Sox starting pitching

[Behindenemylines]

Given that their rotation is so balanced, it probably depends on: (1) health, (2) matchups, and (3) who is in the best form at the time. Right now, we have no idea who that might be.

 

If the wild card game was tomorrow who would be the Sox starting pitcher?

[Thunder]

If the wild card game was tomorrow who would be the Sox starting pitcher?

 

Lester. He's pitching tomorrow.

[Behindenemylines]

Lester. He's pitching tomorrow.

 

I get it, Lester is pitching tomorrow. Ha! Ha! I guess the way I wanted to word it is if you had the choice of picking tomorrow's starter for a wild card game who would it be?

[Thunder]

I get it, Lester is pitching tomorrow. Ha! Ha! I guess the way I wanted to word it is if you had the choice of picking tomorrow's starter for a wild card game who would it be?

 

Lester, but Buchholz if he's the same guy when he returns.

[sk7326]

If the wild card game was tomorrow who would be the Sox starting pitcher?

 

In that case, most likely it will be whomever's turn it is - with all hands on deck. Won't have a chance to set the rotation.

[BigPapi]

Ik there is a lot of debate if the current standards of a quality start should be considered quality or not, but here is the percentage of starts that were considered quality by our starting rotation for those who have made 10 or more starts for the sox:

 

Jon Lester: 57.1% of his starts are considered quality

 

Jon Lackey: 70.8% of his starts

 

Felix Doubront: 66.7%

 

Ryan Dempster: 48%

 

Clay Buccholz: 83% ( He really only had one as one of the starts that did not qualify to be quality was after a rain delay where he threw 5 scoreless innings).

 

Anyways, i thought this would be interesting. Comments?

[Youk Of The Nation]

There is a thread called "Starting Pitching", started by you, less than five threads away from this one.

[BigPapi]

There is a thread called "Starting Pitching", started by you, less than five threads away from this one.

 

My bad. Delete this one .

[Behindenemylines]

SP has been the story since the $pankee series. Last night even Dempster pitched a good ballgame and had another quality start for the Sox. The Sox have been winning most of the games that they get 6 innings and the SP pitchers giving up 3 or less runs. I am a little concern with the bridge innings to Uehara. Tazawa has looked very hittable and has not been that effective. It probably would be more noticeable, but some starters have pitched 8 innings or complete games.

[Orange Juiced]

This season has been the anti-2010 for John Lackey.

 

2010: 4.40 era, 99 era+, 1.42 whip, 6.5 k/9, but got 14 wins (14-11 record)

2013: 3.19 era, 131 era+, 1.17 whip, 7.8 k/9, but only has 8 wins (8-11 record)

 

*Note, these numbers are not including today's game, where he went 7.1 ip, giving up just 8 baserunners and 3 er, which just ended in a loss for him, making him 8-12.

[User Name]

Which is a good piece of evidence against the "good pitchers find a way to win" nonsense. You can't win if your team doesn't score.

[Behindenemylines]

That is the sixth time this season the Sox have been shut out when Lackey was pitching. If the Sox where going to win this series this is a game that they needed to take. Fister hasn't been pitching that great of late and no Miggy in the lineup. Lester will have to bring his A game tomorrow.

[MJantomaso]

God Lackey has to be frustrated with the lack of run support he gets.

[rjortiz]

If he is, then he should remember that he won 14 games despite a historically bad ERA in 2011. Has anyone had a worse ERA in that many innings?

[SoxSport]

They do show signs of needing more hitting. But you look up and they are 2nd in the league in hitting. That has kept the FO from signing any hitters recently, while other contenders are scrambling for waiver pickups.

 

What is keeping them at the top is pitching. They have passed TB and NY the last couple of weeks and are now around 5th in AL pitching. And they'll get a boost when Buchholz comes back. They'll be tough if the pitching holds up, no matter how many runs they score.

[a700hitter]

God Lackey has to be frustrated with the lack of run support he gets.

It's uncanny. He has the worst luck with run support.

[rjortiz]

They do show signs of needing more hitting. But you look up and they are 2nd in the league in hitting. That has kept the FO from signing any hitters recently, while other contenders are scrambling for waiver pickups.

 

What is keeping them at the top is pitching. They have passed TB and NY the last couple of weeks and are now around 5th in AL pitching. And they'll get a boost when Buchholz comes back. They'll be tough if the pitching holds up, no matter how many runs they score.

 

I see you concede that the hitting ranks 2nd after ripping it in your last post. Anyway, our rotation looks solid. 5th in the AL in FIP, and if you dropped Dempster from consideration, those numbers look even better. The Tigers are clearly better here, so that is a little troubling. What really worries me is the bullpen. We rank 8th in the AL, and if you subtract Miller it gets worse. Not a lot of depth. Looks like the blueprint is to get 7 innings from our starters, so they can hand the ball to Tazawa and Uehara. Breslow and Thorton are probably OK from the left side, but what about righties? De la Rosa? Workman? Doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

[Orange Juiced]

I see you concede that the hitting ranks 2nd after ripping it in your last post. Anyway, our rotation looks solid. 5th in the AL in FIP, and if you dropped Dempster from consideration, those numbers look even better. The Tigers are clearly better here, so that is a little troubling. What really worries me is the bullpen. We rank 8th in the AL, and if you subtract Miller it gets worse. Not a lot of depth. Looks like the blueprint is to get 7 innings from our starters, so they can hand the ball to Tazawa and Uehara. Breslow and Thorton are probably OK from the left side, but what about righties? De la Rosa? Workman? Doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

 

Fortunately in the playoffs, the Sox should be able to get away with just 3 quality relievers in the bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow. Use Thornton and Workman in games where they're losing, but the other three in games where they're tied or winning. That's how Torre would handle the Yankees bullpen: Nelson, Stanton, and Rivera - he rode those guys all the time in the playoffs and it worked.

[SoxSport]

Fortunately in the playoffs, the Sox should be able to get away with just 3 quality relievers in the bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow. Use Thornton and Workman in games where they're losing, but the other three in games where they're tied or winning. That's how Torre would handle the Yankees bullpen: Nelson, Stanton, and Rivera - he rode those guys all the time in the playoffs and it worked.

 

The playoffs is about your top 3 starters and top 3 bullpen guys. You have a reliable top 3 and you go deep into the playoffs. They should give Tazawa a week off. Get him back to earlier form. If Buchholz comes back sharp, they have him, Peavy, Lackey and Lester. Pretty good starting 4.

[SoxSport]

They may rank 2nd in BA, but the hitting has a lot of holes below Ortiz. Fortunately, they've gotten some key hits from the low part of the order, and Drew has been hitting over .300 since the all-star break. Speed is also lacking in the lower part of the order, with Iggy gone. Bradley could really help in speed and defense, but he is mysteriously missing. His AAA numbers are similar to Bogaerts. The OF has holes when Vic gets hurt. I wouldn't want Nava, Carp and Gomes at the corners on a daily basis.

[Orange Juiced]

The playoffs is about your top 3 starters and top 3 bullpen guys. You have a reliable top 3 and you go deep into the playoffs. They should give Tazawa a week off. Get him back to earlier form. If Buchholz comes back sharp, they have him, Peavy, Lackey and Lester. Pretty good starting 4.

 

And just so people understand, here are the Sox' top 3 relievers:

 

Uehara: 61.1 ip, 1.17 era, 357 era+, 0.62 whip, 12.2 k/9

Tazawa: 60.2 ip, 2.67 era, 157 era+, 1.15 whip, 9.5 k/9

Breslow: 48.2 ip, 2.22 era, 189 era+, 1.17 whip, 4.8 k/9

 

It may not feel like a great 1-2-3 because I don't know how much confidence people have in Tazawa or Breslow, but it's as good a 1-2-3 bullpen punch as there is. Here are some others:

 

Tampa

Rodney: 55.2 ip, 3.72 era, 103 era+, 1.42 whip, 11.6 k/9

Torres: 48.0 ip, 1.31 era, 292 era+, 0.83 whip, 10.1 k/9

Peralta: 58.0 ip, 2.95 era, 130 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.3 k/9

 

Detroit

Benoit: 55.0 ip, 2.13 era, 199 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.8 k/9

Smyly: 69.0 ip, 2.22 era, 190 era+, 1.01 whip, 9.3 k/9

Rondon: 27.2 ip, 3.58 era, 119 era+, 1.41 whip, 8.8 k/9

 

Texas

Nathan: 53.2 ip, 1.51 era, 275 era+, 0.93 whip, 9.9 k/9

Scheppers: 60.2 ip, 2.08 era, 200 era+, 1.15 whip, 6.7 k/9

Cotts: 45.0 ip, 1.20 era, 346 era+, 1.00 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

Oakland

Balfour: 54.2 ip, 2.47 era, 152 era+, 1.17 whip, 10.0 k/9

Cook: 60.0 ip, 2.10 era, 178 era+, 1.13 whip, 8.7 k/9

Doolittle: 58.0 ip, 3.57 era, 105 era+, 1.03 whip, 7.6 k/9

 

I'd say that the Sox' top 3 stack up pretty well with these other contenders' top 3. Texas' might be better than Boston's, but I think Boston's is better than anyone else's amongst this group.

[sk7326]

I think fans are always conditioned to be skeptical of their own guys. It feels like other teams have better staff, but the reality might be distorted. Oakland's numbers are good, but you do have to normalize for a VERY pitching friendly context ...

 

Tazawa leaves the ball up in the zone at times (especially oddly enough against Toronto) - which is dangerous in a high leverage situation - but overall has been quite good. Breslow, Koji have been good and honestly, Workman and Thornton for "other guys" in the bullpen are pretty good. What do you want out of your relievers late - pound the strike zone and get some swing and miss. Our top guys have done that (except for Breslow, though he has done it before, and his control has helped compensate some).

[User Name]

They may rank 2nd in BA, but the hitting has a lot of holes below Ortiz. Fortunately, they've gotten some key hits from the low part of the order, and Drew has been hitting over .300 since the all-star break. Speed is also lacking in the lower part of the order, with Iggy gone. Bradley could really help in speed and defense, but he is mysteriously missing. His AAA numbers are similar to Bogaerts. The OF has holes when Vic gets hurt. I wouldn't want Nava, Carp and Gomes at the corners on a daily basis.

 

This is nonsense. The Sox are also among the league leaders in OBP, XBH and stolen bases. When your approach works and your lineup is clicking, you don't change things up to make room for a kid because he can run. Please stop.

[rjortiz]

They may rank 2nd in BA, but the hitting has a lot of holes below Ortiz. Fortunately, they've gotten some key hits from the low part of the order, and Drew has been hitting over .300 since the all-star break. Speed is also lacking in the lower part of the order, with Iggy gone. Bradley could really help in speed and defense, but he is mysteriously missing. His AAA numbers are similar to Bogaerts. The OF has holes when Vic gets hurt. I wouldn't want Nava, Carp and Gomes at the corners on a daily basis.

 

2nd in runs, and what is your definition of hole?

[sk7326]

They may rank 2nd in BA, but the hitting has a lot of holes below Ortiz. Fortunately, they've gotten some key hits from the low part of the order, and Drew has been hitting over .300 since the all-star break. Speed is also lacking in the lower part of the order, with Iggy gone. Bradley could really help in speed and defense, but he is mysteriously missing. His AAA numbers are similar to Bogaerts. The OF has holes when Vic gets hurt. I wouldn't want Nava, Carp and Gomes at the corners on a daily basis.

 

Well similar numbers but a 20 year old who conquered 2 levels while there are distinctly job openings at those positions (SS/3B) with the big club is different than a 23 year old who is being blocked by the team's best performing position player. Also, 2nd in runs, 2nd in OBP. More speed would be nice, but first base is the hardest base to nab and the Sox do it better than just about everybody. They will be fine. If Vic goes down, there is trouble long term, but they have the depth to fake it and to win a title that might be all you need.

[rjortiz]

Fortunately in the playoffs, the Sox should be able to get away with just 3 quality relievers in the bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow. Use Thornton and Workman in games where they're losing, but the other three in games where they're tied or winning. That's how Torre would handle the Yankees bullpen: Nelson, Stanton, and Rivera - he rode those guys all the time in the playoffs and it worked.

 

The playoffs is about your top 3 starters and top 3 bullpen guys. You have a reliable top 3 and you go deep into the playoffs. They should give Tazawa a week off. Get him back to earlier form. If Buchholz comes back sharp, they have him, Peavy, Lackey and Lester. Pretty good starting 4.

 

And just so people understand, here are the Sox' top 3 relievers:

 

Uehara: 61.1 ip, 1.17 era, 357 era+, 0.62 whip, 12.2 k/9

Tazawa: 60.2 ip, 2.67 era, 157 era+, 1.15 whip, 9.5 k/9

Breslow: 48.2 ip, 2.22 era, 189 era+, 1.17 whip, 4.8 k/9

 

It may not feel like a great 1-2-3 because I don't know how much confidence people have in Tazawa or Breslow, but it's as good a 1-2-3 bullpen punch as there is. Here are some others:

 

Tampa

Rodney: 55.2 ip, 3.72 era, 103 era+, 1.42 whip, 11.6 k/9

Torres: 48.0 ip, 1.31 era, 292 era+, 0.83 whip, 10.1 k/9

Peralta: 58.0 ip, 2.95 era, 130 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.3 k/9

 

Detroit

Benoit: 55.0 ip, 2.13 era, 199 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.8 k/9

Smyly: 69.0 ip, 2.22 era, 190 era+, 1.01 whip, 9.3 k/9

Rondon: 27.2 ip, 3.58 era, 119 era+, 1.41 whip, 8.8 k/9

 

Texas

Nathan: 53.2 ip, 1.51 era, 275 era+, 0.93 whip, 9.9 k/9

Scheppers: 60.2 ip, 2.08 era, 200 era+, 1.15 whip, 6.7 k/9

Cotts: 45.0 ip, 1.20 era, 346 era+, 1.00 whip, 10.6 k/9

 

Oakland

Balfour: 54.2 ip, 2.47 era, 152 era+, 1.17 whip, 10.0 k/9

Cook: 60.0 ip, 2.10 era, 178 era+, 1.13 whip, 8.7 k/9

Doolittle: 58.0 ip, 3.57 era, 105 era+, 1.03 whip, 7.6 k/9

 

I'd say that the Sox' top 3 stack up pretty well with these other contenders' top 3. Texas' might be better than Boston's, but I think Boston's is better than anyone else's amongst this group.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Breslow. I don't like that he isn't missing bats, and I don't like that his FIP is 3.70. Looking at the probable bullpen in October, Britton and Thorton have shown promise. Although, I'm skeptical they can do it over multiple batters.

 

I did mention that the Red Sox blueprint is to have the starters go 6-7, and get the ball to Tazawa and Uehara. Should the starters falter, we'll be using some pretty suspect options. With the exception of Tigers, I think we are at a disadvantage if the game turns into a bullpen war.

'

[sk7326]

I'm not a huge fan of Breslow. I don't like that he isn't missing bats, and I don't like that his FIP is 3.70. Looking at the probable bullpen in October, Britton and Thorton have shown promise. Although, I'm skeptical they can do it over multiple batters.

 

I did mention that the Red Sox blueprint is to have the starters go 6-7, and get the ball to Tazawa and Uehara. Should the starters falter, we'll be using some pretty suspect options. With the exception of Tigers, I think we are at a disadvantage if the game turns into a bullpen war.

'

 

I do think most of these teams are in rough shape if you can get the starter out in 5 innings or less ... that said the postseason you'd expect Dempster to be a swing guy, and from his last outings - while he has struggled turning a lineup over two or three times, often he has been pretty good the first time around. And he misses bats regularly and will be throwing more like 93 than 90 in a bullpen gig. The bridge to Koji is pretty strong - although Breslow is the weakest link there. But Workman as a multi inning guy is not bad at all, and Thornton has been solid as a matchup guy.

[Orange Juiced]

Lester last 6 starts: 42.0 ip, 1.71 era, 1.09 whip, 6.2 k/9, .567 ops

 

Last night, his fastball velocity sat between 93-96, and he had great movement.

 

Dude is dominating lately. Good to see.

[sk7326]

Last night was Lester's best start of the year - he has given up fewer hits and gone the distance ... but that was easily the best stuff he has had all season. The cutter's effectiveness and his feel for the pitch is the stuff that made him a Top 12 or so pitcher in his best years ... last night was the first time it REALLY looked good. The K-rate, even in the starts before tonight, is not what you want to see from him - but last night was definitely progress. Struck out 9 of the 30 batters he faced (30%) ... he was over 25% in his two best seasons, and had gone below 20% since 2012. (K-% is a little more useful here than K/9, just because it accounts for the guys who get hits or walks who should count against your K-total).

[Orange Juiced]

Impressive performance by Clay last night. Assuming he pitches well the rest of the season, it sets the Sox up with the best 1-4 I can remember them ever having for a playoff run:

 

Buchholz (would be a CYA candidate had he stayed healthy)

Lester (been dominant since the ASB)

Lackey (a couple of speed bumps lately, but he's been terrific all season)

Peavy (been great since joining the Sox)

 

I don't know what order they'd want them in, but man, it means that every game out there, the Sox would have a good chance of winning. Don't forget, in the past week they've beaten last year's CYA winner (Price), and this year's presumptive CYA winner (Scherzer). Even if the Sox don't have a CYA candidate, they have a team capable of out-hitting or out-pitching the opposition.