Let's talk about Felix Doubront

[Orange Juiced]

His WHIP is still on the higher side and needs to come down for sustained long term success. He's YTD numbers are remarkably not that different from 2012. No one was comparing him to Kershaw then.

 

Nobody is really comparing him to Kershaw now either. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the sport. Doubront's been on an amazing run, but it still can't come close to Kershaw's brilliance.

 

By the way, the Dodgers are going to be spending money like an insane drunken sailor. Their payroll is already off the charts, and they've been looking to lock Kershaw up long-term, a deal that will likely be a 7-year, $180 million figure ($25.7 m per year). PLUS, I just heard a report from a Mets beat reporter that the Dodgers will be all-in on Cano, who will cost a fortune. Their payroll could hit $270 million next season. Holy smokes.

[kapsis21]

I am going to admit it, I was on his tail for a long time thinking he was out of shape and running out of gas after 5 innings. he has been mr consistent so far..

[User Name]

His WHIP is still on the higher side and needs to come down for sustained long term success. He's YTD numbers are remarkably not that different from 2012. No one was comparing him to Kershaw then.

 

Not enough IP either. I get it, he's been good, but let's stay realistic here.

 

Also, the whole "since May" or "when you take out X start" or "when facing lefties at night when it's raining and Jason Giambi just stole a base" thing really doesn't convince me. His whole body of work is what it is.

[sk7326]

Nobody is really comparing him to Kershaw now either. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the sport. Doubront's been on an amazing run, but it still can't come close to Kershaw's brilliance.

 

By the way, the Dodgers are going to be spending money like an insane drunken sailor. Their payroll is already off the charts, and they've been looking to lock Kershaw up long-term, a deal that will likely be a 7-year, $180 million figure ($25.7 m per year). PLUS, I just heard a report from a Mets beat reporter that the Dodgers will be all-in on Cano, who will cost a fortune. Their payroll could hit $270 million next season. Holy smokes.

 

Hooray for TV money

[sk7326]

Obviously Doubront is no Kershaw (or Darvish, or Scherzer or Verlander or whatever). But he has had a very strong stretch. And yes he has shown some of the quality of a legit #3. Granted he did that a bit last year, but also was extremely unlucky. The xFIP is identical - but this year, the results are there. Some of it is good fortune, and some of it is substantial improvement defensively (at RF, SS particularly).

 

What holds him back from the next leap is taking his form into the 8th inning more frequently. He is also still fairly pitch inefficient.

[mvp 78]

Or maybe he's overly lucky this year?

 

The WHIP is too high for him to be an elite pitcher. Stating he's been one of the best pitchers since May is overstating what he brings to the staff.

[sk7326]

Or maybe he's overly lucky this year?

 

The WHIP is too high for him to be an elite pitcher. Stating he's been one of the best pitchers since May is overstating what he brings to the staff.

 

Well ... the ERA and xFIP are fairly in line - so there is some evidence that this is his true level. But his whole body of work is nothing to sneeze at either - he has given them competitive turns in the rotation most times out, and considering how bad the Sox were in this area in 2012, that has been a huge help. He is getting more groundballs this year, and the flyballs are not going over the fence (a lot of the luck component at work) at nearly the rate of a year ago. Just churning out 6 competitive innings was a chore the last year or so - that turnaround as much as anything has defined this season's team.

[BSN07]

Doobey is finally pitching the way I thought he would this off season. He's been very encouraging lately

[jung]

I think his talent level may well have been predictable for this season but I don't think the level of maturity he has shown on the mound was predictable especially after showing up for ST out of shape AGAIN.

 

Felix has completely changed the way he goes after hitters.

[lospunchados]

Doubront has been fantastic this year. He's on his way to being a very good #2 or #3 starter. His success this year has a lot to do with a few things, he is inducing a lot more groundballs than before (just over 4% more) and all ready has more double plays this year than all of last year. His homerun rate is way down from last year, that is a little luck but also he is doing a much better job of getting groundballs so a little skill as well. He is throwing less two seam fastballs and more regular ones and his cutter which he just added last year was a terrible pitch last year for him is much improved this year ( and because of that he is throwing it way more than last year). And mostly if you watch him pitch this year vs last year, he just goes after hitters more often.

[a700hitter]

He's been very solid. He takes his turn every 5 th day and he usually keeps us in the game. Over 162 games that may be the best thing a starter can do for his team. Sure I would like to have a big stud like King Felix, but it is more important to have 4 guys like Doubs. You can't be successful if you have a couple of black holes in the rotation. That was my fear coming into the season. I feared that Lackey's spot would be one black hole and that we would have one other long term injury without any good depth options. Thankfully, we have only had the 1 inquiry, and thankfully Workman did an admirable job of filling in for 3 starts. Our other depth options were disappointing, so we have been very fortunate that we haven't had to employ more than one in any rotation cycle. Peavy will fill Buch's spot and our rotation is once again intact. Lester and Dempster will have some horrendous starts here and there, but as long as everyone takes their turn and eats innings, the pitching will be fine.

[Dojji]

If he went deeper into games, he'd be a borderline top of the rotation guy. This is not a #3 roster filler. I expect him to improve next year and shoot up the rankings too. His command is improving steadily.

[Orange Juiced]

He's been very solid. He takes his turn every 5 th day and he usually keeps us in the game. Over 162 games that may be the best thing a starter can do for his team. Sure I would like to have a big stud like King Felix, but it is more important to have 4 guys like Doubs. You can't be successful if you have a couple of black holes in the rotation. That was my fear coming into the season. I feared that Lackey's spot would be one black hole and that we would have one other long term injury without any good depth options. Thankfully, we have only had the 1 inquiry, and thankfully Workman did an admirable job of filling in for 3 starts. Our other depth options were disappointing, so we have been very fortunate that we haven't had to employ more than one in any rotation cycle. Peavy will fill Buch's spot and our rotation is once again intact. Lester and Dempster will have some horrendous starts here and there, but as long as everyone takes their turn and eats innings, the pitching will be fine.

 

Yep, I agree. This is the first time in a while where I feel pretty comfortable with all five spots in the rotation. I would love to see Buchholz back and Lester return to being the consistently terrific starter he once was, and if that happens, this five-man group (Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, Lackey, Doubront) will be the best in the sport. Of course, I don't know if we'll ever get to that point, but I suppose it's possible.

[Palodios]

Not enough IP either. I get it, he's been good, but let's stay realistic here.

 

Also, the whole "since May" or "when you take out X start" or "when facing lefties at night when it's raining and Jason Giambi just stole a base" thing really doesn't convince me. His whole body of work is what it is.

 

Most partial statistics are not that valuable. I do think in Doubront's case it is worth looking at the smaller sample size. If he came into spring training in better physical shape, and hit higher velocities earlier in the season, do you really think he would have had such a rough April?

[jacksonianmarch]

He's a 25 yr old LHP who can hit the mid 90s who is putting up a 2.3WAR season with 2 months to go. His first two months were a disaster but he's been dynamite since and showed he isn't slowing down. He's exactly what you want out of a #4 starter and will probably work his way higher in your pecking order should he continue to show the command he has shown over the last 2+ months

[jung]

The question with Felix is exactly described by this season so far. Will Felix ever really get it? Will he continue to show up for ST out of shape as he has twice now. This year it very likely cost him early season performances that can turn what is on balance a ho-hum year into a great year, a watershed year for him.

 

This year, for the first time, Felix has shown that he has developed the mound maturity and has the stuff to be more than a rotation 3. But does he have the head to even maintain stature as a rotation 3? Pitchers that are perennial rotation 4's and 5's and not improving from there, end up trade cannon fodder and sometimes worse.

 

What worries me is that the brass ring has been hanging out there for Felix to pull for a good long time now. Didn't stop him from showing up out of shape again this past ST.

Edited August 6, 2013 by jung

[Orange Juiced]

He's a 25 yr old LHP who can hit the mid 90s who is putting up a 2.3WAR season with 2 months to go. His first two months were a disaster but he's been dynamite since and showed he isn't slowing down. He's exactly what you want out of a #4 starter and will probably work his way higher in your pecking order should he continue to show the command he has shown over the last 2+ months

 

Doubront's first two months were a disaster? They weren't great, but I wouldn't consider them to be a disaster. He had one horrible relief outing (which is not what he normally does, so that's understandable). But he had 8 starts over those two months, and in only one of them did he give up more than 3 er. He averaged 5.2 ip in those starts. Outside of that one horrible start (3.1 ip, 12 h, 6 er, 1 bb, 2 k), here was his stat line:

 

40.3 ip, 33 h, 17 er, 23 bb, 47 k, 3.79 era, 1.39 whip, 10.5 k/9

 

So besides one horrific start, he kept his team in every single game, and the Sox won 6 of his 8 starts.

 

That's a pretty solid #5 starter - that isn't a "disaster". What was a disaster was what the Sox threw out there at the end of 2011 and for much of 2012.

[sk7326]

Doubront has evolved into one of the AL's best lefty starters. Nobody would argue he is better than Price, Moore, Sale, Holland whomever at their respective best ... but he has been more consistent than Price and Moore this season (Price's start was particularly lousy) - Moore has not gone deep into games that often and he has had a few stinkers too.

 

He has that occasional agonizing slow, can't find the plate innings out of "Dice-K's greatest hits" ... but it has gotten a lot better.

[Orange Juiced]

He continues to pitch well. A hiccup against the Yankees, but still looking strong: 3.79 era, 7.8 k/9, doesn't miss starts. He's having a fine season for the Sox.

[Behindenemylines]

If the season ended today and the Sox needed a fourth SP in the playoffs he would be the guy. Dempster is struggling right now and no one knows about Buchholtz.

[Orange Juiced]

If the season ended today and the Sox needed a fourth SP in the playoffs he would be the guy. Dempster is struggling right now and no one knows about Buchholtz.

 

No doubt. Fortunately, the season doesn't end today and there's time for Clay to return healthy and strong. It'll be an interesting decision for Farrell (one that he will no doubt want to have to make) if Clay, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, and Lackey are all pitching well - which 4 make up the postseason rotation.

[sk7326]

No doubt. Fortunately, the season doesn't end today and there's time for Clay to return healthy and strong. It'll be an interesting decision for Farrell (one that he will no doubt want to have to make) if Clay, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, and Lackey are all pitching well - which 4 make up the postseason rotation.

 

I'd think assuming he is healthy enough to go, Buchholz makes the rotation - usually guys coming off of arm trouble need some regularity, so he wouldn't add value to the bullpen. For me, Dempster is the odd man out - and maybe only having to get 6ish outs at a time, his stuff might play up more. (if you could add another 2 mph to the fastball, that splitter makes a very powerful tandem)

[Orange Juiced]

I'd think assuming he is healthy enough to go, Buchholz makes the rotation - usually guys coming off of arm trouble need some regularity, so he wouldn't add value to the bullpen. For me, Dempster is the odd man out - and maybe only having to get 6ish outs at a time, his stuff might play up more. (if you could add another 2 mph to the fastball, that splitter makes a very powerful tandem)

 

Yeah, keep in mind that Dempster has extensive experience coming out of the bullpen - he used to be a closer. So I think he'd adapt to that role (not the closer's role...a bullpen role) pretty easily. And he could be a valuable guy in the bullpen. Like you said, he probably could throw 92-93 instead of 90-91, he does come after people, he has a bulldog mentality, and he could also give you a lot of innings in case the starter craps the bed or gets hurt.

[Behindenemylines]

Another quality start last night for Doubrount. I was surprised that he got out of the third only giving up 2 runs when he had the bases loaded against him with the heart of the O's lineup coming up. Last night could have gone differently if he doesn't get out of the third and gives up 4 or 5 runs. Hopefully, he can continue to go out the rest of the season and give the Sox quality starts.

[jimbo50]

always liked Dubrount but his control issues will likely land him in bullpen if Clay comes back with the same dominance he had before his injury.

[jung]

Even if Buch does not come back with the same dominance (and I seriously doubt he will) Felix simply can't be trusted under late season/post season circumstances. He simply does not bring much focus to the mound. That won't work when it really counts.

[SoxSport]

Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and hopefully Buchholz.

[Orange Juiced]

Last two starts it's been a real struggle for Felix. I'm very interested in his next start. Either he rights the ship and these last two were just blips on the radar, or he continues to struggle and it would appear he's hit a wall.

 

So I agree with you, SoxSport, at this point (not knowing what Clay will give us), I think the playoff rotation needs to be Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and then probably Clay.

[Behindenemylines]

Doubrount looks like he has hit the wall. When Buchholtz comes back it may be him and not Dempster who goes to the pen. The suspension and days off seem to help Dempster a little so maybe they should do the same for Doubrount. He is still tough on lefties and would help the Sox out of the bullpen in the post season.