Halfway Point-- Biggest Surprises and Biggest Disappointments

[a700hitter]

Brian Butterfield: Never thought I'd find myself missing Dale Sveum.

 

When a great professional like Omar Vizquel questions what the hell is going on with the running game, you no something is rotten. I watched a lot of Blue Jays games over the last couple of seasons, and as bad as our base running has been, it has not been close to stupidity that had gone on in Toronto in 2011 and 2012.

[a700hitter]

Ortiz: The man is getting old. He's the only player left from the '04 team, and that was almost a decade ago. I thought he'd run out of steam a couple years after that, but here we are, ten years later. I've gone through three or four girlfriends, approximately 3650 toothbrushes, four cars, and almost certainly enough cigarettes to asphyxiate a small city, and David Ortiz is still hitting harder than the hour after the Super Bowl party at Chris Brown's house. Gotta love Ortiz.

Some advice is in order. Increase the girlfriends and cut back on the cigs. The girls will make you go crazy, but you'll be healthier and have the stamina to run away.

[Palodios]

Buchholz has lost his chance at the CY Young already, and the All Star game should be out of the question. I doubt its just soreness -- it probably was a roughed up vertebrae. They need to do whatever it takes to keep him healthy and ready for the playoffs, even if that means keeping him out of games in July.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz has lost his chance at the CY Young already, and the All Star game should be out of the question. I doubt its just soreness -- it probably was a roughed up vertebrae. They need to do whatever it takes to keep him healthy and ready for the playoffs, even if that means keeping him out of games in July.

It is reminiscent of the mysterious broken back from a couple of seasons ago. It always concerned me that they never identified the cause of that injury.

[User Name]

I think Buchholz is into S&M, and since his wife roughs him up, these "mysterious" injuries keep popping up.

[a700hitter]

I think Buchholz is into S&M, and since his wife roughs him up, these "mysterious" injuries keep popping up.

I could understand that.

[a700hitter]

 

 

Napoli- I am disappointed with the Ks as well as the power outage of late. His last homerun came a while ago. I am pleased that he is working counts and making pitchers labor, but I am a little worried that his tendency to not make contact will doom him as the second half plays out. I hope not, though, and I am sure of one thing: Napoli is the kind of guy who can turn this around.

 

He's on pace for his lowest HR total (17) since 2007 when he played only 75 games. I have to think that this will turn around.

[Palodios]

He's on pace for his lowest HR total (17) since 2007 when he played only 75 games. I have to think that this will turn around.

 

 

He's also on pace to crush his highest 2B total (25) and RBI total (75).

[Standing Room]

Pleasant surprises - Lackey, Iglesias, Carp

Disappointments - Middlebrooks, Hanrahan, Ellsbury

 

Mike Carp is a guy who really interests me. He's making $500,000 and he's under team control through 2016. I realize his BABIP is over .400 right now, but we don't have any first good base prospects in our system. If Carp could manage an OPS near .850 for the next few years he could be a cheap, valuable first baseman.

[seabeachfred]

They say cigarettes and girls are the vices of danger, but the problem is that there is usually too many cigarettes and not enough girls. Can I remind anyone who doesn't know yet that the Orioles lost today to the White Sox and that puts us four games ahead of them. To me that is a nice 4th of July present.

[Bellhorn04]

They say cigarettes and girls are the vices of danger, but the problem is that there is usually too many cigarettes and not enough girls. Can I remind anyone who doesn't know yet that the Orioles lost today to the White Sox and that puts us four games ahead of them. To me that is a nice 4th of July present.

 

Fred, when you get a minute please read the thread about the 'Twins under Gardenhire' in the Damn Yankees sub-forum and leave a comment there. I look forward to hearing what you think about the Twins record against the Yanks.

[Station 13]

standing room how is Ellsbury a disappointment?

[Standing Room]

standing room how is Ellsbury a disappointment?

 

The last time he was healthy and had this poor of an offensive season was 2008. I expected more from him considering he's in the prime of his career and playing for a contract. He's been a lot better lately though, hopefully he can have a better second half.

[Dojji]

I think it's fair to list Cherington as a pleasant surprise. He turned this franchise around in a process I was convinced would take 3-4 years, in a single offseason, by making smart, precise signings that improved the team without overextending its resources.

 

Nava is not much of a surprise. His current numbers (~800 OPS, .380 OBP) are where I said he'd probably level out. Frankly remembering last year's second half, I suspect Nava may be well into his second half skid again. Looks like the team has noticed, and fortunately Carp and Gomes are taking up the slack.

 

I agree on Salty and Uehara. I think Miller is now underrated. He's sooooooo overpowering I'm surprised they haven't gone to him more in late innings the way the Dodgers do with Kenley Jansen.

 

And no doubt in my mind that the biggest surprise, pleasant or otherwise, is Lackey. Fortunately for us, he's a pleasant surprise.

[Dojji]

The last time he was healthy and had this poor of an offensive season was 2008. I expected more from him considering he's in the prime of his career and playing for a contract. He's been a lot better lately though, hopefully he can have a better second half.

 

I don't understand this mindset. Ellsbury is doing everything you could possibly ask of a premiere centerfielder and leadoff man. How many teams in this league have a 360 OBP guy with 60-70 SB speed hitting first for them? Ells is bringing more than enough power to let his speed have maximum play. He leads the league in triples and slugs more than .400, and with speed like his, I can't figure out why anyone would demand more than that.

 

Forget the 30 HR fluke in 2011, and what you see is one of the premium offensive roleplayers in the game and a fantastically well-balanced leadoff man.. So just don't hold him to that standard. It won't happen and we don't need it from him anyway.

 

The guy I see in front of me is someone I'd be willing to meet a slightly unreasonable price to keep around. Bradley or no Bradley. that skillset is not particularly replaceable. That, and frankly despite my mancrush on Nava, I see Bradley, Victorino and Ellsbury being able to split the outfield between them next year and giving us the best defensive outfield in the game bar none. Was kind of hoping Nava would make some progress from the right side so he could stick around and back up, but I guess the world can't be perfect.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Dojji

[jung]

I think we did forget the 30 HR year for Ells and with good reason. He is not a HR hitter. Unfortunately it was pretty clear early on this year that Ells had not forgotten it or maybe Boras had not forgotten it. He spent the early part of his season all the way up till latter in May, trying to jack the ball over the RF wall. All that produced was an endless string of ground outs as he kept rolling over. BA fell to a low of 241 and OBP fell to 303 at the bottom. Good thing Vic did a good job behind him as the team did not suffer much for it. If it was not painfully obvious it should have been when it took nothing more than a change of approach at the plate to turn his entire season around. As soon as Ells stopped trying to jack the ball over the fence, his stroke improved dramatically as did everything else offensively. His BA has climbed to 303 and his OBP is 367. He is stealing bases and doing all the things you expect of the guy batting 1st in the order maybe with the exception of drawing a few more BB's.

 

I don't think Farrell had Ells batting from the 1 hole with the idea that he would go to the plate with HR on his mind. That said, even if only marginally I suspect Boras and Ells will pay for their sins. If Ells had been producing as he has been lately from the beginning of the season, his numbers right now would be insane. An entire year like that would likely yield something pretty close to the same salary territory as a 20 HR season combined with less of everything else. Maybe he would be on his way to the ASG via vote instead of running 8th in the voting as of earlier this week. An AS game selection has to mean something as far as salary goes. So he very likely cost himself there also.

 

If he keeps going like he is going now the early season fiasco will likely cost him a couple $M per year but not more than that.

 

However, contrast Ells with Gomes and his selfless attitude toward getting much less playing time than he had thought when he signed and some disappointment in Ells is understandable. If the team had done poorly while Ells was pulling that s***, substitute anger for disappointment as that also would have been justified. It is another good example of how the money corrupts baseball.

[SoxSport]

The biggest surprise is clearly Iglesias. This kid was advertised as a non-hitter. Not a weak hitter--a non-hitter.

 

So what does he do? He comes up to the Red Sox and has hit .400 . Now he hasn't hit 20 HRs, so we know it's not because of PEDs. But he has shown everybody what it takes to get on base. And using his speed as an advantage. He is playing with his head--which is not as common as you would think in baseball.

 

If he hadn't been forced to play 3B the 1st half, he might be the all-star SS right now.

[Standing Room]

I don't understand this mindset. Ellsbury is doing everything you could possibly ask of a premiere centerfielder and leadoff man. How many teams in this league have a 360 OBP guy with 60-70 SB speed hitting first for them? Ells is bringing more than enough power to let his speed have maximum play. He leads the league in triples and slugs more than .400, and with speed like his, I can't figure out why anyone would demand more than that.

 

Forget the 30 HR fluke in 2011, and what you see is one of the premium offensive roleplayers in the game and a fantastically well-balanced leadoff man.. So just don't hold him to that standard. It won't happen and we don't need it from him anyway.

 

The guy I see in front of me is someone I'd be willing to meet a slightly unreasonable price to keep around. Bradley or no Bradley. that skillset is not particularly replaceable. That, and frankly despite my mancrush on Nava, I see Bradley, Victorino and Ellsbury being able to split the outfield between them next year and giving us the best defensive outfield in the game bar none. Was kind of hoping Nava would make some progress from the right side so he could stick around and back up, but I guess the world can't be perfect.

 

Who said anything about being disappointed he's not hitting home runs? I'm disappointed that up until yesterday, he had bee having his worst offensive season since his rookie year and he's in the prime of his career playing for a contract. Also, his defense has been average. He's basically about as valuable as Brett Gardner. He's going to get Carl Crawford type money and he's just not that good. There's no way I'd sign him in to his mid-30's if this is the way he's producing in the prime of his career.

[redsoxfan3]

Who said anything about being disappointed he's not hitting home runs? I'm disappointed that up until yesterday, he had bee having his worst offensive season since his rookie year and he's in the prime of his career playing for a contract. Also, his defense has been average. He's basically about as valuable as Brett Gardner. He's going to get Carl Crawford type money and he's just not that good. There's no way I'd sign him in to his mid-30's if this is the way he's producing in the prime of his career.

 

Ellsbury is hitting .303. He has an OBP of .367. His average and his OBP are both above his career numbers. His OPS+ is also above his career average. His 2011 year was great. It would be nice to see him hit 30 HR's and get 100+ RBI's, but that realistically is probably never going to happen again for him. For the type of production that he is giving and the type of production that this team needs from him is synchronizing at the right time. He is a leadoff hitter. We do not need him to hit for a lot of power. He has 19 2B's, 7 3B's, 33 SB's, and has scored 54 runs. He is getting on base. He is hitting for a good average. He is stealing bases. His 30 RBI's are not horrible in the leadoff role.

 

What more do you want or expect from him? You say that you are not disappointed in him not hitting home runs. You say that you are disappointed that he is having his "worst offensive season since his rookie year." He has his second highest batting average since his rookie year. He has his second highest OBP since his rookie year. He is probably on pace to reach around 50-60 SB's. He is on pace to hitting a career high in 3B's. It actually looks like he is on track to have his second best season in his career this year. His numbers at a little over the halfway mark look similar to the season he had in 2009. Aside from 2011, I would say that this season has the potential to rank as the second best season in his career if he stays healthy. He is doing everything he needs to do offensively as a leadoff hitter. I am not sure if we are watching the same Jacoby Ellsbury this year.

[Dojji]

I'm disappointed that up until yesterday, he had bee having his worst offensive season since his rookie year

 

Wat.

 

This fails both the numbers test and the eyeball test. This is not a matter of opinion. You are in fact wrong, by every measurable standard...

 

... except that of home runs, the one thing you outspokenly declare that you're not disappointed at Ellsbury over. So how again is he having his worst offensive season since his rookie year?

 

It's hard to realistically audit a player's ability once he gets that 5 tool designation, but with Ellsbury we need to step back and realize that this isn't actually a 5 tool plaeyr. He's a 4 and a half tool centerfielder with really good tools and ability, good swing, good range, good OBP, fantastic speed... and above average power. Enough to string together a good power year with a combination of health and luck but not consistently enough to make a career of it. That's what he is, and he's finally realizing it.

 

Ellsbury is better served using his swing to sting the ball on the line, use the power he does have (which isn't 25 HR, but isn't chopped liver either) to plug the gaps and "slug" with his feet. Frankly there are few ballplayers that aren't better off learning to do that rather than swing large, but that's another debate.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Dojji

[Standing Room]

At the time I said Ellsbury was a disappointment, he was hitting .298/.361/.404 with a .336 wOBA. The last time he was healthy and had a year worse than that was his rookie year in 2008 when he hit .280/.336/.394 with a .323 wOBA. I didn't expect him to hit 30 home runs, or even 20 home runs. But I also didn't expect him to have the lowest ISO of his career as a 28 year old (again, not counting partial seasons). And I was expecting to see the elite defense we saw in 2011. We've seen average defense and virtually no power. He's still a good player, he just isn't one of the most valuable players in the league, and it's not because he's not hitting 30 home runs.

[redsoxfan3]

At the time I said Ellsbury was a disappointment, he was hitting .298/.361/.404 with a .336 wOBA. The last time he was healthy and had a year worse than that was his rookie year in 2008 when he hit .280/.336/.394 with a .323 wOBA. I didn't expect him to hit 30 home runs, or even 20 home runs. But I also didn't expect him to have the lowest ISO of his career as a 28 year old (again, not counting partial seasons). And I was expecting to see the elite defense we saw in 2011. We've seen average defense and virtually no power. He's still a good player, he just isn't one of the most valuable players in the league, and it's not because he's not hitting 30 home runs.

 

His numbers between yesterday and today are not that much of a difference. He increased his OBP by .006 and his batting average by .005 in the matter of that time. That is an immaterial difference. This is only his fourth season where he has played 80+ games, three in which he played 145+ and the one he had played 80 is this year, which is in progress. You are comparing this season to four others, saying that his rookie year was his worst out of the four. That leaves 2011 and 2009. 2011 was a ridiculous year for him. That leaves 2009 as the only other comparable season. He has similar numbers this year as he did in 2009, in terms of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. His numbers this year are already higher than those in 2009. Also, whether it was not higher when you said that he was a disappointment is immaterial. His numbers were similar a couple days ago as they are today. This could potentially be his second best season after the season is over.

 

The power numbers are not really an issue. We would love for him to hit 30 homers again, but with him on track to be around 60 stolen bases, hitting .300, and getting on base at .360 is more than satisfactory. Every team in baseball would love for their leadoff guy to produce like that. When you say that he is not one of the most valuable players in the league, that leads me to believe that you expect him to produce like his 2011 season on a consistent basis. That is probably never going to happen again. He might not be a Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera in terms of power, but he is definitely one of the better leadoff hitters in the game. He is a solid leadoff hitter. He might not be having an MVP caliber season, but he is having a good season.

[seabeachfred]

And I think we ought to start considering the idea of signing him to a new contract after the season. We will be hard pressed to replace him as a leadoff hitter and 300 hitters do not grow on trees in the Major Leagues. Ells has quieted his critics and rebounded nicely and has stayed healthy up to now. It now seems those past injuries were more freakish than anything and we do not know how long it will take for Jackie to hit ML pitching on a consistent basis. I would like to have both of them in the lineup for us next season.

[redsoxfan3]

And I think we ought to start considering the idea of signing him to a new contract after the season. We will be hard pressed to replace him as a leadoff hitter and 300 hitters do not grow on trees in the Major Leagues. Ells has quieted his critics and rebounded nicely and has stayed healthy up to now. It now seems those past injuries were more freakish than anything and we do not know how long it will take for Jackie to hit ML pitching on a consistent basis. I would like to have both of them in the lineup for us next season.

 

I do not think that is all that realistic. I think Ellsbury is going to test out the market, especially being a Boras client. There is a chance we can sign him in the offseason, but to be honest, I am not all that worried about it right now.

 

Bradley has the rest of the year to keep developing. Kalish should start a rehab assignment in the near future, barring any setbacks. Victorino is capable of playing CF. Brentz is showing he has a lot of power to compete for a position in RF. Hazelbaker might provide some competition in LF and he has some speed. Not to mention, Nava, Gomes, Victorino, and Carp are all going to be back next year.

 

Victorino, Kalish, and Bradley can fight for CF. Worst case scenario is that Bradley proves he can take over everyday and Victorino moves back to RF. Kalish can play all three positions.

 

If Bradley is not major league ready, then Brentz and Nava can fight for RF along with Kalish, especially since we do not know what to fully expect from Kalish.

 

Gomes, Carp, Kalish, Nava, and Bradley all have experience in LF at the major league level.

 

Coming into Spring Training, having Gomes, Kalish, Carp, Brentz, Hazelbaker, Victorino, Nava, and Bradley would create solid competition. Of course we would be a better team with Ellsbury, I still think we would have a decent OF options going into the spring.

 

There are always FA options. There is the possibility of signing Choo to play RF and Victorino to play LF if we cannot resign Ells. The same goes for Hunter Pence. Carlos Beltran will be a FA and could be a short-term solution. There are other options as well. I don't think it is something to start worrying about now, especially with how well we are playing.

 

Also, the biggest thing is finding a new leadoff hitter.

Edited July 5, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[a700hitter]

Ellsbury went from a disappointment to not a disappointment in 2 day? I must have missed something. Did he have one of those Freddie Lynn 3 Homer and a Triple games?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Biggest surprise is the division lead, for sure. Don't want to jinx it though.

 

Just checked the overall standings for the first time in a while. The f***ing Pittsburgh Pirates have the best record in the game??

[mvp 78]

Biggest surprise is the division lead, for sure. Don't want to jinx it though.

 

Just checked the overall standings for the first time in a while. The f***ing Pittsburgh Pirates have the best record in the game??

 

It's only taken how many high first round picks?

[Standing Room]

Ellsbury went from a disappointment to not a disappointment in 2 day? I must have missed something. Did he have one of those Freddie Lynn 3 Homer and a Triple games?

 

Reading is hard.

[a700hitter]

Reading is hard.

I read your posts. They are nonsense.

[Standing Room]

His numbers between yesterday and today are not that much of a difference. He increased his OBP by .006 and his batting average by .005 in the matter of that time. That is an immaterial difference. This is only his fourth season where he has played 80+ games, three in which he played 145+ and the one he had played 80 is this year, which is in progress. You are comparing this season to four others, saying that his rookie year was his worst out of the four. That leaves 2011 and 2009. 2011 was a ridiculous year for him. That leaves 2009 as the only other comparable season. He has similar numbers this year as he did in 2009, in terms of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. His numbers this year are already higher than those in 2009. Also, whether it was not higher when you said that he was a disappointment is immaterial. His numbers were similar a couple days ago as they are today. This could potentially be his second best season after the season is over.

 

The power numbers are not really an issue. We would love for him to hit 30 homers again, but with him on track to be around 60 stolen bases, hitting .300, and getting on base at .360 is more than satisfactory. Every team in baseball would love for their leadoff guy to produce like that. When you say that he is not one of the most valuable players in the league, that leads me to believe that you expect him to produce like his 2011 season on a consistent basis. That is probably never going to happen again. He might not be a Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera in terms of power, but he is definitely one of the better leadoff hitters in the game. He is a solid leadoff hitter. He might not be having an MVP caliber season, but he is having a good season.

 

For the third time, the home runs aren't the issue. What happened to the great defense he was playing in 2011? If Ellsbury was playing elite defense, he would be one of the most valuable players in the league even with an average offensive season by his standards.