for the Rays to tie they'd have to go 13-7.

 

- The Sox still have games against TOR (who no longer has Bautista, as he has been shut down for the year) and COL. Those are two very easy series.

 

- The Red Sox play 17 games in 20 days from here on out. The Rays play 20 games in 20 days. And they're coming off a horrific west coast trip. Their bullpen arms are obviously getting tired, and their starters aren't performing well at all. Not to mention they're ice cold with the bats.

 

No, this is not another 2011. If the Red Sox and Rays play exactly like 2011 from today on, the Red Sox win the East with a 2 game lead.

[Orange Juiced]

Couple things -

 

- Through 145 G in 2011, the Red Sox had a 4.5 game lead on the Rays in the WC. Through 145 G in 2013, the Red Sox have a 7.5 game lead on the Rays in the AL East. In order to lose this lead at this point, it would require a bigger collapse than 2011.

 

- If the Red Sox play .500 baseball (or a tick above it, I guess, since there are 17 games left), and go 9-8, they would win 96 games. For the Rays to win 96 games, they must go 18-2. Hell, if the Red Sox go 4-13 the rest of the way, for the Rays to tie they'd have to go 13-7.

 

- The Sox still have games against TOR (who no longer has Bautista, as he has been shut down for the year) and COL. Those are two very easy series.

 

- The Red Sox play 17 games in 20 days from here on out. The Rays play 20 games in 20 days. And they're coming off a horrific west coast trip. Their bullpen arms are obviously getting tired, and their starters aren't performing well at all. Not to mention they're ice cold with the bats.

 

No, this is not another 2011. If the Red Sox and Rays play exactly like 2011 from today on, the Red Sox win the East with a 2 game lead.

 

Not to say that crazy things can't happen, but it is exceedingly difficult for me to see how the Sox do not win the division at this point. Just go 7-10 and the Rays have to go 16-4 just to tie.

 

Put it this way: the Rays need to sweep this series against the Sox to have any chance whatsoever.

 

Sox' magic number is just 12.