Current Red Sox playoff chances

[sk7326]

Odds are excellent. Just need to keep chopping wood, win series, avoid serious swoons. Blue Jays series was tough - bunch of coin flip games.

[SoxSport]

I would say the odds of them making the playoffs are 50/50. They have holes against LHP that have been ignored up to this point. Grandpa Pettite shut them down tonite. About every LH starter has been effective against them lately. They will see a steady diet of LHP the rest of the season. If they don't hit them, they will miss the playoffs.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

In England the Bookmakers who take bets have:

 

10/11(just over 50%) Redsox

6/5 Tampa Bay

11/1 Baltimore

18/1 Yankees

N-o Toronto

 

Just if you wanted to know.

 

Given our schedules these are generous odds on Tampa and Baltimore some could argue are value considering they have 9 V us

 

O well.

Edited August 17, 2013 by BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life

[rjortiz]

In England the Bookmakers who take bets have:

 

10/11(just over 50%) Redsox

6/5 Tampa Bay

11/1 Baltimore

18/1 Yankees

N-o Toronto

 

Just if you wanted to know.

 

Given our schedules these are generous odds on Tampa and Baltimore some could argue are value considering they have 9 V us

 

O well.

 

Baltimore's not catching anyone with that pitching staff.

[rjortiz]

I would say the odds of them making the playoffs are 50/50. They have holes against LHP that have been ignored up to this point. Grandpa Pettite shut them down tonite. About every LH starter has been effective against them lately. They will see a steady diet of LHP the rest of the season. If they don't hit them, they will miss the playoffs.

 

The Red Sox have a 4.5 game lead with 38 to play. The odds of them making the playoffs are substantially larger than 50/50.

[Emmz]

I've lost all faith in this team, and I'm now trying to come to the realization that they will, once again, miss the post season. The earlier I start telling myself that, the less it hurts when it happens.

 

Wow, does that really help?

 

It's like when you're a kid and you start cheering for the other team to do good just so that you jinx them.

[jad]

Well, a 1 game lead now. With a feeble line-up: Els not hitting; Napoli a K-machine; Holt and Snyder (who?); gomes (who gets the Youk award for being a self-proclaimed 'dirt-dog' and 'gamer' while hitting under .250); Drew (the usual). That line-up is threatening to look like the triple-A lineup we saw late last year. Not there, of course; just threatening.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox are hitting a rough patch at the wrong time. Their offense leads the charge and over the last few games, the O has fallen flat. If it wasn't for a bad error last night, you'd have been held to 1 run by a guy who couldn't shut down a little league lineup. Their O must pick up or they're done. The sox pitching isn't good enough to sustain winning

[Bellhorn04]

Mostly on gut feelings, and adjusted for long-term-Sox-fan mental and emotional damage, I'd put our chances of winning the division now at about 30%, and our chances of making the playoffs at about 70%.

[Palodios]

Here's Pal's stat of the day.

 

Salty's CERA -- 4.00.

Ross's CERA -- 3.00.

 

Salty's OPS versus lefties .590.

Ross' OPS versus lefties .728.

 

David Ross returns Monday. He's a guy who could help stabilize the pitching, and offset some of the problems we've seen against left handed pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

David Ross returns Monday. He's a guy who could help stabilize the pitching, and offset some of the problems we've seen against left handed pitching.

 

That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.

[Bellhorn04]

Assigning percentages to your chances is actually kind of silly when you think about it. It's just another way of shielding yourself from cold reality. Which is that it's only a binary proposition. It's like the old joke that a woman can't be a little pregnant. We either make it or we don't. As of today I vote yes, we'll make the playoffs. But I'll revisit after the West Coast trip.

[BigPapi]

That's good. And hopefully his little friend Buchholz is not far behind him.

 

Well, since butch has 3 rehab starts scheduled and who knows when those will be, he wont be back until 15 days after the first rehab start. I hope he has one scheduled this month.

[Station 13]

Well, since butch has 3 rehab starts scheduled and who knows when those will be, he wont be back until 15 days after the first rehab start. I hope he has one scheduled this month.

 

Well if he hope to get his 3 rehab starts in he better do it by next week. The minor season is almost done.

[BigPapi]

Well if he hope to get his 3 rehab starts in he better do it by next week. The minor season is almost done.

 

Thats right, I completely forgot about that. Doesnt it end in early september?

[BigPapi]

So, the paw sox season ends the second of septemeber. So, we should probably see him back around septemebr 7th, if not earlier

[Thunder]

Well, a 1 game lead now. With a feeble line-up: Els not hitting; Napoli a K-machine; Holt and Snyder (who?); gomes (who gets the Youk award for being a self-proclaimed 'dirt-dog' and 'gamer' while hitting under .250); Drew (the usual). That line-up is threatening to look like the triple-A lineup we saw late last year. Not there, of course; just threatening.

 

Calm down. This team is still in first place. That's good for something, right? The Rays just had a long losing streak, and now we're in a tumble. I refuse to worry or panic until this team is 2 or more games out of first.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

The sox are hitting a rough patch at the wrong time. Their offense leads the charge and over the last few games, the O has fallen flat. If it wasn't for a bad error last night, you'd have been held to 1 run by a guy who couldn't shut down a little league lineup. Their O must pick up or they're done. The sox pitching isn't good enough to sustain winning

 

Yes it is, we just have been dead on offense. That's what gets the team going, offense.

[jung]

They could have enough pitching if they pitch to their peak potential. But you could say that about almost any group of decent pitchers in this league. If they get to the post season with the starting pitching where it is right now and not knowing where Buch is going to be...NO, IMO, they don't have enough "good" pitching.

 

Who do you trust right now.....Buch? Haven't seen him pitch since June 8. Peavy? Two good starts, one turkey so far.....the 1st option at present. Lackey? Seems to be fading a bit down the stretch here.....Lester? No idea what you are going to get from game to game. Felix? Now also having some rocky starts with the added issue of not having much experience in high pressure games.....Dempster? Fading of the regular season rotation....never mind post season.

 

I am reasonably confident that Peavy gives you a good post season game one. After that....no idea!

[Behindenemylines]

There is a difference between losing and getting blown out. Last nights game hopefully was the low point of this losing streak. The Sox sucked in all areas of the game: Starting pitching, defense, base running and with the bat. They were never in last nights game and were blown out. Everyone is taking about the Rays and are ignoring the $pankees. They play the Sox 9 more times, and most of their other remaining games are against AL East teams. If they go on one of those Dodger streaks they could catch everyone because they play so many games against these teams. Not making the playoffs is one thing, but if the $panks blow by us and make it that will be tough to take. What Reynolds did in his first AB last night is a bad sign.

[rjortiz]

There is a difference between losing and getting blown out. Last nights game hopefully was the low point of this losing streak. The Sox sucked in all areas of the game: Starting pitching, defense, base running and with the bat. They were never in last nights game and were blown out. Everyone is taking about the Rays and are ignoring the $pankees. They play the Sox 9 more times, and most of their other remaining games are against AL East teams. If they go on one of those Dodger streaks they could catch everyone because they play so many games against these teams. Not making the playoffs is one thing, but if the $panks blow by us and make it that will be tough to take. What Reynolds did in his first AB last night is a bad sign.

 

The only difference is that the Dodgers are good, and the Yankees aren't. The Yankees are too far back.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not ignoring the Spankees at all. As I've said a number of times, the f***ers are harder to get rid of than cockroaches. Soriano and Reynolds - Jesus Christ, how do they pull off this s***. The ironic thing about Soriano is that Cashman promptly came out and denounced the move, saying he was against it. f***ing Spanks.

[rjortiz]

I'm not ignoring the Spankees at all. As I've said a number of times, the f***ers are harder to get rid of than cockroaches. Soriano and Reynolds - Jesus Christ, how do they pull off this s***. The ironic thing about Soriano is that Cashman promptly came out and denounced the move, saying he was against it. f***ing Spanks.

 

Because Reynolds sucks, and Soriano is a ridiculously overpaid role player.

[a700hitter]

Because Reynolds sucks, and Soriano is a ridiculously overpaid role player.

Both Soriano and Reynolds will provide more punch than Gomes or Middlebrooks down the stretch and the Cubs are paying $17.7 million of the $25 million owed to Soriano. That is looking like a pretty sweet deal by Cashman.

[rjortiz]

Both Soriano and Reynolds will provide more punch than Gomes or Middlebrooks down the stretch and the Cubs are paying $17.7 million of the $25 million owed to Soriano. That is looking like a pretty sweet deal by Cashman.

 

Reynolds had an OPS of .678 with the Guardians, plus he's the worst defensive 3B in the game. Even if he somehow managed a .800 OPS, he'd give most of it back in the field. Also, I think they are counting on him to be the platoon partner with Overbay at 1B.

 

Soriano is definitely an upgrade over Vernon Wells, but I think we both would be too. They will pay him and Wells $10 million to form a underwhelming LF duo in 2014. He's been good since coming to the Yankees, but I don't think there's any chance he'll sustain it with his 3/22 BB:K ratio, and his season long .299 OBP.

 

They might be useful role players for the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't useful role players away from contending. They also have to deal with the luxury tax next year. I don't think flushing $10 million away on role players is the best way to get under that threshold.

Edited August 17, 2013 by rjortiz

[a700hitter]

Reynolds had an OPS of .678 with the Guardians, plus he's the worst defensive 3B in the game. Even if he somehow managed a .800 OPS, he'd give most of it back in the field. Also, I think they are counting on him to be the platoon partner with Overbay at 1B.

 

Soriano is definitely an upgrade over Vernon Wells, but I think we both would be too. They will pay him and Wells $10 million to form a underwhelming LF duo in 2014. He's been good since coming to the Yankees, but I don't think there's any chance he'll sustain it with his 3/22 BB:K ratio, and his season long .299 OBP.

 

They might be useful role players for the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't useful role players away from contending. They also have to deal with the luxury tax next year. I don't think flushing $10 million away on role players is the best way to get under that threshold.

I wouldn't be so sure. The Yankee offense was in a power outage before getting Soriano and Reynolds. Their HR total has spiked since the trading deadline.

[Orange Juiced]

Anyone who buries the Yankees at this point is borderline insane. I didn't like their chances 10 days ago, but they've started to get on a roll. They're going to be a factor, make no mistake about it people.

[SoxSport]

I wouldn't count anybody out in the AL East right now. Toronto maybe excepted. The Red Sox won't make the playoffs the way they are playing right now, so they will have to snap out of it and find a way to hit LHP. So far, no answers.

The braintrust has made no effort to improve their RHd hitting, except maybe Middlebrooks, who hasn't so far. Cashman, on the other hand, is coming up roses with Soriano and Reynolds--so far.

[rjortiz]

I wouldn't call going 12-14 since the break, and 7-7 in August a rejuvenation.

[Thunder]

I wouldn't call going 12-14 since the break, and 7-7 in August a rejuvenation.

 

It isn't, the goal is just to finish in 1st, and that's the case right now.