Lester's Future

[jung]

And another thing posters are conveniently forgetting is that it has been reported that the medical opinion is that "Buch cannot hurt the injury worse by pitching" CANNOT hurt the injury worse by pitching.

 

Having not pitched since June 8th and having now suffered what at least he considers to be yet another set back does mean he will have to go through another process of strengthening his arm in order to pitch again this year. This last set-back to my mind was the straw that broke the camel's back as he will simply have been away and inactive too long.

 

For a guy as fragile as Buch, just the process of strengthening his arm again can go awry and he is at risk for additional injury unrelated to the first injury just going through that process. Clearly at the start of this season Buch was at his peak having never pitched that well for such a long stretch at any time in his history...hence I think it highly unlikely that he will come back that good even if he successfully goes through the process or preparing to be a ML pitcher again this season. We had him at his best ever and whether we want to admit it or not, he will not likely be that same guy after what will at minimum now be a two month hiatus. If he goes though yet another week of this screwing around, we will be looking at more like a 2.5 month hiatus before he can be ready to take the mound again.

 

I will totally grant that the team has done well in his absence which has in part saved Buch from criticism. However, now that it has gone on this long, fans unwillingness to deal with the reality of such a long stretch of inactivity are simply putting their heads in the sand. As I said earlier given Lester's problems, that is an issue. Felix plus Lackey do not make up for the Buch and Lester combination that we had at the start of the season. Call it ranting if you want. Come back and tell me that when we are truly dealing with this issue later this year. I would put the chances that we won't be dealing with this issue in a negative sense at less than 10% at this point given Buch's history of fragility. Take the one 29 start season away and Buch has averaged about 14 starts per year. Add the 29 start season back in and he has averaged more like 18 or 19 starts.....hardly a horse.

[a700hitter]

And another thing posters are conveniently forgetting is that it has been reported that the medical opinion is that "Buch cannot hurt the injury worse by pitching" CANNOT hurt the injury worse by pitching.

 

Having not pitched since June 8th and having now suffered what at least he considers to be yet another set back does mean he will have to go through another process of strengthening his arm in order to pitch again this year. This last set-back to my mind was the straw that broke the camel's back as he will simply have been away and inactive too long.

 

For a guy as fragile as Buch, just the process of strengthening his arm again can go awry and he is at risk for additional injury unrelated to the first injury just going through that process. Clearly at the start of this season Buch was at his peak having never pitched that well for such a long stretch at any time in his history...hence I think it highly unlikely that he will come back that good even if he successfully goes through the process or preparing to be a ML pitcher again this season. We had him at his best ever and whether we want to admit it or not, he will not likely be that same guy after what will at minimum now be a two month hiatus. If he goes though yet another week of this screwing around, we will be looking at more like a 2.5 month hiatus before he can be ready to take the mound again.

 

I will totally grant that the team has done well in his absence which has in part saved Buch from criticism. However, now that it has gone on this long, fans unwillingness to deal with the reality of such a long stretch of inactivity are simply putting their heads in the sand. As I said earlier given Lester's problems, that is an issue. Felix plus Lackey do not make up for the Buch and Lester combination that we had at the start of the season. Call it ranting if you want. Come back and tell me that when we are truly dealing with this issue later this year. I would put the chances that we won't be dealing with this issue in a negative sense at less than 10% at this point given Buch's history of fragility. Take the one 29 start season away and Buch has averaged about 14 starts per year. Add the 29 start season back in and he has averaged more like 18 or 19 starts.....hardly a horse.

Your concerns are completely valid, and I share them. This is so reminiscent of 2008 with Beckett. Dismissing this situation, because we are playing great without him would be putting our heads in the sand. In the playoffs, you need a #1 if you want your best chance of going deep into the post season. He is our #1. If he can't comeback to where he was before the injury, that spells trouble. I agree that this prolonged absence leaves him vulnerable to another injury due to the deterioration in his game conditioning and that worries me. If we pick up Cliff Lee, most of these concerns and worries go away, but I don't see that happening.

[User Name]

The problem with 2008 Beckett was throwing him out there before he was ready because of the playoff push. Now you are complaining about the Red Sox not wanting a repeat of 2008 Beckett. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

Let him take all the time he needs as long as he's 100% come crunch time. Because he's fragile they gotta take extra precautions, which is the logical course of action. All of this ranting is unnecessary.

[a700hitter]

The problem with 2008 Beckett was throwing him out there before he was ready because of the playoff push. Now you are complaining about the Red Sox not wanting a repeat of 2008 Beckett. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

Let him take all the time he needs as long as he's 100% come crunch time. Because he's fragile they gotta take extra precautions, which is the logical course of action. All of this ranting is unnecessary.

They let Beckett take all the time he needed. He went through the same progression as Bucholz throwing off flat ground etc. My recollection is that he even had one or two rehab starts. At this point in the season it is very difficult to build arm strength in game conditions. He has already said that he will be out there as soon as he feels good. My concern is not that he is not that he is taking too long to be ready, but rather that he will not be ready. He should take as long as it takes, but getting in game condition before throwing himself into the heat of competition will be very difficult. You are misreading my concerns. My concern is that after all this, he will not be in game condition and he will under perform, or worse get hurt. This is not a cake and eating it too situation.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not dismissing anything. I wish he was pitching sooner than later. But my position is that a) we don't have enough information to judge, and ranting is useless.

[Bellhorn04]

David Price went on the DL after his May 15 start. At that point he had a 5.24 ERA and a .811 OPS against in 9 starts.

 

He returned from the DL July 2. In his first 3 starts he has a 1.08 ERA and a .483 OPS against and has pitched 25 innings.

 

Conclusion: a period of game inactivity of 6-7 weeks doesn't necessarily cause bad things to happen...

[a700hitter]

David Price went on the DL after his May 15 start. At that point he had a 5.24 ERA and a .811 OPS against in 9 starts.

 

He returned from the DL July 2. In his first 3 starts he has a 1.08 ERA and a .483 OPS against and has pitched 25 innings.

 

Conclusion: a period of game inactivity of 6-7 weeks doesn't necessarily cause bad things to happen...

I don't think we can conclude that, and I think that the Rays are very very fortunate to have the All Star Break right after Price pitched back to back complete games.

[a700hitter]

I'm not dismissing anything. I wish he was pitching sooner than later. But my position is that a) we don't have enough information to judge, and ranting is useless.

You just dismissed it with your last post by concluding that since David Price has pitched 3 games after a prolonged layoff that it is not a problem. I wouldn't term Jung's post as a rant. It was a logical statement of his concerns.

[Bellhorn04]

I think I might be able to dig up some more examples of pitchers missing a month+ during a season and coming back strong...how many do we need?

[a700hitter]

I think I might be able to dig up some more examples of pitchers missing a month+ during a season and coming back strong...how many do we need?

And that will prove nothing. The danger of his arm being out of game condition will still be there.

[Bellhorn04]

You just dismissed it with your last post by concluding that since David Price has pitched 3 games after a prolonged layoff that it is not a problem. I wouldn't term Jung's post as a rant. It was a logical statement of his concerns.

 

I'm concerned about Buchholz, of course. But jung is saying things like 'Buch's season is down the drain'. To me he's overreacting.

[BSN07]

I think I might be able to dig up some more examples of pitchers missing a month+ during a season and coming back strong...how many do we need?

 

10 seems fair. And no Joe Blows, I wanna see names

[Bellhorn04]

And that will prove nothing. The danger of his arm being out of game condition will still be there.

 

Sure. But how do any of us know there wouldn't have been more danger by him coming back before this?

[a700hitter]

Sure. But how do any of us know there wouldn't have been more danger by him coming back before this?

We don't know that, but in light of past experience (i.e., Beckett 2008) the concern is valid. Any injury concern regarding Buchholz is valid at this point. He has not been very durable in his short career having experienced a mystery broken back and now a sleep induced neck, clavicle issue.

[a700hitter]

I'm concerned about Buchholz, of course. But jung is saying things like 'Buch's season is down the drain'. To me he's overreacting.

Well, his season is down the drain. He can come bck and really help the Sox make a major push through the playoffs, but his season is kind of shot. He'll put up around 140 innings if he is lucky-- not the kind of season that an ace stud has. I am not concerned that his season got screwed up as long as we can get him back fully healthy for the stretch drive and the palyoffs.

[dupree]

Well said.

 

Thats why i believe we need a top of the rotation ace. Lester is down again but i think he can turn it around. And Buch is too injury prone. Lacky Felix and Demp are all good supporting starters but i think we need a front of the rotation arm to put out there in Game 1 of any series and be able to believe after Game 1 we will be up 1-0. If Cliff Lee is anywhere available this team needs to go after him. I hope Buch can come back soon and give us some big innings this year.

[SoxSport]

Buchholz must be a complete uncertainty to them right now, and I would expect them to deal for another starter like Garza if they can get him without giving up any of their top 3 or 4 prospects. Epstein knows the Red Sox farm system, and he might take lower level types for him. They are at the top right now, and can't risk a slide because of starting pitching. The future is now.

[RedSoxNC84]

We don't know that, but in light of past experience (i.e., Beckett 2008) the concern is valid. Any injury concern regarding Buchholz is valid at this point. He has not been very durable in his short career having experienced a mystery broken back and now a sleep induced neck, clavicle issue.

 

 

The man got bursitis in his shoulder from sleeping. Makes you wonder how he can pitch without his arm exploding.

[dupree]

Lets just hope if we do trade for Garza that Theo wants low tier players. But since Theo knows the farm system as well as he does is why i think a trade with the Cubs will be so hard. But ya never know. Fingers crossed we get a deal done with someone.

[RedSoxNC84]

I'm concerned about Buchholz, of course. But jung is saying things like 'Buch's season is down the drain'. To me he's overreacting.

 

I doubt it's that bad, but he has missed a month and a half over this issue.

[RedSoxNC84]

Lets just hope if we do trade for Garza that Theo wants low tier players. But since Theo knows the farm system as well as he does is why i think a trade with the Cubs will be so hard. But ya never know. Fingers crossed we get a deal done with someone.

 

I don't think it'll happen like that. We probably could have gotten Feldman for that kind of haul, but not Garza.

 

Garza does have some success in the ALE, but IIRC he has a pretty spotty injury history as well..

[dupree]

Feldman would just been another mid tier pitcher like what we have in our rotation now. We are gonna have to give up someone with great potential to get the Ace that this club needs.

[italstallianion]

Ok I'm an ass but on Lester's facebook he linked a video talking about how he battled cancer, and I wanted to say if only he battled the lineups he faced the past few seasons the same way.

[jung]

The last time Buch pitched was June 8th. The next time he is scheduled to even try to throw is Thursday this week. So That is 40 days down and he will not be ready to pitch IF Thursday goes well. Six weeks down and if Thursday does goes well I would guess another three weeks to get back his arm strength. So assuming Thursday goes well, he will have three weeks of work that Buch will have to survive. Given his rather fragile nature, I would not have much confidence in Buch's ability to get through that process without another glitch occurring somewhere along the way. If he tried to rush three weeks into two, it just exacerbates the situation.

 

At the next level of concern, even if he survives three weeks of getting back to what he needs to be just to pitch ML ball, he started the season as strong and as capable as we have ever seen him. So even surviving, if he does, I don't hold out much hope that he will be that pitcher again this year anyway.

 

If Thursday goes well and every day after Thursday goes well Buch will have taken himself off the mound for 9 weeks minimum. If Thursday or any day after Thursday is a problem then you turn back the clock again to Thursday July 18th and start all over again.

 

This is why I would not have shut him down completely. Buch has just walked himself down this road that has basically destroyed his season.

 

If Buch continues to struggle with this thing, tossing him out there in the playoffs, having missed everything up to the playoffs is going to be the cut the cards gamble of all time.

 

So, based on how this has gone so far, would you bet that Buch will not suffer any further set backs through what will now be a fairly long process, much like ST? If he is incapable of hitting his self proclaimed mark (100%), would you toss him out there in the post season? If so, you would be riding on a wing and a prayer cause he would have missed too much time to depend on him at that point.

 

This is really my point. Buch has basically caused himself just as much and maybe more personal loss and will have cost the team in ways that will likely make it hard for him to continue here.

 

1) He has tossed what remained of his regular season down the drain. Nothing short of a miracle will recover that.

2) He has put post season participation in jeopardy especially if he does not take the mound until then as nobody should or would have confidence that he would just go out there and perform under those circumstances

3) He has put his entire career at risk since every right thinking GM will consider him a pitcher of great potential that simply cannot stay on the field. He will have been given years of rope all now wrapped around his neck and be in a pickle even worse than Josh Johnson's similar predicament.

4) He will likely force the Sox hand as far as his remaining a front line pitcher pitcher is concerned. This has been years now of the same thing over and over again.

 

Frankly, although his situation might only be marginally better, depending on what this damned injury actually is, his predicament could very well be better had he pitched cautiously through this period. He would not have to go through what in effect will be a second ST. He would have at least retained some level of respect from GM's along the lines of how they would feel about John Lackey now. Again unless I know what the damned injury actually is, I can't really say definitively one way or the other. However he is the guy that keeps talking about "discomfort" and "not feeling right". Does not sound all that dramatic to me. By the way I doubt this is a bursa sac injury. You CAN further damage a bursa sac by continuing to inflame the area. Doctors have already said he would not hurt it further throwing with it. So, it can't be a bursa sac injury.

 

The alternative of simply saying his season was over weeks ago was probably not considered because of a number of factors similar to those mentioned above. Buch has used up all his rope. Too many seasons of "same s***, different day".

Edited July 17, 2013 by jung

[Bellhorn04]

He has put his entire career at risk since every right thinking GM will consider him a pitcher of great potential that simply cannot stay on the field. He will have been given years of rope all now wrapped around his neck and be in a pickle even worse than Josh Johnson's similar predicament.

 

Frankly, although his situation might only be marginally better, depending on what this damned injury actually is, his predicament could very well be better had he pitched cautiously through this period. He would not have to go through what in effect will be a second ST. He would have at least retained some level of respect from GM's along the lines of how they would feel about John Lackey now.

 

jung, these statements are an example of how over the top and all over the place your posts on this are.

 

First of all, Buchholz is under the control of the Red Sox until 2017, which is 4+ years away, so it's a little early to be caring about what other GM's think.

 

Secondly, Josh Johnson's injury-prone reputation didn't stop the Jays from making the big move for him.

 

Thirdly, Johnson's current predicament is that his 2013 numbers are s*****, not that he's not on the field.

[User Name]

I wanted to comment on his post, but i honestly couldn't read it. jung, i like you as a poster, but you really need to make your posts a bit more concise so we can figure out exactly what you're trying to say. No disrespect meant.

[jung]

The proven successful formula in MLB is a solid 1/2 combination in the rotation. There are other ways to do it but that is what everybody aims to have. Had Lester and Buch proven out, especially this year, the Sox would have that at reasonable money. Instead Lester runs into his annual blue funk AGAIN and Buch runs into his annual injury issue AGAIN and that is the framework for what the Sox face.

 

Buch is about a year and a half away from serious consideration for contract extension...at what price if that is what the Sox want to do? They don't have to do it. If Buch was logging solid years they might do it to forestall Buch headed into FA after the 2017 season. Maybe he will turn it around in that period. That is what it will take now. In fact if I were the Sox I would not be interested in extension and let him play out his contract, signing him at the team option numbers as long as he does not suffer such a major physical meltdown along the way that it no longer even makes sense to pick up the 2017 option or maybe even the 2016 option. He makes so few starts on average and suffers such extended periods off the mound that even the 2016 option might be in jeopardy for him. This could have been a watershed year for him. Instead it turns into another short year. I said even before this year started that it was the "prove it" year for him. He is just putting too many short years in the bank and his 29 start season becomes an outlier just like Ells 32 HR season.

 

Those option years are right at the cusp of too much money for a guy that can only average less than 20 starts per year. It about forces the Sox hand unless Buch turns it around surely in 2014. The Sox would be better served pouring that money into a guy that has more of a chance to sit in the 1 or 2 hole for an entire year even if that guy costs more than $13M per. They might even be better served gambling on a guy that is working his way to the top of the rotation by then as again Buch will simply have put too many short years in his bank account. Lester's 2014 option will likely be easier for the Sox to pick up than Buch's 2016 option will be at this rate.

 

As far as my Johnson comment, I already said Buch's situation is not exactly the same as Johnson's but similar. We don't really know if this is healthy Johnson or once again injured Johnson, do we? Did we know Lackey was hurt. There is so much money at stake these days that the injury issue is getting to be as cloak and dagger in MLB as it is the NFL but for a different reason.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt Buchholz seems to be the pitching version of Ellsbury. Tons of talent but a very frustrating amount of missed time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wanted to comment on his post, but i honestly couldn't read it. jung, i like you as a poster, but you really need to make your posts a bit more concise so we can figure out exactly what you're trying to say. No disrespect meant.

 

....5 minutes later....

 

The proven successful formula in MLB is a solid 1/2 combination in the rotation. There are other ways to do it but that is what everybody aims to have. Had Lester and Buch proven out, especially this year, the Sox would have that at reasonable money. Instead Lester runs into his annual blue funk AGAIN and Buch runs into his annual injury issue AGAIN and that is the framework for what the Sox face.

 

Buch is about a year and a half away from serious consideration for contract extension...at what price if that is what the Sox want to do? They don't have to do it. If Buch was logging solid years they might do it to forestall Buch headed into FA after the 2017 season. Maybe he will turn it around in that period. That is what it will take now. In fact if I were the Sox I would not be interested in extension and let him play out his contract, signing him at the team option numbers as long as he does not suffer such a major physical meltdown along the way that it no longer even makes sense to pick up the 2017 option or maybe even the 2016 option. He makes so few starts on average and suffers such extended periods off the mound that even the 2016 option might be in jeopardy for him. This could have been a watershed year for him. Instead it turns into another short year. I said even before this year started that it was the "prove it" year for him. He is just putting too many short years in the bank and his 29 start season becomes an outlier just like Ells 32 HR season.

 

Those option years are right at the cusp of too much money for a guy that can only average less than 20 starts per year. It about forces the Sox hand unless Buch turns it around surely in 2014. The Sox would be better served pouring that money into a guy that has more of a chance to sit in the 1 or 2 hole for an entire year even if that guy costs more than $13M per. They might even be better served gambling on a guy that is working his way to the top of the rotation by then as again Buch will simply have put too many short years in his bank account. Lester's 2014 option will likely be easier for the Sox to pick up than Buch's 2016 option will be at this rate.

 

As far as my Johnson comment, I already said Buch's situation is not exactly the same as Johnson's but similar. We don't really know if this is healthy Johnson or once again injured Johnson, do we? Did we know Lackey was hurt. There is so much money at stake these days that the injury issue is getting to be as cloak and dagger in MLB as it is the NFL but for a different reason.

 

Jung - I agree w UN - I like reading your posts but they're often overwhelming in size and I end up not reading them because they're just too long.

[mvp 78]

It's not the length, it's that the posts are all over the place and it's nearly impossible to follow his line of reasoning. I agree that brevity would strengthen the points he's trying to make.