Bailey - Stay or Go?

[User Name]

My theory is that Farrell is trying to build back Bailey's confidence. If his problems are physical though, there's literally nothing Farrell can do.

[a700hitter]

There is almost a 0% chance that Bailey isn't injured. He's very, very clearly injured right now. Probably just doesn't want to further exacerbate the injury-prone stigma that goes with his name.

 

Either way, a DL stint is almost certainly inevitable.

A DL stint is the only way to get him back to the minors for a rehab stint.

 

His out pitch is the slider which he has abandoned completely. Scott Kazmir did the same thing a few years back because his arm couldn't stand the strain. I think it is a chronic problem with Bailey. He always had elbow issues and forearm tightness. His arm being shot was not a long shot bet. It was fairly probable.

[MJantomaso]

My theory is that Farrell is trying to build back Bailey's confidence. If his problems are physical though, there's literally nothing Farrell can do.

 

That's exactly what he's trying to do.

[jung]

You don't abandon you most important secondary pitch the way Bailey has because you have a mental block. You abandon it because you can't physically throw it any longer.

 

Bailey probably does have a reluctance to throw his FB for strikes because it is not, taken on its own, that great a pitch and he weakens fairly quickly even when he is throwing it decent. Whenever he does throw it in the zone it gets creamed.

 

They can fart around with him till hell freezes over IMO and the should...they paid for him...they own him. I don't think it will get them anywhere though.

 

Whatever they do with him at this point should be as low leverage as it can get...as in not in live games.

[a700hitter]

Morales is reportedly getting an MRI and is expected to be DL'd again with shoulder problems. The bullpen is disintegrating rapidly. Morales was also supposed to be a depth option for starting. Right now, the only good depth option is Aceves.

[seabeachfred]

My theory is that Farrell is trying to build back Bailey's confidence. If his problems are physical though, there's literally nothing Farrell can do.

 

Your theory is right and it's pure ******** any w ay you look at it. You don't try to build up someone's confidence at the expense of the team's chances to win. The individual player means little; it's the team that counts...THE TEAM!!!!!!!

[a700hitter]

Your theory is right and it's pure ******** any w ay you look at it. You don't try to build up someone's confidence at the expense of the team's chances to win. The individual player means little; it's the team that counts...THE TEAM!!!!!!!

Fred, don't get too worked up. You let them get your hopes up. I am just enjoying them being competitive after last year's trainwreck, but I don't have any big expectations of this team. The foundation of the pitching staff is starting to crack and crumble.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The pitching staff is starting to crack and crumble, or Bailey is cracking and crumbling?

 

The Red Sox have a 4.16 ERA in June. Of the 91 ER allowed this month, 8 have been allowed by Bailey.

 

Without Bailey, the rest of the Sox have a combined 3.95 ERA in June.

 

A 4.16 ERA is a solid ERA for an entire staff, particularly through the toughest part of the schedule.

 

I would hardly say that the staff is starting to crumble. I would certainly like to see another high caliber SP, and for Buchholz to return to the rotation, but this pitching staff has very much stepped up and done it's job, outside of Andrew Bailey.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And if you want to argue that the foundation is the part crumbling, I would absolutely argue against that too.

 

Dempster: 3.71 ERA in June

Lackey: 3.16 ERA in June

Doubront: 2.73 ERA in June

 

Lester has bombed badly in June, and Buchholz has been hurt. But the rest of the rotation has certainly picked up their slack.

 

Aceves is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in place of Buchholz, who went 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in June.

 

I just don't see your point here. Injuries happen. The Sox have had Aceves pick up Buchholz big time. Webster got hit hard, but those are the lumps you have to swallow with young pitchers. Not everyone has Steven Strasburg waiting in the wings who just seamlessly transitions into the bigs.

[a700hitter]

And if you want to argue that the foundation is the part crumbling, I would absolutely argue against that too.

 

Dempster: 3.71 ERA in June

Lackey: 3.16 ERA in June

Doubront: 2.73 ERA in June

 

Lester has bombed badly in June, and Buchholz has been hurt. But the rest of the rotation has certainly picked up their slack.

 

Aceves is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in place of Buchholz, who went 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in June.

 

I just don't see your point here. Injuries happen. The Sox have had Aceves pick up Buchholz big time. Webster got hit hard, but those are the lumps you have to swallow with young pitchers. Not everyone has Steven Strasburg waiting in the wings who just seamlessly transitions into the bigs.

Yes, I do think that they pitching is starting to crack and crumble, emphasis on "starting to." Lester has turned into a pumpkin, and I don't think it will get much better. Buchholz is on the DL. We have to hope that whatever this injury is that it doesn't linger. Without those two guys anchoring the top of the rotation, the pitching staff will be tremendously stressed and the pen will get overused and burn out. Morales is in the midst of a lost season. Bailey was a waste. Hanrahan made a guest appearance. Yes, if you look at the staff with a critical eye, the cracks are quite noticeable. Lackey is holding up his end, and we will need him to continue to do so. Doubront will have to stay strong too.

[a700hitter]

The foundation of the Red Sox staff is Lester and Buchholz IMO.

[mvp 78]

@nickcafardo: Andrew Bailey does have minor league options remaining so the Red Sox could send him down if he needs to work out his recent mound issues .

[a700hitter]

Maybe Bailey will get sent down and room with Bard.

[a700hitter]

Rooming with Bard (when he gets off the DL) might help Bailey.

 

Bard is slumping in 13 appearances with Double-A Portland. He’s got a 6.39 ERA, 2.368 WHIP, and a staggering 12.1 BB/9.

[a700hitter]

And Bard is making $1.8 million this season.

[Dojji]

The edit button is your friend a700

[Dojji]

No really. It is.

[a700hitter]

No really. It is.

Sometimes it isn't worth the effort.

[Bellhorn04]

@nickcafardo: Andrew Bailey does have minor league options remaining so the Red Sox could send him down if he needs to work out his recent mound issues .

 

That does have a cheeriness that is reminiscent of what they said about Bard when they sent him down 'to find consistency'.

[mvp 78]

That does have a cheeriness that is reminiscent of what they said about Bard when they sent him down 'to find consistency'.

 

I'm not sure Cafardo has ever been mistaken for cheerful.

[jung]

I think it could be the beginnings of the pitching staff cracking and crumbling but I really don't think we are there yet and nobody here would likely call me a rose colored glasses sort of fellow.

 

The argument that it is the beginnings could be made mainly based on the fact that the most critical linchpin to the rotation, Buch, has an injury that has already "lingered". So it is not an issue of whether it will linger. It is now an issue of when the hell is he coming back and having been away for so long what the hell is he going to pitch like when and if he gets back. Conversely you could argue that it is not the beginnings IMO because If Buch comes back in good shape I really think we can say that Lackey makes up for Lester and solidly moves into the spot behind Buch as our second best starting pitcher.

 

Why Lackey?...for me it is because of the quality of his pitches AND the quality of his sequences. Nobody other than Buch combines those two elements to the degree that Lackey has so far. I have been very impressed with that. Dempster is either down in the zone or he is not. Not = walks and bombs and he gets enough of that during the course of a game to make it hard for me to put him in the spot behind Buch. Felix simply cannot get enough innings coupled with a propensity to give up runs early. Give me one or the other Felix but don't give me early runs AND early exits. Lester is into another of his blue funk periods and there is no telling when he will come out of it or even if he will. But as I said earlier, if Buch does come back and comes back strong I think Buch/Lackey just about equals the early season Buch/Lester. That still leaves us looking for one more solid starter though. He does not have to be spectacular although that would not be a bad thing. Just give me solid. Without one more we are stuck on pins and needles wondering who is next with more than half a season to go.

 

Lester is the worry. He may have a hard time turning this around mainly because of what goes on between his ears. Funny how there is all this talk of trying to get Bailey to regain confidence when in fact I believe his issues are physical and that it will end up being a situation where he is really all but done when in fact it is Lester that needs the sports phycologist work over. With Lester you can see his mood swing from pitch to pitch once he gets into one of these periods. First he tries to be way too fine with his pitches when he is into one of these periods. He does not even attempt to work on and off the plate but will continually fixate on hitting the edge of the black...never mind just being content with the black . He has to have the edge of the black or he is a nervous wreck. He will go along like that....finding himself more and more often behind in counts as a result. Then some hitter will crank one up maybe for a HR or an extra base hit. If he is in one of these blue funks of his when somebody cranks one he may not throw another strike for 6 pitches before he finally regains some semblance of composure. While his approach to pitching is completely different when compared to Felix, Lester ends up with remarkably Felix-like situations when this happens to him. Much like Felix when Jon does this he ends up staring at 110 pitches in 5 innings or some such nonsense number like that having arrived there in an entirely different manner than Felix would have gotten there.

 

Lester has always seemed to me the Sox pitcher most likely to try hypnosis as so many pitchers have in the past. Then we can be treated to the spectacle of Jon turning around and looking out at the jumbo-tron at just the wrong moment, imitating whatever he sees up there until somebody comes out and escorts him to the clubhouse for a flip side visit with the hypnotist. "I am going to count to ten Jon and then you will cackle like a rooster...no forget that.....I am going to count to ten and you are going to awaken refreshed and happy...one....two....three:blink:

[Bellhorn04]

Papelbon's blown saves for 2013:

 

June 17 #1

June 19 #2

June 22 #3

June 24 #4

 

[a700hitter]

Papelbon's blown saves for 2013:

 

June 17 #1

June 19 #2

June 22 #3

June 24 #4

 

He has had a s*****, but his 3rs BS was caused by an error and last night he came in with men on 2nd and 3rd with no one out. The Papelbon of his prime blows away the next 3 batters. Maybe we can get him cheap. Even a diminished Paps is a ton better than what we have.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He has had a s*****, but his 3rs BS was caused by an error and last night he came in with men on 2nd and 3rd with no one out. The Papelbon of his prime blows away the next 3 batters. Maybe we can get him cheap. Even a diminished Paps is a ton better than what we have.

 

You do realize that the Phillies had a 3 run lead last night, so regardless of whether or not he came in with men on 1st and 2nd, the tying run was not on base. He still allowed both baserunners to score as well as an additional batter of his own.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And just to be clear, the only reason that I even talk about Papelbon's blown saves is because it really seems like the people who are pro-Papelbon, or pro-trading for Papelbon, think that the guy is invincible and will never blow a save again.

 

Everytime the Sox blow a save it's like "Oh, well, if we had Papelbon we win this game". That's very clearly not the case. Yes, he was an excellent closer when he was with us, but he's certainly not invincible, he's going to blow his saves too.

 

I'm not arguing for or against trading him, I'm just saying things aren't so black and white, and outcomes with Papelbon here aren't always going to be different.

[a700hitter]

You do realize that the Phillies had a 3 run lead last night, so regardless of whether or not he came in with men on 1st and 2nd, the tying run was not on base. He still allowed both baserunners to score as well as an additional batter of his own.

As I said, Paps in his prime blows away 3 batters in a row. This Paps gave up a single and hit a batter, but the tying run did score on a passed ball with 2 outs. Hopefully, his struggles have lowered his price.

[Station 13]

@nickcafardo: Andrew Bailey does have minor league options remaining so the Red Sox could send him down if he needs to work out his recent mound issues .

 

Not a terrible idea. It's a 10 day minimum stay in the minors once he is optioned. 10 days to get his s*** together.

[a700hitter]

And just to be clear, the only reason that I even talk about Papelbon's blown saves is because it really seems like the people who are pro-Papelbon, or pro-trading for Papelbon, think that the guy is invincible and will never blow a save again.

 

Everytime the Sox blow a save it's like "Oh, well, if we had Papelbon we win this game". That's very clearly not the case. Yes, he was an excellent closer when he was with us, but he's certainly not invincible, he's going to blow his saves too.

 

I'm not arguing for or against trading him, I'm just saying things aren't so black and white, and outcomes with Papelbon here aren't always going to be different.

SFF, no one has made the argument that he is invincible. He is very consistent from year to year. Youi can practically pencil in his numbers. A bad fielding team assisted in his last 2 blown saves with unearned runs. His K numbers are down right now, but I think he will adjust after these struggles and put up Papelbon numbers.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, no one has made the argument that he is invincible. He is very consistent from year to year. Youi can practically pencil in his numbers. A bad fielding team assisted in his last 2 blown saves with unearned runs. His K numbers are down right now, but I think he will adjust after these struggles and put up Papelbon numbers.

 

There is a very large implication that Papelbon is invincible when everytime the Red Sox blow a save, Papelbon comes back up.

 

His K numbers are down, and not just down, we're talking like down by over 3 K/9. That's substaintial. His FIP and xFIP are at career high numbers, his BABIP (.218) is 56 points below his career average (.274), and he's much more HR prone.

 

Not to mention, hitters are swinging at less pitches out of the zone than they have since 2009, so he's not fooling as many hitters, and the swings they put on pitches in the zone are getting hit more frequently than anytime in his career outside of 2010.

 

His stuff isn't as good as it used to be, and he's not the same pitcher as he used to be.

 

Again, not arguing one way or the other, just making sure all the facts are known.

[a700hitter]

There is a very large implication that Papelbon is invincible when everytime the Red Sox blow a save, Papelbon comes back up.

 

His K numbers are down, and not just down, we're talking like down by over 3 K/9. That's substaintial. His FIP and xFIP are at career high numbers, his BABIP (.218) is 56 points below his career average (.274), and he's much more HR prone.

 

Not to mention, hitters are swinging at less pitches out of the zone than they have since 2009, so he's not fooling as many hitters, and the swings they put on pitches in the zone are getting hit more frequently than anytime in his career outside of 2010.

 

His stuff isn't as good as it used to be, and he's not the same pitcher as he used to be.

 

Again, not arguing one way or the other, just making sure all the facts are known.

It's your interpretation that people are saying his invincible. I am not getting that at all. Even a diminished Papelbon, would not blow up a game the way Bailey does. Paps usually needs some help from a fielding error or a seeing eye base hit. He has given up HRs at a higher rate than usual, but I think he is a guy who will figure it out and adjust. He's not invincible. He's consistent and reliable, not invincible. That's what has made him a great closer.