2013 Pennant Chase

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Red Sox can manage to win 1 game in the final head to head series with Tampa, they will be out of our hair for the division. Frankly Tampa is closer to being knocked out at this point.

 

Looks like it's going to be Hellickson v Buchholz, Price v Peavy, and Cobb v Doubront.

 

I actually really like the Sox chances to take 2/3 there.

[rjortiz]

Fangraphs mused about this http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/play-in-game-strategy-skip-the-starter/

 

That's the article. Cameron is pretty sharp. He's definitely my favorite baseball writer. He's a welcome change from the melodrama that oozes out of Dan Shaughnessy, or the "I don't get it, so I'll just bash it," Jason Whitlock.

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's the article. Cameron is pretty sharp. He's definitely my favorite baseball writer. He's a welcome change from the melodrama that oozes out of Dan Shaughnessy, or the "I don't get it, so I'll just bash it," Jason Whitlock.

 

I met Dave at the FG meet and greet a couple weeks ago. Really, really nice guy. I got there early and got to shoot the s*** with him for about 20 minutes before everyone else showed up. Really cool experience.

[rjortiz]

Looks like it's going to be Hellickson v Buchholz, Price v Peavy, and Cobb v Doubront.

 

I actually really like the Sox chances to take 2/3 there.

 

I doubt that Hellickson makes that start. They can and should skip him.

[jung]

Well looking at the proposed schedule for post season play including play-in games, MLB has managed to make a total farce of what was already something of one to begin with.

 

We all knew this whole idea that the two WC team format with play in was a fallacy and now MLB has proved it. The way the schedule has been designed an AL WC team will be able to use their #1 rotation guy in the play in game AND use him in the first game of the Division series. So much for making winning the division mean something.

 

It also looks like most if not the entire League Championship Series will be alternating days AL and NL making it more likely that we will see a top rotation guy pitch game 1 and game 4.

 

MLB IMO had a perfect system or as close to perfect as it was going to get in the 1 WC system. Now it has a mess. At best if it insists on continuing the two WC system it has to find a way to fit a three game series in. As it stands now they are actually doing themselves more damage than good. Why should casual fans care about the 162? No reason in the world. They have turned the 162, long considered sacrosanct in baseball into ....yup you guessed it...a farce.

 

No wonder ratings and attendance are down across baseball. Catering to the Networks only works if the Networks know what the f*** they are doing long term with regard to baseball. What Network would care about baseball farther out than the length of its contract with baseball? Answer....none.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well looking at the proposed schedule for post season play including play-in games, MLB has managed to make a total farce of what was already something of one to begin with.

 

We all knew this whole idea that the two WC team format with play in was a fallacy and now MLB has proved it. The way the schedule has been designed an AL WC team will be able to use their #1 rotation guy in the play in game AND use him in the first game of the Division series. So much for making winning the division mean something.

 

It also looks like most if not the entire League Championship Series will be alternating days AL and NL making it more likely that we will see a top rotation guy pitch game 1 and game 4.

 

MLB IMO had a perfect system or as close to perfect as it was going to get in the 1 WC system. Now it has a mess. At best if it insists on continuing the two WC system it has to find a way to fit a three game series in. As it stands now they are actually doing themselves more damage than good. Why should casual fans care about the 162? No reason in the world. They have turned the 162, long considered sacrosanct in baseball into ....yup you guessed it...a farce.

 

No wonder ratings and attendance are down across baseball. Catering to the Networks only works if the Networks know what the f*** they are doing long term with regard to baseball. What Network would care about baseball farther out than the length of its contract with baseball? Answer....none.

 

Not sure where you're coming from here jung.

 

The AL WC Play In Game is on Tuesday, 10/2. Game 1 of the ALDS is Friday, 10/5. That would give the ace 2 days of rest, and nobody would start their ace on 2 days of rest.

 

In fact, the schedule for the ALDS goes 10/4, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, and 10/10. If a team pitches their ace in the play-in game, they would not be able to pitch him twice in the ALDS without going on short rest at least once (10/2-10/5 is 3 days rest, and 10/7-10/10 is 3 days rest).

 

The only complaint I can see is that your ace can pitch in game 162 and then open the ALDS if you make it, which is really not a huge deal IMO.

 

The ALCS is no different than any other year. 2-3-2 with a travel day on either side of the 3 gamer. 10/12, 10/13, 10/15, 10/16, 10/17, 10/19, 10/20.

 

So I'm not quite sure where you're going with this stuff?

 

Here's the link to the schedule. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_schedule

[sk7326]

Schedule is here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130903&content_id=59414608&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

TBS covers Wild Card and Division Series - NLCS. FOX does ALCS.

 

NL Wild Card is October 1 - those division series start October 3 ... so 2 day turnaround

AL Wild Card is October 2, ALDS start October 4 ... 2 day turnaround.

 

It's still a pretty tight turn.

 

NLDS A and B: October 3, 4, 6, 7, 9 ... the travel day between Games 4 and 5 is new

ALDS A and B: October 4, 5, 7, 8, 10

 

NLCS: October 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19 ... remember in 2004 we had the rainout before Game 3 which eliminated that Game 5/6 travel day

ALCS: October 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20

 

WORLD SERIES: October 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31

 

The 3-day break minimum before the World Series is a bit long. But at the same time, baseball did not alter its schedule to avoid Sunday Night Football so go figure.

[sk7326]

Not sure where you're coming from here jung.

 

The AL WC Play In Game is on Tuesday, 10/2. Game 1 of the ALDS is Friday, 10/5. That would give the ace 2 days of rest, and nobody would start their ace on 2 days of rest.

 

In fact, the schedule for the ALDS goes 10/4, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, and 10/10. If a team pitches their ace in the play-in game, they would not be able to pitch him twice in the ALDS without going on short rest at least once (10/2-10/5 is 3 days rest, and 10/7-10/10 is 3 days rest).

 

The only complaint I can see is that your ace can pitch in game 162 and then open the ALDS if you make it, which is really not a huge deal IMO.

 

The ALCS is no different than any other year. 2-3-2 with a travel day on either side of the 3 gamer. 10/12, 10/13, 10/15, 10/16, 10/17, 10/19, 10/20.

 

So I'm not quite sure where you're going with this stuff?

 

Here's the link to the schedule. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_schedule

 

Oops - what I get for typing while you sent this

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have 11 players with at least 200 PA's.

 

Of the 11, 9 of them have an OPS of .775 or higher.

 

The 2 that don't are Gomes at .751 and WMB at .703.

 

That is some fantastic depth and balance on offence.

[User Name]

On the pitching side, every starter sans Dempster has an ERA under 4.00, and their top 3 relievers all have ERA's under 3.00, ERA+ over 150, and WHIP under 1.20.

 

Lots of balance.

[Orange Juiced]

The Red Sox have 11 players with at least 200 PA's.

 

Of the 11, 9 of them have an OPS of .775 or higher.

 

The 2 that don't are Gomes at .751 and WMB at .703.

 

That is some fantastic depth and balance on offence.

 

And WMB's numbers are really night-and-day since his recall:

 

Apr 1 - Jun 20: .192/.228/.389/.617

Aug 10 - Sep 4: .343/.413/.529/.941

 

So he's been a totally different player since he came back to Boston. I don't expect a .941 ops from him the rest of the way, but he's looking much more like an .800 ops guy than a .700 ops guy.

[rjortiz]

And WMB's numbers are really night-and-day since his recall:

 

Apr 1 - Jun 20: .192/.228/.389/.617

Aug 10 - Sep 4: .343/.413/.529/.941

 

So he's been a totally different player since he came back to Boston. I don't expect a .941 ops from him the rest of the way, but he's looking much more like an .800 ops guy than a .700 ops guy.

 

I think he's going to fall to earth, (.405 BABIP in August, .444 in September) but can't argue with past success, even if it was lucky.

[sk7326]

I think he's going to fall to earth, (.405 BABIP in August, .444 in September) but can't argue with past success, even if it was lucky.

 

The BABIP will fall - but the walk rate is very encouraging ... he's not going to be Youk, but he is not hopelessly flailing away either. Even if he falls back to your expected BABIP - this is a guy we can live with as a 3B.

[jung]

Myself I would prefer better defense on the left side if XB is going to be the SS alongside WMB, I am not convinced they will hit so good as a pair that it will offset the defensive weakness they will create on the left side. I would prefer to see WMB continue on the path as a power hitter that he was on and move over to 1st, have XB at 3rd and a competent SS, at least in the sense of what the Sox consider to be a competent SS.

 

I just do not know what WMB did in the minors to convince people he had the potential to be a solid defensive 3rd baseman. I just don't see it. However I think XB will be able to hold his own at 3rd while being subpar at SS.

[Bellhorn04]

Myself I would prefer better defense on the left side if XB is going to be the SS alongside WMB, I am not convinced they will hit so good as a pair that it will offset the defensive weakness they will create on the left side. I would prefer to see WMB continue on the path as a power hitter that he was on and move over to 1st, have XB at 3rd and a competent SS, at least in the sense of what the Sox consider to be a competent SS.

 

Drew has been very competent. His WAR of 2.7 is 10th among ML SS's. He's also been, dare I say it, CLUTCH.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think he's going to fall to earth, (.405 BABIP in August, .444 in September) but can't argue with past success, even if it was lucky.

 

Yeah, but his overall BABIP this year is still just .274, so on the season he's still had a few less balls fall than he should have. Plus, he had a 23% LD% in August, which is the main reason his BABIP skyrocketed.

 

He's not going to continue to hit .350 the rest of the season (or maybe he will, it's only 20 games), but regardless, I would guess that his line next year will be more around .265/.320/.475.

[Orange Juiced]

I think he's going to fall to earth, (.405 BABIP in August, .444 in September) but can't argue with past success, even if it was lucky.

 

The thing about WMB, as compared to Iglesias, is that even when he was going bad, WMB could run into a pitch and drive it out. Even before he was sent down, even though he wasn't getting on base at all, he still had 9 homers. Now that he's getting on base, he's being incredibly productive.

 

Of course I expect him to slow down, but he's still a huge offensive lift from Iglesias.

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah, but his overall BABIP this year is still just .274, so on the season he's still had a few less balls fall than he should have. Plus, he had a 23% LD% in August, which is the main reason his BABIP skyrocketed.

 

He's not going to continue to hit .350 the rest of the season (or maybe he will, it's only 20 games), but regardless, I would guess that his line next year will be more around .265/.320/.475.

 

If Middlebrooks, during his age 25 season, puts up an .800 ops with 25 homers and 80 rbi, while playing above-average defense at 3b, at the cost of a minimum MLB salary, we should all say a prayer of thanks.

 

And don't get me wrong - I think he's totally capable of that, which is why he's potentially incredibly valuable to this team.

[jung]

WMB is capable of everything but the above average defense. He just does not have it and he is back to using that weak assed throw AGAIN. Thought they broke him of that earlier this season but NOT.

[jung]

I want to see some of these players get some rest before this gets out of hand. Pedey has not taken a real break of any kind all season and it has finally started to show. He is running on adrenaline at this point which is actually more threatening to his health. I don't want to see any of them take so many days that they get out of sync but Pedey needs rest for sure....made that lazy play last night on the DP...something we never see him do. Vic needs rest...could not even stay out there long enough for a Dell interview last night and blew her off on the way past to the locker room and undoubtedly the training table.

 

Taz is very close to a shot load for the second time this season. Pitchers can recover once in a season...twice is asking a lot. Unfortunately I think if Taz can't go Farrell is going to lean harder on Ueh which could actually turn out to be disastrous for the Sox. The problem with overtaxing Ueh in what is soon becoming games that just don't mean very much is that without Ueh, this team is done...toast...adios amigos. You can't risk Ueh in single games at this point this far up in the standings. I would now begin to be less inclined to use Ueh for even four outs but I might still in the right situation. I would not UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES use him for more than four outs and I would not UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES bring him into tie games in the 9th on the road.

[Behindenemylines]

I want to see some of these players get some rest before this gets out of hand. Pedey has not taken a real break of any kind all season and it has finally started to show. He is running on adrenaline at this point which is actually more threatening to his health. I don't want to see any of them take so many days that they get out of sync but Pedey needs rest for sure....made that lazy play last night on the DP...something we never see him do. Vic needs rest...could not even stay out there long enough for a Dell interview last night and blew her off on the way past to the locker room and undoubtedly the training table.

 

Taz is very close to a shot load for the second time this season. Pitchers can recover once in a season...twice is asking a lot. Unfortunately I think if Taz can't go Farrell is going to lean harder on Ueh which could actually turn out to be disastrous for the Sox. The problem with overtaxing Ueh in what is soon becoming games that just don't mean very much is that without Ueh, this team is done...toast...adios amigos. You can't risk Ueh in single games at this point this far up in the standings. I would now begin to be less inclined to use Ueh for even four outs but I might still in the right situation. I would not UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES use him for more than four outs and I would not UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES bring him into tie games in the 9th on the road.

 

Hopefully, with the lead up to 7 1/2 games the Sox will be able to rest some of their starters down the stretch. Even though Farrell has rested some players that have had nagging injuries. He has done this with Napoli, Ellsbury and Salty lately. He has also pulled guys late in games to give them some rest.

[Thunder]

At this point, I would only give Clay 2 starts and then rest him for the playoffs, assuming he does well.

[BSN07]

At this point, I would only give Clay 2 starts and then rest him for the playoffs, assuming he does well.

 

It be a bad idea to ramp him up and then rest him again. He needs work before the playoffs. If he is healthy he needs to be going every 5th day right into the playoffs imo.

[Jasonbay44]

It be a bad idea to ramp him up and then rest him again. He needs work before the playoffs. If he is healthy he needs to be going every 5th day right into the playoffs imo.

100% agree. Buchholz is one guy I wouldn't worry about resting, he needs the work.

[Thunder]

I just think he's too valuable.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Sox go 9-9 to finish the season, the Rays would have to go 19-3 to tie it up.

 

If the Yankees win out, they will finish with 95 wins. If the Red Sox play .500 baseball, they will win 96 games.

 

This makes me smile.

[Thunder]

If the Sox go 9-9 to finish the season, the Rays would have to go 19-3 to tie it up.

 

If the Yankees win out, they will finish with 95 wins. If the Red Sox play .500 baseball, they will win 96 games.

 

This makes me smile.

 

I can guarantee you the Yankees won't win out. We have 4 more with them.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I can guarantee you the Yankees won't win out. We have 4 more with them.

 

I know they won't. The point of that was to show that the best the Yankees could do would be 1 game short of the Red Sox playing .500 baseball.

[Thunder]

Orioles walk off in 10th, gain a game on the Skanks. Guardians play the Mets, should be a win.

[SoxSport]

I think it's important Farrell continues to platoon these guys--playing on their depth. Bradley adds to their depth in the OF, so Ellsbury will not be missed as badly. Where is Carp? Must be hurt. Nap is hot in September, but needs a breather against a tough righty. Buchholz could have a big impact approaching the playoffs. I see Lackey has to give up 7 runs to get a win. Go figure.

 

I wouldn't give up on starting Doubront yet, but I think Dempster's experience closing should be utilized to help out Koji and Tazawa.