Let's talk about Felix Doubront

[Orange Juiced]

Overall this year, Doubront has put up the following line:

 

99.0 ip, 97 h, 43 er, 43 bb, 93 k, 3.91 era, 1.41 whip, 8.5 k/9

 

He's only had one start (out of 16 total starts) where he's given up more than 3 earned runs. If you take away his one emergency relief outing (where he gave up 11 hits and 6 runs in 5.1 ip), his line as a starter is:

 

93.2 ip, 86 h, 37 er, 41 bb, 89 k, 3.56 era, 1.35 whip, 8.6 k/9

 

I mean, that's a terrific starter. He's averaging just under 6 innings per start (5.9, as it were). I wish he'd go deeper into games, but that's ok. The performance is there.

 

His last 11 starts his line is:

 

66.2 ip, 54 h, 20 er, 27 bb, 58 k, 2.70 era, 1.21 whip, 7.8 k/9

 

And his last 5 starts his line is:

 

33.0 ip, 22 h, 7 er, 11 bb, 25 k, 1.91 era, 1.00 whip, 6.8 k/9

 

So the k/9 rate has been dropping, but the whip has been improving considerably, as has the era. The guy is just dealing, and the results are tremendous.

 

He's just 25 years old and has terrific stuff. His problem has always been command. But now that he's shoring up his command, he's starting to dominate.

 

So the question is this: Is this just a blip on the radar for him, or is this the next step in his development to #2 starter status? How great would it be to have this guy, who is under control through 2017 and entering his prime years, grow into a top-level starter?

[User Name]

His velocity has also steadily increased to the point where, over his last five starts, his average fastball velocity has been over 90 MPH, with a maximum of 94 MPH. If he can fully regain his velocity while continuing to develop his command, then he could be consistently good.

[Orange Juiced]

His velocity has also steadily increased to the point where, over his last five starts, his average fastball velocity has been over 90 MPH, with a maximum of 94 MPH. If he can fully regain his velocity while continuing to develop his command, then he could be consistently good.

 

Agreed. But, of course, he has already been consistently good this year. In his last 10 starts:

 

- 8 of 10 have lasted 6+ innings (the other two were 4.2 and 5.0)

- only one has he given up more than 6 hits (and it was 7 hits allowed)

- only two has he given up more than 2 er (and both were 3 er allowed)

- 8 of 10 have been quality starts

 

That's pretty much as consistently good as it gets. The only thing you'd like to see is him going deeper into games...instead of 6+, I'd like to see 7+. But again, at this point in his career, I'll happily take what we're getting.

[User Name]

When i say "consistently good", i'm talking about years, not months. He's been on the verge of excellence this year. The only thing holding him back are walks.

[Orange Juiced]

When i say "consistently good", i'm talking about years, not months. He's been on the verge of excellence this year. The only thing holding him back are walks.

 

Right, fair point. Long way to go before we can say he's truly established himself.

 

I just looked up AL starters on espn.com's MLB stats page, and here's where Doubront ranks among qualified AL starters:

 

ERA: #20

IP: #36

K: #18

K/9: #11

WHIP: #38

QS%: #26

 

There are 15 teams in the league, each with 5 starting rotation slots, so that's 75 starting pitching slots. Doubront is between the 20th-25th best SP in the AL right now, with all those numbers taken into account, which means he's performing at the level of a #2.

 

So Lackey has been terrific, Buchholz has been unreal (when healthy), Doubront has been performing like a #2, and Dempster (4.04 era) has been solid. If they can just get Buchholz healthy and Lester on track, this rotation is going to be tremendous.

[mvp 78]

I like Doubs. Just wish he was more focused (too many walks, comes into camp out of shape). He has the ability to be a solid #2-3 in the league. He needs consistency. With Lester's struggles this year, it's looking less likely that Doubs will get traded in the offseason.

[Thunder]

I like Doubs. Just wish he was more focused (too many walks, comes into camp out of shape). He has the ability to be a solid #2-3 in the league. He needs consistency. With Lester's struggles this year, it's looking less likely that Doubs will get traded in the offseason.

 

My words exactly. I'm slowing falling in love with this guy.

[jung]

The way Lackey has pitched it will be tremendous if Buch comes back strong. If they get Lester going again it will be otherworldly.

[Standing Room]

I've been pointing out how consistent Doubront has been for a while now. Hopefully, he can avoid the issues with tiring in the second half that he experienced last year. On July 2nd of last year, Doubront had a 3.75 ERA and then he had an ERA over 6.00 for the rest of the season.

[BigPapi]

Theres no question him and Lackey are leading this rotation now. Last outing vs the mariners, his fastball command was excellent, even later in the game. His fastballs were mainly low and away or low and inside. He also had that big loopy curve ball of his working.

[Standing Room]

It would be awesome if Doubront could keep this up and slot in as our #3 starter behind Buchholz and Lackey.

[Behindenemylines]

Theres no question him and Lackey are leading this rotation now. Last outing vs the mariners, his fastball command was excellent, even later in the game. His fastballs were mainly low and away or low and inside. He also had that big loopy curve ball of his working.

 

I agree. Lackey and Doubrount were your number 4 and 5 starters at the beginning of the season and lately they have been your most consistent starters. A healthy Buchholtz and a better Lester down the stretch would be helpful for the Sox playoff chances.

[Orange Juiced]

Good start by Doubront again on Friday night against the Yankees. The kid has now gone 4 straight starts pitching into the 7th inning. I think that's the next phase of his development...consistently giving them 7+ innings. He's getting there.

 

By the way, the kid is making just north of $500k this year. He will pitch for similar money in 2014. He finally gets to arbitration in 2015, and is free agent eligible in 2018. So they have him for a while at low dollars.

 

Hard-throwing lefty that has several top-level major league pitches, is starting to harness that stuff, is already pitching like a #3 or #2 starter, is just 25 years old, is under team control for five more seasons minimum, and is making peanuts?

 

I think we can live with that.

[a700hitter]

Good start by Doubront again on Friday night against the Yankees. The kid has now gone 4 straight starts pitching into the 7th inning. I think that's the next phase of his development...consistently giving them 7+ innings. He's getting there.

 

By the way, the kid is making just north of $500k this year. He will pitch for similar money in 2014. He finally gets to arbitration in 2015, and is free agent eligible in 2018. So they have him for a while at low dollars.

 

Hard-throwing lefty that has several top-level major league pitches, is starting to harness that stuff, is already pitching like a #3 or #2 starter, is just 25 years old, is under team control for five more seasons minimum, and is making peanuts?

 

I think we can live with that.

There is no arguing that Doubront has been a major contribtuor to this team. He takes the ball every 5th day snd keeps his team competitive. Also, he seems to always perform well against the Yankees. You have to love that. The problem right now is that he is not our #4 or #5. He is our #2 right now. It's not a knock on him, but a commentary on just how thin we are in our front line pitching.

[Orange Juiced]

There is no arguing that Doubront has been a major contribtuor to this team. He takes the ball every 5th day snd keeps his team competitive. Also, he seems to always perform well against the Yankees. You have to love that. The problem right now is that he is not our #4 or #5. He is our #2 right now. It's not a knock on him, but a commentary on just how thin we are in our front line pitching.

 

Yeah, no doubt. With Buchholz out indefinitely and Lester sucking, those are a couple of major problems with the starting pitching. Thankfully Lackey and Doubront have been excellent. Dempster has been serviceable (last 10 starts: 3.90 era). But man, Lester and Buchholz are killing them right now (by being injured/ineffective).

 

And Tampa is coming on like a freight train.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, no doubt. With Buchholz out indefinitely and Lester sucking, those are a couple of major problems with the starting pitching. Thankfully Lackey and Doubront have been excellent. Dempster has been serviceable (last 10 starts: 3.90 era). But man, Lester and Buchholz are killing them right now (by being injured/ineffective).

 

And Tampa is coming on like a freight train.

And those O's are lurking. Last night's win was huge. The race really would have tightened up if we had lost. We played sloppily and stupidly the last 2 games. The need to get back to playing smart.

[jung]

Felix is featuring a better curve ball this year than I have ever seen him throw. Makes me wonder if Nieves has worked on that with him or Pedro or Farrell. Somebody did something because the change is just too large to ignore or just right up to a maturing player getting better. The only curve I have seen thrown by a Red Sox pitcher that might be better is Workman's when he is on. If it is better, it is not by much.

[Orange Juiced]

Felix is featuring a better curve ball this year than I have ever seen him throw. Makes me wonder if Nieves has worked on that with him or Pedro or Farrell. Somebody did something because the change is just too large to ignore or just right up to a maturing player getting better. The only curve I have seen thrown by a Red Sox pitcher that might be better is Workman's when he is on. If it is better, it is not by much.

 

Felix really has three plus pitches: his 94-95 mph fastball, his curve, and even his changeup. He has excellent stuff. It's just been a question of him harnessing it. It appears that he is heading in the direction of harnessing it, and we are seeing the results.

[User Name]

Felix' average fastball velocity this year has been 90.4 MPH. He has not sniffed mid-90's consistently at all this year.

[Orange Juiced]

Felix' average fastball velocity this year has been 90.4 MPH. He has not sniffed mid-90's consistently at all this year.

 

Until this year he was sitting 93-95 regularly. At the start of this year his velocity was low, but it's been steadily improving. Last few starts he's been around 92.

 

Here's his fangraphs velocity chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/1478_P_FA_20130719.png

 

Notice the vast drop-off to start the season, but the steady improvement as the season has gone on.

[User Name]

I've seen the chart. There has been no steady improvement, but rather amazing inconsistency. If he was sitting mid 90's like he was last year, he'd probably be the best pitcher on the staff.

[BSN07]

Doobey is finally starting to pitch like I had hoped he would back in the off season

[Orange Juiced]

I've seen the chart. There has been no steady improvement, but rather amazing inconsistency. If he was sitting mid 90's like he was last year, he'd probably be the best pitcher on the staff.

 

Of course it's not going to be the exact same velocity every start. But look:

 

- starts 3-9:

- 7 starts

- 1 starts where the average FB velocity was above 90 (and it was just a tick over 90)

 

- starts 10-18:

- 9 starts

- 7 starts where the average FB velocity was above 90

- 5 starts where the average FB velocity was about 92 or above

 

So yes, it's not totally consistent, but his velocity *IS* improving. There's no question about that.

[Orange Juiced]

Doubront's numbers now: 21 g, 124.0 ip, 8-5, 3.56 era, 118 era+, 1.37 whip, 8.1 k/9

 

From May 16 through last night, here's his line: 15 g, 91.2 ip, 2.55 era, 1.21 whip, 7.6 k/9

 

Still has only one start all season whereby he's given up more than 3 er. The last 3 games the Sox have lost when he's pitched they've scored 2, 1, and 1 runs.

 

Simply put, he's been one of the very best starting pitchers in all of baseball since May 16. Period.

[User Name]

Bit of hyperbole there, but a generally correct analysis.

[Orange Juiced]

Bit of hyperbole there, but a generally correct analysis.

 

How many SP in MLB have been better than Doubront since May 16? Here's the short list of candidates, as far as I can tell:

 

- DOUBRONT: 15 g, 91.2 ip, 2.55 era, 1.21 whip, 7.6 k/9

- Kershaw: 14 g, 104.0 ip, 2.16 era, 0.86 whip, 8.1 k/9

- Harvey: 14 g, 94.1 ip, 2.67 era, 0.98 whip, 10.5 k/9

- King Felix: 14 g, 96.0 ip, 2.81 era, 1.15 whip, 9.6 k/9

- Scherzer: 14 g, 97.0 ip, 2.23 era, 0.87 whip, 9.5 k/9

- Corbin: 14 g, 97.0 ip, 2.78 era, 0.99 whip, 8.2 k/9

- Kuroda: 14 g, 89.0 ip, 2.43 era, 1.02 whip, 6.6 k/9

- Colon: 14 g, 100.1 ip, 1.52 era, 1.13 whip, 4.6 k/9

- Fernandez: 14 g, 90.2 ip, 2.08 era, 0.95 whip, 9.8 k/9

- Wainwright: 15 g, 110.0 ip, 2.78 era, 1.06 whip, 7.9 k/9

- Darvish: 13 g, 86.0 ip, 2.62 era, 1.08 whip, 11.1 k/9

 

There may be a few more in this group, but to even be talking about Doubront with this list of A+ stars (I still can't believe Bartolo Colon...) is VERY impressive.

[sk7326]

Any list you can appear on with Clayton Kershaw you are doing something right. Doubront is on a great run, and even if this is a bit of a fluke - he has clearly improved and started to harness his real talent.

[Orange Juiced]

Any list you can appear on with Clayton Kershaw you are doing something right. Doubront is on a great run, and even if this is a bit of a fluke - he has clearly improved and started to harness his real talent.

 

Well, even at his best run Doubront can't touch Kershaw. But the point is that all these guys are bona fide #1 pitchers, and a bunch of them are aces by any definition of the term. And since May 16, Doubront has been every bit as good as most of them.

 

I don't think any of us, in our wildest dreams, thought he'd get to this level. I was as optimistic about him as anyone here, but even I can't believe how well he's pitched this season, right from the beginning too. I mean, he's had just one start where he's given up more than 3 earned runs. That's amazing.

[mvp 78]

Any list you can appear on with Clayton Kershaw you are doing something right. Doubront is on a great run, and even if this is a bit of a fluke - he has clearly improved and started to harness his real talent.

 

Huh? This just doesn't make any sense. If I made a list of the top 50 pitchers in baseball, it would include Kershaw and some #3 starters.

[mvp 78]

His WHIP is still on the higher side and needs to come down for sustained long term success. He's YTD numbers are remarkably not that different from 2012. No one was comparing him to Kershaw then.