The future value of John Lackey

[lospunchados]

And if anything now people are more reluctant to trade prospects. If we wanted to get the most prospects for Lackey they would deal him now as he would be the best available arm. The Jays gave up a lot because hockey season was potentially going to be cancelled and there was a wide open AL east, with many perceiving that the Orioles couldn't do it again, the Redsox and Yankees weren't as strong as they normally are and the Rays would be good but traded away there second best pitcher in the off season. They blew up there Farm system to try and contend this year. So to trade Lackey in the off season you need a team with a stacked farm system and close to contending or already contending and need one pitcher to put them over the top. The Jays could give up d'Arnaud as he has a big injury history and was blocked at the major league level, as they viewed Arencibia as a good enough catcher for the future so d'Arnaud was worth a lot to someone else not as much to them. They viewed Sanchez as the best of there three young pitchers so Syndergaard was traded instead.

 

If you can get a blow you away offer like the Shields deal or close to the Dickey deal you have to look at it but both of those deals involved at least one top ten prospect coming back. If you look at midseason rankings the only team that is close enough for that deal to make sense is at 15 with the Tigers and Nick Castellanos, so Castellanos and another prospect from the tigers is probably the best you could get.

 

Saying that dickey is a 36 year old knuckleballer, true but he had a three year average from 2010-2012 of 2.95 era 1.15 whip 156k's 205 ip. A lot better numbers than Lackey's over a three year stretch. No one expected Dickey to have a sub three era switching from the NL east to the AL east but a mid three seemed reasonable to expect.

[SoxSport]

Lackey is their best pitcher right now. Good for him. The anti-Buchholz. The guy pitched hurt for 2 years, and nobody knew.

[Orange Juiced]

Try this scenario: Lackey finishes the year with 15 wins and a 3.05 era. Just superb. Those 2014 and 2015 years look awesome to a contender that needs a really good veteran starter, doesn't want to spend a ton of money, and has good prospects to deal.

 

Enter: the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

1. They are very much a contender in the NL West. Right now they are just 1/2 game back, and there's no reason to think they won't be a contender next year.

 

2. Their payroll is 17th in MLB at about $90 million. So they can afford to take on an $8 million pitcher (AAV), but not a $15 million pitcher.

 

3. Their starting rotation is as follows:

 

- Ian Kennedy: 114.0 ip, 3-7, 5.29 era, 1.39 whip

- Trevor Cahill: 96.2 ip, 3-10, 4.66 era, 1.41 whip

- Wade Miley: 120.2 ip, 6-8, 4.03 era, 1.38 whip

- Patrick Corbin: 130.1 ip, 11-1, 2.35 era, 1.00 whip

- Brandon McCarthy: 66.2 ip, 2-4, 5.00 era, 1.43 whip

- Randall Delgado: 44.2 ip, 2-3, 3.43 era, 1.43 whip

- Tyler Skaggs: 35.0 ip, 2-2, 4.11 era, 1.29 whip

 

Cahill and Kennedy have both been very disappointing this season. But they're both pretty good pitchers.

 

Career #s:

- Cahill: 3.96 era, 1.32 whip

- Kennedy: 3.98 era, 1.26 whip

 

They also have a very intriguing pitching prospect named Archie Bradley. Excellent prospect (ranked #21 in MLB). Throws in the mid-90s with great sinking action. Minor league numbers this year so far: 8-4, 1.95 era, 1.20 whip, 10.0 k/9.

 

So you deal Lackey and a couple of prospects (Brentz and Middlebrooks?) and get two pitchers in return: Bradley and either Cahill or Kennedy, whichever Arizona prefers to give up. Cahill is younger and is locked up for longer, but is also more expensive than Kennedy. I'd take either one.

 

The key is Bradley, who appears to be a stud in the making. But he's a year or two away most likely. In the meanwhile, Cahill or Kennedy fills the gap. It's entirely possible that either of those guys would put up similar numbers to what Lackey might down the road. But right now, Lackey is cheaper than either Cahill, and he's better than either one by a sizeable margin.

 

Arizona gets immediately better in their rotation and adds some positional help in the prospects they get. The Sox get a solid veteran pitcher (they're buying low) to plug the gap for a couple of years, and then when he's ready, add a potential #1 stud in Bradley to the rotation.

[lospunchados]

They would never do that deal. Bradley is an untouchable for them. In almost every mid season prospect re ranking he is the number one pitching prospect in baseball.he is generally ranked from number 6-10. Its not like the Diamondbacks view him as a few years down the road, he will be in there rotation next year. If Bradley was in A ball or high A it might work as he would would be farther away from contributing.

 

Then getting back two pitchers in your deal we would crowd the rotation with more arms blocking a chance to see what Rubby or someone else could do. The two pitchers in the majors both have a minimum two years left on there contract.

 

I'll tell you what though if we can get Bradley and someone else for Lackey, middlebrooks and some mid level prospect sure i'll do it.

 

The reason i listed Castellanos is because almost every team that would need something already has someone they view as a next year ready top pitching prospect.

[Orange Juiced]

They would never do that deal. Bradley is an untouchable for them. In almost every mid season prospect re ranking he is the number one pitching prospect in baseball.he is generally ranked from number 6-10. Its not like the Diamondbacks view him as a few years down the road, he will be in there rotation next year. If Bradley was in A ball or high A it might work as he would would be farther away from contributing.

 

Then getting back two pitchers in your deal we would crowd the rotation with more arms blocking a chance to see what Rubby or someone else could do. The two pitchers in the majors both have a minimum two years left on there contract.

 

I'll tell you what though if we can get Bradley and someone else for Lackey, middlebrooks and some mid level prospect sure i'll do it.

 

The reason i listed Castellanos is because almost every team that would need something already has someone they view as a next year ready top pitching prospect.

 

I'd do essentially the same deal, but with Randall Delgado instead of Bradley.

[User Name]

Your proposed deals make very little sense for the D'Backs. They have a lot of up-and-coming SP and OF depth in the minors. Also, you're assuming other teams don't know the deal with Lackey. He's pitching great, but he's post-op and getting up there in years. That diminishes his value. I don't understand the mental masturbation with trading him either way.

[italstallianion]

Exactly, because if he has a high trade value with other teams, that means he's likely doing well for us, and if he's doing well for us then why trade him? Even if we have 6 amazing starters so that we can trade Lackey, a team would never give us the best package for Lackey, so once again it wouldn't make sense to move him.

 

The only way it makes sense to trade Lackey for prospects is if you have an opposing GM that's completely retarded, which I find increasingly rare as the years go on.

[Standing Room]

Why would we trade a relatively cheap front of the rotation starter? That doesn't make any sense unless we're rebuilding.

[User Name]

Because everyone needs to be traded all the time, just like in fantasy baseball.

[lospunchados]

Exactly, because if he has a high trade value with other teams, that means he's likely doing well for us, and if he's doing well for us then why trade him? Even if we have 6 amazing starters so that we can trade Lackey, a team would never give us the best package for Lackey, so once again it wouldn't make sense to move him.

 

The only way it makes sense to trade Lackey for prospects is if you have an opposing GM that's completely retarded, which I find increasingly rare as the years go on.

 

This is exactly what i've been saying. If someone wants to be stupid and overpay for him by a lot that is the only way Ben is trading him.

[Orange Juiced]

You guys need to make up your minds: Is Lackey now a terrific pitcher that represents outstanding value? Or is he a person that represents a major health risk, having just come off TJ surgery at his age, and therefore isn't worth that much?

 

It can't be both.

[User Name]

No we don't. Because he is both. He's having terrific results, but his health history diminishes his value.

 

Can't exactly the same thing be said about Clay Buchholz? Terrific stuff, great results, fragile as glass.

[SoxSport]

Terrific right now, even more terrific next year when he will be playing for almost nothing.

He's their best, most consistent starter.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys need to make up your minds: Is Lackey now a terrific pitcher that represents outstanding value? Or is he a person that represents a major health risk, having just come off TJ surgery at his age, and therefore isn't worth that much?

 

It can't be both.

 

He now represents potentially outstanding value to us in the short term. But for another team there's too much uncertainty and too little long term potential to give up much to acquire him.

[lospunchados]

He now represents potentially outstanding value to us in the short term. But for another team there's too much uncertainty and too little long term potential to give up much to acquire him.

 

exactly

[BSN07]

He now represents potentially outstanding value to us in the short term. But for another team there's too much uncertainty and too little long term potential to give up much to acquire him.

 

Long term potential? He signed for 2 more years after this year. It's not a long term move if you acquire Lackey, it's a "win now" move. The Rangers just dumped 4 prospects and a PTBNL or possibly 2 depending on who the Cubs select for a 2 month rental. The Jays gave up a top catching prospect and like what 3 other prospects for Dickey.

 

The SP market this year in FA isn't too deep from what I recall(could be wrong). If the Sox make Lackey available he could be the best SP out there in the off season, which last season landed the Rays Will Myers and a few other high potential guys.

[User Name]

Both Dickey and Shields had a history of at least two years of prior excellence and a clean bill of health when they were traded. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

[jung]

By the end of this year, Lackey's age will be a factor that won't help him but presuming he does get through this year, he will have a year post TJ healthy and via the 2011 season a reputation for having pitched under extreme duress and considerable pain. I have to think getting through the year healthy, having worked very hard to get back on the field post TJ combined now with a reputation for taking the ball every time under extreme circumstances enhances his value.

 

I think there is a clear line of demarkation developing between the Pedey/Lackey guys of the league and the antithesis of the Pedey/Lackey guys of the league and I can't imagine it not having an impact on value. Not saying the Sox should necessarily shop Lackey after this season but I would just not be too fast to dismiss him as not having value as a trade chip as long as he gets through this season healthy.

[Behindenemylines]

With the value of what is left on his contract at worst he could be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. If for some reason the Sox aren't in contention next season you can then listen to offers for him. After getting little value out of at the beginning of the contract it is great to have some value now.

[Palodios]

Both Dickey and Shields had a history of at least two years of prior excellence and a clean bill of health when they were traded. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

 

Look at how everyone viewed Stephen Drew's free agency last year. He had two bad years because of one single non-recurring injury, so he got a one year pillow contract to prove he's still the same guy before hitting free agency big in 2014. Different scenario, but if Drew had an .800 OPS he'd up for a big contract.

 

Lackey's situation is very similar. Having a season that shows he's back to form -- and that his single non-recurring injury is not a problem -- will go far in proving his value. That being said, everyone speaks wonders about him in the clubhouse, and I think he's worth more here than somewhere else.

[a700hitter]

Look at how everyone viewed Stephen Drew's free agency last year. He had two bad years because of one single non-recurring injury, so he got a one year pillow contract to prove he's still the same guy before hitting free agency big in 2014. Different scenario, but if Drew had an .800 OPS he'd up for a big contract.

 

Lackey's situation is very similar. Having a season that shows he's back to form -- and that his single non-recurring injury is not a problem -- will go far in proving his value. That being said, everyone speaks wonders about him in the clubhouse, and I think he's worth more here than somewhere else.

Drew ruined his opportunity for a big contract.