The future value of John Lackey

[Orange Juiced]

In the offseason between the 2009 and 2010 season, the Red Sox signed John Lackey, fresh off an 11-8, 3.83 season with LA, to a 5-year, $80.4 million contract. That's an average of $16.08 million per season. Though they really needed starting pitching, this seemed a bit steep at the time, though free agent starting pitching is always very expensive.

 

In 2010 he was not horrible, but he wasn't what we expected: 14-11, 4.40 era, but he was a horse, pitching 215 innings, so there was some value there. Underperformed given that he was paid $18.7 million in 2010, but oh well.

 

Then 2011 happened. He put up this line: 160.0 ip, 12-12, 6.41 era, and was one of the worst starting pitchers in franchise history. And the Sox were staring at 3 more seasons at greater than $15 million per season. It looked like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball. Heck, it didn't just look like it...it WAS.

 

TJ surgery wiped out 2012, but hey, at least the Sox were one year closer to being rid of that horrible contract. It also kicked in a Sox option for 2015 for just $500,000, should they desire to keep him for that season.

 

And now in 2013, the revelation. 7-7, 2.95 era, 1.16 whip, 8.4 k/9, velocity is up, walks are way down, he's basically dominating games at this point. Easily pitching like a true #1. Since May 19, his line is: 80.0 ip, 2.59 era, 1.06 whip, 8.2 k/9. Dude is dealing.

 

And thanks to that TJ surgery, it means that the Sox will have Lackey under contract for two more seasons if they desire, at a grand total of $15.750 million. That averages out to just $7.9 million a year. The thought of Lackey being a #1 or even a #2 caliber pitcher at that money is very nice; even more so given that he would be making just $500k in 2015.

 

I do not see him pitching to sub-3.00 eras the rest of his time with Boston. But I do see him being basically what he was with the Angels - an innings-eater that gives you a solid mid-3's era, which is worth a TON. And they'd have him for a reasonable rate in 2014 and a ridiculous discount in 2015.

 

And I wonder how much value that has for the Sox...not just if they keep him, but also if they decided to trade him at some point. (not this year, obviously)

[a700hitter]

In the offseason between the 2009 and 2010 season, the Red Sox signed John Lackey, fresh off an 11-8, 3.83 season with LA, to a 5-year, $80.4 million contract. That's an average of $16.08 million per season. Though they really needed starting pitching, this seemed a bit steep at the time, though free agent starting pitching is always very expensive.

 

In 2010 he was not horrible, but he wasn't what we expected: 14-11, 4.40 era, but he was a horse, pitching 215 innings, so there was some value there. Underperformed given that he was paid $18.7 million in 2010, but oh well.

 

Then 2011 happened. He put up this line: 160.0 ip, 12-12, 6.41 era, and was one of the worst starting pitchers in franchise history. And the Sox were staring at 3 more seasons at greater than $15 million per season. It looked like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball. Heck, it didn't just look like it...it WAS.

 

TJ surgery wiped out 2012, but hey, at least the Sox were one year closer to being rid of that horrible contract. It also kicked in a Sox option for 2015 for just $500,000, should they desire to keep him for that season.

 

And now in 2013, the revelation. 7-7, 2.95 era, 1.16 whip, 8.4 k/9, velocity is up, walks are way down, he's basically dominating games at this point. Easily pitching like a true #1. Since May 19, his line is: 80.0 ip, 2.59 era, 1.06 whip, 8.2 k/9. Dude is dealing.

 

And thanks to that TJ surgery, it means that the Sox will have Lackey under contract for two more seasons if they desire, at a grand total of $15.750 million. That averages out to just $7.9 million a year. The thought of Lackey being a #1 or even a #2 caliber pitcher at that money is very nice; even more so given that he would be making just $500k in 2015.

 

I do not see him pitching to sub-3.00 eras the rest of his time with Boston. But I do see him being basically what he was with the Angels - an innings-eater that gives you a solid mid-3's era, which is worth a TON. And they'd have him for a reasonable rate in 2014 and a ridiculous discount in 2015.

 

And I wonder how much value that has for the Sox...not just if they keep him, but also if they decided to trade him at some point. (not this year, obviously)

I don't think you look to trade a cheap experienced pitcher who is pitching like he did in his prime and who is a proven winner. Lester will be the guy leaving if he doesn't straighten himself out.

 

Also, I would consider trading Buch if he can ever put up 200 innings and look like an ace. I don't think he can do that even once, certainly not more than once.

[Orange Juiced]

I don't think you look to trade a cheap experienced pitcher who is pitching like he did in his prime and who is a proven winner. Lester will be the guy leaving if he doesn't straighten himself out.

 

Also, I would consider trading Buch if he can ever put up 200 innings and look like an ace. I don't think he can do that even once, certainly not more than once.

 

Yah I'm not necessarily suggesting that they're looking to trade Lackey. But my goodness, four months ago if I told you the Sox could get something pretty valuable for him, you, me, and every Sox fan on earth would have taken that, no questions asked.

 

Dealing Buchholz is interesting. I'd have to think about what he might fetch. Clearly, he's a great pitcher. Just can't stay on the field. But über-talented and pretty young and cheap. He'd still likely bring back something good.

[a700hitter]

Yah I'm not necessarily suggesting that they're looking to trade Lackey. But my goodness, four months ago if I told you the Sox could get something pretty valuable for him, you, me, and every Sox fan on earth would have taken that, no questions asked.

 

Dealing Buchholz is interesting. I'd have to think about what he might fetch. Clearly, he's a great pitcher. Just can't stay on the field. But über-talented and pretty young and cheap. He'd still likely bring back something good.

People would have lined up around Fenway this past offseason to offer to drive Lackey to the airport to get out of town.

[Orange Juiced]

People would have lined up around Fenway this past offseason to offer to drive Lackey to the airport to get out of town.

 

LOL absolutely. So now that he's pitching well and they could actually get something good for him, we don't want that to happen?

 

It kind of illustrates the problem...when our guys are going bad we want to trade them, but who would want them? Them when they are going good enough to fetch something valuable we don't want to trade them.

 

If only people would take our trash and give us their treasure.

[BSN07]

People would have lined up around Fenway this past offseason to offer to drive Lackey to the airport to get out of town.

 

I routinely offered to take shifts waiting outside his house to help carry his bags

 

I think you have to consider trading Lackey. His value is likely never to be higher. And it's likely he isn't able to continue this pace(nothing against him, just with age and all). I think they should shop him and Lester. That would leave solid building blocks with Buchholz and Doobey and a innings eating veteran in Dempster. The Sox could look to bring in an Ace(no idea who but with the return prospects from a Lackey and Lester trades the Sox would have prospects galore). Or could look to fill from within. Whichever it may be it's an interesting scenario we will all sure be discussing in the off season.

[italstallianion]

I'd listen to offers for anyone. I wouldn't look to trade everyone, but I'd at least field offers.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL absolutely. So now that he's pitching well and they could actually get something good for him, we don't want that to happen?

 

It kind of illustrates the problem...when our guys are going bad we want to trade them, but who would want them? Them when they are going good enough to fetch something valuable we don't want to trade them.

 

If only people would take our trash and give us their treasure.

 

When you're thinking about trades you have to figure out what team or teams you would match up with and what trade would seem to make sense for both teams. It's not too often you're going to trade Slocumb for Varitek and Lowe.

[Orange Juiced]

When you're thinking about trades you have to figure out what team or teams you would match up with and what trade would seem to make sense for both teams. It's not too often you're going to trade Slocumb for Varitek and Lowe.

 

Right. No question. But if Lackey finishes this season strong, he'll be worth an awful lot to a team with even semi-serious playoff aspirations in 2014-15.

[Bellhorn04]

Right. No question. But if Lackey finishes this season strong, he'll be worth an awful lot to a team with even semi-serious playoff aspirations in 2014-15.

 

Agreed. I just find it hard to see a scenario where we would trade Lackey and get a better pitcher in return, unless it was a 3-team trade.

[jung]

You should not be obsessing over a guy leaving and doing well elsewhere. It is about having an excess in one place and a hole somewhere else. Can I move my excess to fill my hole.

 

Unfortunately, the Sox hole is pitching. So, even if Lackey is a trade chip, I don't see Lackey traded this year. You just cannot even take yourself seriously as a team without good pitching. The lack of it may well be the monkey wrench in this Sox season.

[BSN07]

Agreed. I just find it hard to see a scenario where we would trade Lackey and get a better pitcher in return, unless it was a 3-team trade.

 

It's hard to see a scenario where they aqcuire more top prospect talent, add it to there already impressive group, and go try and make a deal for a SP better then Lackey? time to get the ol eyes checked haha

[BSN07]

You should not be obsessing over a guy leaving and doing well elsewhere. It is about having an excess in one place and a hole somewhere else. Can I move my excess to fill my hole.

 

Unfortunately, the Sox hole is pitching. So, even if Lackey is a trade chip, I don't see Lackey traded this year. You just cannot even take yourself seriously as a team without good pitching. The lack of it may well be the monkey wrench in this Sox season.

 

That was funny

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to see a scenario where they aqcuire more top prospect talent, add it to there already impressive group, and go try and make a deal for a SP better then Lackey? time to get the ol eyes checked haha

 

Ok, but that's a series of trades...I just meant one trade. You're thinking about a real BLOCKBUSTER.

[Palodios]

I've said this before, but Lackey is coming into a different world this season. Offenses around the league have been plummeting, and Lackey shows up three years later with a new arm and prime velocity. What do you think is going to happen? This is Lackey in his prime, but without roids hitting the ball with authority. If his arm holds up, He may decline a little, but at absolute worst he'll give vintage Mark Buerhle results, which were worth 16 million a year.

[Orange Juiced]

Agreed. I just find it hard to see a scenario where we would trade Lackey and get a better pitcher in return, unless it was a 3-team trade.

 

You look to a team with a lot of young, up-and-coming but not quite ready for prime time, starting pitching. Think Atlanta and Arizona, for example. Both could afford Lackey, and both have some terrific young starting pitching.

[jung]

That was funny

 

I figured somebody would get on to that one.

[Bellhorn04]

You look to a team with a lot of young, up-and-coming but not quite ready for prime time, starting pitching. Think Atlanta and Arizona, for example. Both could afford Lackey, and both have some terrific young starting pitching.

 

That's a possibility. Personally I don't think we are in a position where we can give up a proven starter for an unproven one. We only have a handful of proven starters and we are amassing some young pitching of our own.

[Orange Juiced]

That's a possibility. Personally I don't think we are in a position where we can give up a proven starter for an unproven one. We only have a handful of proven starters and we are amassing some young pitching of our own.

 

Right. Lots of good reasons to keep Lackey. But again, since 2010, we'd all have driven the guy to the airport if we knew we could unload him and get something nice in return. And now, I cannot imagine his value will ever be higher. He's pitching lights-out, he's still young enough, he won't be making a ton, and he has championship experience. I would think the Sox could get a lot for him at this point.

 

But right now, the Sox have a chance to win it all, so yeah, you probably keep him. But in the offseason? Might be a different story.

[lospunchados]

Lest er would get us very little for prospects in a trade now or even in the off-season, because if he pitches really well in the second half they wont trade him if he doesn't they won't get anything for him ( they also have to sign his club extension in the off season for about 15 mil or release him). If they wanted to trade him they should have made the trade last off-season when the braves were willing to give up Julio Teheran and a low level prospect or two for him.

 

Trading Lackey would be insane now or in the off-season. I can't see anyteam giving up multiple high end prospects for someone coming off a major arm surgery, and if you don't get that for him trading him is stupid. Why would you trade a guy that reasonably could have a 3.40-4.00 era who will average out making 8.25 million?

[BSN07]

Lest er would get us very little for prospects in a trade now or even in the off-season, because if he pitches really well in the second half they wont trade him if he doesn't they won't get anything for him ( they also have to sign his club extension in the off season for about 15 mil or release him). If they wanted to trade him they should have made the trade last off-season when the braves were willing to give up Julio Teheran and a low level prospect or two for him.

 

Trading Lackey would be insane now or in the off-season. I can't see anyteam giving up multiple high end prospects for someone coming off a major arm surgery, and if you don't get that for him trading him is stupid. Why would you trade a guy that reasonably could have a 3.40-4.00 era who will average out making 8.25 million?

 

If he pitches well the rest of the year they could certainly shop him still. He has shown enough inconsistency that giving him a long term extension is questionable.

[a700hitter]

If he turns it around, they probably extend him. If he continues to stink, we will not get much for him.

[Orange Juiced]

Lest er would get us very little for prospects in a trade now or even in the off-season, because if he pitches really well in the second half they wont trade him if he doesn't they won't get anything for him ( they also have to sign his club extension in the off season for about 15 mil or release him). If they wanted to trade him they should have made the trade last off-season when the braves were willing to give up Julio Teheran and a low level prospect or two for him.

 

Trading Lackey would be insane now or in the off-season. I can't see anyteam giving up multiple high end prospects for someone coming off a major arm surgery, and if you don't get that for him trading him is stupid. Why would you trade a guy that reasonably could have a 3.40-4.00 era who will average out making 8.25 million?

 

The very reasons you say the Sox should hold on to him are the very reasons why someone would give up a pretty nice package to acquire him.

[BSN07]

If he turns it around, they probably extend him. If he continues to stink, we will not get much for him.

 

idk, I'd say it's an even 50/50 shot they trade him or extend him if he finishes strong. if someone offered a Shields type deal for him this off season it would be hard to pass up.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is yr 4 of Lackey's contract. But because of last season, the sox now have a league minimum option for his 6th year. You've got him for what amount to $16 mil over the next 2 seasons (2014-15). If he produces at this level for those yrs, he'll be a f***ing steal.

[mvp 78]

I don't see the point in ever trading a starting pitcher that is destroying his competition. I'd rather have 2.5 more years of a very good Lackey than a hit or miss prospect.

[a700hitter]

idk, I'd say it's an even 50/50 shot they trade him or extend him if he finishes strong. if someone offered a Shields type deal for him this off season it would be hard to pass up.

But Shields is still really good.

[lospunchados]

I really don't think we would get enough value back in prospects or major league talent to warrant trading him. he is due to make an average 8 million per year. If some team wants to offer us two top 100 prospects like the jays got for Dickey , sure maybe then you take a shot, but i highly doubt that will happen. You also have to look this off season on teams it would make sense to do this deal and how stocked there farm system is. You can't trade him to the AL east. Most of the teams that dominate the top prospect rankings don't make sense to deal for him ( Marlins,Twins and the Redsox ).

 

Remember what we gave up for Schilling, not much at all and Lackey isn't nearly the caliber of pitcher Schilling was.

[User Name]

Why do people wanna trade basically everyone all the time? Lackey's a lot more valuable to the Sox than any other team.

[BSN07]

I really don't think we would get enough value back in prospects or major league talent to warrant trading him. he is due to make an average 8 million per year. If some team wants to offer us two top 100 prospects like the jays got for Dickey , sure maybe then you take a shot, but i highly doubt that will happen. You also have to look this off season on teams it would make sense to do this deal and how stocked there farm system is. You can't trade him to the AL east. Most of the teams that dominate the top prospect rankings don't make sense to deal for him ( Marlins,Twins and the Redsox ).

 

Remember what we gave up for Schilling, not much at all and Lackey isn't nearly the caliber of pitcher Schilling was.

 

Dude it's whole decade later. Look at what teams are giving up for guys like Dickey(36 year old knuckler) and Garza(injury history, mid rotation SP and no control beyond this season). You could probably argue Lackey is better then both. We aren't saying deal him for a bag of balls, but it's not too hard to see if he pitches to a sub 3 ERA for the season the Sox might be able to get a couple top 10 guys from a team on the cusp of contention. And if that is the case the Sox need to really consider making the trade. Lackey has been the nuts this year, I just see it as more likely he regress's back a bit instead of keeping up a sub 3 ERA for the rest of his contract.