Can Mike Carp be the Sox full time 1B in 2014

[Spitball]

Yes, it does. Even Miguel Cabrera can't manage a BABIP of .409. He's coming back to earth.

 

I wish you would elaborate here. Cabrera's ability to hit line drives with power will improve his chances of a higher BAPIP. His .409 is not majorly out of line for a hitter of his ability.

[rjortiz]

I wish you would elaborate here. Cabrera's ability to hit line drives with power will improve his chances of a higher BAPIP. His .409 is not majorly out of line for a hitter of his ability.

 

Yeah, it would be an extreme outlier. Cabrera's career BABIP isn't even close to .409. Over the last 20 years, Derek Jeter is the leader with a .355 BABIP, and he was pretty fast in his prime. Mike Carp currently has a BABIP of .409 this year. He isn't fast, doesn't hit a lot of line drives, and could never be mistaken for Miguel Cabrera.

 

He has nowhere to go but down.

[sk7326]

BABIP seems to be a repeatable pitching skill more than a hitting one. There are pitchers who can deliver low BABIPs, but you need a few years worth of data to prove it isn't a fluke (that a guy really is that hard to square up).

 

For hitters there just is not a lot of control - although line drive rates can help. At the same time, so do ground ball rates (more likely to be base hits but obviously less potential for big damage). Let's put it this way - Seattle is an anemic offensive team and they basically sold Carp for a bag of baseballs. He has proven to be an excellent role player - you run the risk of making Brian Daubach sorts of mistakes by putting too much everyday significance into what he can do. I think he can be a lefty in a good to great platoon arrangement between LF-1B. But expecting much more is tough - even a switch hitter like Daniel Nava is functionally really only valuable against righties.

[Spitball]

I understand BABIP. I understand its use and its weaknesses. I just don't see using it as an argument over 162 plate appearances. Some statistics are reliable over that span, but not BABIP. It has its place but not in this discussion.

[rjortiz]

I understand BABIP. I understand its use and its weaknesses. I just don't see using it as an argument over 162 plate appearances. Some statistics are reliable over that span, but not BABIP. It has its place but not in this discussion.

 

Why? It tells us that Carp has had more than 40% of his balls in play fall in. It isn't a stretch to suggest that he won't be able to sustain that number over his next 162 PA's. Remember Iglesias' .441 BABIP earlier in the year? That sample size was 187 PA's, yet many people correctly predicted that he was going to fall to earth, because it's an unsustainable achievement.

[SCM33]

Why? It tells us that Carp has had more than 40% of his balls in play fall in. It isn't a stretch to suggest that he won't be able to sustain that number over his next 162 PA's. Remember Iglesias' .441 BABIP earlier in the year? That sample size was 187 PA's, yet many people correctly predicted that he was going to fall to earth, because it's an unsustainable achievement.

 

Stats were not needed to predict whether or not Iglesias would fall back to earth. All you had to do was look at his timid batting approach and watch the way the ball came off the bat. He looked like he was swinging a swimming pool "noodle".

[marklmw]

Stats were not needed to predict whether or not Iglesias would fall back to earth. All you had to do was look at his timid batting approach and watch the way the ball came off the bat. He looked like he was swinging a swimming pool "noodle".

 

Is the noodle dry or wet. The Sox did ok selling Inglesias at his high but the reality is that some teams (not many) can afford to have a slick fielding short stop with a slap happy .240 average.

There will not be any pitchers on the Tigers staff unhappy about having Inglesias standing over their right shoulder.

[SCM33]

Is the noodle dry or wet. The Sox did ok selling Inglesias at his high but the reality is that some teams (not many) can afford to have a slick fielding short stop with a slap happy .240 average.

There will not be any pitchers on the Tigers staff unhappy about having Inglesias standing over their right shoulder.

 

Except when the bases are loaded with 2 outs and Iglesias is coming up down by 2.

[SoxSport]

Carp is a nice bench player, who can play OF or 1B. That's his role. Plus he hits LHd. Not enough power at 1B for a regular role. And just an average defensive player, at best.

[SoxSport]

Except when the bases are loaded with 2 outs and Iglesias is coming up down by 2.

 

In which case he gets pinch hit for.

[marklmw]

Of course Carp is signed to a 1 year contract. Too bad.

[User Name]

Carp is under team control until 2017. What the hell are you talking about?

[Orange Juiced]

For the record, I want the Red Sox to go after the Cuban 1b, Abreu. I think he'll end up being a 35-40 hr masher from the right side of the plate, which would be just awesome for Boston.

 

Carp, though, is someone I definitely want to remain with Boston. He's under team control until 2017, so it won't be hard for them to keep him. And if they lose out on Abreu, I really think Carp can probably be a suitable 1b. Here are his career numbers:

 

vs. RHP: .264/.340/.451/.791, 579 ab, 22 hr, 26.3 ab/hr

vs. LHP: .292/.335/.455/.790, 154 ab, 5 hr, 30.8 ab/hr

 

So the numbers are pretty similar in OBP, SLG, OPS, and hr rate in either split. His career per-162 game average is: .270/.339/.452/.791, with 18 hr, 71 rbi in 481 ab.

 

So I think he could be a serviceable 1b if they lose out on Abreu. I'd rather have Abreu because, like I said, I think he will be a real mauler out there, but they could do worse than Carp, for sure.

[mvp 78]

He's a tremendous platoon guy. Why fix what isn't broken?

[sk7326]

Considering that Abreu is all speculation - I will refrain from discussing.

 

But the rest of the market - Ben (and Theo before) recognizes the virtue of platoon advantage. I don't think Carp is an everyday starter - but there is no doubt he can be part of a very effective platoon. His effectiveness cannot be separated from how Farrell has used him.

[Orange Juiced]

Considering that Abreu is all speculation - I will refrain from discussing.

 

But the rest of the market - Ben (and Theo before) recognizes the virtue of platoon advantage. I don't think Carp is an everyday starter - but there is no doubt he can be part of a very effective platoon. His effectiveness cannot be separated from how Farrell has used him.

 

He's an effective platoon player for sure. But his career splits are not even really splits - they're virtually identical numbers against either LHP or RHP, so that suggests he would be pretty good not just as a platoon player.

[sk7326]

He's an effective platoon player for sure. But his career splits are not even really splits - they're virtually identical numbers against either LHP or RHP, so that suggests he would be pretty good not just as a platoon player.

 

I think in this case, you have to look at the scouting outcomes and what managers have done in using him ... the splits are not conclusive, but he has so few PAs against lefties that I am not sure the numbers have a ton of utility. Basically Boston has gotten 6.2 fWAR from their LF/1B positions for what amounts to (more or less) Mike Napoli's salary. Has been a very effective deployment of resources.

[marklmw]

Carp is under team control until 2017. What the hell are you talking about?

 

Tricky Dick do you have to be a dick? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml

[marklmw]

For the record, I want the Red Sox to go after the Cuban 1b, Abreu. I think he'll end up being a 35-40 hr masher from the right side of the plate, which would be just awesome for Boston.

 

Carp, though, is someone I definitely want to remain with Boston. He's under team control until 2017, so it won't be hard for them to keep him. And if they lose out on Abreu, I really think Carp can probably be a suitable 1b. Here are his career numbers:

 

vs. RHP: .264/.340/.451/.791, 579 ab, 22 hr, 26.3 ab/hr

vs. LHP: .292/.335/.455/.790, 154 ab, 5 hr, 30.8 ab/hr

 

So the numbers are pretty similar in OBP, SLG, OPS, and hr rate in either split. His career per-162 game average is: .270/.339/.452/.791, with 18 hr, 71 rbi in 481 ab.

 

So I think he could be a serviceable 1b if they lose out on Abreu. I'd rather have Abreu because, like I said, I think he will be a real mauler out there, but they could do worse than Carp, for sure.

 

I agree that Abreu is the correct play especially since the Sox would be adding a tremendous player without given up players or draft picks to get him. Abreu is in his prime years and can be the guy to replace Ortiz's power from left side of plate. Most if not all the big spending teams already have 1st base taken care of. Other Cuban players that are succeeding in MLB have vouched for Abreu saying that he is the real deal. Carp is a good alternative for sure. One thing about Carp that is not being considered is that in fact he has matured as a player, he is in his prime years as a player, and to say that he could not put up the same numbers that he has produced this year if he played more is pure speculation. Carp's OPS is a close second to Ortiz.

[User Name]

Tricky Dick do you have to be a dick? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml

 

I have to be a dick if you're an idiot. He's arbitration elegible. You also just quoted a post that reinforces the notion that he's under team control for three more years, and the BB-REF link YOU posted has him as a FA in 2017. Read.

 

Please stop.

Edited September 12, 2013 by User Name?

[Dojji]

I have to be a dick if you're an idiot.

 

You know, I checked the federal state and local lawbooks and I never saw that written anywhere. Maybe I missed it?

 

You choose to be a dick when someone makes an ill-informed statement. you don't HAVE to be one at any time.

[User Name]

Have you seen the way you post? You shouldn't be one to throw stones when you actively post like a pompous blowhard on purpose. Mind your own business. And you haven't checked any lawbooks by the way.

[User Name]

Also, i don't see you jumping on a700's nuts when he's being a douche to other members of the board (all the time). So get off mine.

[Dojji]

let me put it this way: I don't see a700 being nearly as consistently eager to jump down someone's throat as you. every time I seem to notice you it's because you're in fill on pit bull attack mode. a700 is capable of carrying on a civil conversation. And when he does go to far I do call him on it, so you know where to put that argument.

[User Name]

This message is hidden because Dojji is on your ignore list.

 

And thus, happiness returns to User Name? land, with the three biggest jerks on the board now safely encapsulated in the ignore list. Good times.

Edited September 12, 2013 by User Name?

[Dojji]

Gotta love the notion of the ultimate ur-jerk on the forum using that moniker on anyone else who posts here.

[marklmw]

I have to be a dick if you're an idiot. He's arbitration elegible. You also just quoted a post that reinforces the notion that he's under team control for three more years, and the BB-REF link YOU posted has him as a FA in 2017. Read.

 

Please stop.

 

Your proper response to begin with is that Carp is under team control until 2017. Period ... and my response would have been ... Thank you for that information.

[User Name]

...or you could do your research before posting. Or you could just admit when you're wrong without being a jackass. Either works.

[Dojji]

Give it up, Mark, UN has two settings, "flame" and "more flame." He'd be an informative and interesting guy to have in the forum if he wasn't so one-dimensional

[marklmw]

Give it up, Mark, UN has two settings, "flame" and "more flame." He'd be an informative and interesting guy to have in the forum if he wasn't so one-dimensional

 

I suppose you are right at this one.